Moncada leading MLB in OOZ strike 3s

[GreenSox]

Stick to your guns, Moncada.  That will turn.  IN the meantime, work on fouling off pitches you don't like.

[skooch]

And, FWIW, here is a similar analysis for the five K leaders for the Sox. Caveat emptor: I'm like a kid with a new toy. Results not guaranteed 100% accurate. Also, please note that I am getting 50 OOZ K's for Yoan whereas the original tweet only cited 49.

	SO	K-swing	K-look	K-look-OOZ	% K OOZ
Moncada	196	124	72	50	69.44
Davidson	144	97	36	28	77.78
Anderson	135	116	15	13	86.67
Palka	130	102	25	13	52.00
Sanchez	115	78	24	19	79.17

 

[bmags]

40 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

Literally just correcting this would change his slashline to .247/.387/.431 with a 18.7% BB rate and a 25.0% K rate. In case anyone was wondering how badly the umps have screwed Moncada over this season, there's your answer.

Wait, how are you doing this? Are you turning all strikeouts into walks? 

[turnin' two]

4 hours ago, flavum said:

Hell no. The plate should swell within reason with two strikes. The unintended consequences of an automated strike zone would prove out to make the game less interesting and longer games...not shorter. Be careful what you wish for.

Now if you want to get better umpires that know how to call balls and strikes better than others, I'm all for it. But the human factor of balls and strikes makes the game better. Replay is great for safe/out though.

Have to disagree.   The strike zone should be the strike zone regardless of count.  That is a shame.  50 times the umps have taken the bat out of his hands with bad calls.  And that is just for strike 3.  That is almost 10% of his ABs.  Completely ridiculous.

[Balta1701]

I disagree that this is "the umps taking the bat out of his hands" or the stated point that this is something that will turn around on its own. The reason Moncada looks this bad in this number is that pitchers know THIS is an easy way to attack Moncada.

They know he's patient enough that if they throw good pitches early in the count, he may not attack them unless they make a mistake. If the pitcher gets ahead in the count, they also know that Moncada will not defend himself if the pitch is close, he will continue looking for a pitch he can drive. Moncada will not foul pitches off with 2 strikes to stay ahead if the pitch is close but unhittable, he will take that pitch. Other players will fight those pitches off or put them in play, Moncada won't.

So, if a pitcher gets ahead of Moncada, what do they do? They throw the ball just out of the strike zone a couple times and since Moncada won't defend himself, it's up to the quality of framing and how well the umpire sees it whether or not he strikes out. If they've got an 0-2 or 1-2 count, they can do that a few times and see if Moncada grabs some bench without him ever threatening to do damage.

If we replayed this season a hundred times, Moncada would still lead the league in this category. It's not because he's getting bad luck from the umps or that the umps just don't respect him (I guess it's possible there's a little bit of it in there it can't be ruled out completely), this is all about Moncada's approach. This is a major vulnerability for him. Unless there are robot umps adopted, any time he gets behind in the count, he's vulnerable to striking out looking because he won't defend on close pitches. You get ahead of him, you have a catcher that frames the ball acceptably, and you throw a pitch that is close, he'll grab some bench. 

Until Moncada's approach when behind in the count improves, he will lead the league in this every year.

[Jose Abreu]

24 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I disagree that this is "the umps taking the bat out of his hands" or the stated point that this is something that will turn around on its own. The reason Moncada looks this bad in this number is that pitchers know THIS is an easy way to attack Moncada.

They know he's patient enough that if they throw good pitches early in the count, he may not attack them unless they make a mistake. If the pitcher gets ahead in the count, they also know that Moncada will not defend himself if the pitch is close, he will continue looking for a pitch he can drive. Moncada will not foul pitches off with 2 strikes to stay ahead if the pitch is close but unhittable, he will take that pitch. Other players will fight those pitches off or put them in play, Moncada won't.

So, if a pitcher gets ahead of Moncada, what do they do? They throw the ball just out of the strike zone a couple times and since Moncada won't defend himself, it's up to the quality of framing and how well the umpire sees it whether or not he strikes out. If they've got an 0-2 or 1-2 count, they can do that a few times and see if Moncada grabs some bench without him ever threatening to do damage.

If we replayed this season a hundred times, Moncada would still lead the league in this category. It's not because he's getting bad luck from the umps or that the umps just don't respect him (I guess it's possible there's a little bit of it in there it can't be ruled out completely), this is all about Moncada's approach. This is a major vulnerability for him. Unless there are robot umps adopted, any time he gets behind in the count, he's vulnerable to striking out looking because he won't defend on close pitches. You get ahead of him, you have a catcher that frames the ball acceptably, and you throw a pitch that is close, he'll grab some bench. 

Until Moncada's approach when behind in the count improves, he will lead the league in this every year.

I think this would've been a good post in June. It's not accurate with his approach post-ASB, though. 

[turnin' two]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

I disagree that this is "the umps taking the bat out of his hands" or the stated point that this is something that will turn around on its own. The reason Moncada looks this bad in this number is that pitchers know THIS is an easy way to attack Moncada.

They know he's patient enough that if they throw good pitches early in the count, he may not attack them unless they make a mistake. If the pitcher gets ahead in the count, they also know that Moncada will not defend himself if the pitch is close, he will continue looking for a pitch he can drive. Moncada will not foul pitches off with 2 strikes to stay ahead if the pitch is close but unhittable, he will take that pitch. Other players will fight those pitches off or put them in play, Moncada won't.

So, if a pitcher gets ahead of Moncada, what do they do? They throw the ball just out of the strike zone a couple times and since Moncada won't defend himself, it's up to the quality of framing and how well the umpire sees it whether or not he strikes out. If they've got an 0-2 or 1-2 count, they can do that a few times and see if Moncada grabs some bench without him ever threatening to do damage.

If we replayed this season a hundred times, Moncada would still lead the league in this category. It's not because he's getting bad luck from the umps or that the umps just don't respect him (I guess it's possible there's a little bit of it in there it can't be ruled out completely), this is all about Moncada's approach. This is a major vulnerability for him. Unless there are robot umps adopted, any time he gets behind in the count, he's vulnerable to striking out looking because he won't defend on close pitches. You get ahead of him, you have a catcher that frames the ball acceptably, and you throw a pitch that is close, he'll grab some bench. 

Until Moncada's approach when behind in the count improves, he will lead the league in this every year.

If the strategy is to get the ump to call balls strikes, well then, more guys should use that strategy more often.  It is a baller move.  Doesn't seem like it should be a move that works that often though.

So it is a bad approach to not swing at balls out of the strike zone?  I kind of thought that was the point.  It shouldn't make him vulnerable.  A great discerning eye is an advantage.  A tremendous asset.  It shouldn't be a liability.

I just can't get behind coaching a guy into swinging at pitches that are out of the zone.  The way you hit the ball hard, and do damage, is to swing at hittable pitches that are in the hitting zone. 

This was his AB in the 8th last night

 

That pitch 5 or so inches off the plate was strike 3.  There is no way he should be swinging at that.  That is just a terrible call, plain and simple.  Saying he should be fighting that off is ridiculous.  That pitch is ball 4 plain and simple.  

[Dam8610]

2 hours ago, bmags said:

Wait, how are you doing this? Are you turning all strikeouts into walks? 

I subtracted 49 Ks (and 49 ABs, accordingly) and added 49 BBs.

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, turnin' two said:

 

That pitch 5 or so inches off the plate was strike 3.  There is no way he should be swinging at that.  That is just a terrible call, plain and simple.  Saying he should be fighting that off is ridiculous.  That pitch is ball 4 plain and simple.  

But that is 1 bad call. Everyone out there who has a full season is going to have 10 or so strikeouts on pitches that are just on terrible calls. Moncada isn't unusual in that. The reason why he's at the top of this list is NOT those strikeouts, everyone has them. The fact that he has struck out the most times on pitches out of the zone does not prove that all of those strikeouts happened on pitches 5 inches out of the zone. No one has analyzed the average distance to the zone on those 49 strikeouts, only that they are out of the zone. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

3 hours ago, skooch said:

And, FWIW, here is a similar analysis for the five K leaders for the Sox. Caveat emptor: I'm like a kid with a new toy. Results not guaranteed 100% accurate. Also, please note that I am getting 50 OOZ K's for Yoan whereas the original tweet only cited 49.

	SO	K-swing	K-look	K-look-OOZ	% K OOZ
Moncada	196	124	72	50	69.44
Davidson	144	97	36	28	77.78
Anderson	135	116	15	13	86.67
Palka	130	102	25	13	52.00
Sanchez	115	78	24	19	79.17

 

Ok so he's K'd looking 72 times total and of that 72 , 50 were out of the zone. Now I've seen data in tweets that might say something like that pitch is called a ball 30% of the time. I think any ball that's called a strike over 50% of the time we should consider it a strike while balls called a strike under 50% of the time should be classified as a ball to get a better feel of how accurate this is.

One thing we know for sure from those stats is his K's swinging are very high and that means his hit tool or eyesight or something else is wrong that prevents him from making more contact. His main problem is lack of contact with the ball . He needs to put way more balls into play however he achieves it, shorten his swing , bunt more , choke up , a different stance ,a leg kick. make him hit rocks with a broomstick, I don't care . Find something that helps him make more contact when he does swing. If you look at his hot zones it seems the only place where he gets hits is on pitches right down the middle. Good luck being a good player living off that. You have to be able to hit more than just the mistakes.

Edited September 13, 2018 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[southsider2k5]

I would also point out that this isn't just Yoan taking a lot of pitches. Moncada is actually 24th from the the bottom of league ( out of 146 qualified hitters) in swing rate at 41.2%. Joe Mauer has the lowest swing rate in baseball, but doesn't show up on the list. Neither do #2 or #3. In fact only two of this list show up in the top 20 for lowest swing rate. 

[TaylorStSox]

8 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I would also point out that this isn't just Yoan taking a lot of pitches. Moncada is actually 24th from the the bottom of league ( out of 146 qualified hitters) in swing rate at 41.2%. Joe Mauer has the lowest swing rate in baseball, but doesn't show up on the list. Neither do #2 or #3. In fact only two of this list show up in the top 20 for lowest swing rate. 

The thing people are missing with Yoan is that he has a really high maintenance approach that's going to take a while to develop. It's a lot easier for aggressive hitters to adjust to big league stuff and the big league zone. Moncada will be fine. 

[turnin' two]

55 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

But that is 1 bad call. Everyone out there who has a full season is going to have 10 or so strikeouts on pitches that are just on terrible calls. Moncada isn't unusual in that. The reason why he's at the top of this list is NOT those strikeouts, everyone has them. The fact that he has struck out the most times on pitches out of the zone does not prove that all of those strikeouts happened on pitches 5 inches out of the zone. No one has analyzed the average distance to the zone on those 49 strikeouts, only that they are out of the zone. 

Yeah,  I would love to see that data, and would be willing to bet Yoan has  significantly more K's on egregiously bad calls than average.  If there is somewhere to do that, I am not sure where it is.  

Either way, I can't see how him swinging at pitches that aren't strikes is a viable solution.  The guys that are routinely the best in the league are there because they know the K zone.  They know which pitches are strikes, they swing at them.  They know which pitches are balls, they let them go.  Yoan has shown a pretty good understanding of that zone.  I would prefer he keeps it that way.

[pcq]

5 hours ago, Dam8610 said:

Literally just correcting this would change his slashline to .247/.387/.431 with a 18.7% BB rate and a 25.0% K rate. In case anyone was wondering how badly the umps have screwed Moncada over this season, there's your answer.

I don"t think the umps always know where home plate is. You would think the most difficult part would be judging the height of low pitches but we see horizontal miscues quite often. 

[turnin' two]

1 hour ago, Dam8610 said:

I subtracted 49 Ks (and 49 ABs, accordingly) and added 49 BBs.

I may be misunderstanding the stat, but I don't believe they were all with a 3-2 count.  Just 2 strikes.  So turning them into walks may not be correct.

[Dam8610]

17 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

I may be misunderstanding the stat, but I don't believe they were all with a 3-2 count.  Just 2 strikes.  So turning them into walks may not be correct.

That's fair, I didn't think of that. I suppose he could still K if it wasn't a 3-2 count.

[SCCWS]

But the question is why does Yoan lead the league in this category?  There must be something in his stance that is somehow having a negative impact on the view of umpires.   

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

3 hours ago, Dam8610 said:

I subtracted 49 Ks (and 49 ABs, accordingly) and added 49 BBs.

Personally, I would have taken those 49 AB's and broken it up by Moncada's AVG, K% (when swinging), and BB% then added it into his slash line. There's no way all those calls would result in walks.

[Dominikk85]

It is not good but it probably also means that he takes a lot of borderline pitches and even strikes with two strikes. He is generally a rather passive hitter at 60% zone swing although he also does have a very good eye (23% Chase rate). Thus he probably got a reputation of being willing to take called strikes leading to close calls against him.

 

I would prefer robot umps too but so far it is not coming and umps don't appreciate players taking 2 strike pitches half an inch outside. You don't need to chase but general understanding is that with two strikes you don't let the umpire decide on pitches that are 1-2 inches outside the zone.

Imo moncada should be more aggressive within the zone. He should keep his Chase rate down but 60% zone swing is too low (league average is high 60s). For example votto is also very patient but he has a z swing rate of 68%, this means more hittable pitches going through.

But moncada also needs to increase his real strike zone he can handle. If you look at his heatmap you see he basically only hits down the pipe well

https://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=17232&position=2B&ss=&se=&hand=&count=&pitch=&season=&data=&blur=&grid=&view=&type=5

Having one hole is ok, but if you can just hit down the pipe that works in the minors but not in the majors.

His swing rates reflect that, he basically only swings a lot down the pipe and takes more than half of the strikes at all 4 edges. This is a good adjustment to make if you can't hit those pitches but as soon pitchers recognize that and locate there it becomes a losing strategy.

Moncada needs to hit pitches that are not down the pipe better, at least on two of the 4 eďges. I know you shouldn't make that comparison but here is trouts map.

Trout also has a hole (up) but he covers all of the lower edge (actually beyond the zone), inside (except up and in which nobody covers well) and like most the outer half.

https://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=10155&position=OF&ss=&se=&hand=&count=&pitch=&season=&data=&blur=&grid=&view=&type=5

Such a pattern is much harder to pitch to than moncada who can be attacked down, up or in. At this point moncada is basically a patient mistake crusher which has some value but limits his hit tool especially against good pitchers.

[Dominikk85]

Btw here is his distribution by statcast.

 

Called strike 3s:

 

Clearly in zone: 22

Slightly outside but on edge: 47

Way outside the zone: 3

Yeah he does get screwed some but he also takes a lot of strikes and borderline pitches. Against those 3 way outside he shouldn't swing but certainly at the 22 inside and probably at a lot of the 47 on the edges. He just takes a huge amount of pitches on the edges in and out of the zone.

He probably got screwed some on borderline pitches but even votto who has the best reputation in baseball got rung up 28 times on borderline pitches slightly outside.

But we can do the comparison:

Edge two strike pitches: 

 

Moncada

-ball 67

-strike 47

41% called strike

 

Votto 

-ball 57

-strike 28

33%

You can see that moncada got screwed some but this is compared to the guy with the best reputation in baseball. Compared to votto that cost him 10 looking Ks which is a lot but compared to the average player it is probably more like  4-5 which is still significant but not as big.

You can see he does get screwed some but it is not like he is rung up on pitches way outside a ton, it happened a handful of times but mostly he got rung up on strikes and close balls.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

4 hours ago, dominik-keul@gmx.de said:

It is not good but it probably also means that he takes a lot of borderline pitches and even strikes with two strikes. He is generally a rather passive hitter at 60% zone swing although he also does have a very good eye (23% Chase rate). Thus he probably got a reputation of being willing to take called strikes leading to close calls against him.

 

I would prefer robot umps too but so far it is not coming and umps don't appreciate players taking 2 strike pitches half an inch outside. You don't need to chase but general understanding is that with two strikes you don't let the umpire decide on pitches that are 1-2 inches outside the zone.

Imo moncada should be more aggressive within the zone. He should keep his Chase rate down but 60% zone swing is too low (league average is high 60s). For example votto is also very patient but he has a z swing rate of 68%, this means more hittable pitches going through.

But moncada also needs to increase his real strike zone he can handle. If you look at his heatmap you see he basically only hits down the pipe well

https://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=17232&position=2B&ss=&se=&hand=&count=&pitch=&season=&data=&blur=&grid=&view=&type=5

Having one hole is ok, but if you can just hit down the pipe that works in the minors but not in the majors.

His swing rates reflect that, he basically only swings a lot down the pipe and takes more than half of the strikes at all 4 edges. This is a good adjustment to make if you can't hit those pitches but as soon pitchers recognize that and locate there it becomes a losing strategy.

Moncada needs to hit pitches that are not down the pipe better, at least on two of the 4 eďges. I know you shouldn't make that comparison but here is trouts map.

Trout also has a hole (up) but he covers all of the lower edge (actually beyond the zone), inside (except up and in which nobody covers well) and like most the outer half.

https://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=10155&position=OF&ss=&se=&hand=&count=&pitch=&season=&data=&blur=&grid=&view=&type=5

Such a pattern is much harder to pitch to than moncada who can be attacked down, up or in. At this point moncada is basically a patient mistake crusher which has some value but limits his hit tool especially against good pitchers.

I literally made the same post 9 posts before yours only without the links to the heat maps.Basically he has no hit tool and can't hit anything but mistakes and swings and misses a ton. There is just too much evidence that Yoan has a real lot of hitting areas to work on and he may not ever be a good hitter just a mistake hitter guy.

If we are going to keep him and maximize his talent he needs a private hitting guru. I don't know who, but a small investment in a private tutor with a good rep isnt the worst thing you can do to maximize your investment.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

16 hours ago, TaylorStSox said:

The thing people are missing with Yoan is that he has a really high maintenance approach that's going to take a while to develop. It's a lot easier for aggressive hitters to adjust to big league stuff and the big league zone. Moncada will be fine. 

I've waited a long time to make up my mind on Moncada's future and I'm still pretty much undecided. I am however leaning towards him ending up not being anything special.

As an example I'll use Avisail Garcia. When Avi hit .330 last year he basically had a heat map where just about every part of the strike zone was hot. He's very good at hitting strikes for hits and had the speed that gave him a lot of infield hits. Yes his BABIP was extraordinarily high but the fact remains that he was making good contact with pitches in the strike zone. Even this year his heat map still suggests he hits fairly well on pitches in the zone. Avi's problem is pitch recognition and how he hits outside the zone. If Avi had Moncada's eye he'd be a superstar much like JD Martinez .

Moncada ,on the other hand, his heat map shows he's only good at hitting pitches right down the middle as evidenced by the links another poster gave. Moncada's problem is he can't make contact with most pitches in the zone as evidenced by his high swing and miss rates on pitches in the zone. He has even more speed than Avi while also having the advantage of hitting lefty most of the time. He should be getting 15-20 infield hits a year. Moncada basically has a ton of holes in his swing and has shown no ability thus far to make enough contact on pitches in the zone other than mistake pitches. Any little glimpses of hope we have seen from him probably was just a string of getting more mistakes to hit.

I haven't given up on him yet but his contact issues scare the hell out of me.

Edited September 13, 2018 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside
change wording regarding avi's infield hits

[Harry Chappas]

14 hours ago, SCCWS said:

But the question is why does Yoan lead the league in this category?  There must be something in his stance that is somehow having a negative impact on the view of umpires.   

He leads in this category becasue he takes too many pitches with 2 strikes.  He does not lead in the percentage of times an umpire blows the call.

 

If you look at Tim Anderson above he is really getting jobbed and he has a right to say he gets screwed by the umpire.  Moncada looks bad because it happens more often.

[thxfrthmmrs]

21 hours ago, Dam8610 said:

Literally just correcting this would change his slashline to .247/.387/.431 with a 18.7% BB rate and a 25.0% K rate. In case anyone was wondering how badly the umps have screwed Moncada over this season, there's your answer.

No one gets all strike 3's called correctly, so the hypothetical slash line is a fallacy. It's also common for umps to miss strike 3's that should have been called.

I bet if you run the numbers, Moncada would be near the top as well for strikeout looking on pitches in the zone. He just doesn't swing on 2 strikes, and it's been said many time already that he needs to learn to protect on 2 strikes and should not leave anything close to the zone to the umpires discretion. Just like the NBA, umpires in MLB will give benefit of the doubt to stars like Harper, Trout, or Votto, Moncada isn't there yet. He needs to learn to be a smarter hitter.

Edited September 13, 2018 by thxfrthmmrs

[ptatc]

1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I've waited a long time to make up my mind on Moncada's future and I'm still pretty much undecided. I am however leaning towards him ending up not being anything special.

As an example I'll use Avisail Garcia. When Avi hit .330 last year he basically had a heat map where just about every part of the strike zone was hot. He's very good at hitting strikes for hits and had the speed that gave him a lot of infield hits. Yes his BABIP was extraordinarily high but the fact remains that he was making good contact with pitches in the strike zone. Even this year his heat map still suggests he hits fairly well on pitches in the zone. Avi's problem is pitch recognition and how he hits outside the zone. If Avi had Moncada's eye he'd be a superstar much like JD Martinez .

Moncada ,on the other hand, his heat map shows he's only good at hitting pitches right down the middle as evidenced by the links another poster gave. Moncada's problem is he can't make contact with most pitches in the zone as evidenced by his high swing and miss rates on pitches in the zone. He has even more speed than Avi while also having the advantage of hitting lefty most of the time. He should be getting 15-20 infield hits a year. Moncada basically has a ton of holes in his swing and has shown no ability thus far to make enough contact on pitches in the zone other than mistake pitches. Any little glimpses of hope we have seen from him probably was just a string of getting more mistakes to hit.

I haven't given up on him yet but his contact issues scare the hell out of me.

Could some of this be that he is so passive that these are the only ones he swings at?