footlongcomiskeydog Posted August 18, 2018 Share Posted August 18, 2018 The idea of trading Carlos Rodon this offseason has been floating around these parts and others lately and it makes little sense to me. The kid is finally starting to put it together and is under team control for 2019, 2020, and 2021. Why in the world would you want to trade him now for more prospects? Does this sound crazy to anyone else? The Sox are past the teardown stage of the rebuild. The rest of this year and next should be developmental years but the Sox should be trying to get after it in 2020 ( year 4 of the rebuild). Carlos Rodon should be in those plans and will hopefully be an anchor at the top of the rotation. Whenever someone is critical of the Sox rebuild, people love to preach patience and point to the success of the Cubs and Astros. Well, the Cubs and Astros certainly didn't trade away any of their young cost-controlled future studs during the early parts of their rebuild. A trade of Rodon would signal that people are cool with punting away the 2020 and 2021 seasons. That is not cool with me and I'm sure other Sox fans feel the same. This year and last have pretty much sucked and I don't want to sit through 3 or 4 more years of garbage baseball. Let's forget about prospect hoarding and start moving in a winning direction! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ron883 Posted August 18, 2018 Share Posted August 18, 2018 Probly 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted August 18, 2018 Share Posted August 18, 2018 2021, which is exactly why they should trade Rodon. I think they could be competitive in 2020, win 80-85 games, but that wouldn't be enough to make the playoffs in the AL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted August 18, 2018 Share Posted August 18, 2018 5 minutes ago, Hot FiRe said: Probly 2020 Depends on how the first wave of guys are doing. Right now we have no idea what we have in Moncada, Lopez, & Giolito. If those guys take massive leaps next year and Jiménez, Kopech, Burdi, & Hamilton are as good as expected, we should easily be competitive by 2020. If not, we’re waiting on the next wave of guys to arrive and go through their growing pains. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptatc Posted August 18, 2018 Share Posted August 18, 2018 They will be good in 2020. They will truly compete for WS in 2021. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southwest Sider Posted August 18, 2018 Share Posted August 18, 2018 It doesn't hurt to dangle him and see what teams will offer. If you can get an offer of at least 2 top prospects, it behooves the organization to really think about pulling the trigger. While we do want to compete in 2020 and 2021, the ultimate goal is long term sustained success. Rodon can indeed be a part of the short term success, but his being traded could ultimately be a boon to the goal of long term sustained success. That said, I find it unlikely the Sox will receive an offer like that this offseason, so he will not be traded. If there's one thing we can trust about Hahn and his staff, it's that they will not trade a player unless they find the return to be acceptable... even if they want to trade the player. I can't imagine that they are chomping at the bit to unload Rodon, given your excellent argument against trading him. And given his very recent injury history, I doubt any team would want to part with multiple top prospects based on a couple months of great pitching. The earliest I could see Rodon being traded is trade deadline 2019. Waiting until then gives the Sox multiple advantages. 1) Rodon can continue to establish himself and his value 2) Rodon will still have incredible value (2.5 years) to other teams at this juncture if he doesn't get injured or fall on hard times. 3) We are relying (for better or for worse, those arguments don't matter here) on Giolito and Lopez to be significantly better pitchers next year. Should they prove capable as starters in our rotation, Rodon would theoretically become a bit more expendable. Additionally, Kopech will be with the Sox and the end game for him is #1 starter. 4) Teams are sometimes a bit more eager to trade top prospects when playoff berths (and consequently, a World Series) are on the line. With the bevy of pitching prospects the Sox hold, if the scenario above plays out and the Sox receive an offer that is very hard to refuse, I can't blame them if they accept. It would mean that we are just adding to the elite prospect mix of Jimenez/Kopech/Moncada/Cease (et al) that we are all very excited about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joejoedairy Posted August 18, 2018 Share Posted August 18, 2018 2019 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jose Abreu Posted August 18, 2018 Share Posted August 18, 2018 Assuming no major free agent signings, I'd guess 2019: 70 wins 2020: 86 wins (90 or more with Machado/Harper/Arenado etc) 2021: 90+ wins Cubs went from 73 to 97 wins in one year, Astros went from 70 to 86 in one year (and 84 to 101 in one year, as well), so I don't think 70 to 86 is out of the question Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted August 18, 2018 Share Posted August 18, 2018 If Moncada, Giolito, and Lopez, are middling/average players, back of the rotation starters/relievers and so forth, then 2021 at the earliest, maybe 2022 because we'll be waiting on that Winston-Salem team to go to AA in 2019, AAA in 2020, break into the big leagues in April of 2021, and then finally be ready to do some damage in 2022, and that's assuming fewer injuries. In 2021 you could get them where the Braves currently are if some of them could come up and have success immediately...but skepticism on that. Without those 3 being really good players, Kopech and Jiminez, Cease and the catchers as rookies, and a few free agent signings aren't enough. If those 3 break out at some point, then we can talk about this team being really good immediately with Kopech and Jiminez up and a major FA addition somewhere, because we'll have a good heart of the order, depth including average players like Anderson, and a dominant rotation. That could happen next year...if those 3 all suddenly lived up to their billing as prospects. They're the difference between this team struggling through the next 2 seasons and this team breaking through. There's enough talent there to be the difference between 28 WAR teams and 40+ WAR teams - the former is an upper 70s win team, the latter competes for playoff spots. If those guys aren't strong big league players, then we should trade Rodon. If we can develop them into something useful, then this team could surprise immediately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackSox13 Posted August 18, 2018 Share Posted August 18, 2018 The Sox will never again be good at the mlb level. As assets developed they will be traded for more assets to maintain a perennial top three farm. The rebuild is perpetual and a never ending story, but a happy one. In time Sox fans will morph into shiny happy people holding hands singing kumbaya and eating smores around a campfire talking about how great it will be when the evil gargamel sells the Sox to Mark Cuban. So buck up little campers because every little ting is gonna be alright. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
black jack Posted August 18, 2018 Share Posted August 18, 2018 The division is so bad, I could see them winning a lot more games than expected next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted August 18, 2018 Share Posted August 18, 2018 1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said: 2021, which is exactly why they should trade Rodon. I think they could be competitive in 2020, win 80-85 games, but that wouldn't be enough to make the playoffs in the AL. Depends completely on the state of the Indians... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soxfan49 Posted August 18, 2018 Share Posted August 18, 2018 Never because @footlongcomiskeydog @greg775 and @WBWSF don’t think so either 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackSox13 Posted August 18, 2018 Share Posted August 18, 2018 20 minutes ago, soxfan49 said: Never because @footlongcomiskeydog @greg775 and @WBWSF don’t think so either Did you really just tag the axis of evil? You're in trouble now! 😛 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCCWS Posted August 19, 2018 Share Posted August 19, 2018 1 hour ago, BlackSox13 said: The Sox will never again be good at the mlb level. As assets developed they will be traded for more assets to maintain a perennial top three farm. The rebuild is perpetual and a never ending story, but a happy one. In time Sox fans will morph into shiny happy people holding hands singing kumbaya and eating smores around a campfire talking about how great it will be when the evil gargamel sells the Sox to Mark Cuban. So buck up little campers because every little ting is gonna be alright. But think of how good the Charlotte Knights will be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spiderman Posted August 19, 2018 Share Posted August 19, 2018 4 hours ago, footlongcomiskeydog said: The idea of trading Carlos Rodon this offseason has been floating around these parts and others lately and it makes little sense to me. The kid is finally starting to put it together and is under team control for 2019, 2020, and 2021. Why in the world would you want to trade him now for more prospects? Does this sound crazy to anyone else? The Sox are past the teardown stage of the rebuild. The rest of this year and next should be developmental years but the Sox should be trying to get after it in 2020 ( year 4 of the rebuild). Carlos Rodon should be in those plans and will hopefully be an anchor at the top of the rotation. Whenever someone is critical of the Sox rebuild, people love to preach patience and point to the success of the Cubs and Astros. Well, the Cubs and Astros certainly didn't trade away any of their young cost-controlled future studs during the early parts of their rebuild. A trade of Rodon would signal that people are cool with punting away the 2020 and 2021 seasons. That is not cool with me and I'm sure other Sox fans feel the same. This year and last have pretty much sucked and I don't want to sit through 3 or 4 more years of garbage baseball. Let's forget about prospect hoarding and start moving in a winning direction! Carlos Rodon could be a potential gauge for how the White Sox feel about competing next year (and beyond). They have a 3 year window with him. Within that window, health will be a very large . risk and as the window begins to close, his future with the White Sox will begin to become a focus. If next season is another year of watching young talent develop (or not develop) at the major league level, Rodon's 1st of a 3 year window is probably lost. Realistically, next season, will be the first full year of their bigger prospects, and there's not guarantee that we won't continue to see more Fulmer type development from our top level prospects. Next season, assuming they don't make any any major league free agent splashes, this team is going to struggle. This is going to be a 90 loss team even with some improvement. If the White Sox can land 2 top 100 prospects for Roden, do they move their last large piece? That's going to be very interesting question. My initial guess is that the White Sox are going to keep Rodon, and start getting their top level prospects to the major league roster in early April. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
footlongcomiskeydog Posted August 19, 2018 Author Share Posted August 19, 2018 3 hours ago, BlackSox13 said: The Sox will never again be good at the mlb level. As assets developed they will be traded for more assets to maintain a perennial top three farm. The rebuild is perpetual and a never ending story, but a happy one. In time Sox fans will morph into shiny happy people holding hands singing kumbaya and eating smores around a campfire talking about how great it will be when the evil gargamel sells the Sox to Mark Cuban. So buck up little campers because every little ting is gonna be alright. I can dig the sarcasm. However, the situation that you describe has played out in the past with other franchises. First we move Rodon before the 2021 window ,and next thing you know we are worried about moving Moncada before the 2024 window closes cause the guys you got for Rodon are "still developing". 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted August 19, 2018 Share Posted August 19, 2018 1 minute ago, footlongcomiskeydog said: I can dig the sarcasm. However, the situation that you describe has played out in the past with other franchises. First we move Rodon before the 2021 window ,and next thing you know we are worried about moving Moncada before the 2024 window closes cause the guys you got for Rodon are "still developing". Hopefully we get Alen Hansen for Moncada. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
footlongcomiskeydog Posted August 19, 2018 Author Share Posted August 19, 2018 24 minutes ago, spiderman said: Carlos Rodon could be a potential gauge for how the White Sox feel about competing next year (and beyond). They have a 3 year window with him. Within that window, health will be a very large . risk and as the window begins to close, his future with the White Sox will begin to become a focus. If next season is another year of watching young talent develop (or not develop) at the major league level, Rodon's 1st of a 3 year window is probably lost. Realistically, next season, will be the first full year of their bigger prospects, and there's not guarantee that we won't continue to see more Fulmer type development from our top level prospects. Next season, assuming they don't make any any major league free agent splashes, this team is going to struggle. This is going to be a 90 loss team even with some improvement. If the White Sox can land 2 top 100 prospects for Roden, do they move their last large piece? That's going to be very interesting question. My initial guess is that the White Sox are going to keep Rodon, and start getting their top level prospects to the major league roster in early April. How is Rodon their last large piece? What about Abreu, Avi, Sanchez, Shields? None of these guys have any future with the White Sox. Abreu should have been moved a long time ago. Let Davidson, Skole, or Casey Gillapsie play first until Gavin Sheets is ready. Same for Avi. Give the playing time in Right to Cordell, Leury, and Tilson. DFA Shields and promote Stephens or Jordan Guerrero. The Sox are giving way too much playing time to guys who do not factor into their long term plans. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TaylorStSox Posted August 19, 2018 Share Posted August 19, 2018 (edited) If you can trade a high risk pitcher for 2 or more top 50 prospects, you always do it regardless of what stage of a rebuild you're in (unless he's truly elite). I like Rodon. I don't like Rodon's shoulder. Edited August 19, 2018 by TaylorStSox Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackSox13 Posted August 19, 2018 Share Posted August 19, 2018 (edited) 46 minutes ago, footlongcomiskeydog said: I can dig the sarcasm. However, the situation that you describe has played out in the past with other franchises. First we move Rodon before the 2021 window ,and next thing you know we are worried about moving Moncada before the 2024 window closes cause the guys you got for Rodon are "still developing". Here's my serious thoughts on the idea of moving Rodon. 1) hold onto Rodon through the 2019 season to see how his shoulder holds up. If his shoulder holds up try negotiating an extension towards the end of the season and into the off season. If he signs then great. The Sox can dangle one or two of their minor league pitching talent for trade bait to help fill a hole on the ML roster. 2) if he doesn't sign then he'll have better value than he does now since he will have shown to be healthy with two years of control remaining. Let teams know he's available but it will cost will be somewhat near the Sale and Q trades. 3) only trade Rodon during the 2019/20 winter if pitchers on the Sox team continue to develop and young pitchers in the minors are ready to compete for the spot vacated by Rodon if he's traded. If nobody is ready to fill that hole then keep Rodon and hope someone becomes ready by the ASB 2020 and dangle Rodon at that point with 1.5 years of control left. Just my humble opinion but to try and trade Rodon now would be selling low. Unless of course one believes Rodon will continue to be injury prone and just wants to cut bait and take the best offer for him now, which at this time I do not agree with. Edited August 19, 2018 by BlackSox13 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackSox13 Posted August 19, 2018 Share Posted August 19, 2018 42 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: Hopefully we get Alen Hansen for Moncada. Going by the comments in the Moncada thread the Sox would do well to get Hanson lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenSox Posted August 19, 2018 Share Posted August 19, 2018 Optimistically: 2022 A rebuild should take 3 years, imo. They should be good in 2020. I don't think they will be. I'm optimistic that JR will clean out his FO after 2020; optimistic that he will hire a quality FO; and optimistic that there will still be enough young talent for a new FO to fix it in a year or two. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted August 19, 2018 Share Posted August 19, 2018 (edited) 47 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: Hopefully we get Alen Hansen for Moncada. Yet somehow the A’s went from the best team in baseball at the end of 2014...to one of the best teams in baseball again with just three years in between, in one of the more talented divisions in baseball. They traded Samardzja...we had three top 30 talents to help springboard our rebuild. Edited August 19, 2018 by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigHurt3515 Posted August 19, 2018 Share Posted August 19, 2018 Seeing what the A's are doing with no star player or ace pitcher gives me hope it can be done sooner but I am not banking on it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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