Harper to Phillies 13yr/330 mil

[caulfield12]

This is the best argument that supports Jack Parkman and should give the White Sox pause...but they’re probably in too deep with all the moves they made.  It really seems like Harper would be the best leader/role model for the group of talented incoming position players.  It also allows you to keep Madrigal, Anderson and Moncada together in the same infield, although that might not be as ideal defensively as Madrigal/Anderson/Machado.  Harper means you would have to get a near Gold Glove level defender in CF between Jimenez and him (potentially leading to more injuries to LUIS Robert).

 

“I talked to one guy who is into baseball. He’s a scout - I’m not going to name names, but he’s a scout. And I asked him the Machado-Harper question. And this was a month ago, so it was before this [Machado’s quotes about not being ‘Johnny Hustle’]. And I said ‘Who would you take?’ I said ‘I would take Machado.’ He said ‘I would take Harper.’ He said - it was exactly what you said Joe - he said ‘I think Machado, the way he is wired, that if he gets the big money, you’re gonna lose him. If he gets the big money, he’s just going to set back.’ And look, his talent, he’s still going to produce, but he’s a guy that’s just going to take the money and check out on you. He said Harper, he has his own warts, but he said ‘Harper’s a guy that is so ultra competitive, inherently competitive, that he’s still going to go out and play hard all the time.’ He said ‘I can’t guarantee that Machado would. In fact, I would almost guarantee you he would not.’ “

https://94wip.radio.com/manny-machado-bryce-harper-wip

Edited February 1, 2019 by caulfield12

[Jack Parkman]

21 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

Harper has two seasons right at .800(.814 and .817) so let's not act like his numbers are head and shoulders better than Manny.   

I disagree. I think Harper's numbers ARE head and shoulders better. 

Are we going to talk about  13 and 14? 

Machado had a .745 and .755 OPS respectively. 

For comparison's sake, Moncada had a .714 last year in what everyone that was a miserable season. 

Edited February 1, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Chicago White Sox]

I think from a purely on-field production standpoint, Machado has the safer floor while Harper has the higher ceiling.  Manny has been more consistent at the plate, plays plus defense at 3B, and is far  more durable since his knee surgeries.  He seems like a guy you can reasonably project 6 to 6.5 win seasons from for the next five or so years.  

Bryce definitely has the better bat when it’s going right and in those moments it can be MVP caliber.  As for his defense, while I do think many around here are overreacting to a rough 2018, I do think it leaves a lot to be desired.  I don’t buy this “he’ll need to move to 1B”, but he’s never going to be a good defensive OF IMO.  The durability is one of the biggest issues I have with Bryce.  He’s played less than 120 games in three of his last six seasons.  Certain guys always seemed to be banged up and Bryce just may be one of them.

I don’t think you can wrong with either, but I do think Machado is the better bet to provide consistent star production over the next half decade and will likely come quite a bit cheaper.  I currently lean Manny, but would still be ecstatic if we ended up with Harper.

[Orlando]

Does anyone think that the Sox prefer Harper? I remember a couple of months ago, I thought it was obvious that Harper was their main target. A bunch of Manny smoke has distracted us but what if it’s been Harper all along?

[Jack Parkman]

4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I think from a purely on-field production standpoint, Machado has the safer floor while Harper has the higher ceiling.  Manny has been more consistent at the plate, plays plus defense at 3B, and is far  more durable since his knee surgeries.  He seems like a guy you can reasonably project 6 to 6.5 win seasons from for the next five or so years.  

Bryce definitely has the better bat when it’s going right and in those moments it can be MVP caliber.  As for his defense, while I do think many around here are overreacting to a rough 2018, I do think it leaves a lot to be desired.  I don’t buy this “he’ll need to move to 1B”, but he’s never going to be a good defensive OF IMO.  The durability is one of the biggest issues I have with Bryce.  He’s played less than 120 games in three of his last six seasons.  Certain guys always seemed to be banged up and Bryce just may be one of them.

I don’t think you can wrong with either, but I do think Machado is the better bet to provide consistent star production over the next half decade and will likely come quite a bit cheaper.  I currently lean Manny, but would still be ecstatic if we ended up with Harper.

Disagree. I think Harper has the safer floor and the higher ceiling. I really don't think that it is close. If you're spending the money, you spend it on Bryce, unless he's not interested in playing here. 

[Jack Parkman]

4 minutes ago, Orlando said:

Does anyone think that the Sox prefer Harper? I remember a couple of months ago, I thought it was obvious that Harper was their main target. A bunch of Manny smoke has distracted us but what if it’s been Harper all along?

No. The Jay and Alonso acquisitions kind of telegraphed who their main target is. 

[shipps]

9 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Disagree. I think Harper has the safer floor and the higher ceiling. I really don't think that it is close. If you're spending the money, you spend it on Bryce, unless he's not interested in playing here. 

That's if you ignore every other factor except for offense. So we would obviously ignore what the two bring to our defense and the positional needs within our organization. Plus any other intangibles that we think one might bring over the other as being more of a clubhouse fit.  

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

8 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Disagree. I think Harper has the safer floor and the higher ceiling. I really don't think that it is close. If you're spending the money, you spend it on Bryce, unless he's not interested in playing here. 

Nope.Machado hopefully costs less and has been on the field way more. You have no value when you don't play.Costing less also allows more financial freedom to upgrade where necessary.Top flight 3rd baseman way higher on Sox needs than an outfielder. I cannot actually see how anyone can think Harper is a better choice.

[caulfield12]

So let's begin with that: If I'm running a team, I'd love to have either player as a foundation piece. There are 45 players in big league history to have generated at least 580 runs created through their age-25 season. That's Machado's career total, which happens to be seven more than Stan Musial at the same age. Harper has created 682 runs, which ranks 22nd on the 25-and-under leaderboard. He's ahead of players like Shoeless Joe Jackson, Rogers Hornsby, Tris Speaker and Lou Gehrig.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/25216980/mlb-choosing-bryce-harper-manny-machado

[caulfield12]

9 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Nope.Machado hopefully costs less and has been on the field way more. You have no value when you don't play.Costing less also allows more financial freedom to upgrade where necessary.Top flight 3rd baseman way higher on Sox needs than an outfielder. I cannot actually see how anyone can think Harper is a better choice.

But nobody in baseball is concerned that Harper would just “phone it in” with a huge guaranteed deal.

The best thing for the White Sox might be that Machado plays so well he opts out after four years when we need to reallocate that money for the young core players to sign extensions (this is where the Cubs are, essentially, choosing between Baez/Bryant.)

Edited February 1, 2019 by caulfield12

[Jack Parkman]

10 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Nope.Machado hopefully costs less and has been on the field way more. You have no value when you don't play.Costing less also allows more financial freedom to upgrade where necessary.Top flight 3rd baseman way higher on Sox needs than an outfielder. I cannot actually see how anyone can think Harper is a better choice.

I don't disagree that Machado fits team needs better, but the more I dig into the numbers, the more I'm convinced Harper is a far superior player. I don't trust defensive metrics all that much as they swing wildly from season to season. If Machado has a negative year or two on the defensive side, he goes from a 5 win plyer to a 3, and is that worth 30M per season? Harper just put up a 5 win season while being negative defensively. I really don't think that it is close at all. 

 

Edited February 1, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[JuliusO1274]

4 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I don't disagree that Machado fits team needs better, but the more I dig into the numbers, the more I'm convinced Harper is a far superior player. I don't trust defensive metrics all that much as they swing wildly from season to season. If Machado has a negative year or two on the defensive side, he goes from a 5 win plyer to a 3, and is that worth 30M per season? Harper just put up a 5 win season while being negative defensively. I really don't think that it is close at all. 

Harper has put up a WAR less than 2 every other season, is that worth 30M+ a season?

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

I don't disagree that Machado fits team needs better, but the more I dig into the numbers, the more I'm convinced Harper is a far superior player. I don't trust defensive metrics all that much as they swing wildly from season to season. If Machado has a negative year or two on the defensive side, he goes from a 5 win plyer to a 3, and is that worth 30M per season? Harper just put up a 5 win season while being negative defensively. I really don't think that it is close at all. 

Except for the fact that Jimenez, Robert and Adolfo/Basabe (If you really squint) could potentially be 4 fWAR corner outfielders and the best we could project at 3B are currently Yolmer, Moncada or the ghost of Jake Burger.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

But nobody in baseball is concerned that Harper would just “phone it in” with a huge guaranteed deal.

The best thing for the White Sox might be that Machado plays so well he opts out after four years when we need to reallocate that money for the young core players to sign extensions (this is where the Cubs are, essentially, choosing between Baez/Bryant.)

What does phoning it in have to do with playing 162 games a year which is what Machado usually does and position of need? I will concede Harper has the higher upside offensively but that hardly makes up for the other factors.

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

Except for the fact that Jimenez, Robert and Adolfo/Basabe (If you really squint) could potentially be 4 fWAR corner outfielders and the best we could project at 3B are currently Yolmer, Moncada or the ghost of Jake Burger.

You could use the prospects to acquire a decent 3B. 

If you can, you acquire Harper this year, Gerrit Cole or Chris Sale next year, and use some of the other prospects besides the core players to fill any remaining holes. 

Edited February 1, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

9 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I don't disagree that Machado fits team needs better, but the more I dig into the numbers, the more I'm convinced Harper is a far superior player. I don't trust defensive metrics all that much as they swing wildly from season to season. If Machado has a negative year or two on the defensive side, he goes from a 5 win plyer to a 3, and is that worth 30M per season? Harper just put up a 5 win season while being negative defensively. I really don't think that it is close at all. 

If you want to deal with "ifs" the chances of Harper being injured vs the chance of Machado's defense downgrading significantly at 3rd base is way in Machado's favor given past indicators. Same goes for Machado's vs Harper defensively.

[Jack Parkman]

3 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

If you want to deal with "ifs" the chances of Harper being injured vs the chance of Machado's defense downgrading significantly at 3rd base is way in Machado's favor given past indicators. Same goes for Machado's vs Harper defensively.

Teams are probably willing to pay Harper $50M more than Machado over the course of his contract. Think about that. 

Edited February 1, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

6 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

You could use the prospects to acquire a decent 3B. 

If you can, you acquire Harper this year, Gerrit Cole or Chris Sale next year, and use some of the other prospects besides the core players to fill any remaining holes. 

Why deal OF prospects when you can just use them to fill the holes in the OF and have Machado and still have more prospect depth afterwards for trades or injuries?

[Kyyle23]

45 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I disagree. I think Harper's numbers ARE head and shoulders better. 

Are we going to talk about  13 and 14? 

Machado had a .745 and .755 OPS respectively. 

For comparison's sake, Moncada had a .714 last year in what everyone that was a miserable season. 

I'm not the one leaving out the numbers here.   All I did was add Machados OPS in the same season that you added to your declaration that Harper is the one 

 

as I said earlier, I wouldn't kick either out of bed.   But Machados glove and similar offensive production put both on equal ground as far as I'm concerned 

[Kiebs13]

10 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Except for the fact that Jimenez, Robert and Adolfo/Basabe (If you really squint) could potentially be 4 fWAR corner outfielders and the best we could project at 3B are currently Yolmer, Moncada or the ghost of Jake Burger.

but harper is a guarantee. none of those OF prospects are. with harper, you can trade from a position of strength for a 3b

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Just now, Jack Parkman said:

Teams are probably willing to pay Harper $50M more than Machado. Think about that. 

Perhaps . We will see. That just means the Sox will be getting a better deal than those teams. I will happily take a guy playing 162 games over the guy who plays 120. So not only do the Sox get the better deal they are getting more value per games played.

[Jack Parkman]

Just now, Kyyle23 said:

I'm not the one leaving out the numbers here.   All I did was add Machados OPS in the same season that you added to your declaration that Harper is the one 

I don't think it is close tbh. I clarified. Harper's 3 worst seasons are 

.768, .814, .817

Machado's are

.745, .755, .782

Harper's 3 best seasons:

1.109

1.008

.889

Machado's 3 best

.905

.876

.867

Not even close in terms of ceiling and floor. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

5 minutes ago, Kiebs13 said:

but harper is a guarantee. none of those OF prospects are. with harper, you can trade from a position of strength for a 3b

Machado isn't a guarantee? He's more of a guarantee to produce consistent high level of play than Harper just by being on the field more often. If we can't trust that our overflow of OF prospects are going to produce at least 2 quality bats and above average OF defense then rebuilding is ridiculous . The Sox are in a position where they have to believe high quality prospects will produce high quality results.

[shipps]

5 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I don't think it is close tbh. I clarified. Harper's 3 worst seasons are 

.768, .814, .817

Machado's are

.745, .755, .782

Harper's 3 best seasons:

1.109

1.008

.889

Machado's 3 best

.905

.876

.867

Not even close in terms of ceiling and floor. 

I know you aren't a fan of defensive metrics but have you at least watched the two players play defense? Highlights of them playing defense? 

In think we can certainly find Machados really valuable on this team.  

[caulfield12]

It’s pretty obvious that marketing/ticket/souvenir sales and national name recognition comes as part of the value-added Harper proposition.

Whether it’s actually worth $50-75 million more (especially with the tv deal already locked in for 2020-24) is the question, because Sox fans are even more desperate for a legit winning team than one individual superstar, even if it is a position player (as opposed to Sale).