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Machado signs with Padres 10/300

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A couple random thoughts/observations:

If the Sox have been targeting this free agent class for 2+ years, there is no way they could have known back then that none of the big teams -- Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs, Red Sox, Giants, etc. -- were going to be seriously involved in this bidding.

They had to have assumed that the winning bid was going to be 9-10 years and $300+ million dollars, and thus seemingly have been prepared to pay that.

They wouldn't open with a bid like that, however, but rather something like the reported 7 year deal, and work up from there.

The Sox are as surprised as everyone else that no other team has pushed them to go higher.  They are ready and willing to go higher, but they are not going to bid against themselves.

My guess is Lozano knows that the Sox are prepared to go much higher, and it's driving him absolutely crazy that he can't get more involvement from other teams to push the Sox up.

What we saw yesterday was Lozano's frustration finally boiling over.

I don't think this stalemate has anything to do with Lozano/Manny not wanting to play for the Sox, but in Lozano knowing he could get more money from the Sox if some other team would just get involved.

Edited by Perfect Vision
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26 minutes ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

 

That’s assuming that’s the real offer on the table. I tend to believe it is, however what if the 7/175 is legit? You have to entertain the idea that it could be, no matter how unlikely. I don’t think he accepts that. What’s the Yankees payroll look like heading into 2020? If they have a lot of money coming off the books I could see Manny trying this all over again with them next offseason.

The Yankees have $130 million in contracts guaranteed for 2020 and B-R estimates $40 million in arb costs (this number is reasonable as it includes Sanchez, Severino, Judge, and Paxton, it could even be low). Their luxury tax number is probably close to $185  million assuming they don't nontender someone like Paxton. The useful guys they will have to replace or resign include Sabathia, Brett Gardner (I think he'll be back on short deals until he retires), Betances, and Didi Gregorius. They will be out of Sonny Gray's deal, but clearly they will need at least 1 more starting pitcher next offseason and there are several big ones available. 

It's the Yankees and I don't run them, but if I were in their situation, my priority would be one of those top 4 starting pitchers, which would push me right up to the luxury tax line. I do not know what they would do about losing Betances in the bullpen.

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Just now, centerfieldsixers said:

belle was a great contract. You just couldn't go trick or treating at his house thats all

He basically lived across the street from me. I had no idea until he sold his house.

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10 minutes ago, centerfieldsixers said:

i dont see any player taking a 1 year deal and leaving 175 on the table. if he did take that gamble he has some big nuts

No way.. He could get 6 years for 120 million if he tore his ACL tomorrow. a 1 year 40 million deal is FAR BETTER than 7 for 175. 

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38 minutes ago, Quin said:

There were 22 other Big Sexys.

Also because Bartolo is a piece of shit human being, people only love him because he's fat and old.

Do tell.

13 minutes ago, centerfieldsixers said:

i dont see any player taking a 1 year deal and leaving 175 on the table. if he did take that gamble he has some big nuts

If he really thinks he could get a contract for $325 next offseason, he might do it. Leaving $135 mil or so on the table this year to potentially get a contract worth $150 mil more than this next year? I wouldn't bet on it, but I could see it.

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1 hour ago, BigSexy23 said:

One thing I've learned from all of this is how clueless Yankees fans are about baseball

That could be said about fans of any team. They may have more bandwagon/meatball fans than most but trust me there are plenty of Yankee fans that know baseball.

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Can you imagine if 175 gets it done though? (I know it wont) . The rebuild could literally be completed by next season with all the extra cash the team would have. Bonkers. 

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5 minutes ago, Roughneck said:

Do tell.

If he really thinks he could get a contract for $325 next offseason, he might do it. Leaving $135 mil or so on the table this year to potentially get a contract worth $150 mil more than this next year? I wouldn't bet on it, but I could see it.

Had a second family while married to his wife.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/nypost.com/2016/05/18/bartolo-colons-double-life-with-secret-family/amp

And lest anyone forget, he literally just quit on the Sox 

 

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Put on your tinfoil hats, it's conspiracy theory time:

Ricketts and co., worried one of the guys their fans are screaming for goes to the other side of town while he's busy pretending to not have any money, put out the 175 report to create hostility and derail negotiations. Deep State strikes again.

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8 minutes ago, cjgalloway said:

No way.. He could get 6 years for 120 million if he tore his ACL tomorrow. a 1 year 40 million deal is FAR BETTER than 7 for 175. 

When you are talking about that amount of money I think there is less worry about an injury like an ACL tear and more concern about something more career threatening. This is generational wealth we are talking about. Risking leaving over $100 million of guaranteed money on the table would be too risky for me. A much better option would be to try to front load the contract as much as possible and get the opt out after the fourth year to hopefully make it back in the market with the new CBA and hopefully better conditions for free agents. That way he gets guarantees himself the huge contract in case of injury, but also has the opportunity to hopefully find better market conditions. The odds of anything really changing in one year are pretty small anyway. The low contract figures seemingly have less to do with his performance and much more to do with the general conditions for free agents with the current CBA and how advantageous it is to just use pre-arb players. 

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Reading the replies that this could be Boras leading the leaks, I doubt it for one simple reason.  It is better for his client to have Manny Machado get a huge contract, because that gives him another comp to use in his own negotiations.  If Manny is only worth $175 million, how does he justify Bryce being worth double that amount?  How does he also keep bidders interested in Bryce if they know the could spend $100 million less and get a similar player?

It doesn't make sense to me.

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23 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

It depends on whether or not he wants to bet on himself. There is considerable risk, but it could pay off. 

It isn't as crazy as you think it is. It would take los cajones grandes, but there is a non-zero chance that he does it. 

Bet on what exactly?  Its not like he's coming off a bad season.  Machado is not leaving $200M on the table to play on a 1 year deal for marginally more money than he'd make in 2019 on a longer-term deal, only to hit FA again next winter and go through this process again.

There is a zero percent chance he takes a 1 year deal.  

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1 minute ago, GenericUserName said:

When you are talking about that amount of money I think there is less worry about an injury like an ACL tear and more concern about something more career threatening. This is generational wealth we are talking about. Risking leaving over $100 million of guaranteed money on the table would be too risky for me. A much better option would be to try to front load the contract as much as possible and get the opt out after the fourth year to hopefully make it back in the market with the new CBA and hopefully better conditions for free agents. That way he gets guarantees himself the huge contract in case of injury, but also has the opportunity to hopefully find better market conditions. The odds of anything really changing in one year are pretty small anyway. The low contract figures seemingly have less to do with his performance and much more to do with the general conditions for free agents with the current CBA and how advantageous it is to just use pre-arb players. 

You said it better than me. Also even if he did take a 1 year deal, he risks more damage to his reputation, what kind of Manny would you get? Motivated? pissed off? pressing too much? Too risky. I dont see the market next year for 325 and you have Arrenado on the market

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6 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Bet on what exactly?  Its not like he's coming off a bad season.  Machado is not leaving $200M on the table to play on a 1 year deal for marginally more money than he'd make in 2019 on a longer-term deal, only to hit FA again next winter and go through this process again.

There is a zero percent chance he takes a 1 year deal.  

Not only is he not coming off a bad year, he's coming off the best offensive year he's ever had. If he didn't get traded, and stuck at 3rd he'd have had legit MVP buzz

Edited by mqr

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1 minute ago, Roughneck said:

Wow. I knew about him quitting, but just attributed it to him being nuts. This is messed up.

And probably significantly more common than most think. 

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2 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

And probably significantly more common than most think. 

I will never understand this, one family is already enough work. 😅

Edited by GermanSoxFan
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I don’t see any possibility that Lazano or Boras leaked the 175.  For Lazano it will of course devalue his client.  And if Boras leaked it would hurt Harpers value.  Boras needs Machado to sign a good deal which then he would then try to beat.   

 

 With yesterday’s side show I am of the mind that the Sox leaked 175.  If their real offer if I’m 210-225 ballpark but Lozano is leaking Sox offer 250 to get the Phils to pony up, the Sox could play the same game and stick it to them by throwing out the 175.  

 

Unique situation with 2 guys for 2 teams, it’s making this negotiation a bit wacky.  

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16 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Bet on what exactly?  Its not like he's coming off a bad season.  Machado is not leaving $200M on the table to play on a 1 year deal for marginally more money than he'd make in 2019 on a longer-term deal, only to hit FA again next winter and go through this process again.

There is a zero percent chance he takes a 1 year deal.  

Completely disagree. If his market is actually only the Sox and Phillies, then he could potentially make even more next year on a long-term deal. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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18 minutes ago, mqr said:

Put on your tinfoil hats, it's conspiracy theory time:

Ricketts and co., worried one of the guys their fans are screaming for goes to the other side of town while he's busy pretending to not have any money, put out the 175 report to create hostility and derail negotiations. Deep State strikes again.

If you want to take the conspiracy even further, maybe he’s pissed because he knows the Sox are gonna announce this tomorrow (day 1 of cubs convention) to take attention away from them 

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I recall Ozzie saying Bartolo disappeared from the Sox because he was upset Michael Jackson died, which personally I find really funny. I don’t see him as the type of guy dancing around to P.Y.T. Hahahaha

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4 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Completely disagree. If his market is actually only the Sox and Phillies, then he could potentially make even more next year on a long-term deal. 

Yah, I think its been well established that he would have / could have gotten paid more in a different offseason when certain other teams were in the shopping mood.  A little bit of bad timing for MM, no doubt. 

But he could also sustain a career ending injury playing on a 1 year deal in 2019 and cost himself $200M+.  It isn't happening man.   I am far more inclined to believe the current offer is 8/$250M as opposed 7/$175M, so that is partially why I am so confident.  

Edited by ChiSox59
fixed typo

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