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Cracks in trust the process


wrathofhahn
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Jose Altuve - international free agent signing in 2007

Dallas Keuchel - drafted 7th round in 2009

Marwin Gonzalez - acquired via trade in December 2011

George Springer - drafted 11th overall in 2011

Carlos Correa - drafted 1st overall in 2012

Lance McCullers Jr. - drafted 41st overall in 2012

Max Stassi - acquired via trade in February 2013

Tony Kemp - drafted 5th round in 2013

J.D. Davis - drafted 75th overall in 2014

Evan Gattis - acquired via trade in January 2015

Alex Bregman - drafted 2nd overall in 2015

Kyle Tucker - drafted 5th overall in 2015

Yulieski Gurriel - international free agent signing in 2016

Justin Verlander - acquired via trade in July 2017

Gerrit Cole - acquired via trade in January 2018

I didn't really look at the bullpen, but that's most of the Astros starting position players and rotation. All were acquired either through or as a result of internal development. In the cases of guys like Verlander and Cole, they had to have the prospects to trade to get them. This is also with at least 2 notable massive screwups along the way (letting J.D. Martinez go for nothing, drafting Mark Appel over Kris Bryant). They just won the World Series and are among the favorites to win this year. Trust. The. Process. We're in year 2. They're in year 7.

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23 hours ago, Dam8610 said:

Jose Altuve - international free agent signing in 2007

Dallas Keuchel - drafted 7th round in 2009

Marwin Gonzalez - acquired via trade in December 2011

George Springer - drafted 11th overall in 2011

Carlos Correa - drafted 1st overall in 2012

Lance McCullers Jr. - drafted 41st overall in 2012

Max Stassi - acquired via trade in February 2013

Tony Kemp - drafted 5th round in 2013

J.D. Davis - drafted 75th overall in 2014

Evan Gattis - acquired via trade in January 2015

Alex Bregman - drafted 2nd overall in 2015

Kyle Tucker - drafted 5th overall in 2015

Yulieski Gurriel - international free agent signing in 2016

Justin Verlander - acquired via trade in July 2017

Gerrit Cole - acquired via trade in January 2018

I didn't really look at the bullpen, but that's most of the Astros starting position players and rotation. All were acquired either through or as a result of internal development. In the cases of guys like Verlander and Cole, they had to have the prospects to trade to get them. This is also with at least 2 notable massive screwups along the way (letting J.D. Martinez go for nothing, drafting Mark Appel over Kris Bryant). They just won the World Series and are among the favorites to win this year. Trust. The. Process. We're in year 2. They're in year 7.

I would tend to agree with your points.  The major difference being the Astros replaced their front office before the start of the 2012 season.  So did the Cubs.  I'm not sure that the people who drove the car into the ditch can be counted on to tow it out of the ditch.

 

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29 minutes ago, Juschill said:

I would tend to agree with your points.  The major difference being the Astros replaced their front office before the start of the 2012 season.  So did the Cubs.  I'm not sure that the people who drove the car into the ditch can be counted on to tow it out of the ditch.

 

I mentioned this exact point a while back.  I have never understood how you can be confident in someone evaluating guys who are farther away from the major leagues if you have no confidence they can evaluate players currently playing in the major leagues or are very close.The other difference is both other teams concentrated on bats. These aren’t execs that just started. The patience isn’t going to be as much as it would be if they had changed regimes for the rebuild. That’s just natural. People loved Renteria last year because he wasn’t Ventura, although if the Sox played exactly the same, it would be more proof Ventura was an idiot. Louie had to leave the Bears after 9-7. It didn’t matter the next year they were worse , Lovie wasn’t coaching them. Then it didn’t matter John Fox didn’t win, Trestman wasn’t coaching. Bears fans won’t be nearly upset if they go 7-9 this year because there is a new coach. If they kept Fox and went 7-9, there would be outrage. So KW and RH, don’t have as big of honeymoon period as a new guy would.

There is no guarantee here. I have read so many times when discussing individual prospects how nothing is linear, yet rebuilds are all supposed to go like the Cubs and Astros.

Edited by Dick Allen
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17 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

I mentioned this exact point a while back.  I have never understood how you can be confident in someone evaluating guys who are farther away from the major leagues if you have no confidence they can evaluate players currently playing in the major leagues or are very close.The other difference is both other teams concentrated on bats. 

There is no guarantee here. I have read so many times when discussing individual prospects how nothing is linear, yet rebuilds are all supposed to go like the Cubs and Astros.

It depends how you feel about KW and RH roles.  Some of us believe KW let go of the reins years ago, others believe RH only got full autonomy when they blew it up and started moving players.

I'm not sure how I feel, but what I do know is RH appears to be in charge now and throughout his tenure, he has been the best part of the front office.  His talent acquisition has been spectacular so far and he was in charge of contracts under KW and the Sox are known for mostly good contracts.

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9 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

I mentioned this exact point a while back. The other difference is both other teams concentrated on bats. 

There is no guarantee here. I have read so many times when discussing individual prospects how nothing is linear, yet rebuilds are all supposed to go like the Cubs and Astros.

I think there is a huge misconception that our rebuild is pitching oriented.  Moncada, Jimenez, Robert, Madrigal, & Anderson all were or currently are top 50 prospects (and in some cases much higher).  Collins, Adolfo, Basabe, & Rutherford are all cracking some top 100 lists.  Had Burger not messed up his ACL he’d likely be another high regarded positional prospect in the system.  If it weren’t for the Eaton trade I think most people would view our system as being pretty balanced.

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5 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I think there is a huge misconception that our rebuild is pitching oriented.  Moncada, Jimenez, Robert, Madrigal, & Anderson all were or currently are top 50 prospects (and in some cases much higher).  Collins, Adolfo, Basabe, & Rutherford are all cracking some top 100 lists.  Had Burger not messed up his ACL he’d likely be another high regarded positional prospect in the system.  If it weren’t for the Eaton trade I think most people would view our system as being pretty balanced.

Theo and Ludnow in all probability would not have traded Eaton for 3 pitchers. It is a different rebuild.  They definitely concentrated on position players. The Sox are not emphasizing that. The Cubs and Astros didn’t have anywhere near a Sale, Eaton and Q and their contracts to acquire prospects. That alone should make the Sox timeline a lot shorter than theirs.

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7 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Theo and Ludnow in all probability would not have traded Eaton for 3 pitchers. It is a different rebuild.  They definitely concentrated on position players. The Sox are not emphasizing that. The Cubs and Astros didn’t have anywhere near a Sale, Eaton and Q and their contracts to acquire prospects. That alone should make the Sox timeline a lot shorter than theirs.

You're definitely right about the pitching situation.  The Cubs might actually be getting to the point where they might regret some of the lack of pitching in their rebuild.  They really have nothing to trade for pitchers anymore.  I suppose for them the good news is they can buy pitching but even they have a budget.

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4 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Theo and Ludnow in all probability would not have traded Eaton for 3 pitchers. It is a different rebuild.  They definitely concentrated on position players. The Sox are not emphasizing that. The Cubs and Astros didn’t have anywhere near a Sale, Eaton and Q and their contracts to acquire prospects. That alone should make the Sox timeline a lot shorter than theirs.

The Cubs were obviously extremely positional focused, I don’t disagree there.  I’m not sure I agree with you on timeline though.  Our system was horrific before those trades.  Yes we acquired a significant amount of talent in a short period of time, but otherwise our system was barren.  I don’t see why our timeline should be that much shorter than theirs.

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4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

The Cubs were obviously extremely positional focused, I don’t disagree there.  I’m not sure I agree with you on timeline though.  Our system was horrific before those trades.  Yes we acquired a significant amount of talent in a short period of time, but otherwise our system was barren.  I don’t see why our timeline should be that much shorter than theirs.

Because no team in baseball currently has more payroll flexibility, the LUIS Robert acquisition, starting off with three huge infusions of talent...and the fact that 80% of the division is now or soon will be (Minnesota) in various stages of rebuilding/retooling.

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20 minutes ago, AustinIllini said:

You're definitely right about the pitching situation.  The Cubs might actually be getting to the point where they might regret some of the lack of pitching in their rebuild.  They really have nothing to trade for pitchers anymore.  I suppose for them the good news is they can buy pitching but even they have a budget.

Yes, because of Darvish and Heyward, and Lester to a certain extent.

Yet they’re scared to death to trade a combination of Schwarber, Happ, Russell and Almora (for deGrom) because their big league depth and versatility would take a huge hit.  Not to mention chemistry concerns with shaking the clubhouse up. Finally, Zobrist is near the end of his career and Bote is certainly a useful guy but not the centerpiece for a Cole or Verlander type of deal.

As much as they want Harper, starting pitching and shoring up the pen are even more critical the next 2-3 years.  And obviously health.

Edited by caulfield12
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33 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Theo and Ludnow in all probability would not have traded Eaton for 3 pitchers. It is a different rebuild.  They definitely concentrated on position players. The Sox are not emphasizing that. The Cubs and Astros didn’t have anywhere near a Sale, Eaton and Q and their contracts to acquire prospects. That alone should make the Sox timeline a lot shorter than theirs.

I think the culture in baseball has changed since then. For prospects, there's more of an emphasis on hitting than pitching, even when compared to just 4 or 5 years ago.

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11 minutes ago, AustinIllini said:

You're definitely right about the pitching situation.  The Cubs might actually be getting to the point where they might regret some of the lack of pitching in their rebuild.  They really have nothing to trade for pitchers anymore.  I suppose for them the good news is they can buy pitching but even they have a budget.

I actually went out to dinner last night with a buddy who’s a diehard Cubs fan and we were talking about this.  Theo obviously deserves a ton of credit for the amount of talent he acquired in a short period of time, but completely ignoring the pitching side of things & not having a pipeline of arms has cost him a bit.  He’s had to give up some serious ammo & overspend in free agency to fill holes on the pitching staff.  Now they have a bottom five farm system and much less financial flexibility to solve for problems going forward.

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46 minutes ago, AustinIllini said:

It depends how you feel about KW and RH roles.  Some of us believe KW let go of the reins years ago, others believe RH only got full autonomy when they blew it up and started moving players.

I'm not sure how I feel, but what I do know is RH appears to be in charge now and throughout his tenure, he has been the best part of the front office.  His talent acquisition has been spectacular so far and he was in charge of contracts under KW and the Sox are known for mostly good contracts.

But all the FA moves the Sox have made since Dunn have been universally panned...except for Swarzak, Albers for a half season...basically, the headline moves.   That, and the Shields trade, continue to haunt him, although he mysteriously gets a free pass from nearly everyone for “being forced” to add Shields by KW.

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7 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I actually went out to dinner last night with a buddy who’s a diehard Cubs fan and we were talking about this.  Theo obviously deserves a ton of credit for the amount of talent he acquired in a short period of time, but completely ignoring the pitching side of things & not having a pipeline of arms has cost him a bit.  He’s had to give up some serious ammo & overspend in free agency to fill holes on the pitching staff.  Now they have a bottom five farm system and much less financial flexibility to solve for problems going forward.

But the Cardinals are (soon to be) rebuilding and the Brewers have proven to be unwilling to take that huge “over the top” move to pull even with the Cubs (like Sabathia or Greinke).  Where are Pirates now, with the curious Archer/Kela moves after dumping Cutch and Cole and pissing off their fanbase?  Their attendance is close to ours even with that recent hot streak.  And I’m pretty think sure had at least one midweek crowd of just 20000ish in the heart of the summer vs. the Cubs last week.  

In the end, they still have 3 if not 4 years of that window wide open.  The only thing that can truly derail it would be major injuries to Bryant, Baez or Contreras.

Now the starting pitching is THE issue if you’re matching up with the four best AL teams, but the Dodgers are the only other NL team right now with a bigger budget.

 

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1 hour ago, AustinIllini said:

It depends how you feel about KW and RH roles.  Some of us believe KW let go of the reins years ago, others believe RH only got full autonomy when they blew it up and started moving players.

I'm not sure how I feel, but what I do know is RH appears to be in charge now and throughout his tenure, he has been the best part of the front office.  His talent acquisition has been spectacular so far and he was in charge of contracts under KW and the Sox are known for mostly good contracts.

Is it possible they actually work together as co workers and value each other's opinions?

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22 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

But all the FA moves the Sox have made since Dunn have been universally panned...except for Swarzak, Albers for a half season...basically, the headline moves.   That, and the Shields trade, continue to haunt him, although he mysteriously gets a free pass from nearly everyone for “being forced” to add Shields by KW.

Do you really think so little of Hahn that he would complete a trade that he absolutely didn't want to do and was forced to do? Why would someone work in that environment?

Maybe it's the Sith Ken Vader imposing his force will on Hahn Solo to do his bidding.

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12 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Do you really think so little of Hahn that he would complete a trade that he absolutely didn't want to do and was forced to do? Why would someone work in that environment?

Maybe it's the Sith Ken Vader imposing his force will on Hahn Solo to do his bidding.

And that’s why I question Hahn more than Williams...KW gets the blame for all the bad moves, but none of the credit for Abreu, Eaton, Quintana, Sale, etc.

That’s pretty convenient.

So we are left to ponder how any reasonable GM’s could think Shields would put them over the top...or value the money/subsidy coming back from the Padres more than having a handle on his own farm system that he could be outscouted by Preller so badly.

We simply can’t afford those types of mistakes that the Cubs, Astros, Yankees, Red Sox and Dodgers can get away with.

It’s also impossible for me to imagine if their colors were reversed that “black Hahn” would be nearly as universally-lauded as he is today.  So yeah, the timidity to question Hahn more than KW underscores how fragile this rebuild really is if we just overlook at the “bad” moves and blame all those judgments on KW or Reinsdorf.

Edited by caulfield12
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12 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Do you really think so little of Hahn that he would complete a trade that he absolutely didn't want to do and was forced to do? Why would someone work in that environment?

Maybe it's the Sith Ken Vader imposing his force will on Hahn Solo to do his bidding.

If Rick Hahn truly did not believe in the moves he was making in 2013, 2015, and 2016 and he was being overruled by the president of baseball operations, he should have resigned. He'd have probably improved his reputation rather than shredding it, and would have wound up with someone else in a top role soon enough.

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26 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

If Rick Hahn truly did not believe in the moves he was making in 2013, 2015, and 2016 and he was being overruled by the president of baseball operations, he should have resigned. He'd have probably improved his reputation rather than shredding it, and would have wound up with someone else in a top role soon enough.

I agree. In fact, one blunder,  the Jeff Keppinger signing, was actually all Hahn. KW was opposed but agreed to let it happen.  Hahn has said this and called it a learning moment. There aren't 2 teams here, Hahn for the good moves, KW for the blunders. That is someone's fantasy. They are all complicit .  The reality is for good or bad, this is probably the only franchise in MLB who would have given these guys this opportunity with their recent track records.

Edited by Dick Allen
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14 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

If Rick Hahn truly did not believe in the moves he was making in 2013, 2015, and 2016 and he was being overruled by the president of baseball operations, he should have resigned. He'd have probably improved his reputation rather than shredding it, and would have wound up with someone else in a top role soon enough.

You mean he would have gotten another GM job with a relatively unblemished reputation...?

I wonder where SoxTalk would rank him as of today as a GM?  15-20?  21-25?  It’s hard to imagine Bottom 5, but there’s not much compelling evidence he has been “objectively better than his peers” either, unless you count puff piece articles.  The Indians definitely have done the best job in the division...and that coincided with bringing Francona into the fold.  Moore got KC into consecutive World Series.  

Judging by wins per payroll dollar allocated, the results would be pretty darned abysmal.

Finally, who is really choosing our managers?  That’s yet another big issue for the Sox since 2011.

Edited by caulfield12
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1 minute ago, Dick Allen said:

I agree. In fact, one blunder,  the Jeff Keppinger signing, was actually all Hahn. KW was opposed but agreed to let it happen.  Hahn has said this and called it a learning moment. There aren't 2 teams here, Hahn for the good moves, KW for the blunders. That is someone's fantasy. They are all complicent.  The reality is for good or bad, this is probably the only franchise in MLB who would have given these guys this opportunity with their recent track records.

Complicit and complacent both could work equally as well here...

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7 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

You mean he would have gotten another GM job with a relatively unblemished reputation...?

I wonder where SoxTalk would rank him as of today as a GM?  15-20?  21-25?  It’s hard to imagine Bottom 5, but there’s not much compelling evidence he has been “objectively better than his peers” either, unless you count puff piece articles.  The Indians definitely have done the best job in the division...and that coincided with bringing Francona into the fold.  Moore got KC into consecutive World Series.  

Based on the entirety of his tenure I would rank Rick Hahn's performance as GM as the worst in baseball and I don't think it's even close. We will never again see a GM do what he did - insist for 3 years that he has a competitive roster, spend lots of money, sacrifice future seasons, and fail so spectacularly again and again and again, because 28 or 29 other franchises would have fired him at least 3 times, and the majority would have fired him 4 or more. The only reason I'm not putting him below Hawk Harrelson as the worst in franchise history is getting those 3 extensions done. He has one last shot to turn around his reputation and that's for the talent he acquired using those players he extended to break out and carry this team to multiple pennant races and a trophy. If we're looking at a bunch of busts in 2020 and 2021 then I will call rick Hahn the worst GM baseball will ever see.

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22 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

If Rick Hahn truly did not believe in the moves he was making in 2013, 2015, and 2016 and he was being overruled by the president of baseball operations, he should have resigned. He'd have probably improved his reputation rather than shredding it, and would have wound up with someone else in a top role soon enough.

Agreed. That why all of the success or failures  are for the front office. Hahn doesn't make all of the good decisions while KW make all of the bad ones. If the rebuild doesn't work, they both should go. Since Hahn has the GM role he is responsible more for the MLB club and transactions as KW has other responsibility to the minors as well.

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14 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Based on the entirety of his tenure I would rank Rick Hahn's performance as GM as the worst in baseball and I don't think it's even close. We will never again see a GM do what he did - insist for 3 years that he has a competitive roster, spend lots of money, sacrifice future seasons, and fail so spectacularly again and again and again, because 28 or 29 other franchises would have fired him at least 3 times, and the majority would have fired him 4 or more. The only reason I'm not putting him below Hawk Harrelson as the worst in franchise history is getting those 3 extensions done. He has one last shot to turn around his reputation and that's for the talent he acquired using those players he extended to break out and carry this team to multiple pennant races and a trophy. If we're looking at a bunch of busts in 2020 and 2021 then I will call rick Hahn the worst GM baseball will ever see.

Hahn deserves plenty of blame for many of the moves he made, but this is overly harsh and quite frankly a bit ridiculous.  Rick Hahn does NOT get to decide the direction of the club on his own.  That’s heavily influenced by a man named Jerry Reinsdorf and we all know very well his desire to win but not go above & beyond in terms of resources & risk taking has hurt this franchise tremendously.  It’s very clear, at least in my opinion, that we’re finally seeing a direction that Hahn is pushing for.  And quite frankly, it’s the path we needed to go down given the state the franchise was in.  Having said that, it remains to be seen if Hahn can actually execute the moves to complete a rebuild.  The first set of trades were fantastic IMO, but now comes the hard part.

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