The " Tank" is dead . Let there be Light !

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

15 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I do believe we are a year early.  I don't see the point of a deal that isn't either for a long term superstar or a spacefiller in the 18/19 off season. If they aren't, you should let the group we have in the system show you what your next moves should be. 

I don't want to see a 50 million or 100 million dollar type of deal this year. If you can get MM or BH do it.

If not, sign some space holders to make the 25 man work (maybe a 5th starter, pen arm, or position player filler if needed).

Keep scouring the waiver wire and moving international cap space for interesting young kids. We did our best work last year with guys like Palka and Ruiz, plus ones like Burr and Frare. 

Past that play 2019 and let the players in the organization tell you who is worth keeping and dumping to dictate your next big moves.

To each their own . I'm looking forward to seeing what happens. It's my personal belief that one must take affirmative action and be aggressive when putting this all together . Patience is great and i'm sure that it can reap many benefits but the guys that matter most are in the 2019 and 2020 FA classes and I truly loathe the idea that we strike out this year wait for 2020 thus  increasing our odds of failing.

[BlackSox13]

20 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

If you believe the Sox go after Harper  why would he sign with us besides the money ? Do you think he wants to wait around for Robert, Rutherford, Adolfo etc to come up in 2 more years without winning ? No, you sign him and things accelerate a lot more quickly . The only way to get one of the big boys is to offer a lot of money and show them how we plan to win as quickly as possible . If you sign Harper early. He can even act as a recruiter to other guys.

After this year most if not all of the SP should be good for a full season with occasional phantom injuries and  even a 5th starter like eww Shields. If Cease is killing it again in the minors and the Sox look like they can make the playoffs you start limiting his innings around June/July to keep him fresher perhaps as an October starter but maybe more as a reliever.

I know its all highly unlikely  but it all hinges on signing one of the top guns. then the dominoes start to fall.

As I said in previous posts, I think the Sox will make offers, as they should, but I don't think the Sox will land Harper or Machado. It's easy to say offer them the most money but there will be contending teams with plenty of money to offer those guys. Contenders such as the Phillies and Braves both have the money to spend and payroll space to land Harper and Machado. Honestly, I don't think the Sox have a snowballs chance in hell. 

As for the starting pitching. I actually hope the Sox aren't a playoff team next year so the Sox don't have to stress the young pitchers with more playoff innings. If they stay healthy they will accumulate enough innings during the regular season. Not interested in doing to them what happened to Strasburg and Harvey. 

IMHO, it's a year too soon. 

[Balta1701]

56 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

If you watched the 1st half of the season and saw a 120 loss team then sabermetrics have failed you because you missed out on the talent that was there which has made itself known over the last couple of months. Again if you watched these guys and believed they were failures because the numbers told you that they deserved to be failures, the numbers have proved you wrong.

But that's not bad luck, that's not even close to a fluke or a worst case scenario, that's a team where a number of guys pushed up to the big leagues struggled and put up poor numbers.

[gusguyman]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

If you watched the 1st half of the season and saw a 120 loss team then sabermetrics have failed you because you missed out on the talent that was there which has made itself known over the last couple of months. Again if you watched these guys and believed they were failures because the numbers told you that they deserved to be failures, the numbers have proved you wrong.

Don't move the goalposts. At the ASB, the team was on pace to finish 56-106. If you want to say that is unlucky because our sort of shitty outfielders got injured and we had to replace them with actually shitty outfielders, fine, but that record is pretty close to what I saw as the true talent level of the team while watching games (Which I have already said was low 60's wins). The stats all back me up on that. If you saw a team significantly better, I'll have what you're having.

1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

It's good to have another knowledgeable guy on board here and I hope you continue posting often. I'm an old school guy admittedly and respect the hell out of sabremetrics with the caveat that only the people that look at just about every sabremetric stats are truly worthy of using them. You might be that guy. I don't know. Very often on message boards, and I have been here on Soxtalk for 14 years, I rarely ever  see them used them correctly and often in isolation from other sabremetric stats.

For example. I've seen the FIP/xFIP and other stats used to support arguments but some believe things like weak contact or barrel rate also is a useful indicator . It's hard to explain because it just take a ton of knowledge and I don't have the time, knowledge or mathematics abilities to use it myself. That's why teams use a whole staff of sabre guys. Welcome and stick around for the good times ahead.

 

I am by no means a saber expert, but I am a (Bayesian) stats expert, so I love to read articles from the people who really know what they're doing. Stats can't replace a scout, but they are far more resistant to bias and narratives, so I prefer to lean on them. Thanks for the welcome, and as a NorCal guy it is nice to see another Sox fan who will be posting in my time zone. 

54 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

But that's not bad luck, that's not even close to a fluke or a worst case scenario, that's a team where a number of guys pushed up to the big leagues struggled and put up poor numbers.

I agree with this. Luck regresses, talent does not. The potential talent may have been decent, but the actual talent of the roster was trash for most of the 1st half. Hopefully a good chunk of the post ASB production is because young players took a step forward. The stats say a lot of it was luck though, and I have to agree. There is no way the roster went from a 100 loss to a 90 win team.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

4 hours ago, BlackSox13 said:

As I said in previous posts, I think the Sox will make offers, as they should, but I don't think the Sox will land Harper or Machado. It's easy to say offer them the most money but there will be contending teams with plenty of money to offer those guys. Contenders such as the Phillies and Braves both have the money to spend and payroll space to land Harper and Machado. Honestly, I don't think the Sox have a snowballs chance in hell. 

As for the starting pitching. I actually hope the Sox aren't a playoff team next year so the Sox don't have to stress the young pitchers with more playoff innings. If they stay healthy they will accumulate enough innings during the regular season. Not interested in doing to them what happened to Strasburg and Harvey. 

IMHO, it's a year too soon. 

Oh I know exactly what you;re saying and agree with most of it. I don't think there's a chance either we get one or Harper or Machado. I've argued with the guys who think money is the only motivator to sign with whoever they end up with while I argued sure its the money 1st and foremost but 2 guys who haven't  won a World Series will want the money and a chance to get the ring.

Everything I've said up to this point is purely based on what happens if we do get one of them. Without one of them that changes everything just as getting one of them changes everything.

I keep imagining Eloy being a great player right away and Moncada stepping up in a big way and Kopech not having the kind of problems Gio and Lopez have experienced even though I'm sure he will. Rodon could be an ace but he could also be the same guy we've seen over and over with dominant runs only to fall back or get injured. I'm basing everything on best case scenarios and a lot of things happening that aren't likely to happen,

I know deep down that it's a year too early but I can't stop myself from dreaming bigger. The sooner we start to realize that our path to the playoffs might be quicker than anticipated due to our weak division the better. If we cant compete or get significantly better next year I think it limits the chance of success in 2020 and I keep seeing the timeline for success being pushed further away based on waiting for more prospects, If in 2020 we say OK prospects are here, now we sign free agents and expect it to all come together  all at once is just as unrealistic as me wanting to go for it next year because position player prospects are just as likely to have the same kind of growing pains the pitchers do.

[BlackSox13]

11 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Oh I know exactly what you;re saying and agree with most of it. I don't think there's a chance either we get one or Harper or Machado. I've argued with the guys who think money is the only motivator to sign with whoever they end up with while I argued sure its the money 1st and foremost but 2 guys who haven't  won a World Series will want the money and a chance to get the ring.

Everything I've said up to this point is purely based on what happens if we do get one of them. Without one of them that changes everything just as getting one of them changes everything.

I keep imagining Eloy being a great player right away and Moncada stepping up in a big way and Kopech not having the kind of problems Gio and Lopez have experienced even though I'm sure he will. Rodon could be an ace but he could also be the same guy we've seen over and over with dominant runs only to fall back or get injured. I'm basing everything on best case scenarios and a lot of things happening that aren't likely to happen,

I know deep down that it's a year too early but I can't stop myself from dreaming bigger. The sooner we start to realize that our path to the playoffs might be quicker than anticipated due to our weak division the better. If we cant compete or get significantly better next year I think it limits the chance of success in 2020 and I keep seeing the timeline for success being pushed further away based on waiting for more prospects, If in 2020 we say OK prospects are here, now we sign free agents and expect it to all come together  all at once is just as unrealistic as me wanting to go for it next year because position player prospects are just as likely to have the same kind of growing pains the pitchers do.

OK, I have a better idea of where you're coming from now. It's tantalizing to think about. Especially with Cleveland set to lose a few key players to free agency this winter if they don't re-sign them. I think Cleveland has one more year atop the ALC and after that the Sox will be taking over. The Royals and Tigers will still be rebuilding, the Twins in limbo and with Cleveland's aging pitching I suspect they will be declining. In 2020 the Sox should begin to own the ALC for years to come.

If the Sox happen to be lucky enough to land Harper or Machado then I would agree and not stop there. Patrick Corbin would be next on my list.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

9 minutes ago, BlackSox13 said:

OK, I have a better idea of where you're coming from now. It's tantalizing to think about. Especially with Cleveland set to lose a few key players to free agency this winter if they don't re-sign them. I think Cleveland has one more year atop the ALC and after that the Sox will be taking over. The Royals and Tigers will still be rebuilding, the Twins in limbo and with Cleveland's aging pitching I suspect they will be declining. In 2020 the Sox should begin to own the ALC for years to come.

If the Sox happen to be lucky enough to land Harper or Machado then I would agree and not stop there. Patrick Corbin would be next on my list.

! had a feeling a SP would be on your list, And I totally know what you mean, Anyone who's ever said we won't need starters or relief pitchers because that's what our great pitching prospects are for, I've argued with them too . I only mentioned position player FA's because that's where the Sox are weakest. The Cubs went out of got Lester  Q ,Chapman, Darvish and now Hamels because they are strongest in position players.

I also understand not wanting to ruin the young arms by pushing them past their limits. Even if you don't those arms are always a bigger risk than position players for injury which makes the Sox rebuild a riskier proposition than the Cubs but its also our strength as an organization. Sometimes pushing guys passed limits cant be helped. How many pitchers be it veterans or youngsters are truly prepared to pitch through the playoff and into a World Series when often the rotation is  only the 1 2 3 Sp's and once in a while the 4th starter ? I've often said the season should go back to 154 games especially when MLB expanded the playoffs.But baseball kind of solved that problem by relying more and more on relief pitchers but now I think rosters need to be expanded because of that . I think MLB is putting a lot of stress on pitchers arms and not doing much to take the load off .

[BlackSox13]

17 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

! had a feeling a SP would be on your list, And I totally know what you mean, Anyone who's ever said we won't need starters or relief pitchers because that's what our great pitching prospects are for, I've argued with them too . I only mentioned position player FA's because that's where the Sox are weakest. The Cubs went out of got Lester  Q ,Chapman, Darvish and now Hamels because they are strongest in position players.

I also understand not wanting to ruin the young arms by pushing them past their limits. Even if you don't those arms are always a bigger risk than position players for injury which makes the Sox rebuild a riskier proposition than the Cubs but its also our strength as an organization. Sometimes pushing guys passed limits cant be helped. How many pitchers be it veterans or youngsters are truly prepared to pitch through the playoff and into a World Series when often the rotation is  only the 1 2 3 Sp's and once in a while the 4th starter ? I've often said the season should go back to 154 games especially when MLB expanded the playoffs.But baseball kind of solved that problem by relying more and more on relief pitchers but now I think rosters need to be expanded because of that . I think MLB is putting a lot of stress on pitchers arms and not doing much to take the load off .

Absolutely! Signing one of those two hitters kinda makes it necessary to fill the void left by Shields with a proven starter so go for broke.  Now that I think about it, depending on the length of contract he's looking for, I would be fine with going after Corbin regardless if the Sox look to compete next year. Have a feeling he's probably going to look for 6+ year deal and I'm not sure I'd go that far out for him, but I'd do 5 guaranteed.

I'd like to see the rosters expand to 26 or even 27 players to allow for a few extra pitchers. The 162 game season is hell on players and especially pitchers so expanding the roster would help teams alot. Especially playoff bound teams.

[pcq]

10 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

+1. Get Renteria the fuck out of the dugout. Steverson can join him. See my Sig, lol. 

I don't see mgt changes in the cards and I don't see big name FAs coming on board. We are kind of a wayside franchise that will try and improve incrementally in our own discreet way. I do prefer playing for wins. 

[Buehrle>Wood]

I'm glad to see tank derangement syndrome hit so hard that there are now people openly rooting against the Sox to make the playoffs.

[Balta1701]

7 hours ago, gusguyman said:

I agree with this. Luck regresses, talent does not. The potential talent may have been decent, but the actual talent of the roster was trash for most of the 1st half. Hopefully a good chunk of the post ASB production is because young players took a step forward. The stats say a lot of it was luck though, and I have to agree. There is no way the roster went from a 100 loss to a 90 win team.

There's been some luck in this stretch as they're over .500 for this stretch and right now they're not a >.500 team, but just as I disagree with the idea that they were unlucky in the first half, I seriously disagree with your last statement. This roster has absolutely gone from a 100 loss roster to a 90 loss roster during this year. We've seen legit improvement from Giolito and Lopez, including on the peripheral numbers that are the things they needed to improve on. We've replaced Santiago and Covey in the rotation with Kopech and Rodon. The only real decent piece we traded the whole year was Soria, and we've called up some bullpen talent. And in the field, we've seen some growth from Anderson, and we've seen the emergence of Palka and Narvaez into at least quality bats during the year. Where they are right now, they're probably about a 90 loss team, and with improvement from the guys already here, they could easily be at the level of an 85 loss team next year before any additions. And then the thing in the OF will come up.

[southsider2k5]

3 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

There's been some luck in this stretch as they're over .500 for this stretch and right now they're not a >.500 team, but just as I disagree with the idea that they were unlucky in the first half, I seriously disagree with your last statement. This roster has absolutely gone from a 100 loss roster to a 90 loss roster during this year. We've seen legit improvement from Giolito and Lopez, including on the peripheral numbers that are the things they needed to improve on. We've replaced Santiago and Covey in the rotation with Kopech and Rodon. The only real decent piece we traded the whole year was Soria, and we've called up some bullpen talent. And in the field, we've seen some growth from Anderson, and we've seen the emergence of Palka and Narvaez into at least quality bats during the year. Where they are right now, they're probably about a 90 loss team, and with improvement from the guys already here, they could easily be at the level of an 85 loss team next year before any additions. And then the thing in the OF will come up.

Mark this date in history, I agree with this post.  .500-ish with Eloy sounds about right with me, assuming no major add-ons.

[gusguyman]

11 hours ago, gusguyman said:

There is no way the roster went from a 100 loss to a 90 win team.

 

3 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

There's been some luck in this stretch as they're over .500 for this stretch and right now they're not a >.500 team, but just as I disagree with the idea that they were unlucky in the first half, I seriously disagree with your last statement. This roster has absolutely gone from a 100 loss roster to a 90 loss roster during this year.

Sorry, I phrased it weirdly, but we are actually in complete agreement here. The first half was a fairly accurate representation of our team, and while we improved (I've said previously from mid 60's to low 70's in wins), we have not improved as much as the record looks like. I think adding Eloy and a full year of Kopech and Rodon gets us to upper 70's wins, and the growth we need to see from Moncada and the young arms could feasibly bring us to .500, if things go right. Glad we could all align.

[Eminor3rd]

Good posts, @gusguyman. Don't have time to join the convo but wanted to support your thought process.

[bmags]

I don't know what we mean by unlucky in the first half. Our record indicated exactly how bad this team was playing, but I do think the team was playing worse than its talent level (especially pitching).

I think the team is probably correctly a 63 win team right now. Eloy + improvement I think gets us back to 72 wins next year. Massive leaps in production need to occur in several positions to get to that 80 win threshold.

And i think we can personally.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

The universe just told us " You can't have nice things! " The light has now been covered by a dense fog. ( Kopech torn UCL for future reference to this thread). Sigh.

[SonofaRoache]

On 9/7/2018 at 10:49 PM, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

The universe just told us " You can't have nice things! " The light has now been covered by a dense fog. ( Kopech torn UCL for future reference to this thread). Sigh.

To be fair this happens to most teams. If our FO knows what they are doing then 2020 will still be a really fun year. Sadly, I don't think they know what they are doing. 

[GreenSox]

The tank has arisen.....

[Jerksticks]

Let there be tank

[BlackSox13]

Just because Kopech is out doesn't mean the tank is back on. The Sox were playing good ball before the call-up and in games Kopech didn't pitch.

[GreenSox]

7 hours ago, BlackSox13 said:

Just because Kopech is out doesn't mean the tank is back on. The Sox were playing good ball before the call-up and in games Kopech didn't pitch.

It's back on because the Sox have just out-tanked 2 tankers in 2 home series, and in style, losing 35-10.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 hours ago, GreenSox said:

It's back on because the Sox have just out-tanked 2 tankers in 2 home series, and in style, losing 35-10.

Apparently the players are just as bummed out about Kopech as we are.

[BlackSox13]

3 hours ago, GreenSox said:

It's back on because the Sox have just out-tanked 2 tankers in 2 home series, and in style, losing 35-10.

Just part of the ups and downs a young team goes through. We're going to see more of it in 2019 as wel but it won't mean the tank is on. 

[GreenSox]

3 minutes ago, BlackSox13 said:

Just part of the ups and downs a young team goes through. We're going to see more of it in 2019 as wel but it won't mean the tank is on. 

In the sense of intentionally trying to lose, I don't think that the tank has ever been on.  In the sense of being a bad team, it probably never left...as you said, just the ups and downs.

[gusguyman]

Regression is a b****, eh?