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Harper to Phillies 13yr/330 mil

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Just now, fathom said:

I will say if the Sox did sign Harper, there would never be a more fitting use of the Dumb and Dumber “completely redeem yourself” gif

Well, let's hope we can bust it out.

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25 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

The White Sox put together their budgets and put Machado at $175 and Harper at $225. They realize they can afford both of them at those values.

Over how many years? Presumably the eight that they guaranteed. That's less than $22MM per year for MM. Meanwhile, Jose Abreu, the 32 yo (officially), non-premium-position-playing, defensive butcher just got 16MM in arbitration. If what you suggest is accurate then we've skipped right past incompetent to delusional.

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Just now, skooch said:

Over how many years? Presumably the eight that they guaranteed. That's less than $22MM per year for MM. Meanwhile, Jose Abreu, the 32 yo (officially), non-premium-position-playing, defensive butcher just got 16MM in arbitration. If what you suggest is accurate then we've skipped right past incompetent to delusional.

The version from Bruce and Olney was 7/$175, with Bruce going on about extra ways to make it worth more on the radio that could be consistent with some version of the vesting options we heard about at the end. 

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2 minutes ago, skooch said:

Over how many years? Presumably the eight that they guaranteed. That's less than $22MM per year for MM. Meanwhile, Jose Abreu, the 32 yo (officially), non-premium-position-playing, defensive butcher just got 16MM in arbitration. If what you suggest is accurate then we've skipped right past incompetent to delusional.

Of course they’re delusional, they think players want to play for a manager that will bench you at the slightest hint of not running hard down the line.

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3 minutes ago, fathom said:

Of course they’re delusional, they think players want to play for a manager that will bench you at the slightest hint of not running hard down the line.

And that the organization is so prestigious, the same organization that national media doesn't give a single fuck about, that superstar players will buy into them and take less to play here. As much as they want to believe it, they are not the fucking Cubs. 

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5 minutes ago, Sockin said:

And that the organization is so prestigious, the same organization that national media doesn't give a single fuck about, that superstar players will buy into them and take less to play here. As much as they want to believe it, they are not the fucking Cubs. 

They’re basically the exact opposite in terms of prestige right now.

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9 minutes ago, fathom said:

Of course they’re delusional, they think players want to play for a manager that will bench you at the slightest hint of not running hard down the line.

Holmes interview with Hahn yesterday wasn't exactly hard hitting, but the one thing he did ask him was if they thought they would have to pay a We Suck tax. The answer was no, they really think they are a place players want to play. Forget winning, forget fans in the stands, forget maximizing dollars. It would be nice if they ever realized signing premium free agents requires you to pay more than the other teams. 

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Maybe, just maybe, the Sox are seeing all the negative reaction and get back in the Harper derby. If you give Harper $320 million over 10 years with an opt-out to satisfy him, maybe at the back end of the contract, you have bad money and maybe even during his prime years (due to defense and a bad hitting season), he isn't worth $32 million per year. But one bad contract won't kill a team from being competitive. And adding him to the Sox makes it more likely that the Sox are competitive, helps with marketing and attendance. The reward of Harper substantially outweighs the risk of him. He clearly is waiting for his number to be matched. The Sox simply have no reason not to do it (except probably a mandate from the owner).

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Just now, maggsmaggs said:

Maybe, just maybe, the Sox are seeing all the negative reaction and get back in the Harper derby. If you give Harper $320 million over 10 years with an opt-out to satisfy him, maybe at the back end of the contract, you have bad money and maybe even during his prime years (due to defense and a bad hitting season), he isn't worth $32 million per year. But one bad contract won't kill a team from being competitive. And adding him to the Sox makes it more likely that the Sox are competitive, helps with marketing and attendance. The reward of Harper substantially outweighs the risk of him. He clearly is waiting for his number to be matched. The Sox simply have no reason not to do it (except probably a mandate from the owner).

That isn't some remarkable deal, the Phillies would stand a good chance of beating that, and frankly they should beat that. 

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6 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Holmes interview with Hahn yesterday wasn't exactly hard hitting, but the one thing he did ask him was if they thought they would have to pay a We Suck tax. The answer was no, they really think they are a place players want to play. Forget winning, forget fans in the stands, forget maximizing dollars. It would be nice if they ever realized signing premium free agents requires you to pay more than the other teams. 

I honestly thing in their (JR's) heads they think they have as much brand value as the Cubs, Yankees and Red Sox. Its unfathomable to me that they look at the roster and team and the empty stands and think players would be chomping at the bit to play for them. They go into these meetings and players are courteous to them saying they understand what they want to do or are building here and their takeaway from that is "Oh they want to play here so we can give them less."

It's the nice guy equivalent of "Oh I'm being nice to them so I deserve sex."

Edited by Sockin

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I was all aboard the Machado train.  If I had the choice, I would have taken Machado over Harper 10 out of 10 times.  But that ship has sailed, and I am willing to admit that Machado continuing to be a force well into his mid 30s and paying him ~$30M per for a decade would be a significant risk.  A lot of his value is derived from his defense, it would be a surprising to see him remain an elite defender into his 30s. 

Harper, while unlikely to provide much defensive value on the backend of a long term contract (or frankly at all), doesn't strike me as the type of guy that would "take it easy" once he gets his big payday.  Machado, on the other hand, I could definitely see regressing.  He's already well known around the league for lack of hustle in his mid 20s, and now that he's a three-hundred million dollar man, who knows how much he'll care.

Machado was a way better fit organizationally, but Harper definitely has some positives as compared to Machado.  But I refuse to convince myself the Sox are actually in the running until it happens.  Tanking in 2019 and waiting until 2020 to add major reinforcements just seems like the better move at this juncture. 

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4 minutes ago, maggsmaggs said:

Maybe, just maybe, the Sox are seeing all the negative reaction and get back in the Harper derby. If you give Harper $320 million over 10 years with an opt-out to satisfy him, maybe at the back end of the contract, you have bad money and maybe even during his prime years (due to defense and a bad hitting season), he isn't worth $32 million per year. But one bad contract won't kill a team from being competitive. And adding him to the Sox makes it more likely that the Sox are competitive, helps with marketing and attendance. The reward of Harper substantially outweighs the risk of him. He clearly is waiting for his number to be matched. The Sox simply have no reason not to do it (except probably a mandate from the owner).

I would offer him the same type of contract Machado got except more money. Straight forward 10 years, $330 million, 5 year opt out. He wins the contract title, and his brand has to be worth at least $3 million more a year to the White Sox. 5 years from now, if he opts out, he opts out.

The White Sox were pioneers of the opt out, but it wasn't a straight one. Belle had to remain one of the 3 top paid players in the game, if he wasn't and the Sox not willing to increase his money so that he was, he had the option to opt out, which he chose. Maybe they could do something like that here.

Edited by Dick Allen

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1 minute ago, Dick Allen said:

I would offer him the same type of contract Machado got except more money. Straight forward 10 years, $330 million, 5 year opt out. He wins the contract title, and his brand has to be worth at least $3 million more a year to the White Sox. 5 years from now, if he opts out, he opts out.

The White Sox were pioneers of the opt out, but it wasn't a straight one. Belle had to remain one of the 3 top paid players in the game, if he wasn't and the Sox not willing to increase his money so that he was, he had the option to opt out, which he chose. Maybe they could do something like that here.

Have always thought your idea with this was the best.

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7 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Holmes interview with Hahn yesterday wasn't exactly hard hitting, but the one thing he did ask him was if they thought they would have to pay a We Suck tax. The answer was no, they really think they are a place players want to play. Forget winning, forget fans in the stands, forget maximizing dollars. It would be nice if they ever realized signing premium free agents requires you to pay more than the other teams. 

I mean...did you really expect him to come out and say they expect to have to pay a premium over every other team to land free agents?  Wouldn't exactly be the wisest thing for a GM to say.  Obviously to to win a FA bidding, 95% of the time you need to be the high bidder.  But Hahn coming out saying that the White Sox simply would need to "overpay" to convince a FA to play for them would be......a questionable thing to say publicly.  

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1 minute ago, Dick Allen said:

I would offer him the same type of contract Machado got except more money. Straight forward 10 years, $330 million, 5 year opt out. He wins the contract title, and his brand has to be worth at least $3 million more a year to the White Sox. 5 years from now, if he opts out, he opts out.

The White Sox were pioneers of the opt out, but it wasn't a straight one. Belle had to remain one of the 3 top paid players in the game, if he wasn't and the Sox not willing to increase his money so that he was, he had the option to opt out, which he chose. Maybe they could do something like that here.

I actually don't know that such a structure would be allowable under the current CBA because the contract needs to have a fixed amount in the option years for them to calculate a luxury tax number. 

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1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

I actually don't know that such a structure would be allowable under the current CBA because the contract needs to have a fixed amount in the option years for them to calculate a luxury tax number. 

I'm sure they have some formula for that. Maybe whatever the top 3 would be that year, that would be their hit luxury tax wise, but its not like its going to ever be a huge number. Trout, Betts, might out do it. But who else?

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I will say this: Shack is getting his information from multiple solid places. You guys can believe whatever you want though obviously. The constant craving and whining for information throughout this process and then immediate reaction to tell people who actually have intel that they are full of shit is quite ridiculous. Shack shared with the board to keep people informed. I told him: fuck that board. The majority of the people posting there now don't deserve the information anyway. 

This place is tiresome. There are some things in this thread that could be debunked but I don't really have the patience for it. Everybody could be united in being extremely pissed ta this organization right now. Instead, some of us like to criticize others who have legit info and call them "insiders". It's pretty lame. 

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1 minute ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

I will say this: Shack is getting his information from multiple solid places. You guys can believe whatever you want though obviously. The constant craving and whining for information throughout this process and then immediate reaction to tell people who actually have intel that they are full of shit is quite ridiculous. Shack shared with the board to keep people informed. I told him: fuck that board. The majority of the people posting there now don't deserve the information anyway. 

This place is tiresome. There are some things in this thread that could be debunked but I don't really have the patience for it. Everybody could be united in being extremely pissed ta this organization right now. Instead, some of us like to criticize others who have legit info and call them "insiders". It's pretty lame. 

Well said...the Sox clearly thought they were getting Manny, so why wouldn’t that be the information that insiders are being provided.  It’s not like anyone claimed to be getting info from Lozano or Manny, etc.

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2 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

I'm sure they have some formula for that. Maybe whatever the top 3 would be that year, that would be their hit luxury tax wise, but its not like its going to ever be a huge number. Trout, Betts, might out do it. But who else?

That's not how it works, if there's an option year, for the luxury tax purposes they assume the option will be picked up unless it isn't. There can't be more than 1 dollar amount for the option year, the text of the CBA doesn't allow that. If he has a 10/$300 deal, then the luxury tax amount must be $30 million. It can't suddenly balloon to $350 over the same time period because it would be a way around the luxury tax level in the first seasons, you could have the Dodgers last year sign someone, then have them bring in an option that brings up the total value, but it still kept the dodgers under the tax line last year.

You could have an opt-out that becomes available if a player isn't a top 3 salary player, because you can still calculate a total value by assuming the whole contract is played for. 

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1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

That's not how it works, if there's an option year, for the luxury tax purposes they assume the option will be picked up unless it isn't. There can't be more than 1 dollar amount for the option year, the text of the CBA doesn't allow that. If he has a 10/$300 deal, then the luxury tax amount must be $30 million. It can't suddenly balloon to $350 over the same time period because it would be a way around the luxury tax level in the first seasons, you could have the Dodgers last year sign someone, then have them bring in an option that brings up the total value, but it still kept the dodgers under the tax line last year.

You could have an opt-out that becomes available if a player isn't a top 3 salary player, because you can still calculate a total value by assuming the whole contract is played for. 

Ah, that's a good point.

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2 minutes ago, fathom said:

Well said...the Sox clearly thought they were getting Manny, so why wouldn’t that be the information that insiders are being provided.  It’s not like anyone claimed to be getting info from Lozano or Manny, etc.

100%. They thought they were getting him. I'm obviously not privy to negotiations but they were pretty surprised. What they were told and what ended up transpiring were not the same. They still deserve to be crucified (the White Sox) but none of the "insiders" were throwing out nonsense. 

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1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

So I've been churning all this over to try to make a story as I like telling stories and I think there is one to tell here.

Let's start with 1 given point; that the White Sox's player evaluations are totally, completely, broken. Let's go from there.

The White Sox put together their budgets and put Machado at $175 and Harper at $225. They realize they can afford both of them at those values. In December they meet with Boras and put an offer similar to that on the table, they meet with Machado in late December and put that offer on the table. Boras doesn't give much of a response but they hear out the White Sox's presentation. Machado's side starts negotiating. They bring in the "Much more experienced" negotiator at some point, and sometime in January they start adding vesting options.

By mid-January the White Sox have a 7/$175 offer on the table to Machado and they've added 3 vesting options that could bring the value to $250, but they don't understand how those vesting options are viewed or how low that dollar amount is. They think that is a huge dollar amount,  so they leak their offer to Bruce Levine thinking that it's so big it will scare away the competition, and Bruce doesn't get all the details but he also hears that the amount could go up to $250, so he's on the radio giving that classic interview about how the contract could be worth more.

The White Sox think the $175 million offer will scare teams away, instead suddenly teams realize that this isn't going to go well over $300 million and they start sniffing around. Other offers start appearing, so Lozano's side goes to the White Sox and says they're going to have to guarantee that money just to get into the conversation. The White Sox gradually increase their guarantee, including right before Soxfest where they think they've done what Lozano asked and they think they're going to get it wrapped up at $200 million or so. Lozano still understands that's no where close to the final total, but every time the White Sox up their offer they think they're doing Machado a favor and bidding against themselves.

Meanwhile, the White Sox keep leaking that they think they have a shot at both of them because they could do both for $225 million deals, but Scott Boras has stopped taking their calls because they're so far out of the race they're not worth hearing from, so they haven't talked in weeks.

Over the last few weeks the Padres get more serious, realize that this isn't going to break their bank, their GM works with ownership to get ownership on board, and they come in with a strong $280 million guarantee last week.

The White Sox up their bid to $250 million guaranteed. They think "They've done everything Lozano asked them to do" because that was something he asked them to do in January - Rick Hahn's words. When the $280 million offer comes through, the White Sox go ahead and add in 2 vesting options that they are convinced are valuable to the player, failing to understand how weak those are from the player's side. 

When Lozano comes around and says "I'll sign at $300", the White Sox don't even think it's worth talking about because they're convinced they've been bidding against themselves. That pushes the Phillies out, the Padres say yes, and he's a Padre.

Meanwhile, everything the insiders heard was true - that the White Sox had a budget for Harper and Machado,  that Machado's budget was less, and that they didn't want Machado's money to get into the Harper range, but they thought they were doing Machado a favor by going into that range. Meanwhile, they don't realize nearly how far away they are, and when other teams realize they're scooping up good deals,  the White Sox go into "We've got to pay for the rest of our roster" excuse mode. So, we still hear some of the "They have a budget for Harper that was higher than Machado" stuff, but that's because they never realized that the budgets they had for both of them were laughably low. They thought that a $175 million offer would scare teams away, but it did the exact opposite,  and they thought they were bidding against themselves as they went through their own ceiling to put that $250 million offer on the table for Machado.

I don't know if it's right, but that's basically every single leak this offseason fit into one tidy picture.

Common sense would tell me this is spot on. Helluva post

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1 minute ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

100%. They thought they were getting him. I'm obviously not privy to negotiations but they were pretty surprised. What they were told and what ended up transpiring were not the same. They still deserve to be crucified (the White Sox) but none of the "insiders" were throwing out nonsense. 

This statement is simply inconsistent with what we've heard over the past 2 days. We heard that the White Sox were plainly told the Padres were at $280 million and we heard the White Sox were given an offer on Monday of $300 million that they rejected. 

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2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

This statement is simply inconsistent with what we've heard over the past 2 days. We heard that the White Sox were plainly told the Padres were at $280 million and we heard the White Sox were given an offer on Monday of $300 million that they rejected. 

He was talking about the insiders, not the FO. The FO was confident so  so that leaked over through the insiders. What nobody counted on was that the Sox confidence was based on delusions of grandeur. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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