Rosenthal: “rival exec believe white Sox will spend big”

[bmags]

Per the athletic:

“• Rebuilding teams such as the Reds and White Sox, finally tired of losing 95-plus games, are likely to spend and maybe even spend big. One rival executive views the White Sox as a sleeper for Machado, whom they pursued heavily in a trade last offseason. The Twins and Angels, two other teams coming off disappointing seasons (and like the Reds, proceeding with new managers), are among the others that should fall into the category of “motivated.””

 

link: https://theathletic.com/633974/2018/11/05/rosenthal-harper-machado-and-shifting-dynamics-in-the-market-will-make-the-offseason-a-parade-of-crazy/

[Whisox05]

Are the #WhiteSox gearing up for a run at Manny Machado this winter? #MLBNHotStove https://t.co/IAbyiE5TwM

[thxfrthmmrs]

I hope all these early speculations of Sox being a serious contender isn't used to drive up bidding from Manny's preferred destination.

[Real]

lol

[Orlando]

The White Sox will shock us all. 

[bmags]

4 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

I hope all these early speculations of Sox being a serious contender isn't used to drive up bidding from Manny's preferred destination.

I think it's a few things:

- Immediately after the WS there was a clear push by execs to push down pricing narrative

- I think this is a corrective in that vein of "there are more teams that want to sign these guys than the yankees, cubs and dodgers" that could drive price up.

I agree with everyone. I find it incredible that sox would actually get to finish line in a bidding war that goes north of $300 million but also that I think the sox are set-up to do it and have desire so no use being too cynical on it.

[thxfrthmmrs]

9 minutes ago, bmags said:

I think it's a few things:

- Immediately after the WS there was a clear push by execs to push down pricing narrative

- I think this is a corrective in that vein of "there are more teams that want to sign these guys than the yankees, cubs and dodgers" that could drive price up.

I agree with everyone. I find it incredible that sox would actually get to finish line in a bidding war that goes north of $300 million but also that I think the sox are set-up to do it and have desire so no use being too cynical on it.

I am in the camp that Sox have the resource to bid $300 mil +, and are interested in Manny, we're going to see a lot of these rumors from rival execs and even Manny's people. But I don't think they will end up pulling the trigger if the price gets to that point

[turnin' two]

One thing the Sox have going for them is the lack of payroll currently.  They could front load a contract, offering something like 40 million in the early years of the deal.  Most of these huge deals have money that is deferred, which, devalues the money, a dollar in your pocket is more valuable today, than if it got there a year from now.  Front loading would have the opposite effect, where the 40 million in year one, would essentially be more valuable than 50 million or so in year 10.  That is a way, where if 2 teams are offering 350 million in total, the Sox, not having any significant payroll obligations right now, could differentiate themselves by front loading the deal, offering the same or a similar amount in total, but more in value.

[Bob Sacamano]

1 minute ago, turnin' two said:

One thing the Sox have going for them is the lack of payroll currently.  They could front load a contract, offering something like 40 million in the early years of the deal.  Most of these huge deals have money that is deferred, which, devalues the money, a dollar in your pocket is more valuable today, than if it got there a year from now.  Front loading would have the opposite effect, where the 40 million in year one, would essentially be more valuable than 50 million or so in year 10.  That is a way, where if 2 teams are offering 350 million in total, the Sox, not having any significant payroll obligations right now, could differentiate themselves by front loading the deal, offering the same or a similar amount in total, but more in value.

Only thing that sucks about front loading the deals is it gives the player more incentive to opt-out later since he could probably get more. And this deal will have opt outs.

[turnin' two]

1 minute ago, soxfan2014 said:

Only thing that sucks about front loading the deals is it gives the player more incentive to opt-out later since he could probably get more. And this deal will have opt outs.

That would definitely be a sticking point with front loading it.  You would maybe have to structure the deal something like 40-40-40-15-15 (so 5/150).  After year 5 give the opt out.  Then start to front load a bit more after that 35-35-35--30-22.5-22.5 (another 6/180 for a total of 11-330).  That gives the player the front loading up front on the first 5 and second 5 of the deal, but gives the team some value in years 4/5 and 10/11.  The numbers in years 4/5 have to be a bit lower to protect the team from being completely taken by the out clause.  Would a guy like Harper or Machado opt in to that 2nd contract?  Tough to say at this point, but a 6 year 180 deal would still be nothing to sneeze at.  The team could also work in mutual options with escalators.  So if the player opts out, the team can opt in boosting each year by 5 mil or some such.  Without an opt out, I would be willing to keep that higher rate for a longer time.  Something like 40-40-40-40-35-35-30-20-20-15-15 (The same 11/330.  Then the payments toward the back of the contract would decline along with the likely contributions of the player).  I haven't done the math, but I would guess either of these structures would offer more value in pocket than a straight 30/year.

[SonofaRoache]

35 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

Only thing that sucks about front loading the deals is it gives the player more incentive to opt-out later since he could probably get more. And this deal will have opt outs.

We will front load your deal, but you get your opt out after year 5 instead of  4. The Sox knew last year he was gonna cost 300-350 million and they still wanted him. They shouldn't be surprised by anything with his movement. He would have more value to us than any other team because he'd be our first super star and face of the franchise. He will get us wins, other FA's, and excitement around the team and rebuild. Positive momentum and vibes are huge. 

Edited November 5, 2018 by SonofaRoache

[Sleepy Harold]

Sox also mentioned as potential suitors for both Machado & Harper in here as well. 

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/manny-machado-bryce-harper-markets-take-shape/c-300231462

[Eminor3rd]

A front loaded deal would absolutely mean more money for the player. That’s why you so rarely see them. The team knows this, and the players, I think, are typically more driven by the optics of their salary than actually maximizing it. To them, being rich isn’t much different than being a little more rich. 

It’s what makes the pop culture meme of the Bonilla deal so hilarious. It’s seen as a quintessential “LOLMets” move that gets brought up every year to denigrate the franchise, when in reality it’s one of the smartest things they ever did, economically. Basically, someone outbid them for a player they wanted. Instead of spending more than they could afford, they deferred the hell out of their return offer. If they hadn’t done that, they just would have had to pay him way more initially than they really did (or miss out on him). 

The Scherzer deal is going to turn into the same thing. Fans are going to make fun of the nationals for paying him ten million bucks a year not to play for him, when in reality the Lerners got the man they wanted while paying probably $30M less than the sticker price appeared simply by gaming inflation. 

Edited November 5, 2018 by Eminor3rd

[southsider2k5]

Not a big surprise after hearing what Hahn has been saying for months, but still nice to see it out in public now.

[Buehrlesque]

46 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

Only thing that sucks about front loading the deals is it gives the player more incentive to opt-out later since he could probably get more. And this deal will have opt outs.

But you could argue it would be better to have Machado for three years/$39 mil per than either a. not at all or b. 10 years with riskier performance and a higher bar to meet for a potential albatross contract.

[bmags]

8 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Not a big surprise after hearing what Hahn has been saying for months, but still nice to see it out in public now.

Yeah but there has been such a disconnect between local (white sox) expectations and national it was noteworthy to me.

[Lillian]

I actually favor a deal that is front loaded, with an opt out, providing that the opt out is far enough into the deal to provide the prime years of a player. The most significant advantage for the team is that it provides an incentive for the player to continue to strive hard toward excellence. The other advantage is that if things don't work out, the contract becomes easier to move.

Giving anyone $350 million, or more, guaranteed is really testing a player's character and dedication to his job. I certainly wouldn't want to trust Machado to meet that challenge.

[Lillian]

34 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

That would definitely be a sticking point with front loading it.  You would maybe have to structure the deal something like 40-40-40-15-15 (so 5/150).  After year 5 give the opt out.  Then start to front load a bit more after that 35-35-35--30-22.5-22.5 (another 6/180 for a total of 11-330).  That gives the player the front loading up front on the first 5 and second 5 of the deal, but gives the team some value in years 4/5 and 10/11.  The numbers in years 4/5 have to be a bit lower to protect the team from being completely taken by the out clause.  Would a guy like Harper or Machado opt in to that 2nd contract?  Tough to say at this point, but a 6 year 180 deal would still be nothing to sneeze at.  The team could also work in mutual options with escalators.  So if the player opts out, the team can opt in boosting each year by 5 mil or some such.  Without an opt out, I would be willing to keep that higher rate for a longer time.  Something like 40-40-40-40-35-35-30-20-20-15-15 (The same 11/330.  Then the payments toward the back of the contract would decline along with the likely contributions of the player).  I haven't done the math, but I would guess either of these structures would offer more value in pocket than a straight 30/year.

That 11 year proposed contract makes sense to me. It offers the player a chance to make even more than the $330 million, if he is still performing at a high level and salaries have remained where they are now, or have risen. He would have earned $260 million, in those first 7 years, and could opt out, to seek more money, elsewhere. In fact, why not give him an opt out after 5 or 6 years, if the player asked for it?

Edited November 5, 2018 by Lillian

[Y2Jimmy0]

The White Sox have been working on the pitch to Manny Machado with presentation and all for weeks. He's their target. It's reached the National Media now. 

[Jose Abreu]

1 minute ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

The White Sox have been working on the pitch to Manny Machado with presentation and all for weeks. He's their target. It's reached the National Media now. 

And an interest in Harper has reached the media too, which I find interesting because we haven't heard that from you or any of the local guys.

 

Which is why I suppose it could just be conjecture or us being used for leverage. 

[bmags]

"Manny, here is a Hawk Harrelson alarm clock and, get ready, we'd like you to meet Southpaw, our mascot. Please clap."

[ChiSox1917]

I keep going back and forth on who id prefer between machado and harper.  Machado fills a bigger need but he also seems like the type that may turn into a hanley ramirez.  Harper doesnt fit a need, but i think he’ll age better and hes the face of baseball which would be huge for getting more national attention.  

[Bob Sacamano]

What are people referring to exactly when they say Bryce Harper doesn't fill a need? I'd love to sign him and at least assure one of the OF spots going forward.

Edited November 5, 2018 by soxfan2014

[Lillian]

1 minute ago, ChiSox1917 said:

I keep going back and forth on who id prefer between machado and harper.  Machado fills a bigger need but he also seems like the type that may turn into a hanley ramirez.  Harper doesnt fit a need, but i think he’ll age better and hes the face of baseball which would be huge for getting more national attention.  

Harper does, in fact, fit a need. He provides that much needed, middle of the order, left handed bat.

[TheFutureIsNear]

If we are going to go out and spend $, then get 2 guys...I don’t really want to watch Machado turn the Sox into an 80 win team with not enough talent around him. 

 

Id rather have Corbin and Pollack