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mmmmmbeeer

If you're Rick Hahn and not just a fan...

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Do you really want to commit 10 years of big money to a single player, be it Machado or Harper?  And if you do, which player are you most willing to break the bank for?

Channeling my inner-Hahn, there's no way in hell I'm giving either of these guys $35M+ every year for the next 10.  They're both impact players, and Machado is a perfect fit for this current roster, but that's A LOT of money that is sure to hamstring this franchise in 5 years' time.  If any of our up and coming players, say Eloy, hits FA and we can't sign him due to over-the-hill Machado or Harper contracts, how do you not second-guess the decision to sign those guys?

I'd rather give things another year to shake out and learn what we really have with our young guys before committing big money to any player, Harper especially due to our glut of OF prospects.  Our farm is SO loaded that the potential is there to create a homegrown contender without big FA signings.  If this proves to be the case and only midrange FAs are required to help round out super-talented homegrown rosters, you can extend the reach of any potential dynasty by retaining that homegrown talent using the money you saved by not signing marquis FA.  

I'd rather take that $35-40M annually to build badass bullpens during our early, cost-controlled contending years than waste it on a single player.  

 

 

 

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From a strictly analytic point of view, signing either of these two players is likely NOT going to pay back and it likely has a high chance of being a disaster in terms of pay back.

However, even as an analytics proponent, I don't even care -- I want to watch Bryce Harper in a White Sox uniform for the next 5+ years. 

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So you’re concerned that giving a 10 year contract to a 26 year free agent will prevent us from paying market value for a 29 year old free agent seven years from now?

Edited by Chicago White Sox

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I used Eloy as an example.  

Look up on the northside as an example of what one bad contract can do to a team of homegrown, competitive talent.  

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If you are always disciplined and rational on a free agent, you'll never sign anyone. 

However, yeah, the Cubs are a cautionary tale for how a bad contract can fuck shit up PDQ

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5 minutes ago, mmmmmbeeer said:

I used Eloy as an example.  

Look up on the northside as an example of what one bad contract can do to a team of homegrown, competitive talent.  

Heyward's vet leadership is cited as a big reason they won Game 7.

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6 minutes ago, mmmmmbeeer said:

I used Eloy as an example.  

Look up on the northside as an example of what one bad contract can do to a team of homegrown, competitive talent.  

My point is if you’re afraid to sign a 26 year old free agent because the long-term consequences, the same should apply to the 29 year old free agent down the road.

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You want to save money by not signing a superstar positional player, but want to spend it on bullpen pieces? No thanks...

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2 minutes ago, mmmmmbeeer said:

I used Eloy as an example.  

Look up on the northside as an example of what one bad contract can do to a team of homegrown, competitive talent.  

To be fair I don't think Eloy was ever in the Cubs long term plans.  He was the guy that was going to get moved for a cost controlled SP especially after they traded Torres for Chapman.  He was a guy that I think they knew they knew they were going to have to trade eventually.  Heyward is their RF and he's not going anywhere because of his contract.  

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FWIW I prefer Machado over Harper and think the Sox have better odds to land Manny.  I think the Sox are doing the right thing by meeting with both but I just don't think Harper wants to come here and I think he prefers an NL team and most likely winds up with the Dodgers if they can move some payroll.  Manny on the other hand makes more sense and I just get a vibe that there's a realistic shot the Sox can sign him opposed to Harper.  Just a gut feeling.  

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4 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

If you are always disciplined and rational on a free agent, you'll never sign anyone. 

However, yeah, the Cubs are a cautionary tale for how a bad contract can fuck shit up PDQ

Yep fucked it up so much they won a World Series, and it is so bad now winning only 95 games is unacceptable everyone gets fired.

i would much prefer it the way the Sox do it. Win 78 games when you are “going for it” or “all in”. Then rebuild and lose 100, and rave about prospects acquired with 6.00 ERAs or 200 strikeouts. Then rave about the prospect developed who strikes out like Ron Kittle but hits homers like Julio Cruz, but he is nice and dumps water on his head in those rare instances the team wins. 

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You need stars to win the World Series. Gather a handful of stars (hopefully a few of them are homegrown like Eloy), and fill out the roster will good/solid players. Hope that wins a World Series or two.

The reality is, teams winning the World Series without big free agent spending (or trading for big contracts) are few and far between. Yes it's happened and will happen again. But it's not a path I would want to bet money on working.

So yes, if I'm Rick Hahn I absolutely try to sign Bryce Harper. Manny Machado I'm a little more afraid of of, but I'd probably bite there too if Harper falls through. Free agency is always going to be a big risk. And if you aren't willing to risk that backend of the contract blowing up in your face, then you simply won't get big free agents ever.

Edited by Sarava

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