Pirates get Archer

[steveno89]

Just now, Jack Parkman said:

I hope the Sox can get a similar package for Rodon this winter. 

Given Rodon's spotty medical history and pretty questionable peripherals (4.36 FIP, 4.93 xFIP, .207 BABIP in 2018), I doubt the Sox will be able to move him for a strong return. 

I hate to rain on the Rodon parade, but it very much looks like he will be due for a large helping of regression coming up.

[steveno89]

1 minute ago, TheTruth05 said:

I don't like using this word so early in the trade but hard not to think the Rays fleeced the Pirates here. Archer is so meh for mortgaging that much control.

Not sure I would use the word "fleeced", as Meadows/Glasnow's stock are both down from where they were a year ago. 

Both still have good upside, but questions still remain about how likely either is to hit their ceiling. Baz is very far off sniffing the majors and is a risky prospect, Meadows needs to both perform and remain healthy, and Glasnow needs to display improved control over an extended period of time or he is nothing more than a bullpen arm. 

[Jack Parkman]

7 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

Given Rodon's spotty medical history and pretty questionable peripherals (4.36 FIP, 4.93 xFIP, .207 BABIP in 2018), I doubt the Sox will be able to move him for a strong return. 

I hate to rain on the Rodon parade, but it very much looks like he will be due for a large helping of regression coming up.

Crap, I didn't know his peripherals were that bad. As we saw with Lester, xFIP doesn't lie.

 

Edited August 14, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[TheTruth05]

5 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

Not sure I would use the word "fleeced", as Meadows/Glasnow's stock are both down from where they were a year ago. 

Both still have good upside, but questions still remain about how likely either is to hit their ceiling. Baz is very far off sniffing the majors and is a risky prospect, Meadows needs to both perform and remain healthy, and Glasnow needs to display improved control over an extended period of time or he is nothing more than a bullpen arm. 

That's why I said I was hesistant with the word but even if 2 of those 3 hit close to their ceiling then Rays won the trade. If all 3 do, they definitely fleeced Pitt

[steveno89]

Just now, Jack Parkman said:

Crap, I didn't know his peripherals were that bad. As we saw with Lester, xFIP doesn't lie.

 

Peripherals are not all knowing, as some pitchers have a tendency to outperform them regularly. What I like to look at is the general trends though. 

The .207 BABIP is simply not going to last, as anything below a .270 is either 1) Elite or 2) not sustainable long term. 

[Jack Parkman]

4 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

Peripherals are not all knowing, as some pitchers have a tendency to outperform them regularly. What I like to look at is the general trends though. 

The .207 BABIP is simply not going to last, as anything below a .270 is either 1) Elite or 2) not sustainable long term. 

They're correct probably about 90% of the time, the other 10% are pitchers like Mark Buehrle. In other words, they're pretty reliable. They don't account for outliers because they're outliers. Reynaldo Lopez is another good example of xFIP being reliable. 

Edited August 14, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[Balta1701]

18 minutes ago, TheTruth05 said:

That's why I said I was hesistant with the word but even if 2 of those 3 hit close to their ceiling then Rays won the trade. If all 3 do, they definitely fleeced Pitt

Right now I think Pittsburgh is to the point of saying that neither Meadows nor Glasnow are going to hit their potential while in Pittsburgh, so even then they'd be ok with the move. 

[Jose Abreu]

Coming from someone who thinks/has always thought that Chris Archer is very overrated, that's probably a fair return considering his contract. Meadows and Glasnow alone would've been light. Baz could end up being the true headliner. 

[frogsplash31]

I think Baz becomes the best player in this trade. I think the Pirates kind of viewed Meadows and Glasnow the same way the Nationals viewed Giolito. 

[GenericUserName]

Meadows and Glasnow have been really good with the Rays so far. If they can keep it up, this could be absolute robbery. 

[steveno89]

58 minutes ago, GenericUserName said:

Meadows and Glasnow have been really good with the Rays so far. If they can keep it up, this could be absolute robbery. 

That Pittsburgh gave up all three already likely tells you something about their internal projections for each player though. If you feel they have a strong chance of reaching their ceiling's then you are unlikely to move them. Idk why, but they must have soured on Baz to include him as a third piece in this deal. 

[GenericUserName]

6 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

That Pittsburgh gave up all three already likely tells you something about their internal projections for each player though. If you feel they have a strong chance of reaching their ceiling's then you are unlikely to move them. Idk why, but they must have soured on Baz to include him as a third piece in this deal. 

Yeah, but maybe their internal projections and philosophies aren't great. Some of the prospect analysts have been saying for a while now how Pit is one of the last teams telling pitchers to use more two seamers and sinkers while the rest of the league is going away from that. It was even reported that Glasnow threw a bunch more four seamers and higher in the zone in his first start with the Rays and was much more effective. I think the same thing happened with Gerrit Cole too. As for hitters, it looks like they have trouble helping guys tap into power and it looks like it might have effected Meadows as well. 

[SoxAce]

So I guess it's now too late to trade Fulmer for Glasnow?

[Chicago White Sox]

2 hours ago, TheTruth05 said:

I don't like using this word so early in the trade but hard not to think the Rays fleeced the Pirates here. Archer is so meh for mortgaging that much control.

They’re gambling on some post hype prospects.  Could work out well for them, but I also think it’s more likely Meadows & Glasnow never live up to their upside.  Reminds me a bit of the Sonny Gray trade and that one remains a huge question mark for Oakland.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

I wouldn't say it's a heist but it's a very solid return for Archer without a doubt. Makes me wonder what the WS could get for Rodon this offseason? I understand the durability concerns with Rodon but I think his value is very comparable to Archer's as we stand here on 8/15/18 and perhaps even surpasses Archer's value if he continues pitching well (and remains healthy) down the stretch this season. At this point, Rodon has far more upside than Archer, he's younger, he's cheaper, and his contract carries the same amount of team control. Yes, he's been less durable and has less of a track record but the ceiling is well above that of Archer at this point in their careers.  Would Sox fans be happy with that Pirates package for Archer? I think I'd want guys in lower to mid levels of the minors opoosed to AAA/MLB guys like Glasnow and Meadows but otherwise I think I'd be quite happy with that return.

[Jack Parkman]

3 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I wouldn't say it's a heist but it's a very solid return for Archer without a doubt. Makes me wonder what the WS could get for Rodon this offseason? I understand the durability concerns with Rodon but I think his value is very comparable to Archer's as we stand here on 8/15/18 and perhaps even surpasses Archer's value if he continues pitching well (and remains healthy) down the stretch this season. At this point, Rodon has far more upside than Archer, he's younger, he's cheaper, and his contract carries the same amount of team control. Yes, he's been less durable and has less of a track record but the ceiling is well above that of Archer at this point in their careers.  Would Sox fans be happy with that Pirates package for Archer? I think I'd want guys in lower to mid levels of the minors opoosed to AAA/MLB guys like Glasnow and Meadows but otherwise I think I'd be quite happy with that return.

I would have absolutely loved that package for Rodon. 

[Sticky Stuff]

28 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I wouldn't say it's a heist but it's a very solid return for Archer without a doubt. Makes me wonder what the WS could get for Rodon this offseason? I understand the durability concerns with Rodon but I think his value is very comparable to Archer's as we stand here on 8/15/18 and perhaps even surpasses Archer's value if he continues pitching well (and remains healthy) down the stretch this season. At this point, Rodon has far more upside than Archer, he's younger, he's cheaper, and his contract carries the same amount of team control. Yes, he's been less durable and has less of a track record but the ceiling is well above that of Archer at this point in their careers.  Would Sox fans be happy with that Pirates package for Archer? I think I'd want guys in lower to mid levels of the minors opoosed to AAA/MLB guys like Glasnow and Meadows but otherwise I think I'd be quite happy with that return.

There would have to be a couple of high end left-handed starters in the return for me to consider trading Rodon. 

 

I.e. Luis Gohara and Koby Allard, 2 of the 3 between MacKenzie Gore, Adrian Morejon and Logan Allen, Brendan McKay and Matthew Liberatore, or Jesus Luzardo and A.J. Puk

Edited August 15, 2018 by DH in the NL

[turnin' two]

On 8/14/2018 at 3:43 PM, Jack Parkman said:

Crap, I didn't know his peripherals were that bad. As we saw with Lester, xFIP doesn't lie.

 

Yes it does.  All the time.  Lester's peripherals were down because his stuff falling off.  Do I think Rodon is a mid 2 ERA pitcher, no probably not (though I wouldn't rule it out) so maybe his number come back a bit, but do I think he is a mid 4 ERA pitcher? No way in hell.  His stuff is too good, he motion is easy and repeatable.  I think this is the breakthrough season for Carlos.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

23 hours ago, DH in the NL said:

There would have to be a couple of high end left-handed starters in the return for me to consider trading Rodon. 

 

I.e. Luis Gohara and Koby Allard, 2 of the 3 between MacKenzie Gore, Adrian Morejon and Logan Allen, Brendan McKay and Matthew Liberatore, or Jesus Luzardo and A.J. Puk

A package involving Gohara and Allard with the Braves is certainly feasible for Rodon imo. Heck, if they win the division this year, they may be very interested in a controllable veteran starter for the next few years to help further solidify that rotation moving forward and maintain control of that division (especially if they let Sanchez walk which I'd expect). They could package Soroka/Wright and another pitching prospect for a big time RF with Markakis' free agency looming since they have great pitching depth in the minors.

Edited August 16, 2018 by JUSTgottaBELIEVE

[wrathofhahn]

Glasnow has been absolutely dominant since going back to the rotation

The question about this trade early was Glasnow longterm future is it reliever or a starter. Clearly the Rays feel he's a starter.

Rays were already winning the trade early with Glasnow before Baz now it looks like robbery.

Edited August 17, 2018 by wrathofhahn

[Jose Abreu]

1 hour ago, wrathofhahn said:

Glasnow has been absolutely dominant since going back to the rotation

The question about this trade early was Glasnow longterm future is it reliever or a starter. Clearly the Rays feel he's a starter.

Rays were already winning the trade early with Glasnow before Baz now it looks like robbery.

I wouldn't really call him a starter when he's throwing 4 innings per start. I know that's just what Tampa does but he's still essentially being used as an (effective) long reliever 

[wrathofhahn]

17 hours ago, Jose Abreu said:

I wouldn't really call him a starter when he's throwing 4 innings per start. I know that's just what Tampa does but he's still essentially being used as an (effective) long reliever 

Or they could be working up his PC back to a starter role. His first three starts were 48, 61, and 79 pitches and 3, 4, 5 innings.

Archer who was traded averaged 90-100 pitches to start. What you are talking about is mainly what they are attempting to do via relievers and rather then have a 5th starter with a 5ish ERA have that spot instead done by three relievers. It wouldn't work if they tried it every night. There isn't enough bullpen spots.

Edited August 18, 2018 by wrathofhahn

[footlongcomiskeydog]

So if we are declaring that the Ray's already won the Archer trade, then it is clear as day that Hahn got hosed on the Sale deal right??

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, footlongcomiskeydog said:

So if we are declaring that the Ray's already won the Archer trade, then it is clear as day that Hahn got hosed on the Sale deal right??

Lol...at this point you just sound like a bitter girlfriend.

[soxfan49]

2 hours ago, footlongcomiskeydog said:

So if we are declaring that the Ray's already won the Archer trade, then it is clear as day that Hahn got hosed on the Sale deal right??

Why don't you find a new team to cheer for? You seemingly have NOTHING positive to say about the organization.