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Narvaez - what’s the ceiling here?


Greg Hibbard
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I buried the same post at the end of the game thread, but my crude math Narvaez is now .368/.428/.547/.975 since June 1? Can that be correct???

I’ve been mostly writing off this hot streak because he’s typically not a power guy so I would expect any slump to have a severe effect on his OPS. However, the dude is just 26 and has now shown pretty good consistency with average across almost 200 games and 620 PAs, his power seems to be incrementally improving. 

What do people think the ceiling is here offensively and defensively?

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26 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

I buried the same post at the end of the game thread, but my crude math Narvaez is now .368/.428/.547/.975 since June 1? Can that be correct???

I’ve been mostly writing off this hot streak because he’s typically not a power guy so I would expect any slump to have a severe effect on his OPS. However, the dude is just 26 and has now shown pretty good consistency with average across almost 200 games and 620 PAs, his power seems to be incrementally improving. 

 What do people think the ceiling is here offensively and defensively?

Defensively, N/A. Maybe a 1B/DH who can fill in at catcher a few times a month at most, barring major improvements.

Offensively, this is probably mostly legit. I was a big fan of his last year, as a .373 OBP from the catcher position is actually elite. But if he moves off catcher, the value goes down. However, since his power has gone up, I do think he could actually be a viable 1B/DH platoon guy down the road. Maybe he's a trade chip.

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This guy is quietly putting together a monster season at the plate. If he can amount to a modified version of Carlos Santana (Indians version- less power but higher AVG and OBP), that would be fantastic. Teach him some first base and between two 1B, C, and DH, they could find plenty of opportunities for him on the next playoff contending team if the bat continues to play like this.

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Offensively: he can be a starter. Defensively: he needs improvement. You want a good defensive catcher behind the plate. I think he's a fine backup and it's good to see that his ability to walk at a decent rate and strike out a low amount have carried over from the minors. Ceiling if he doesn't improve defensively: backup catcher.

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As far as his ceiling goes, I think what we're seeing is about it. He's already a very polished hitter and should be peaking in terms of athleticism. 

He's been a pleasant surprise, but I expect the question is more along the lines of "how much longer can he keep doing this" than it is "how much better can he get?"

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As others have said, his defensive shortcoming leave him nothing more than a backup catcher. He's been great at the plate since a dreadful start to the season.  If I were Rick, I wouldn't hesitate dealing him if the right offer came along this offseason.  But I doubt it will, because other teams will know this guy isn't a big league catcher. If you can't get anything of value with him, keep riding him as a backup catcher for now.  He's just so bad back there that it really kills any value he has.  

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3 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

Sidenote: when is Welington able to come back from his suspension?

80 games and was busted May 24th.  So he should be off his suspension and able to go on a rehab assignment late August.  Minor league season ends in August, so they may have to send him to a team going to the playoffs.  Or just throw him on the September big league roster and give him minimal at bats.  Doubt its of much concern to the Sox.  

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Echoing what others have said, it is likely that Narvaez's ceiling is that of a backup catcher. He just isn't good enough defensively to be the every day catcher. 

The real question is who is going to be the every day catcher in 2020 when this team is supposed to be ready to compete? The Sox are probably fooling themselves if they think Collins is the answer at catcher as no one outside of the organization thinks that he will stick behind the plate. 

 

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19 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

80 games and was busted May 24th.  So he should be off his suspension and able to go on a rehab assignment late August.  Minor league season ends in August, so they may have to send him to a team going to the playoffs.  Or just throw him on the September big league roster and give him minimal at bats.  Doubt its of much concern to the Sox.  

He can go on a rehab assignment while he is suspended for the final 2 weeks of the suspension (like Cano).

Looks like minor league season ends Labor Day.

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3 minutes ago, footlongcomiskeydog said:

Echoing what others have said, it is likely that Narvaez's ceiling is that of a backup catcher. He just isn't good enough defensively to be the every day catcher. 

The real question is who is going to be the every day catcher in 2020 when this team is supposed to be ready to compete? The Sox are probably fooling themselves if they think Collins is the answer at catcher as no one outside of the organization thinks that he will stick behind the plate. 

 

How many teams in the the league would be able to tell you who their 2020 catcher is going to be with any confidence?  The position is generally terrible league wide.  The Sox are fairly well positioned with options there with Narvaez, Collins, Zavala and Smith.  

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1 minute ago, soxfan2014 said:

He can go on a rehab assignment while he is suspended for the final 2 weeks of the suspension (like Cano).

Looks like minor league season ends Labor Day.

That's right, forgot they get the 2 week period. 

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26 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

How many teams in the the league would be able to tell you who their 2020 catcher is going to be with any confidence?  The position is generally terrible league wide.  The Sox are fairly well positioned with options there with Narvaez, Collins, Zavala and Smith.  

Most of the big boy teams have a pretty good idea of who their catcher will be in 2020. 

I disagree that the Sox are fairly well positioned at catcher. Maybe the Sox shock the world and sign Grandal this offseason. 

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31 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

How many teams in the the league would be able to tell you who their 2020 catcher is going to be with any confidence?  The position is generally terrible league wide.  The Sox are fairly well positioned with options there with Narvaez, Collins, Zavala and Smith.  

Wouldn't be shocked if we signed Yasmani Grandal this offseason after missing on Manny/Harper 

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Just now, soxfan2014 said:

So they'll go with both Grandal and Castillo behind the plate?

They'd trade Castillo for whatever they can get, probably. Only has 2019 on his deal anyway, plus a team option. He's a serviceable catcher, I'm sure someone will want him 

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1 hour ago, footlongcomiskeydog said:

Most of the big boy teams have a pretty good idea of who their catcher will be in 2020. 

I disagree that the Sox are fairly well positioned at catcher. Maybe the Sox shock the world and sign Grandal this offseason. 

The Yankees and Cubs are the only two teams that have a long term catcher.  Not sure how you can define that as "most" with any qualifier.  

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41 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Hopefully this hitting isn't just a fluke, but more than anything I would love to see his defensive game grow and mature, even if his hitting isn't sustained.

We have any former-catchers on the coaching staff? Now would be a good time for a former-catcher type of manager.

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10 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

I'm not really too well-versed on what makes for a great defensive catcher. Is it pitch-framing, calling a game, holding runners - what metrics are evaluated? It doesn't seem like it's evaluated defensively like other positions. What would make Narvaez better? 

Have you watched him back there?  He's visibly bad. Terrible at blocking pitches in the dirt (tries to backhand everything), literally frequently just misses bad pitches that are in the air, he's a bad framer (he frequently catches balls right down the pipe with so much arm movement they're called balls) and he's below average in caught stealing %.  

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1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

The Yankees and Cubs are the only two teams that have a long term catcher.  Not sure how you can define that as "most" with any qualifier.  

The Cubs have a long term catcher. The Yankees have a DH in Sanchez. So it's really just one team. 

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