Let's buy a contract (Ideas)

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

This thread isn't meant to be a concession to Harper and Manny, I still think we have a pretty good shot at locking down Manny, but in the event that the Sox miss out on both of them, and maybe even Grandal and Keuchel, the Sox may start the 2019 season with still a TON of money left unused.

So, hopefully that leads Hahn down some creative paths to adding players, via a SECONDARY free agent market. Buying big contracts off of other teams. The idea being that the team looking to offload their contracts on to us would have to also throw in some prospects to help facilitate the move (unless you're the Reds, then you GIVE AWAY those prospects for the right absorb other team's salary dumps).

Here is a list of players on non-contending teams, that might be available for the Sox to grab, in order of AAV. Consider this list how much you would be "signing" these players for right now. I excluded complete albatross contracts or guys at a position that wouldn't make sense for the Sox.

SP Zack Grienke (35) - 3 yrs/$104.5M

SP Felix Hernandez (33) - 1 yr/$27.8M

RF Jason Heyward (29) - 5 yrs/$118.5M

SP Jordan Zimmermann (33) - 2 yrs/$50M

OF Jacoby Ellsbury (35) - 2 yrs/$47.3M

SP Johnny Cueto (33) - 3 yrs/$68M

OF Alex Gordon (35) 1 yr/$24M

SP Jeff Samardzija (34) 2 yrs/$39.6M

3B Evan Longoria (33) 4 yrs/$72.5M

SP Mike Leake (31) 2 yrs/$36M

SP Wei-Yin Chen (34) 2 yrs/$42M

3B Kyle Seager (31) 3 yrs/$60.5M

 

The rest of the list I used is here..... https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/rankings/average/

Ok, now FanGraphs has put together an awesome system of determining the dollar amount to attach to each prospect, based on their FV. And they've translated that calculation to their top 131 list. Now this list is as of sometime during the 2018 season, so these values will change since they are making their way through the 2019 updated lists, but this will at least provide some sort of idea.

So I am going to work under the idea that $8M equals 1 WAR, so use STEAMER to figure their value. The difference between their contract and their STEAMER projected value will be what the team will have to pay the Sox to cover the gap. Feel free to make your own calculations using this Fangraphs resource..... https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/

 

Just using the list above, I'm going to copy and paste that list below, but add in the potential prospects + cash it may cost the team for the Sox to take on that salary dump. So I'm subtracting the $8M/WAR for what STEAMER says they will produce in 2019, and then cutting that number in half for each year thereafter for regression, with 1 WAR or $8M being the lowest any player will go. Heyward, due to his age, will maintain his STEAMER projections until age 31 season, then he will lose half each year. Grienke, for example, is projected for 3.3 fWAR in 2019. So his 2019 value will be about $27M. Then that will cut to about $13M in 2020, and $8M in 2021. So his projected value for 3 years will be $48M. That means he is a net-negative of about $56M. The Dbacks trade will reflect the $56M difference.

 

SP Zack Grienke (35) - 3 yrs/$104.5M - For SP Jon Duplantier + $30M

SP Felix Hernandez (33) - 1 yr/$27.8M - For OF Kyle Lewis + $15M

RF Jason Heyward (29) - 5 yrs/$118.5M For C Miguel Amaya, 2B Nico Hoerner + $20M

SP Jordan Zimmermann (33) - 2 yrs/$50M For SP Matt Manning + $15M

OF Jacoby Ellsbury (35) - 2 yrs/$47.3M For SP Albert Abreu + $15M

SP Johnny Cueto (33) - 3 yrs/$68M For CF Heliot Ramos + $25M

OF Alex Gordon (35) 1 yr/$24M For RF Kyle Isbel + $10M

SP Jeff Samardzija (34) 2 yrs/$39.6M For CF Heliot Ramos + $5M

3B Evan Longoria (33) 4 yrs/$72.5M For CF Heliot Ramos, SS Marco Luciano + $10M

SP Mike Leake (31) 2 yrs/$36M For OF Kyle Lewis + $10M

SP Wei-Yin Chen (34) 2 yrs/$42M For SP Braxton Garrett + $10M

3B Kyle Seager (31) 3 yrs/$60.5M For OF Kyle Lewis, P Logan Gilbert + $10M

 

With the Mariners it was hard, since they have 0 guys on FG top 131, so I just took Kyle Lewis, their #1 prospect, and assumed his value would be around $5M, instead of $9M for least valuable guy on FG list. And then I also chose not to assume any teams would give up their elite prospects in a salary dump. For the Giants, even though Joey Bart's $30M evaluation would have fit this scenario, I can't imagine the Giants would give him up just to free up a contract. So I went for Heliot Ramos who was valued at $16M instead, and then threw in money.

 

Are any of those deals ones you guys would want the Sox to take? Got any ideas of your own using the links? If Hahn can't spend Jerry's money on FA this winter, I hope he is able to find creative ways like this to buy some prospects with that money.

[whitesoxbrad]

1 hour ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

This thread isn't meant to be a concession to Harper and Manny, I still think we have a pretty good shot at locking down Manny, but in the event that the Sox miss out on both of them, and maybe even Grandal and Keuchel, the Sox may start the 2019 season with still a TON of money left unused.

So, hopefully that leads Hahn down some creative paths to adding players, via a SECONDARY free agent market. Buying big contracts off of other teams. The idea being that the team looking to offload their contracts on to us would have to also throw in some prospects to help facilitate the move (unless you're the Reds, then you GIVE AWAY those prospects for the right absorb other team's salary dumps).

Here is a list of players on non-contending teams, that might be available for the Sox to grab, in order of AAV. Consider this list how much you would be "signing" these players for right now. I excluded complete albatross contracts or guys at a position that wouldn't make sense for the Sox.

SP Zack Grienke (35) - 3 yrs/$104.5M

SP Felix Hernandez (33) - 1 yr/$27.8M

RF Jason Heyward (29) - 5 yrs/$118.5M

SP Jordan Zimmermann (33) - 2 yrs/$50M

OF Jacoby Ellsbury (35) - 2 yrs/$47.3M

SP Johnny Cueto (33) - 3 yrs/$68M

OF Alex Gordon (35) 1 yr/$24M

SP Jeff Samardzija (34) 2 yrs/$39.6M

3B Evan Longoria (33) 4 yrs/$72.5M

SP Mike Leake (31) 2 yrs/$36M

SP Wei-Yin Chen (34) 2 yrs/$42M

3B Kyle Seager (31) 3 yrs/$60.5M

 

The rest of the list I used is here..... https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/rankings/average/

Ok, now FanGraphs has put together an awesome system of determining the dollar amount to attach to each prospect, based on their FV. And they've translated that calculation to their top 131 list. Now this list is as of sometime during the 2018 season, so these values will change since they are making their way through the 2019 updated lists, but this will at least provide some sort of idea.

So I am going to work under the idea that $8M equals 1 WAR, so use STEAMER to figure their value. The difference between their contract and their STEAMER projected value will be what the team will have to pay the Sox to cover the gap. Feel free to make your own calculations using this Fangraphs resource..... https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/

 

Just using the list above, I'm going to copy and paste that list below, but add in the potential prospects + cash it may cost the team for the Sox to take on that salary dump. So I'm subtracting the $8M/WAR for what STEAMER says they will produce in 2019, and then cutting that number in half for each year thereafter for regression, with 1 WAR or $8M being the lowest any player will go. Heyward, due to his age, will maintain his STEAMER projections until age 31 season, then he will lose half each year. Grienke, for example, is projected for 3.3 fWAR in 2019. So his 2019 value will be about $27M. Then that will cut to about $13M in 2020, and $8M in 2021. So his projected value for 3 years will be $48M. That means he is a net-negative of about $56M. The Dbacks trade will reflect the $56M difference.

 

SP Zack Grienke (35) - 3 yrs/$104.5M - For SP Jon Duplantier + $30M

SP Felix Hernandez (33) - 1 yr/$27.8M - For OF Kyle Lewis + $15M

RF Jason Heyward (29) - 5 yrs/$118.5M For C Miguel Amaya, 2B Nico Hoerner + $20M

SP Jordan Zimmermann (33) - 2 yrs/$50M For SP Matt Manning + $15M

OF Jacoby Ellsbury (35) - 2 yrs/$47.3M For SP Albert Abreu + $15M

SP Johnny Cueto (33) - 3 yrs/$68M For CF Heliot Ramos + $25M

OF Alex Gordon (35) 1 yr/$24M For RF Kyle Isbel + $10M

SP Jeff Samardzija (34) 2 yrs/$39.6M For CF Heliot Ramos + $5M

3B Evan Longoria (33) 4 yrs/$72.5M For CF Heliot Ramos, SS Marco Luciano + $10M

SP Mike Leake (31) 2 yrs/$36M For OF Kyle Lewis + $10M

SP Wei-Yin Chen (34) 2 yrs/$42M For SP Braxton Garrett + $10M

3B Kyle Seager (31) 3 yrs/$60.5M For OF Kyle Lewis, P Logan Gilbert + $10M

 

With the Mariners it was hard, since they have 0 guys on FG top 131, so I just took Kyle Lewis, their #1 prospect, and assumed his value would be around $5M, instead of $9M for least valuable guy on FG list. And then I also chose not to assume any teams would give up their elite prospects in a salary dump. For the Giants, even though Joey Bart's $30M evaluation would have fit this scenario, I can't imagine the Giants would give him up just to free up a contract. So I went for Heliot Ramos who was valued at $16M instead, and then threw in money.

 

Are any of those deals ones you guys would want the Sox to take? Got any ideas of your own using the links? If Hahn can't spend Jerry's money on FA this winter, I hope he is able to find creative ways like this to buy some prospects with that money.

Great job, Thank you for all of your hard work in putting this together, this GARBAGE organization does not deserve fans look all of us. 

[whitesoxbrad]

Sorry, I meant to say, this GARBAGE organization does not deserve fans like us.

[beautox]

If the yankees do land Manny and we can't land Harper either; I wouldn't be against targeting Ellsbury.

Sox trade Abreu to the yankees for Ellsbury, Florial & Frazier. Now Frazier has obviously lost some shine(former 55FV) and has had a concussion so lets just spitball and say his value is 30M, Florial is worth 26M. Abreu is projected to make 16M in ARB and produce 2.4 fWAR i think there is enough health risk with Frazier to make the deal work for the Yankees and nearly be there in terms of value if the sox take on all of Ellsbury's contract. Stanton, Judge, Gardner & Hicks aren't going anywhere. If they sign Manny and play him at SS till Didi gets back they can live with Andujar at 3B, eventually moving him across the diamond to 1B after Abreu leaves. Lastly Abreu will likely get a comp pick attached to him so it should further balance out the value.

[Ross Gload Fan]

The only one I would even remotely consider on that list is Kyle Seager.

[EvilJester99]

Grienke and Seager would be it for me

[Flash]

Not sure how the math would work but would consider Heyward, Montgomery and Bote + $$$.

[reiks12]

If we fail on Machado I would be happy if we went after Seager. I think last year was a fluke for him

edit: didnt think his 2017 was bad but thats when he started to decline.. still would like him if the trade is right

Edited December 22, 2018 by reiks12

[Capital G]

If we swing and miss on MM/Harper I only want the Sox to go after players they think they can trade at the dead line and continue on the path of the rebuild.

But if I had to choose between those guys I would not mind:

Grienke

Also would not shed tears over Longo/Seager only bc we dont have any 3rd basemen on the horizon.

[KnightsOnMintSt]

If the Sox do not get Harper or Machado, I would like to rest of the off-season to look something like this:

TRADE:

White Sox get: Jason Heyward, David Bote, and Ian Happ.

Cubs get: Lincoln Henzman ++

FA Signings:

A.J. Pollock and Dallas Keuchel 

 

2019 White Sox:

LF- Eloy Jimenez CF- Jason Heyward RF- A.J. Pollock

3B- David Bote SS- Tim Anderson 2B- Yoan Moncada 1B- Jose Abreu

C- Wellington Castillo DH- Yonder Alonso

1. Dallas Keuchel 2. Carlos Rodon 3. Reynaldo Lopez 4. Lucas Giolito 5. Ivan Nova

[JoshPR]

Most of that list is trash. Cueto ain't gonna pitch this season... Ellsbury? Pfft. Stay the course. If they don't hit big time then spend wisely. 

[caulfield12]

11 minutes ago, KnightsOnMintSt said:

If the Sox do not get Harper or Machado, I would like to rest of the off-season to look something like this:

TRADE:

White Sox get: Jason Heyward, David Bote, and Ian Happ.

Cubs get: Lincoln Henzman ++

FA Signings:

A.J. Pollock and Dallas Keuchel 

 

2019 White Sox:

LF- Eloy Jimenez CF- Jason Heyward RF- A.J. Pollock

3B- David Bote SS- Tim Anderson 2B- Yoan Moncada 1B- Jose Abreu

C- Wellington Castillo DH- Yonder Alonso

1. Dallas Keuchel 2. Carlos Rodon 3. Reynaldo Lopez 4. Lucas Giolito 5. Ivan Nova

Bote is no better than Yolmer.

Besides the fact we’re just begging the Cubs to sign Harper.  

In that lineup, Moncada would be at 3b with Happ at 2b with Bote on the bench.   Happ’s offensive upside compared to Bote dictates that.

Edited December 22, 2018 by caulfield12

[Chicago White Sox]

The plan shouldn’t change if we miss out on Machado & Harper.  Next year we simply go after Arenado, Rendon, & Bogaerts.  Definitely puts a ton of pressure on us to land one of those guys, but that’s still better than taking on a bad long-term contract IMO.

[Bob Sacamano]

Some of those seem like overpays for some teams, especially for the teams likely to be rebuilding next year l with one more year left on a bad deal (Ex: Felix, Gordon).

Edited December 22, 2018 by soxfan2014

[caulfield12]

7 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

The plan shouldn’t change if we miss out on Machado & Harper.  Next year we simply go after Arenado, Rendon, & Bogaerts.  Definitely puts a ton of pressure on us to land one of those guys, but that’s still better than taking on a bad long-term contract IMO.

Replacing the 26-year-old Bogaerts, who’s posted an exceptional 17.4 fWAR over the last four seasons, would be nearly impossible, and the rental market, at least in recent times, leaves little to be desired.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/12/red-sox-notes-bogaerts-payroll-sale-catchers.html

 

So we’re back to changing positions for Anderson, Moncada, or both?

He’s played only 50 career games for the Red Sox at 3B.

[Chicago White Sox]

15 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Replacing the 26-year-old Bogaerts, who’s posted an exceptional 17.4 fWAR over the last four seasons, would be nearly impossible, and the rental market, at least in recent times, leaves little to be desired.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/12/red-sox-notes-bogaerts-payroll-sale-catchers.html

 

So we’re back to changing positions for Anderson, Moncada, or both?

He’s played only 50 career games for the Red Sox at 3B.

This is all about leveraging our financial resources to add impact talent.  Tim Anderson (at least right now) isn’t going to prevent me from adding a 27 year old, stud SS.

[bmags]

42 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Replacing the 26-year-old Bogaerts, who’s posted an exceptional 17.4 fWAR over the last four seasons, would be nearly impossible, and the rental market, at least in recent times, leaves little to be desired.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/12/red-sox-notes-bogaerts-payroll-sale-catchers.html

 

So we’re back to changing positions for Anderson, Moncada, or both?

He’s played only 50 career games for the Red Sox at 3B.

Are you seriously concerned about moving Tim Anderson for a Bogaerts? 

[bmags]

6 hours ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

This thread isn't meant to be a concession to Harper and Manny, I still think we have a pretty good shot at locking down Manny, but in the event that the Sox miss out on both of them, and maybe even Grandal and Keuchel, the Sox may start the 2019 season with still a TON of money left unused.

So, hopefully that leads Hahn down some creative paths to adding players, via a SECONDARY free agent market. Buying big contracts off of other teams. The idea being that the team looking to offload their contracts on to us would have to also throw in some prospects to help facilitate the move (unless you're the Reds, then you GIVE AWAY those prospects for the right absorb other team's salary dumps).

Here is a list of players on non-contending teams, that might be available for the Sox to grab, in order of AAV. Consider this list how much you would be "signing" these players for right now. I excluded complete albatross contracts or guys at a position that wouldn't make sense for the Sox.

SP Zack Grienke (35) - 3 yrs/$104.5M

SP Felix Hernandez (33) - 1 yr/$27.8M

RF Jason Heyward (29) - 5 yrs/$118.5M

SP Jordan Zimmermann (33) - 2 yrs/$50M

OF Jacoby Ellsbury (35) - 2 yrs/$47.3M

SP Johnny Cueto (33) - 3 yrs/$68M

OF Alex Gordon (35) 1 yr/$24M

SP Jeff Samardzija (34) 2 yrs/$39.6M

3B Evan Longoria (33) 4 yrs/$72.5M

SP Mike Leake (31) 2 yrs/$36M

SP Wei-Yin Chen (34) 2 yrs/$42M

3B Kyle Seager (31) 3 yrs/$60.5M

 

The rest of the list I used is here..... https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/rankings/average/

Ok, now FanGraphs has put together an awesome system of determining the dollar amount to attach to each prospect, based on their FV. And they've translated that calculation to their top 131 list. Now this list is as of sometime during the 2018 season, so these values will change since they are making their way through the 2019 updated lists, but this will at least provide some sort of idea.

So I am going to work under the idea that $8M equals 1 WAR, so use STEAMER to figure their value. The difference between their contract and their STEAMER projected value will be what the team will have to pay the Sox to cover the gap. Feel free to make your own calculations using this Fangraphs resource..... https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/

 

Just using the list above, I'm going to copy and paste that list below, but add in the potential prospects + cash it may cost the team for the Sox to take on that salary dump. So I'm subtracting the $8M/WAR for what STEAMER says they will produce in 2019, and then cutting that number in half for each year thereafter for regression, with 1 WAR or $8M being the lowest any player will go. Heyward, due to his age, will maintain his STEAMER projections until age 31 season, then he will lose half each year. Grienke, for example, is projected for 3.3 fWAR in 2019. So his 2019 value will be about $27M. Then that will cut to about $13M in 2020, and $8M in 2021. So his projected value for 3 years will be $48M. That means he is a net-negative of about $56M. The Dbacks trade will reflect the $56M difference.

 

SP Zack Grienke (35) - 3 yrs/$104.5M - For SP Jon Duplantier + $30M

SP Felix Hernandez (33) - 1 yr/$27.8M - For OF Kyle Lewis + $15M

RF Jason Heyward (29) - 5 yrs/$118.5M For C Miguel Amaya, 2B Nico Hoerner + $20M

SP Jordan Zimmermann (33) - 2 yrs/$50M For SP Matt Manning + $15M

OF Jacoby Ellsbury (35) - 2 yrs/$47.3M For SP Albert Abreu + $15M

SP Johnny Cueto (33) - 3 yrs/$68M For CF Heliot Ramos + $25M

OF Alex Gordon (35) 1 yr/$24M For RF Kyle Isbel + $10M

SP Jeff Samardzija (34) 2 yrs/$39.6M For CF Heliot Ramos + $5M

3B Evan Longoria (33) 4 yrs/$72.5M For CF Heliot Ramos, SS Marco Luciano + $10M

SP Mike Leake (31) 2 yrs/$36M For OF Kyle Lewis + $10M

SP Wei-Yin Chen (34) 2 yrs/$42M For SP Braxton Garrett + $10M

3B Kyle Seager (31) 3 yrs/$60.5M For OF Kyle Lewis, P Logan Gilbert + $10M

 

With the Mariners it was hard, since they have 0 guys on FG top 131, so I just took Kyle Lewis, their #1 prospect, and assumed his value would be around $5M, instead of $9M for least valuable guy on FG list. And then I also chose not to assume any teams would give up their elite prospects in a salary dump. For the Giants, even though Joey Bart's $30M evaluation would have fit this scenario, I can't imagine the Giants would give him up just to free up a contract. So I went for Heliot Ramos who was valued at $16M instead, and then threw in money.

 

Are any of those deals ones you guys would want the Sox to take? Got any ideas of your own using the links? If Hahn can't spend Jerry's money on FA this winter, I hope he is able to find creative ways like this to buy some prospects with that money.

This is good but I have not seen the market treat buying a prospect the way the market price hypotheticals have said they would to date. Mostly lower level guys.

[Bob Sacamano]

11 minutes ago, bmags said:

This is good but I have not seen the market treat buying a prospect the way the market price hypotheticals have said they would to date. Mostly lower level guys.

Yeah these just seem like overpays.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

CIH I applaud your efforts . True fan numero uno !

[Lip Man 1]

Relief pitchers have been coming off the board lately, time for Hahn to get moving and get more bullpen help in my opinion.

[TheFutureIsNear]

Jose Abreu for Ian Desmond, Riley Pint and $14M 

 

Jose and Desmond’s $ about equals out in 2019, we get Riley Pint for paying $11M to Desmond in 2020 while the Rockies pay only $4M, and then the Rockies chip in $10M for Desmond’s entire 2021 salary + $2M buyout. 

 

Probably doesn’t quite equal out to the formula because clearly OP is way smarter than me lol...I feel like we would probably get another prospect as well as Pint because Desmond for Jose at similar prices isn’t fair on our end. At least a Yonathan Daza or Josh Fuentes type of older prospect we could give some major league AB’s to next year. 

 

 

[caulfield12]

3 hours ago, bmags said:

Are you seriously concerned about moving Tim Anderson for a Bogaerts? 

The fact that arguably our current (overall) best position player is being moved off his best defensive position isn’t ideal, but we have never really had any problems in the recent history of our franchise with thinking we can move players around like pieces on a chessboard without any consequences to their hitting.

One would think finding a natural 3B or natural RFer might be a somewhat better idea.