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joemg311

Rebuild phase 2: Free agent spending

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Long time reader and lurker here. There is so much doom and gloom lately with the prospect aspect of the rebuild. I'm still optimistic about the teams future though. We have lots of money to spend to help this team compete in the near future.  Was it ever really realistic to expect the entire starting rotation to be all studs on rookie contracts? I feel like the only way the rebuild is actually an epic fail is if this team doesn't go out and spend as promised. I know the ultimate goal is to win a world series, but this team can still at least be competitive in our garbage division by adding a few guys and then have a shot at a world series if some of the prospects turn out to be very good major leaguers.  Why not compete next year? You don't even need to spend and get Harper or Machado, sign Donaldson+Brantley+a legit bullpen arm instead. Lets get back to being an ok team through free agency and then see if the farm system can turn us into a very good team the next few years.

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1 hour ago, joemg311 said:

Long time reader and lurker here. There is so much doom and gloom lately with the prospect aspect of the rebuild. I'm still optimistic about the teams future though. We have lots of money to spend to help this team compete in the near future.  Was it ever really realistic to expect the entire starting rotation to be all studs on rookie contracts? I feel like the only way the rebuild is actually an epic fail is if this team doesn't go out and spend as promised. I know the ultimate goal is to win a world series, but this team can still at least be competitive in our garbage division by adding a few guys and then have a shot at a world series if some of the prospects turn out to be very good major leaguers.  Why not compete next year? You don't even need to spend and get Harper or Machado, sign Donaldson+Brantley+a legit bullpen arm instead. Lets get back to being an ok team through free agency and then see if the farm system can turn us into a very good team the next few years.

Alright well I won't argue Brantley and even a high end 'pen arm but there is 0 need for Donaldson, what don't we get?

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43 minutes ago, ChiSoxJon said:

Alright well I won't argue Brantley and even a high end 'pen arm but there is 0 need for Donaldson, what don't we get?

Can you quickly explain why you think there is 0 need for Donaldson ? What if he leads the Tribe to the World Series ? He has to be highly motivated and needs to perform in order to get a decent contract over the winter and even if he doesn't perform well he still has to be considered a decent bounce back guy, has no QO attached to him , might come cheaper than we think.

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1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Can you quickly explain why you think there is 0 need for Donaldson ? What if he leads the Tribe to the World Series ? He has to be highly motivated and needs to perform in order to get a decent contract over the winter and even if he doesn't perform well he still has to be considered a decent bounce back guy, has no QO attached to him , might come cheaper than we think.

He's a decent bounce back guy, but he also has played only 36 games so far this season. He's as good of a bounce back candidate as he is a candidate to be a guy who hit a physical wall starting last year at age 31 when he played 113 games because of injury. He's been hurt for 1/4 of the year and 2/3 of the year over the last 2 seasons. Are you getting him at a huge discount and calling him nothing but a bounce back candidate, or are you outbidding 4 other teams for him based on what he did 2 years ago? Someone else dropped a >$20 million a year price for him in another thread. Is that the amount you'd gamble on a bounce back guy?

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23 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

He's a decent bounce back guy, but he also has played only 36 games so far this season. He's as good of a bounce back candidate as he is a candidate to be a guy who hit a physical wall starting last year at age 31 when he played 113 games because of injury. He's been hurt for 1/4 of the year and 2/3 of the year over the last 2 seasons. Are you getting him at a huge discount and calling him nothing but a bounce back candidate, or are you outbidding 4 other teams for him based on what he did 2 years ago? Someone else dropped a >$20 million a year price for him in another thread. Is that the amount you'd gamble on a bounce back guy?

Nope what other people drop is not whats in my play book. If he get's $20M (unless its just 1 year ) he's out of reach. But I'll be shocked if he does. Nothing last winter indicates older players will get much. The odd one here and there will. Maybe he is one of them maybe not. No sense discussing price now just have to see how the market reacts and how he finishes the year.

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4 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Nope what other people drop is not whats in my play book. If he get's $20M (unless its just 1 year ) he's out of reach. But I'll be shocked if he does. Nothing last winter indicates older players will get much. The odd one here and there will. Maybe he is one of them maybe not. No sense discussing price now just have to see how the market reacts and how he finishes the year.

I couldn't be mad about signing him if it was a 1 year, $15 million deal with an option or something like that, but that's not a deal that you sign guys to in order to compete for the wild card. It's a deal you sign just to fill a gap and to hopefully find a tradeable asset. Even if he had a great finish to the year I'd say the same thing - right now, you have to expect he's going to get hurt. If you're planning for him to be an MVP quality player again, you're very likely to be have overpaid and it's likely to sabotage your season.

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26 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I couldn't be mad about signing him if it was a 1 year, $15 million deal with an option or something like that, but that's not a deal that you sign guys to in order to compete for the wild card. It's a deal you sign just to fill a gap and to hopefully find a tradeable asset. Even if he had a great finish to the year I'd say the same thing - right now, you have to expect he's going to get hurt. If you're planning for him to be an MVP quality player again, you're very likely to be have overpaid and it's likely to sabotage your season.

I said nothing about an MVP season just a bounce back which means a healthy .800ish OPS and .340ish OBP. Not sure what you mean by sabotaging a season since if he comes discounted its not likely to sabotage anything. If he finishes the year healthy but not strong with the bat it might be even better since his health next year probably is tied directly to his bat and fielding. This year health  but a bad bat could just means he's rusty.

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1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

He's a decent bounce back guy, but he also has played only 36 games so far this season. He's as good of a bounce back candidate as he is a candidate to be a guy who hit a physical wall starting last year at age 31 when he played 113 games because of injury. He's been hurt for 1/4 of the year and 2/3 of the year over the last 2 seasons. Are you getting him at a huge discount and calling him nothing but a bounce back candidate, or are you outbidding 4 other teams for him based on what he did 2 years ago? Someone else dropped a >$20 million a year price for him in another thread. Is that the amount you'd gamble on a bounce back guy?

I was the person who you are referring to and the amount was 2/48 million dollars which would equate to 24 million a year. The point being is that we probably have about 40 million dollars committed to next year which is probably 100 million dollars less than if they were competitive.  I would rather have the White Sox try to use the room to sign higher average annual value but with lower years attached. It does not make me sleep better watching Yolmer Sanchez play third base while Jerry is making an extra 100 million dollars on the year because the White Sox are not investing in the team. Yes, that is alot per season but overall the dollar amount does not come with much long term risk. Donaldson was a 5 WAR player 2017, if he was healthy this year he would be paid in excess of 150 million dollars. He is not so it might be a good opportunity to improve the team.  

And if he is healthy for the first half of the year, you could easily flip him for young talent.  

 

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13 minutes ago, kwill said:

I was the person who you are referring to and the amount was 2/48 million dollars which would equate to 24 million a year. The point being is that we probably have about 40 million dollars committed to next year which is probably 100 million dollars less than if they were competitive.  I would rather have the White Sox try to use the room to sign higher average annual value but with lower years attached. It does not make me sleep better watching Yolmer Sanchez play third base while Jerry is making an extra 100 million dollars on the year because the White Sox are not investing in the team. Yes, that is alot per season but overall the dollar amount does not come with much long term risk. Donaldson was a 5 WAR player 2017, if he was healthy this year he would be paid in excess of 150 million dollars. He is not so it might be a good opportunity to improve the team.  

And if he is healthy for the first half of the year, you could easily flip him for young talent.  

 

The White Sox used a first round pick on a third baseman in the 2017 draft. I think they will just let Yolmer play there every day until Burger is ready. 

Also, I don't see the White Sox adding any significant payroll this offseason. Hell, they might even shed payroll by nontendering Avi and trading Abreau and Rondon. It might be time to embrace the tank for another 2 or 3 years. 

 

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Jake Burger will not be ready for another 2 years. At best he comes back in June and will at least a year and half of seasoning. That is "if" he is still able to play 3rd base which was a concern even before the multiple achilies tears. 

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4 hours ago, kwill said:

I was the person who you are referring to and the amount was 2/48 million dollars which would equate to 24 million a year. The point being is that we probably have about 40 million dollars committed to next year which is probably 100 million dollars less than if they were competitive.  I would rather have the White Sox try to use the room to sign higher average annual value but with lower years attached. It does not make me sleep better watching Yolmer Sanchez play third base while Jerry is making an extra 100 million dollars on the year because the White Sox are not investing in the team. Yes, that is alot per season but overall the dollar amount does not come with much long term risk. Donaldson was a 5 WAR player 2017, if he was healthy this year he would be paid in excess of 150 million dollars. He is not so it might be a good opportunity to improve the team.  

And if he is healthy for the first half of the year, you could easily flip him for young talent.  

 

It;s a stretch to say "if he was healthy he'd get $150M.  (assuming $25 for 6 years aged 33-38 seasons) The last 33 yr old I can find that signed at or above $150M was Miguel Cabrera for way more than $150 and that contract might turn out to be the dumbest contract in baseball .So far the Tigers got one year of Cabrera operating at his best. He is a shell of his former self because of the injuries that accompany his age.

No one want's to pay players based on past performance anymore .Anyone giving Donaldson more than $50M is taking a huge risk. I think he'd be lucky now to get a $50M 3 year offer.  I can see 2 years at $30-35M as something he might have to accept. Look at what a considerably younger Moustakas had to settle for last season.

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4 hours ago, kwill said:

Jake Burger will not be ready for another 2 years. At best he comes back in June and will at least a year and half of seasoning. That is "if" he is still able to play 3rd base which was a concern even before the multiple achilies tears. 

Really good take on Burger, Kwill. Sadly that is the reality of it. I know Yolmer is lite on hitting for a third baseman but the Burger injury makes me appreciate Yolmer that much more.

At this point I think it's likely we see Moncada move to third with Madrigal becoming the second baseman before we see Burger in a Sox uni. 

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Getting donaldson on the cheap wouldn't be bad but only if the contract reflects both a risk of diminished performance and lost playing time. Can't bank on him for more than 130 games anymore.

 

But if you get him for 3/40 or so it would be interesting even if it is just to trade him later.

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2 hours ago, dominik-keul@gmx.de said:

Getting donaldson on the cheap wouldn't be bad but only if the contract reflects both a risk of diminished performance and lost playing time. Can't bank on him for more than 130 games anymore.

 

But if you get him for 3/40 or so it would be interesting even if it is just to trade him later.

That's a lot of long term money for a guy who is one more short injury stint away from being untradeable and who we're talking about as a "bounce back/.800 OPS at 3b" candidate. 

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On 9/9/2018 at 7:18 AM, Balta1701 said:

That's a lot of long term money for a guy who is one more short injury stint away from being untradeable and who we're talking about as a "bounce back/.800 OPS at 3b" candidate. 

Don't get me wrong . A few years ago when everyone wanted Donaldson as a free agent who might fit into the Sox rebuilding plan I was one of the few who said he'd be too old and I got the typical "I think he will age well" comments back from a lot of guys here. Right now I think the rebuild is in trouble. The Sox have a bunch of stiffs in position players, Kopech got hurt and the next wave of minor league talent is still 2++ years away. Jose Rondon might be the only PP on the 40 who might need a longer look and I doubt he's anything special but worth a look and it probably will be at 3rd base.

So I am not that high on getting Donaldson. It's just while payroll is low this should be the exact time the Sox should start trying to get more viable candidates to be flipped in order to get some AA/AAA talent . As you know I wanted to do that more last year too. And you also know I think I was right because only Narvaez and Palka have stepped forward this year but they both have major deficiencies on defense.

Since it now appears we are another 2++ years away from competing and have a low payroll and FA prices are depressed it seems like the perfect time to take some chances on FA's.

You are really good at saying want you don't want the Sox to do but not real good at saying what you think they should do. I know you and SSK2 don't see eye to eye very much but he seems to be thinking along the same lines as you on this which is wait wait wait or try to sign Machado or Harper somehow thinking they can stick around fora long time while not realizing those guys are going to want opt outs. We also have to take into consideration that the longer we wait the better the chances of Reinsdorf dying and the new CBA negatively affecting our young talent. Right now I think every one of our position players plus Rodon ( Anderson and Moncada the possible exceptions) should be traded or non tendered because they don't fit the new pushed back window or just aren't very good. Try to load up on as much major league ready young talent as you can right now be it flops like Buxton or other guys like him who can play defense but the hitting hasn't developed yet. We have too many lumbering oxen.

Please put yourself out there with a plan as I have done. This is an older thread that has probably run it's course in a part of the season where no one is paying attention so I doubt your views will be attacked by anyone . Just a fan here trying my hardest to figure out what the Sox should do and I'd like other opinions.

 

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On 9/9/2018 at 9:18 AM, Balta1701 said:

That's a lot of long term money for a guy who is one more short injury stint away from being untradeable and who we're talking about as a "bounce back/.800 OPS at 3b" candidate. 

I'd rather just give 550 PAs to Rondon for cheap to see what he can do

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I’m starting to think Harper is a great idea.  Like priority A #1.   That way our OF depth in the minors can be used to acquire other players at other positions. Sign Arenado the next year and ship off outfielders to fill the final holes with all stars instead of veteran free agents like most teams have to.  

Basically OF is deep in our minors but why not make that a certainty?

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I think signing Josh Donaldson makes more sense than paying a high end reliever. The White Sox don't need to do that. They've built a pretty quality bullpen with drafts and trades. I'd roll with the young guys that they have. They can sign a veteran for down there but they don't need to spend $70-$80 million on a Kimbrel type. I also don't see them paying a high end starting pitcher. Dallas Keuchel and Patrick Corbin will cost $100 million. While I believe that the White Sox will spend more $$ in future years than we've ever seen spent, I doubt it will be spent on $100 million pitchers that don't slot in at the top of a rotation. I could see some stop gap starting pitching additions or maybe guys like Pomeranz or Eovaldi. I'm very curious to see their overall free agent approach. I think they make a run at the biggest fish. If they miss out though, I'm not sure they just start throwing money to fill gaps. They don't have the pitching to compete next year. They obviously should be better though. 

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5 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

I think signing Josh Donaldson makes more sense than paying a high end reliever. The White Sox don't need to do that. They've built a pretty quality bullpen with drafts and trades. I'd roll with the young guys that they have. They can sign a veteran for down there but they don't need to spend $70-$80 million on a Kimbrel type. I also don't see them paying a high end starting pitcher. Dallas Keuchel and Patrick Corbin will cost $100 million. While I believe that the White Sox will spend more $$ in future years than we've ever seen spent, I doubt it will be spent on $100 million pitchers that don't slot in at the top of a rotation. I could see some stop gap starting pitching additions or maybe guys like Pomeranz or Eovaldi. I'm very curious to see their overall free agent approach. I think they make a run at the biggest fish. If they miss out though, I'm not sure they just start throwing money to fill gaps. They don't have the pitching to compete next year. They obviously should be better though. 

With the sheer number of pitchers the White Sox traded for in their big deals, if the White Sox need to spend $100 million on a starting pitcher not named Carlos Rodon in the next 2 years I think we will be confidently saying the rebuild has been a disaster. If we can't pull together a starting rotation out of what we have in this organization and we need a top of the rotation starter, we're not going to be competing in the current window, that will mean way too many guys flopped or got hurt.

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20 hours ago, Greg Hibbard said:

Arenado after 2019 pls. That's all I want

Why would he sign with White Sox?  First, he loves it in Colorado; second, he is a West Coast kid.  IOW, 4 teams are in Calif, another in Phoenix.  Oakland would be out, but that leaves 5 teams preferable to Chicago.  I have my pipe dreams, this one is yours.

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51 minutes ago, oldsox said:

Why would he sign with White Sox?  First, he loves it in Colorado; second, he is a West Coast kid.  IOW, 4 teams are in Calif, another in Phoenix.  Oakland would be out, but that leaves 5 teams preferable to Chicago.  I have my pipe dreams, this one is yours.

Just like anyone they are going to have to win a bidding war. 

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1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

Just like anyone they are going to have to win a bidding war. 

My guess, based on nothing factual, just my own hunch, is that Rockies will offer Arenado a substantial extension this coming off season, especially if they decide to pass on Lemahieu, who becomes a FA this winter.  They don't want to lose both, plus they have some good young guys who can take over.

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