Chicago White Sox Posted August 30, 2018 Share Posted August 30, 2018 That .709 OPS is 16th amongst SS’s, so pretty much average. Add in plus base running and above average defense and he can be a very valuable piece. And let’s not forget he’s 25 years old and came into this league incredibly raw. He should get better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jose Abreu Posted August 30, 2018 Share Posted August 30, 2018 Why are people acting like a .291 OBP and .709 OPS are a .250 OBP and .650 OPS? Average offensive production + plus defensive production + plus baserunning value = very good player, especially at shortstop. It's really not that hard to understand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted August 30, 2018 Share Posted August 30, 2018 1 minute ago, Jose Abreu said: Why are people acting like a .291 OBP and .709 OPS are a .250 OBP and .650 OPS? Average offensive production + plus defensive production + plus baserunning value = very good player, especially at shortstop. It's really not that hard to understand. Because both a .291 OBP and A .709 OPS still suck, even if they're not historically bad. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turnin' two Posted August 30, 2018 Share Posted August 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said: Why are people acting like a .291 OBP and .709 OPS are a .250 OBP and .650 OPS? Average offensive production + plus defensive production + plus baserunning value = very good player, especially at shortstop. It's really not that hard to understand. It isn't people. Seems to be one guy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turnin' two Posted August 30, 2018 Share Posted August 30, 2018 27 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: OPS is the simple math of OBP plus slugging %. Yes, the combination of XBH and OBP typically score more runs. OPS and OBP have the strongest correlation with run scoring. OBP is part of OPS, so I don't know what you're looking for. What's Anderson's OPS? .710? That still isn't good. EDIT: Anderson's OPS is .709. Not good. Yeah. I know that. You are the one who said OBP is the center of offense or whatever nonsense. I am just looking for a logical point, relative to others at the position that add value in the ways that Anderson does. He isn't Lindor, but to treat him like a cast off or a super sub is pretty ridiculous. He is 25 years old and has been showing improvement in pretty much every way the Sox could have hoped. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigHurt3515 Posted August 30, 2018 Share Posted August 30, 2018 So is Giolito doing better the last few weeks? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted August 30, 2018 Share Posted August 30, 2018 1 minute ago, turnin' two said: Yeah. I know that. You are the one who said OBP is the center of offense or whatever nonsense. I am just looking for a logical point, relative to others at the position that add value in the ways that Anderson does. He isn't Lindor, but to treat him like a cast off or a super sub is pretty ridiculous. He is 25 years old and has been showing improvement in pretty much every way the Sox could have hoped. There are A LOT of really good young SS in the bigs right now. Anderson is nowhere near one of them. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted August 30, 2018 Share Posted August 30, 2018 (edited) 10 minutes ago, BigHurt3515 said: So is Giolito doing better the last few weeks? Yes. I think we need to split this thread into the Anderson OBP Thread, and the Giolito thread. Surprised it hasn't been done yet. I'm going to create a new thread. Edited August 30, 2018 by Jack Parkman 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turnin' two Posted August 30, 2018 Share Posted August 30, 2018 On 8/28/2018 at 5:58 PM, Jack Parkman said: I'm just going to sit back and watch you guys discuss this. I'm saying nothing in response to all of the shit that I got for saying I still thought he could turn it around. Am I remembering incorrectly, or weren't you the cat that said he could never be good because his velocity wasn't high enough? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted August 30, 2018 Share Posted August 30, 2018 18 minutes ago, turnin' two said: Am I remembering incorrectly, or weren't you the cat that said he could never be good because his velocity wasn't high enough? No, I was talking about Dunning, and that was when the reports were that he was sitting at 90-91. We now know that he was having elbow issues, which explains a lot. It's really hard to be successful as a RHP at that velo these days. I've seen reports that when healthy, Dunning sits in the 93-94 range and tops out at 96 which is fine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dominikk85 Posted August 30, 2018 Share Posted August 30, 2018 It is a good sign, especially the velo and Ks but he had stretches like this before and then cratered again. Maybe he finally figured it out but I'm not holding my breath until he shows he can do it consistently. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted August 30, 2018 Author Share Posted August 30, 2018 8 hours ago, Jose Abreu said: Why are people acting like a .291 OBP and .709 OPS are a .250 OBP and .650 OPS? Average offensive production + plus defensive production + plus baserunning value = very good player, especially at shortstop. It's really not that hard to understand. Especially since if you actually take the time and do peer comparisons, the narrative in question here has been definitively proven false, repeatedly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dam8610 Posted August 30, 2018 Share Posted August 30, 2018 9 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said: That .709 OPS is 16th amongst SS’s, so pretty much average. Add in plus base running and above average defense and he can be a very valuable piece. And let’s not forget he’s 25 years old and came into this league incredibly raw. He should get better. Isn't he also still on the part of the WAR curve where, on average, you expect better results from the player the following year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted August 30, 2018 Share Posted August 30, 2018 (edited) 39 minutes ago, Dam8610 said: Isn't he also still on the part of the WAR curve where, on average, you expect better results from the player the following year? Nope. If you actually look at aging curves, on average, a hitter is at their peak when they're first called up from the minors, and they get worse from there. Exceptions exist for players that struggle to figure it out, and do eventually, but they usually never exceed that first breakout season. Hitters, once they get to the Majors, generally don't get better. They get worse. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/hitters-no-longer-peak-only-decline/ Edited August 30, 2018 by Jack Parkman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SonofaRoache Posted August 30, 2018 Share Posted August 30, 2018 9 hours ago, Jack Parkman said: Because both a .291 OBP and A .709 OPS still suck, even if they're not historically bad. Not every player on a team can be great. It's like expecting a 5th start to have a 3.70 ERA. If Anderson is your 7th or 8th best positional player, you will compete for championships. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptatc Posted August 30, 2018 Share Posted August 30, 2018 1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said: Nope. If you actually look at aging curves, on average, a hitter is at their peak when they're first called up from the minors, and they get worse from there. Exceptions exist for players that struggle to figure it out, and do eventually, but they usually never exceed that first breakout season. Hitters, once they get to the Majors, generally don't get better. They get worse. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/hitters-no-longer-peak-only-decline/ That article is from 2013 and is outdated. There have been more recent articles from baseball reference , unfortunately I can't figure out how to link them, that states the peak age is 27-28. Of course if they are called up at 25, the peak is pretty close to when they are called up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted August 30, 2018 Share Posted August 30, 2018 1 hour ago, SonofaRoache said: Not every player on a team can be great. It's like expecting a 5th start to have a 3.70 ERA. If Anderson is your 7th or 8th best positional player, you will compete for championships. I expect my 5th starter to have an ERA in the 3.90-4.20 range? Do you think that is unreasonable? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted August 30, 2018 Share Posted August 30, 2018 8 minutes ago, ptatc said: That article is from 2013 and is outdated. There have been more recent articles from baseball reference , unfortunately I can't figure out how to link them, that states the peak age is 27-28. Of course if they are called up at 25, the peak is pretty close to when they are called up. How is it outdated? Please tell me what they did wrong and why the evidence states otherwise? They make a pretty compelling argument in that article. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dam8610 Posted August 30, 2018 Share Posted August 30, 2018 1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said: How is it outdated? Please tell me what they did wrong and why the evidence states otherwise? They make a pretty compelling argument in that article. It's from 5 years ago and newer research has proven something different. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmarComing25 Posted August 30, 2018 Share Posted August 30, 2018 2 hours ago, Jack Parkman said: I expect my 5th starter to have an ERA in the 3.90-4.20 range? Do you think that is unreasonable? That would make him a top 60 starting pitcher going by the 2018 season. Might be a bit much of an ask for the 5th starter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted August 30, 2018 Author Share Posted August 30, 2018 2 hours ago, Jack Parkman said: I expect my 5th starter to have an ERA in the 3.90-4.20 range? Do you think that is unreasonable? The league average ERA right now is 4.22 for all of MLB in terms of starting pitching. In the AL that numbers shoots up to 4.41. You are wanting your 5th starter to be about half a run better than league average. I would call that unrealistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmarComing25 Posted August 30, 2018 Share Posted August 30, 2018 (edited) 16 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: The league average ERA right now is 4.22 for all of MLB in terms of starting pitching. In the AL that numbers shoots up to 4.41. You are wanting your 5th starter to be about half a run better than league average. I would call that unrealistic. 2 hours ago, Jack Parkman said: I expect my 5th starter to have an ERA in the 3.90-4.20 range? Do you think that is unreasonable? To further bring home the point, only 4 teams have a 5th starter in that range, and 2 of them (Red Sox and Cardinals) should barely count because they haven't had a dedicated 5th starter all year, it's a spot that has been shared by various guys throughout the season. Also Eduardo Rodriguez hasn't pitched in nearly 2 months and Porcello's ERA is just barely in that range so I'm hesitant to even include them. Very few teams are even going to end up with a 5th starter pitching over 100 innings. Edited August 30, 2018 by OmarComing25 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SonofaRoache Posted August 30, 2018 Share Posted August 30, 2018 5 hours ago, Jack Parkman said: I expect my 5th starter to have an ERA in the 3.90-4.20 range? Do you think that is unreasonable? A 3.90 ERA would be 38th in all of baseball, meaning almost an ace. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peppers312 Posted August 30, 2018 Share Posted August 30, 2018 On 8/28/2018 at 5:36 PM, almagest said: Some really nice movement on this 2-seamer GrayAgitatedAztecant-mobile.mp4 that's pretty nasty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turnin' two Posted August 31, 2018 Share Posted August 31, 2018 (edited) That 2 seamer looked pretty darn good tonight. That fade back is amazing. That is now quality starts in 8 of his last 10. Edited August 31, 2018 by turnin' two Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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