Are White Sox fans being "silly" thinking we are going to get Harper?

[caulfield12]

37 minutes ago, KnightsOnMintSt said:

But lets say the White Sox and Phillies offer the same amount. People are acting like signing with the Sox would ruin his career while signing with Philly is a great move.

Pros

Same division, familiarity with pitchers, team owner obviously willing to spend with huge t.v. rights deal after the WS era a decade ago underpinning all that, not a small/er market mentality, other than the Braves and crazy Mets, other teams are taking a step back, presence of Hoskins and Nola as foundation, newer stadium but not particularly memorable, Huge fan/media pressure=win big and you’re a Big Hero, Eastern Time Zone=more ESPN attention, Philly cheesesteak sandwiches, Rocky Balboa, Liberty Bell (lol)

 

Cons

It’s Philly, the Braves have a much better young core at the MLB level as well as their farm system, the position players currently on the roster aren’t miles ahead of what the White Sox threw out there in 2018...not an impressive lineup like NYY, LAD or Cubs where he’d have a ton of lineup protection, market where there’s intense negative media and fan pressure if things don’t go well, Arrieta is still a solid pitcher but on the downside of his career, 2018 early competitiveness could have been a false positive (see White Sox in 2012 and 2016), Hoskins blocking him at 1B...no opportunities to rest as DH if slightly dinged up, brutal weather in April and most of May 

Edited December 14, 2018 by caulfield12

[Jose Abreu]

59 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Yes. /thread

No. /thread

[Dam8610]

1 hour ago, TaylorStSox said:

Am I the only one that's not that excited because Harper isn't that good? I mean, he's good, but he's not $40MM good. 

The above is why I want Machado.

[Jack Parkman]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Are you going to be mad when it happens?

No I won't, if it happens I'd be super surprised and stoked. I wouldn't be posting in this thread if I didn't want it to happen. I just think we're all high thinking it is realistic. The odds of the Sox signing either Machado or Harper is about the same as winning $25K or more on a $10 dollar scratch off. Not powerball low definitely much less than 1% . The best way I'd characterize it is "non-zero" which generally means significantly(in orders of magnitude) less than 1% but not zero. 

Edited December 14, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[SoxBlanco]

Just now, Jack Parkman said:

No I won't, if it happens I'd be super surprised and stoked. I wouldn't be posting in this thread if I didn't want it to happen. I just think we're all high thinking it is realistic. The odds of the Sox signing either Machado or Harper is about the same as winning $25K or more on a $10 dollar scratch off. Not powerball low but not high either. 

If you believe it is that unlikely, then which teams do you think have a better chance to sign him?

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, SoxBlanco said:

If you believe it is that unlikely, then which teams do you think have a better chance to sign him?

Realistically, only the Dodgers and Cubs for Harper. 

I think Machado to the Yankees is a near certainty. 

I think they'd be open to a 4-5 year contract  because of their youth. 

Edited December 14, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[SoxBlanco]

Just now, Jack Parkman said:

Realistically, only the Dodgers and Cubs for Harper. 

I think Machado to the Yankees is a near certainty. 

 

Can you give me your percentage breakdown on the chances Harper signs with the Cubs, Dodgers, and White Sox? 

[Jack Parkman]

Harper 

Dodgers 60% 

Cubs 39.99%

Sox/Phillies: 100K/1

Edited December 14, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[Chicago White Sox]

7 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

No I won't, if it happens I'd be super surprised and stoked. I wouldn't be posting in this thread if I didn't want it to happen. I just think we're all high thinking it is realistic. The odds of the Sox signing either Machado or Harper is about the same as winning $25K or more on a $10 dollar scratch off. Not powerball low definitely much less than 1% . The best way I'd characterize it is "non-zero" which generally means significantly(in orders of magnitude) less than 1% but not zero. 

You either have poor math skills if you think those probabilities are anywhere close to realistic or are simply the most pessimistic person on the face of the planet.

Edited December 14, 2018 by Chicago White Sox

[fathom]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

Harper 

Dodgers 60% 

Cubs 39.99$

Sox/Phillies: 100K/1

Wow even I’m more optimistic than that

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

Harper 

Dodgers 60% 

Cubs 39.99$

Sox/Phillies: 100K/1

Now you’re just being dumb.

[Chicago White Sox]

5 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Realistically, only the Dodgers and Cubs for Harper. 

I think Machado to the Yankees is a near certainty. 

I think they'd be open to a 4-5 year contract  because of their youth. 

For the love of god the Cubs have zero chance of signing Harper.  Like where do you come up with this shit.

[SoxBlanco]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

For the love of god the Cubs have zero chance of signing Harper.  Like where do you come up with this shit.

But according to him, they are 40,000 times more likely to sign Harper than the Sox.

[Jack Parkman]

4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

For the love of god the Cubs have zero chance of signing Harper.  Like where do you come up with this shit.

I think their crying poor is a smokescreen. I don't buy it for a second. They're in on him and they're keeping it on the Down Low. They only have to pay the tax for one year and they have $70M coming off the books next year. 

 

Edited December 14, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[SoxBlanco]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

I think their crying poor is a smokescreen. I don't buy it for a second. They're in on him and they're keeping it on the Down Low. They only have to pay the tax for one year and they have $70M coming off the books next year. 

 

I definitely think the Cubs have a chance to sign him, but to say that they are 40,000 times more likely to sign him than the Sox is a bit ridiculous. 

[ChiSox59]

14 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

The odds of the Sox signing either Machado or Harper is about the same as winning $25K or more on a $10 dollar scratch off. Not powerball low definitely much less than 1% . The best way I'd characterize it is "non-zero" which generally means significantly(in orders of magnitude) less than 1% but not zero. 

This is terrible analysis, and underscores that you really have no idea what you're talking about.  Everything around you suggests that the Sox have as good of a chance to sign one of these guys as every other team in baseball except for the Yankees, Dodgers and Phillies, yet you've compared it to winning $25k on a scratch off? 

[Jack Parkman]

5 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

I definitely think the Cubs have a chance to sign him, but to say that they are 40,000 times more likely to sign him than the Sox is a bit ridiculous. 

The issue With regard to Harper is that I think he wants to play for a National Brand. That means only the following: Cubs, Dodgers, Yankees Red Sox. With the latter two out, that leaves two left. 

I really don't think he's even considering the Sox and Phillies. Their names are out there only to get the Dodgers and Cubs to shit or get off the pot. The Sox and Phillies are being used for leverage and nothing more. 

If you're the Cubs or Dodgers and you have a chance to get Bryce Harper for only a late 1st round pick and money you make it happen. The guarantee of Harper is worth more than anyone they'd give up to clear salary. 

Edited December 14, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[Rowand44]

5 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

The issue With regard to Harper is that I think he wants to play for a National Brand. That means only the following: Cubs, Dodgers, Yankees Red Sox. With the latter two out, that leaves two left. 

I really don't think he's even considering the Sox and Phillies. Their names are out there only to get the Dodgers and Cubs to shit or get off the pot. The Sox and Phillies are being used for leverage and nothing more. 

You know what happens to any team Bryce Harper signs with?  They become a national brand.

[Chicago White Sox]

8 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I think their crying poor is a smokescreen. I don't buy it for a second. They're in on him and they're keeping it on the Down Low. They only have to pay the tax for one year and they have $70M coming off the books next year. 

 

Good god man, you don’t think about anything, you just assume the worst and pollute this website with your relentless pessimism.  And where is this $70M in payroll coming off the books.

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, Rowand44 said:

You know what happens to any team Bryce Harper signs with?  They become a national brand.

We'll agree to disagree on that one. 

[Chicago White Sox]

10 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

I definitely think the Cubs have a chance to sign him, but to say that they are 40,000 times more likely to sign him than the Sox is a bit ridiculous. 

The Cubs have to move significant salary in order to sign Harper.  Maybe I shouldn’t say they have no chance, but the odds are so low it’s practically zero.

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Good god man, you don’t think about anything, you just assume the worst and pollute this website with your relentless pessimism.  And where is this $70M in payroll coming off the books.

Lester/Zobrist is a big chunk of it. They could decline the option on Quintana as well. and clear $81M

[Chicago White Sox]

9 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

The issue With regard to Harper is that I think he wants to play for a National Brand. That means only the following: Cubs, Dodgers, Yankees Red Sox. With the latter two out, that leaves two left. 

I really don't think he's even considering the Sox and Phillies. Their names are out there only to get the Dodgers and Cubs to shit or get off the pot. The Sox and Phillies are being used for leverage and nothing more. 

Then Harper must not care about money, because those national brands are unlikely to offer nearly as much as the Sox or Phillies.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

Lester/Zobrist is a big chunk of it. They could decline the option on Quintana as well. and clear $81M

Lester isn’t a free agent after this year and declining Quintana’s cheap option is perhaps the single dumbest proposition I have ever seen on this site.

[Jack Parkman]

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

Then Harper must not care about money, because those national brands are unlikely to offer nearly as much as the Sox or Phillies.

Did you read about what I said? I think the 10 year deal isn't going to happen, they'll get a 5 year deal with an opt out after 3 to guarantee they hit FA one more time.