Market/Financial Thread

[bmags]

Very good that support was added for those coming from self-employment/contractor work. Feds picking up full bill (since states do not pay that out) at a level that will keep people afloat.

[Texsox]

Reacting to the changing work place is important. My school district announced they would be paying our substitutes while we were distance learning. That made me very happy. 

[caulfield12]

3.28 million weekly unemployment claims...

Well, at least it wasn't over 4?

The predictions were all over the place, starting in the 1.6 million range.    Well, at least we set another economic record, there's that.

Edited March 26, 2020 by caulfield12

[Balta1701]

 

[southsider2k5]

It is an unreal time to be alive. 

[Kyyle23]

5 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

It is an unreal time to be alive. 

Just saw the Emergency Broadcast System break in on ABC because Lightfoot is issuing an emergency shelter in place order for cook county tonite.  Super creepy

[southsider2k5]

11 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

Just saw the Emergency Broadcast System break in on ABC because Lightfoot is issuing an emergency shelter in place order for cook county tonite.  Super creepy

I have read and watched tons on history.  Things like the Plague, 1918 flu, as well as the Great Depression and the Dark Ages, etc. I often wondered about what it would have been like to live through them. Now we might be finding out. 

[Heads22]

So, a couple years ago I started using Vanguard to fund a ROTH as well as, eventually, just a normal brokerage account.

 

When my mom passed away last year, I inherited half her retirement thru Ameriprise. (A ROTH and traditional IRA as well as a brokerage). I talked to them today, as this year I was supposed to start taking RMDs (which is now apparently delayed til 2021 due to the stimulus).

I know the benefits of using a company like Vanguard and using low cost index funds, etc. However, during my call today they pitched consolidating my stuff into Ameriprise.

Do any of you feel there are real benefits to having stuff your stuff managed as opposed to using a company like Vanguard?

[southsider2k5]

6 minutes ago, Heads22 said:

So, a couple years ago I started using Vanguard to fund a ROTH as well as, eventually, just a normal brokerage account.

 

When my mom passed away last year, I inherited half her retirement thru Ameriprise. (A ROTH and traditional IRA as well as a brokerage). I talked to them today, as this year I was supposed to start taking RMDs (which is now apparently delayed til 2021 due to the stimulus).

I know the benefits of using a company like Vanguard and using low cost index funds, etc. However, during my call today they pitched consolidating my stuff into Ameriprise.

Do any of you feel there are real benefits to having stuff your stuff managed as opposed to using a company like Vanguard?

For my two cents I would avoid a managed plan if you have even a minimal amount of self discipline.  Invest in about 75% SPY and 25% in some sort of a low fee, high quality corporate bond fund, and then don't touch it for 5 years. Every 5 years, sell 5% of you SPY and move to bonds. By the time you get close to retirement,  your holdings should have basically flipped and reversed. 

If you feel adventurous and have other retirement money, take 5 or 10% of your money out of the SPY and use that to chase your hot stock tips and whims. 

Realistically by using the top formula you are going to outperform overall fund returns on a really long term basis, but still have some safety built in.

If you don't feel like you can follow a plan like this and don't want to risk it, move into a managed plan.  But it will cost you 2 to 3% of your money annually to do it. 

[caulfield12]

32 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

For my two cents I would avoid a managed plan if you have even a minimal amount of self discipline.  Invest in about 75% SPY and 25% in some sort of a low fee, high quality corporate bond fund, and then don't touch it for 5 years. Every 5 years, sell 5% of you SPY and move to bonds. By the time you get close to retirement,  your holdings should have basically flipped and reversed. 

If you feel adventurous and have other retirement money, take 5 or 10% of your money out of the SPY and use that to chase your hot stock tips and whims. 

Realistically by using the top formula you are going to outperform overall fund returns on a really long term basis, but still have some safety built in.

If you don't feel like you can follow a plan like this and don't want to risk it, move into a managed plan.  But it will cost you 2 to 3% of your money annually to do it. 

Why sector SPY compared to a combination of Vanguard 500, vivax, vtsax, small/midcap/Russell, international or emerging markets and REITs?

For someone in their 30’s and 40’s, aren’t bond returns going to be so negligible the next 3-5 years...that it might be better to put that 20-25% in a CD at around 4%?
 

In the situation described above, the cost basis resets from original number to the date when it’s inherited, yes?

 

 

[southsider2k5]

8 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Why sector SPY compared to a combination of Vanguard 500, vivax, vtsax, small/midcap/Russell, international or emerging markets and REITs?

For someone in their 30’s and 40’s, aren’t bond returns going to be so negligible the next 3-5 years...that it might be better to put that 20-25% in a CD at around 4%?
 

In the situation described above, the cost basis resets from original number to the date when it’s inherited, yes?

 

 

I can't speak on the taxes, so I won't.

SPY is the ETF that tracks the SP500.  It essentially has no cost after you purchase it.  Funds have costs, and those fees are subtracted out from your accounts.  You are quite literally giving yourself the return of the SP for no cost.  Except for maybe the Dow, the other indexes are much more volatile, and over the really long term haven't had the same rates of returns.  Personally I wouldn't touch international for a long time, but that is just a preference as their economies are no where near as healthy as ours, and that should scare everyone.

[caulfield12]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-29/a-global-consumer-default-wave-is-just-getting-started-in-china

[Jerksticks]

You down with PPP?  Anybody else hacking through it yet?  Stayed up all night and think I got a pretty good handle on it but...

it looks like you can take any IC or Sole-Prop you made payments to in the last year and add them to your payroll costs??!

that can’t be right, can it?  

[caulfield12]

Anticipating 4.25-4.75 million additional UNE claims.

That means in two weeks we’re jumping to something like a 8.5-9.25% unemployment rate.   1.5 million claims roughly equivalent to a 1% point shift upwards.

Goldman most recently projected peak at 15%, but high teens or low twenties still feels quite possible depending on hiw the next month plays out.

The labor force available for employment is going to be cut some due to deaths/attrition/people dropping out...but those are still massive numbers.

Seems the president is convinced we can just keep borrowing at 0% interest and get another $2-3 million for infrastructure projects.   We shall see if his own party in Congress will go along with that one.

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/ken-griffin-real-estate-nyc-apartment-record-chicago-london-miami-2019-1
Maybe we can convince Ken Griffin to buy the White Sox...does he like sports at all?

Edited April 1, 2020 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

6.648 million UNE claims

Converting into a percentage, that’s roughly 10.5% right now.   Rise of 7% in less than one month.

Seems 15% bottom is going to end up on the conservative side.

Edited April 2, 2020 by caulfield12

[Soxbadger]

On 3/18/2020 at 11:51 AM, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

I bought my first house last April with a 5.25% rate. Should I be refinancing right now? What are the downsides? Upfront costs? We only planning on staying in this house for another 3-4 years before we likely build a home.

Do they freeze our credit again and run credit checks like they did when we first bought the house? We are getting married in September and my fiance just got laid off her job 3 weeks ago. It's hard to google this stuff without knowing if it's a website/person just trying to get my business.

Just as an fyi, rates are back down to almost historic lows. Look around, I was able to get a 3.25 on a 30. 

[southsider2k5]

6 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

6.648 million UNE claims

Converting into a percentage, that’s roughly 10.5% right now.   Rise of 7% in less than one month.

Seems 15% bottom is going to end up on the conservative side.

Its actually a rise of about 300%, or 7 percentage points.

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

Its actually a rise of about 300%, or 7 percentage points.

I meant literally....from 3.5 to 10-10.5%.   Should have clarified.    Some states, like Texas, it’s up 1,600% in two weeks.  In this case, it’s probably more accurate to go state by state, and also simply trying to intuit states that aren’t capable of reporting accurate numbers of claims due to online crashes and inability to get through via the phone numbers.

[Texsox]

I believe we shouldn't lose sight of the post virus predictions. The numbers will be higher than pre virus as some companies will not survive, but I doubt it will be double digits. 

[southsider2k5]

Just now, Texsox said:

I believe we shouldn't lose sight of the post virus predictions. The numbers will be higher than pre virus as some companies will not survive, but I doubt it will be double digits. 

I would bet on double digits.  Even if it isn't reflected in U3 because of technicalities, it will be in U6.  2020 is going to be bad economically, especially for small businesses who depend on foot traffic.

[Texsox]

I'm probably more optimistic about the stimulus package keeping businesses afloat. 

[Dick Allen]

I have a 401k through work, and when I started working my dad funded an IRA for me. I keep an eye on the 401k, but haven’t really looked at the IRA much. I just got my quarterly statement today ,decided to take a peak,and OUCH. It will come back by the time I need it, so I am not worried, but if I was a year or two from retirement, my inaction would have probably meant at least another year of working if not more.

[Heads22]

1 minute ago, Dick Allen said:

I have a 401k through work, and when I started working my dad funded an IRA for me. I keep an eye on the 401k, but haven’t really looked at the IRA much. I just got my quarterly statement today ,decided to take a peak,and OUCH. It will come back by the time I need it, so I am not worried, but if I was a year or two from retirement, my inaction would have probably meant at least another year of working if not more.

Yeah, I looked at the stuff I got from my mom. There was most definitely a flattening of the curve there. Yeesh.

[caulfield12]

Somehow the Dow was up nearly 1,000 points but has since fallen back a bit...pretty astounding that it’s so disconnected from all these truly horrific daily statistics representing nearly aspects of everyday American life.

[StrangeSox]

I think rates in some of the other global hotspots are slowing down? Which is a sign at least that the clamp down measures are working to mitigate against the worst estimates. Doesn't mean we'll be back to "normal" any time soon, but it means there is at least improvement in that fewer people are dying.