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2018-9 MLB off season free agency thread


southsider2k5
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5 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Agreed. 

I disagree, velocity based pitchers as a they get older if they don’t learn how to pitch rather than throw end up having sharp declines. Keuchel’s of this world should project to age better. I’d want two years at 40 mil with a 3rd year if we want it at same price.  That way if I am wrong we haven’t spent the world. 

 

It if he’s not up for something along those lines I’d keep our draft pick (3rd round pick I think).

 

earlier in the off season I wanted him plus others, but Keuchel’s deal was de-escalating (20 mil, 18mil is etc) for five years so that if all our young pitchers hit we can deal him with a good return as he gets cheaper. We can steal him for an even lower prices now.

 

mostly I want him for The beard!!!

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This was a bargain hunting excercise for me. At full price...nah, it's a pass. But if he can be below market rate it really solidifies the staff and forces the fringe guys to really compete. He isn't perfect, but I would rather have him than Bumgardner, because Sale and Cole won't be in JRs price range...

Edited by EloyJenkins
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1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

If this post link works - his velocity is noticeably down after 2015. 2016-2018 it held pretty steady but it dropped after his Cy Young season. 

I stand corrected.  I was quickly looking at his main page on Fangraphs and didn't appear to be a dip on his four seamer or cutter but there was a drop on the sinker which is obviously his most important pitch which I didn't take a close look at. 

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1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

If this post link works - his velocity is noticeably down after 2015. 2016-2018 it held pretty steady but it dropped after his Cy Young season. 

Right and really you have to just hope he can stay above 90. But even if he goes to high 80s, you could be looking at some late era bartolo colon seasons (mets hopefully) which are still not particularly bad if you are getting a 3 year contract at decent rates. If he maintains though you could either have a productive, stable vet that you could trade if team is sucking. If he is ivan nova, then I still think you can get out of the contract and it was just worth a shot.

But he may still be looking for 80 mill, I have no idea. At that price no thanks.

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22 hours ago, shago said:

Run away as fast as you can, velocity decline, throw to contact / "grounder" pitcher at Gtd HR Field = bad idea

Nope. He’s around the same velocity he’s been his whole career, never topped 90 MPH average. Groundball pitcher isn’t a bad idea at GRF to limit homeruns.

If he could be had for #3 starter money on a 3 year deal, I wouldn’t mind going for it.

 

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2 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

Nope. He’s around the same velocity he’s been his whole career, never topped 90 MPH average. Groundball pitcher isn’t a bad idea at GRF to limit homeruns.

If he could be had for #3 starter money on a 3 year deal, I wouldn’t mind going for it.

 

Qualifying offers can tend to hurt free agent's value as well. I wonder if no QO was attached how the market for Kimbrel/Keuchel would be. 

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36 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

Qualifying offers can tend to hurt free agent's value as well. I wonder if no QO was attached how the market for Kimbrel/Keuchel would be. 

Yeah it doesnt really seem like the de escalation from giving up a 1st rounder to giving up a 2nd rounder (in most cases) has changed anything. 

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40 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

Qualifying offers can tend to hurt free agent's value as well. I wonder if no QO was attached how the market for Kimbrel/Keuchel would be. 

If the Sox believe their window is starting next year then a 2nd round pick is small price to pay for a mid rotation veteran with how much uncertainty we have in our rotation. With the price that comp picks have been traded for, we could always acquire one later if we have the need to.

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On 3/5/2019 at 11:40 AM, Colinski said:

I disagree, velocity based pitchers as a they get older if they don’t learn how to pitch rather than throw end up having sharp declines. Keuchel’s of this world should project to age better. I’d want two years at 40 mil with a 3rd year if we want it at same price.  That way if I am wrong we haven’t spent the world. 

 

It if he’s not up for something along those lines I’d keep our draft pick (3rd round pick I think).

 

earlier in the off season I wanted him plus others, but Keuchel’s deal was de-escalating (20 mil, 18mil is etc) for five years so that if all our young pitchers hit we can deal him with a good return as he gets cheaper. We can steal him for an even lower prices now.

 

mostly I want him for The beard!!!

Btw Chris Sale and Dylan Cease we already see that teams want to promote pitchers before they have used up a lot of pitches in the minors. Too many of them don't last. I expect the Bosox will offer Chris 4-5 years. 

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15 hours ago, teorey23 said:

The Sox are best suited to sit out the rest of free agency. Getting Machado-Harper were gonna determine whether they would make other moves but we all know what happened there... They are best suited looking to trade off guys now. 

Completely disagree  . Some good guys left and they are going to have to sign somewhere. and more than likely for less than they want. Time to hit the clearance rack.

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