Zack Burdi Progress: Looking slower than pre-TJ

[bmags]

Note from the athletic today 😪

 

Quote

Burdi will be using the AFL more to get back to normal than as a great leap forward. After a small collection of AZL pitching appearances that were separated by two or three days, he’s going to try to return himself to normal bullpen usage in anticipation of a major league role in his near future. During his instructional league outing on Thursday, his fastball sat around 94 mph, which is where Eric Longenhagen had him at earlier in the season, a notable drop from the 97-101 mph range he gained notoriety for earlier in his career.

Over a year removed from Tommy John surgery, that’s not a normal deficit to be dealing with, and would put more stress on the life and command of his slider and changeup for him to be an impact reliever if it’s a long-term change. It’s still low-stress innings at instructs at this point and Burdi acknowledges he’s not all the way back yet, but it will be something to watch going forward.

https://theathletic.com/571707/2018/10/08/a-tour-of-white-sox-instructs-provides-a-snapshot-of-the-rebuild/

This is a monster article of notes, so I highly recommend:

Had stuff on robert, madrigal, stiever, dunning, lambert, bush, weaver, sosa, nunez, gonzalez, rutherford, zangari, basabe, hansen, puckett, steele walker, and more.

[Chicago White Sox]

Man this year was a disaster injury wise and the kicks just keep coming.

[bmags]

18 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Man this year was a disaster injury wise and the kicks just keep coming.

Yes, I'm a bit surprised this didn't panic some more folks. Fegan would be more nuanced if he needed to be, this was a pretty clear "things are bad" statement.

[Jerksticks]

I get that this is news but I can’t believe his velocity will matter until spring training 2020.  Take your time Burdi, get healthy and strong. 

[fathom]

Still puzzles me how his mechanics weren’t red-flagged prior to the draft. From the first time I saw his big velocity and slider from that angle, he looked like an elbow injury waiting to happen.  Hope he can regain his velocity, but that pocked was ridiculous at the time and looks worse even now.

[Jerksticks]

3 hours ago, fathom said:

Still puzzles me how his mechanics weren’t red-flagged prior to the draft. From the first time I saw his big velocity and slider from that angle, he looked like an elbow injury waiting to happen.  Hope he can regain his velocity, but that pocked was ridiculous at the time and looks worse even now.

I disagree it looked ridiculous at the time.  He represented a Safe Ceiling pick which is rare.  100mph that was close to playable in MLB.  That’s a super safe bet of getting huge value at that point in the draft.  I liked the pick better than some highschool kid with a similar loud tool.  

I understand why some people disliked the pick but have some patience; he might be something special even at 94-96 if that’s how it shakes out.  

 

[ron883]

Isn't it still pretty soon after his surgery? Not too worried about it at this point 

[fathom]

47 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

I disagree it looked ridiculous at the time.  He represented a Safe Ceiling pick which is rare.  100mph that was close to playable in MLB.  That’s a super safe bet of getting huge value at that point in the draft.  I liked the pick better than some highschool kid with a similar loud tool.  

I understand why some people disliked the pick but have some patience; he might be something special even at 94-96 if that’s how it shakes out.  

 

The only justification at the time for the pick is that some thought he might be able to be a starter due to his pitch mix. There’s a reason you never seen relievers picked high anymore.

[Jerksticks]

 He was drafted because of his wicked ass fastball, control and seen as close to major league ready.   He was not a reach by any means whatsoever IIRC.  

 

I still love the pick.  I get you don’t.  But placing blame or bashing the FO for anything related to Burdi just seems forced. 

Fulmer?  Have at it. Burdi?  Just no. 

[BigHurt3515]

6 hours ago, fathom said:

Still puzzles me how his mechanics weren’t red-flagged prior to the draft. From the first time I saw his big velocity and slider from that angle, he looked like an elbow injury waiting to happen.  Hope he can regain his velocity, but that pocked was ridiculous at the time and looks worse even now.

So did Sale and he has yet to have a elbow injury. You just can't predict that stuff

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

2 hours ago, BigHurt3515 said:

So did Sale and he has yet to have a elbow injury. You just can't predict that stuff

Fathom can.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

8 hours ago, Jerksticks said:

I get that this is news but I can’t believe his velocity will matter until spring training 2020.  Take your time Burdi, get healthy and strong. 

I mostly agree. If he comes out in 2019 and is still sitting low-mid 90s, then I'll be a *little* worried, but let's not pretend like all he had going for him was a hard fastball. He's not Thyiago Viera.

[bmags]

9 hours ago, Hot FiRe said:

Isn't it still pretty soon after his surgery? Not too worried about it at this point 

Literally bolded it for you. I’m not sure why spring training is some magic cure all, he had TJ 14 months ago. He’s been pitching since August. He’s lost 4mph off his fastball.

[ron883]

2 hours ago, bmags said:

Literally bolded it for you. I’m not sure why spring training is some magic cure all, he had TJ 14 months ago. He’s been pitching since August. He’s lost 4mph off his fastball.

So after 2 months of pitching he should be back to his normal velocity? Recovering from Tommy John's is that easy huh? 

[bmags]

19 minutes ago, Hot FiRe said:

So after 2 months of pitching he should be back to his normal velocity? Recovering from Tommy John's is that easy huh? 

Nobody said it was easy and I'm sure that there are a variety of recovery times, but on one hand you have the writer saying this deficit is larger than expected and it has not improved since he began pitching, and on the other you have you who are saying tommy john is hard and it doesn't matter just because it's october.

The value in burdi being a great reliever and just a reliever is a really big deal. The sox improving rapidly goes through a dominant, organic bullpen. Burdi not recovering to his top velos would be another blow to the rebuild effort.

[GreenSox]

13 hours ago, fathom said:

The only justification at the time for the pick is that some thought he might be able to be a starter due to his pitch mix. There’s a reason you never seen relievers picked high anymore.

That would be a justification, but they drafted him for the 2016 bullpen - they were still under the foggy spell that they were in the race.  The same delusion that brought Shields aboard.
Drafting ceiling relievers in Round 1 is inane.
 

Edited October 9, 2018 by GreenSox

[southsider2k5]

25 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

That would be a justification, but they drafted him for the 2016 bullpen - they were still under the foggy spell that they were in the race.  The same delusion that brought Shields aboard.
Drafting ceiling relievers in Round 1 is inane.
 

Sure, when it comes to old school thinking where the pen was an afterthought.  Things are changing with the emphasis on bullpens and as we approach the point where your pen throws as many innings as your starters do.

[Y2Jimmy0]

I hated the Burdi pick. I'm never going to be on board with taking definite relievers in round 1. Just not valuable enough. With that being said, he's still one of the best relief pitching prospects in the minors. I'm curious to see how he does in the AFL. 

[bmags]

12 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

I hated the Burdi pick. I'm never going to be on board with taking definite relievers in round 1. Just not valuable enough. With that being said, he's still one of the best relief pitching prospects in the minors. I'm curious to see how he does in the AFL. 

Yeah, and Zack being a local kid I root for him. But those supplemental picks were just the ideal spot for some high ceiling HS talent, too, especially for a risk averse group like our FO. Carter Kieboom, Taylor Trammel and Joey Wentz all went after Burdi.

[Y2Jimmy0]

7 minutes ago, bmags said:

Yeah, and Zack being a local kid I root for him. But those supplemental picks were just the ideal spot for some high ceiling HS talent, too, especially for a risk averse group like our FO. Carter Kieboom, Taylor Trammel and Joey Wentz all went after Burdi.

Completely agreed. 

[GreenSox]

2 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

Sure, when it comes to old school thinking where the pen was an afterthought.  Things are changing with the emphasis on bullpens and as we approach the point where your pen throws as many innings as your starters do.

They still aren't drafting and won't draft ceiling relievers, particularly college relievers,  in round 1.

I will also point out that the Sox have traded 4 really good relievers in the last 2 years (the 3 traded in 2017 were having exceptional seasons) and got basically Rutherford for them.  Now part of that isn't the value of the relieves but FO skill (or lack therefor).

Edited October 9, 2018 by GreenSox

[southsider2k5]

Just now, GreenSox said:

They still aren't drafting and won't draft ceiling relievers in round 1.

I will also point out that the Sox have traded 4 really good relievers in the last 2 years (the 3 traded in 2017 were having exceptional seasons) and got basically Rutherford for them.  Now part of that isn't the value of the relieves but FO skill (or lack therefor).

They got a top 100 guy for Kahnle and Robertson.  Robertson was maxed out in value because he had a $13m annual deal attached to him.  Tommy Kahnle ended up being so bad that the Yankees sent him down.

Soria was not " a really good reliever".  He was so worthless that the Sox were given him AND Luis Avilian for the simple act of being willing to pay Soria.  The Sox turned him into a serviceable middle reliever that they turned into 3 much better prospects than what they started out with in Jake Peter.

The 4th guy I am not even sure who you are referring to.  If it is Swarzak, all you have to do is look at where the Sox sold on him to know they also sold him at his top value.  If it is Dan Jennings I might just laugh at you.

[Jose Abreu]

On 10/8/2018 at 4:56 PM, bmags said:

Yes, I'm a bit surprised this didn't panic some more folks. Fegan would be more nuanced if he needed to be, this was a pretty clear "things are bad" statement.

The vibe I get from pretty much every Fegan article that isn't about Nick Madrigal is "things are bad", to be honest 

[BamaDoc]

New article today in the Athletic by Fegan on Burdi.  They are hoping for further velocity return but currently working on pitching command vs throwing.  It does confirm the velocity drop.

[Dominikk85]

Drafting high floor relievers late in the first round was a trend 3-4 years ago. Teams went away from it though because many of those relievers tended to not hit their projected floor. The idea was nice because a high level reliever is worth 1.5 to 2 war and a late round position player projects about for the same but the problem is not many relievers become that good.

 

Generally the outcome of a late round first rounder isn't all that good. Some become good but many just end up as bench pieces and there isn't an easy solution around that.