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Machado signs with Padres 10/300

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26 minutes ago, raBBit said:

I never said something was happening at Sox fest. Chili said something was happening and and everyone was talking about that and I said something like "I wonder what the Sox do with the info" or that if he release something watch their twitter on the hour.  I was operating off of something I had heard from someone else but I was not at the liberty to share and didn't see anything other than speculate. And, I don't have any info on it but Hahn said this weekend that things fell through in the last 48 hours. The Sox are setting up their moves for if they get Machado or if they don't. If Lozano has heartburn the Sox may be less inclined to complete a given move.

This offseason I haven't been able to really talk about anything as a fan. I've said stuff in the beginning of the offseason and immediately had to respond to my post that was screenshotted and brought to twitter. To be clear, I may not on twitter or soxtalk all week and then yesterday I am informed that I am in the middle of some big kerfuffle where literally 75%+ of the info being thrown around is wrong and a lot of people who haven't been here for a few years is saying stuff that I don't know where they get it from. Also, please keep in mind that I work really long hours and focus on my personal life on the weekend. I may post something and not see the response to it for 5-6-7 days. I may post during lunch (like now) and then be staring into my work until 9PM. I am not running for anything, I wish I could post more. There are far too many people here who would gladly acknowledge I'll back up words far beyond where I need to go. 

A lot of this drama is going to happen naturally with the Sox being in the midst of this big saga but when it devolves into throwing stones at Shack I don't know what to tell you. I should say, I was very happy to see some of the older posters come in and put the hammer down on that as they historically have.

I think we all *cough cough* especially the newer posters *cough cough* need to have a bit more of a questioning mindset of these new posters with sources. In the past, you'd be questioned pretty hard trying to pass info as a new poster. Now there are reddit burner accounts breaking news and anything is considered and that's fair but just try to take everything in stride. I think this whole dilemma has shown the execs aren't confident in anything. It's had the national insiders being dragged through the mud. The local insiders have looked ridiculous. People are being used left and right.

The players are running out of time. Relax until then. 

 

Makes sense completely. The misinformation has been brutal from the National guys to especially the local beat guys. 

We are nearing the end of this process and I would imagine the Machado/Harper saga will draw to a close in the coming few weeks. Neither player is taking a one year deal or is likely to drag negotiations into the season. Sox are in a good spot, just need to continue to be patient. 

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58 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

The only “leverage” the White Sox have is their ability to be the highest bidder. And in the current CBA, that is nothing to take lightly. 

But there are no hardline negotiation tricks the White Sox can pull that are going to change how this thing turns out. Everyone involved knows the score.

Just follow the facts and logic. 

1. The White Sox are in NO hurry. They have publicly expressed it, and everyone knew it anyway. They are on the up in a rebuild no matter who they sign this year. They do not expect to win in 2019, and therefore there is no reason they would ever put a hard deadline on an offer. Unlike contenders, the do not need to pivot. Any suggestion that their offer is limited or coming off the table would correctly be perceived as insubstantive, impatient bluster. 

2. The White Sox have elected to give a “reasonable*” bid and have refused to move off of it until they are outbid. This is a rational course of action, even though it may frustrate Machado’s camp. Their current bid does not imply that they are not willing to go higher if necessary. Reported Mystery teams that are now interested because “the bidding is lower than expected” serve as no threat, so long as the White Sox are actually willing to win bidding up to a somewhat reasonable point. By definition, these mystery teams were not interested in the expected winning bid levels, and so the most they can do is force to White Sox to increase their bid — something they should have been willing to do from the start. 

3. There is no reason for either Harper or Machado to expect that the others contract “precedent” will affect their own. This is basic economics. Whoever signs the first one will win the bidding by offering the highest amount of money that anyone was willing to offer. Therefore, there will by definition be no one left on the market that was willing to pay that amount. When you remove an asset from the market, you also remove a bidder. Each team values each asset based on their internal resources and needs, which are varied and myriad. They will not pay above the number, regardless of what other teams pay for other assets. 

4. If there’s any reason for either player to worry about the other’s contract, it’s the fact that a signing effectively removes a bidder from the process.

I said this a few weeks ago when the media was talking about things “getting wrapped up soon” and it remains true today: I don’t see any reason for this not to keep dragging out. Lozano knows the White Sox offer isn’t what he wants, but he also knows it isn’t going anywhere. There is no reason for him not to continue to try to find better offers all the way the wire. This remains true even if the White Sox DID decide to “bid against themselves” and increase their offer.

The White Sox are still well positioned to get one of these guys, but there isn’t anything they can do to rush the process. 

 

But it does allow the impasse to continue over which year the opt out kicks in if they’re (the Machado camp) not really convinced the White Sox are the best situation long-term.

It’s also not wrong for him to be at least a little hesitant about being locked in for 4 years with only one of those likely including his buddies and BIL.  Especially going into the offseason expecting at least $275 million...you want an inspired/motivated version of Machado, which is why there must be some follow up moves to at least make contention in 2019 a glimmer of a possibility if you squint hard enough.

Otherwise, you run the risk of his becoming a not so positive role model to the likes of Jimenez and Moncada if they end up around 60-65 wins again.

Edited by caulfield12

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22 minutes ago, raBBit said:

I never said something was happening at Sox fest. Chili said something was happening and and everyone was talking about that and I said something like "I wonder what the Sox do with the info" or that if he release something watch their twitter on the hour.  I was operating off of something I had heard from someone else but I was not at the liberty to share and didn't see anything other than speculate. And, I don't have any info on it but Hahn said this weekend that things fell through in the last 48 hours. The Sox are setting up their moves for if they get Machado or if they don't. If Lozano has heartburn the Sox may be less inclined to complete a given move.

This offseason I haven't been able to really talk about anything as a fan. I've said stuff in the beginning of the offseason and immediately had to respond to my post that was screenshotted and brought to twitter. To be clear, I may not on twitter or soxtalk all week and then yesterday I am informed that I am in the middle of some big kerfuffle where literally 75%+ of the info being thrown around is wrong and a lot of people who haven't been here for a few years is saying stuff that I don't know where they get it from. Also, please keep in mind that I work really long hours and focus on my personal life on the weekend. I may post something and not see the response to it for 5-6-7 days. I may post during lunch (like now) and then be staring into my work until 9PM. I am not running for anything, I wish I could post more. There are far too many people here who would gladly acknowledge I'll back up words far beyond where I need to go. 

A lot of this drama is going to happen naturally with the Sox being in the midst of this big saga but when it devolves into throwing stones at Shack I don't know what to tell you. I should say, I was very happy to see some of the older posters come in and put the hammer down on that as they historically have.

I think we all *cough cough* especially the newer posters *cough cough* need to have a bit more of a questioning mindset of these new posters with sources. In the past, you'd be questioned pretty hard trying to pass info as a new poster. Now there are reddit burner accounts breaking news and anything is considered and that's fair but just try to take everything in stride. I think this whole dilemma has shown the execs aren't confident in anything. It's had the national insiders being dragged through the mud. The local insiders have looked ridiculous. People are being used left and right.

The players are running out of time. Relax until then. 

 

Much appreciated that you took the time to write all that.  One of the things that sticks out to me is that you said you "haven't been able to really talk about anything as a fan" this offseason. I think everybody should let that sink in and realize that you are in a tough spot a lot of the time. You want to come here and talk White Sox and speculate on things, but you run the risk of people hounding you for information as if you automatically know something.

Keep up the good work and know that the majority of people here appreciate any info you are able to provide. We know that any info you give is a bonus and not an expectation.

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24 minutes ago, raBBit said:

I never said something was happening at Sox fest. Chili said something was happening and and everyone was talking about that and I said something like "I wonder what the Sox do with the info" or that if he release something watch their twitter on the hour.  I was operating off of something I had heard from someone else but I was not at the liberty to share and didn't see anything other than speculate. And, I don't have any info on it but Hahn said this weekend that things fell through in the last 48 hours. The Sox are setting up their moves for if they get Machado or if they don't. If Lozano has heartburn the Sox may be less inclined to complete a given move.

This offseason I haven't been able to really talk about anything as a fan. I've said stuff in the beginning of the offseason and immediately had to respond to my post that was screenshotted and brought to twitter. To be clear, I may not on twitter or soxtalk all week and then yesterday I am informed that I am in the middle of some big kerfuffle where literally 75%+ of the info being thrown around is wrong and a lot of people who haven't been here for a few years is saying stuff that I don't know where they get it from. Also, please keep in mind that I work really long hours and focus on my personal life on the weekend. I may post something and not see the response to it for 5-6-7 days. I may post during lunch (like now) and then be staring into my work until 9PM. I am not running for anything, I wish I could post more. There are far too many people here who would gladly acknowledge I'll back up words far beyond where I need to go. 

A lot of this drama is going to happen naturally with the Sox being in the midst of this big saga but when it devolves into throwing stones at Shack I don't know what to tell you. I should say, I was very happy to see some of the older posters come in and put the hammer down on that as they historically have.

I think we all *cough cough* especially the newer posters *cough cough* need to have a bit more of a questioning mindset of these new posters with sources. In the past, you'd be questioned pretty hard trying to pass info as a new poster. Now there are reddit burner accounts breaking news and anything is considered and that's fair but just try to take everything in stride. I think this whole dilemma has shown the execs aren't confident in anything. It's had the national insiders being dragged through the mud. The local insiders have looked ridiculous. People are being used left and right.

The players are running out of time. Relax until then. 

 

Keep doing what you do, man.  You bring a lot to us all and no one with any sense doubts it.  This crap is particularly hard to pin down.  It’s not like we’re signing Adam LaRoche—it’s a franchise face changing/MLB landscape changing off season and it’s more than something 1 person can predict.  Looking forward to the time you can participate as a fan again!  More fun that way anyway!  

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The thing I always think about is the fact the agent can always say there is a better offer and you need to match it whether or not there is one. Obviously, an agent who does this and ultimately never produces said higher offer (via a signing with a different team at a higher price) will get sniffed out by GMs who negotiate with that agent. But nobody knows when the GM gets nervous and bids against himself because he took the bait. It would be a slow learning process.

I'm glad I don't have to do this negotiating. When we say the Sox may have the high offer but it's just not as high as Machado's camp wants, let's assume it's true. When Lozano shows up and says okay White Sox, we now have an offer that is $3M/year higher, he could be bluffing...or not. If you fall for the bluff, you overpay. If you call the bluff but there really was a higher offer, you lose the player that is supposed to turn your franchise around. The stakes are pretty high here...it's not hard to see why for so long players tended to get big contracts that in retrospect seemed to be big overpays.

Edited by Jake

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54 minutes ago, raBBit said:

I never said something was happening at Sox fest. Chili said something was happening and and everyone was talking about that and I said something like "I wonder what the Sox do with the info" or that if he release something watch their twitter on the hour.  I was operating off of something I had heard from someone else but I was not at the liberty to share and didn't see anything other than speculate. And, I don't have any info on it but Hahn said this weekend that things fell through in the last 48 hours. The Sox are setting up their moves for if they get Machado or if they don't. If Lozano has heartburn the Sox may be less inclined to complete a given move.

This offseason I haven't been able to really talk about anything as a fan. I've said stuff in the beginning of the offseason and immediately had to respond to my post that was screenshotted and brought to twitter. To be clear, I may not on twitter or soxtalk all week and then yesterday I am informed that I am in the middle of some big kerfuffle where literally 75%+ of the info being thrown around is wrong and a lot of people who haven't been here for a few years is saying stuff that I don't know where they get it from. Also, please keep in mind that I work really long hours and focus on my personal life on the weekend. I may post something and not see the response to it for 5-6-7 days. I may post during lunch (like now) and then be staring into my work until 9PM. I am not running for anything, I wish I could post more. There are far too many people here who would gladly acknowledge I'll back up words far beyond where I need to go. 

A lot of this drama is going to happen naturally with the Sox being in the midst of this big saga but when it devolves into throwing stones at Shack I don't know what to tell you. I should say, I was very happy to see some of the older posters come in and put the hammer down on that as they historically have.

I think we all *cough cough* especially the newer posters *cough cough* need to have a bit more of a questioning mindset of these new posters with sources. In the past, you'd be questioned pretty hard trying to pass info as a new poster. Now there are reddit burner accounts breaking news and anything is considered and that's fair but just try to take everything in stride. I think this whole dilemma has shown the execs aren't confident in anything. It's had the national insiders being dragged through the mud. The local insiders have looked ridiculous. People are being used left and right.

The players are running out of time. Relax until then. 

 

I appreciate you clarifying some things but can someone please point me to when Hahn said something fell through in the last 48 hours? I must of missed it

Edited by Orlando
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1 hour ago, Charlie Haeger's Knuckles said:

I feel like Machado might friendzone the White Sox.

Or at least the bulls/sox academy. 

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2 minutes ago, Jake said:

The thing I always think about is the fact the agent can always say there is a better offer and you need to match it whether or not there is one. Obviously, an agent who does this and ultimately never produces said higher offer (via a signing with a different team at a higher price) will get sniffed out by GMs who negotiate with that agent. But nobody knows when the GM gets nervous and bids against himself because he took the bait. It would be a slow learning process.

I'm glad I don't have to do this negotiating. When we say the Sox may have the high offer but it's just not as high as Machado's camp wants, let's assume it's true. When Lozano shows up and says okay White Sox, we now have an offer that is $3M/year higher, he could be bluffing...or not. If you fall for the bluff, you overpay. If you call the bluff but there really was a higher offer, you lose the player that is supposed to turn your franchise around. The stakes are pretty high here...it's not hard to see why for so long players tended to get big contracts that in retrospect seemed to be big overpays.

The thing that the White Sox are going to do with that sort of maneuver is likely to try to lock the guy in on signing. If Machado's agent comes to the White Sox and says he has an offer $3 million per year higher than the White Sox, the White Sox's solution is not to just say they'll match it, it's instead to say "are you prepared to sign with the Chicago White Sox today if we have the best offer on the table, and what restrictions (swelloptwhatever) do you need on the contract to make an agreement happen". If Lozano's side is putting offers on the table that are close to what the White Sox have offered and they say they're willing to sign, then you go ahead and accept it. You don't just keep upping your offer until they reach a point where they will sign if you do up your offer.

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2 minutes ago, Jake said:

The thing I always think about is the fact the agent can always say there is a better offer and you need to match it whether or not there is one. Obviously, an agent who does this and ultimately never produces said higher offer (via a signing with a different team at a higher price) will get sniffed out by GMs who negotiate with that agent. But nobody knows when the GM gets nervous and bids against himself because he took the bait. It would be a slow learning process.

I'm glad I don't have to do this negotiating. When we say the Sox may have the high offer but it's just not as high as Machado's camp wants, let's assume it's true. When Lozano shows up and says okay White Sox, we now have an offer that is $3M/year higher, he could be bluffing...or not. If you fall for the bluff, you overpay. If you call the bluff, you lose the player that is supposed to turn your franchise around. The stakes are pretty high here...it's not hard why for so long players tended to get big contracts that in retrospect seemed to be big overpays.

That’s where you ultimately have this, well...he’s worth $37-38 million per year to the Sox, but not $40?  You’re really going to risk the morale of the fanbase or “psychological state of the rebuild” over that gap, having already committed $13 million and arguably close to $20 million by keeping Castillo and shedding our two younger catchers?  Doesn’t make much sense.  

That said, no way they agree to $42-45 million per year AND a 3 year opt out unless the number of total years on the deal is six or no more than seven.

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1 hour ago, bmags said:

Sit down before you read this, but I believe both Manny and Harper are very good.

According to who? Sources?! Please tell us!

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3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

The thing that the White Sox are going to do with that sort of maneuver is likely to try to lock the guy in on signing. If Machado's agent comes to the White Sox and says he has an offer $3 million per year higher than the White Sox, the White Sox's solution is not to just say they'll match it, it's instead to say "are you prepared to sign with the Chicago White Sox today if we have the best offer on the table, and what restrictions (swelloptwhatever) do you need on the contract to make an agreement happen". If Lozano's side is putting offers on the table that are close to what the White Sox have offered and they say they're willing to sign, then you go ahead and accept it. You don't just keep upping your offer until they reach a point where they will sign if you do up your offer.

And if they counter, we’ll get back to you in 48-72 hours...Manny and his wife need to mull it over, etc.

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19 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

But it does allow the impasse to continue over which year the opt out kicks in if they’re (the Machado camp) not really convinced the White Sox are the best situation long-term.

It’s also not wrong for him to be at least a little hesitant about being locked in for 4 years with only one of those likely including his buddies and BIL.  Especially going into the offseason expecting at least $275 million...you want an inspired/motivated version of Machado, which is why there must be some follow up moves to at least make contention in 2019 a glimmer of a possibility if you squint hard enough.

Otherwise, you run the risk of his becoming a not so positive role model to the likes of Jimenez and Moncada if they end up around 60-65 wins again.

You’re making assumptions about the White Sox contract offer and about Machado’s non-financial preferences that we simply do not know. 

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2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

And if they counter, we’ll get back to you in 48-72 hours...Manny and his wife need to mull it over, etc.

Then they're not ready to sign, and you continue negotiating and giving them whatever time they want. You don't put your best offer on the table until they're ready to sign. 

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If we get Manny this will no longer be true, but as of right now, I am having some severe envy of the Reds and their off season.

Edited by Orlando

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Just now, Orlando said:

If we get Manny this will no longer be true, but as of right now, I am having some severe envy of the Reds and their off season.

They'll finish in 4th place in their division.  I wouldn't be too jealous.  

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Just now, ChiSox59 said:

They'll finish in 4th place in their division.  I wouldn't be too jealous.  

The 2015 and 2016 white sox to the letter. Won the offseason by a big enough margin to get into 4th place. 

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2 minutes ago, Orlando said:

If we get Manny this will no longer be true, but as of right now, I am having some severe envy of the Reds and their off season.

envy over what? A temporary fix that's only going to last one year. Most of that team become FA next off-season. 

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31 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

Makes sense completely. The misinformation has been brutal from the National guys to especially the local beat guys. 

We are nearing the end of this process and I would imagine the Machado/Harper saga will draw to a close in the coming few weeks. Neither player is taking a one year deal or is likely to drag negotiations into the season. Sox are in a good spot, just need to continue to be patient. 

One can only hope.

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3 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

They'll finish in 4th place in their division.  I wouldn't be too jealous.  

But imagine a world where they manage to come in 3rd ahead of the Cubs. That would be fun.

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I appreciate that they're at least not tanking. The one year stop gaps would only be ok if they didn't deal away a couple of nice spects as well. The only deal I like so far for them is the Gray deal.

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3 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

I appreciate that they're at least not tanking. The one year stop gaps would only be ok if they didn't deal away a couple of nice spects as well. The only deal I like so far for them is the Gray deal.

Sonny Gray gives me Jeff smardajza vibes

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We keep talking about stop gaps and I  get it but seriously, our rotation depth is depleted. Getting Gray and Wood over Banuelos and Nova would have been nice. Getting Puig over Jay would have been exciting and he wouldn't of blocked anyone of significance. I am not envious of their moves because it would have made us contenders. Its not like the money we save over this off season will roll over to next. They would have come off the books and we would have moved on but it would have been a better 2019 season (barring Harpchado of course).

Edited by Orlando

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Just now, IowaPG said:

Sonny Gray gives me Jeff smardajza vibes

We paid more for Samardjiza. Reds have more depth than sox had in 2015-16, though their rotation can't handle much in terms of injuries. But their farm is much deeper than ours to get depth pieces in season.

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3 minutes ago, IowaPG said:

Sonny Gray gives me Jeff smardajza vibes

Jeff Samardjza was better than Sonny Gray at the time of their acquisitions.

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