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Harper to Phillies 13yr/330 mil

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3 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Complementary pieces many of which have had a higher WAR than megastar Harper over the last 3 seasons. Perhaps Harper is the complementary piece (but paid like a megastar).

I like how you cherry pick the last 3 seasons to intentionally avoid Harper’s 2015 MVP season, lol.

Rookie of the Year, 6x All Star, 1x MVP, and .900 career OPS.  Yes, he is a megastar whether you want to admit it or not.

Edited by Harper2Sox

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1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

It seems pretty clear that Boston will keep at least one of Martinez and Bogaerts...can't remember if Jackie Bradley's due for FA, it's either after this year or next, we've been linked to him for probably about 3 years but they might as well let it all ride on the shoulders of Luis Robert.

JDM, Bogaerts, Sale, Betts, Porcello, Bradley all free agents the next two winters. I’m sure there’s others but those are the names that come to mind. They won’t be able to bring everyone back, that’s for sure.

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Just now, Harper2Sox said:

I like how you cherry pick the last 3 seasons to intentional avoid Harper’s 2015 MVP season, lol.

Which season is the outlier so far in his career? And 4 years ago is a long time. Jason Heyward was pretty awesome back in 2015 too.

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5 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

JDM, Bogaerts, Sale, Betts, Porcello, Bradley all free agents the next two winters. I’m sure there’s others but those are the names that come to mind. They won’t be able to bring everyone back, that’s for sure.

That's not even considering that they might still bring back Kimbrel...

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3 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Which season is the outlier so far in his career? And 4 years ago is a long time. Jason Heyward was pretty awesome back in 2015 too.

The majority of Heyward's fWAR came from defense after his first 2-3 years with the Braves...

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4 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

JDM, Bogaerts, Sale, Betts, Porcello, Bradley all free agents the next two winters. I’m sure there’s others but those are the names that come to mind. They won’t be able to bring everyone back, that’s for sure.

They will definitely let JDM, Porcello and Bradley walk. We'll see what happens with the other 3 but I think they'll get 2 of the 3 back (I actually wouldn't be surprised if they trade Sale and recoup some pieces for the farm in his coming FA year or let him walk). The draft coming up will be pretty telling for them IMO. 

Edited by SoxAce

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Just now, SoxAce said:

They will definitely let JDM, Porcello and Bradley walk. We'll see what happens with the other 3 but I think they'll get 2 of the 3 back (I actually wouldn't be surprised if they trade Sale and recoup some pieces for the farm or let him walk). The draft coming up will be pretty telling for them IMO. 

They will definitely bring Betts back. No way they let him go. I don’t know about any of the others. They have a lot of difficult decisions ahead.

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1 minute ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

They will definitely bring Betts back. No way they let him go. I don’t know about any of the others. They have a lot of difficult decisions ahead.

Yep. Right now I got them bringing him and Bogaerts back. Iffy on Chris.

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22 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Grandal next year becomes even more important if Collins/Zavala flop or we can't draft Rutschman.

Pretty sure Grandal has a pretty reasonable option that is very likely to be picked up. 

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During this upcoming decade, it would be very nice to hear Jason Benetti routinely announcing the White Sox’ outfield as “Jimenez in left, Robert in center, Harper in right”.  

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16 minutes ago, Fan O'Faust said:

During this upcoming decade, it would be very nice to hear Jason Benetti routinely announcing the White Sox’ outfield as “Jimenez in left, Robert in center, Harper in right”.  

Sure would... to bad it ain’t happenin. Sox fooled me one last time.

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40 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I believe it’s a mutual option.

2020 Mutual Option includes a $2.25M buyout  (Grandal's deal)

Base Salary=$16 million

 

At the rate things are going, we'll inevitably get broken down Josh Donaldson about 3 years too late.

Edited by caulfield12

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https://www.ibtimes.com/mlb-rumors-bryce-harper-phillies-330m-deal-held-contract-clause-2768913

Phillies and most assuredly Sox balking at 3 year opt out for Harper, standoff ensues.

See last four paragraphs.

We're officially toast, folks.  Probably wants a two year opt out from us.

Edited by caulfield12

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Phillies have a tough choice, but, in the end...I think they almost have to accept the three year opt, as opposed to losing him altogether.

They're likely the only team willing to guarantee $320-340 million as well.

The White Sox might as well guarantee $350-400 million and try to spin that to their disillusioned fanbase, but they're still dead in the water without the opt out...even three years is going to be unacceptable to JR.

Game, set, match to Boras and Lozano.

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Pack it up folks, it's over.

Thanks to Pradhan Muthanna's article in the International Business Times citing a local sports radio guy.

Add caulfield's fantasy numbers and it's a wrap.

 

 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, GermanSoxFan said:

Pack it up folks, it's over.

Thanks to Pradhan Muthanna's article in the International Business Times citing a local sports radio guy.

Add caulfield's fantasy numbers and it's a wrap.

 

 

 

 

It's the most plausible reason I have heard so far for why he hasn't signed with the Phils (yet), it just makes way too much sense if you think about everything previously known about Harper and Boras. Philly likely has to cave on three years (when they want the assurance of 4-5 for thrir fans), but Boras/Harper are taking a risk they lose the Phillies altogether and thst he eventually has to sign a shorter term deal with LA, SF or even SD.

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What is the greatest disparity, allowed by the CBA, in years 3 and 4, over the rest of the contract,? That might be the best way to help ensure that he doesn't opt out, after the 2ND, or 3RD year. Pay a little less in the first two years, so that the annual salary could balloon up to $40 million in years 3 and 4. Under those conditions, the opt out, being demanded by Harper, would not be a problematical. 

Edited by Lillian

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12 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

One small problem, we supposedly aren't willing to give ANY opt out...

My question was directed at that very obstacle. If the increased amount, for the critical 3RD and 4TH years, were sufficient, that would mitigate the inherent risk of Harper opting out. It is the risk that he leave, just when the contention window is wide open, that makes the opt out so objectionable. If you can greatly reduce that risk, then the Sox may be willing to grant one.

This probably wouldn't be allowed, but just to illustrate, what if the first 5 years of the deal looked something like this?:

Years 1 & 2 @ $35 Million per

Years 3 & 4 @ $45 Million per

Year 5 @ $35 Million

It wouldn't be very likely that he would walk in year 3, or 4. And if he left in year 5, that would be fine, as that is when the young core would be reaching that stage, where they would have to start being paid.

Edited by Lillian

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1 hour ago, Lillian said:

My question was directed at that very obstacle. If the increased amount, for the critical 3RD and 4TH years, were sufficient, that would mitigate the inherent risk of Harper opting out. It is the risk that he leave, just when the contention window is wide open, that makes the opt out so objectionable. If you can greatly reduce that risk, then the Sox may be willing to grant one.

This probably wouldn't be allowed, but just to illustrate, what if the first 5 years of the deal looked something like this?:

Years 1 & 2 @ $35 Million per

Years 3 & 4 @ $45 Million per

Year 5 @ $35 Million

It wouldn't be very likely that he would walk in year 3, or 4. And if he left in year 5, that would be fine, as that is when the young core would be reaching that stage, where they would have to start being paid.

JR is also not going to create the first $40 million per year baseball player...not on his watch.

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$330 is not crazy.  And I still don’t understand what the big deal is with giving an opt-out.  Having the guy for 3 years and then possibly leaving is still better than never having the player at all.  Sure, Machado’s 5 year opt-out is team friendlier but whatever, 3 years of Harper is better than none and a bunch of mediocre free agents in his place for those 3 years — which is what will happen.

Edited by Harper2Sox

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