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Machado signs with Padres 10/300

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4 minutes ago, palehose05 said:

They won't sign to 1 year deals. Nothing will change from now to next off season in terms of how the market is going to operate. By signing a year deal, they will be risking injury or a down season. Also, their agents won't let that happen.  If two of the biggest agents in baseball allow their top players to not get a good deal and let them sign 1 year deals because they were unable to produce a contract for them, that would look awful for them in terms of business.  Why would any other player hire them as their agent when those two top agents can't produce for the leagues premier talent? The less talented players wouldn't sign with these two agents who take bigger %'s out of their contracts to get an outcome that any other agent can get.

A one year deal will not happen. The market won't change next year, there is too much risk involved, their agents, and their agents ego will not allow these two generational talents to do it.

Do you know what does change though? The Yankees and Cubs lose a lot of payroll. That could make all of the difference for those guys. 

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3 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

And why would $300 million be available next year?

Yankees and Cubs have big money coming off the books. They both could fit them in without going into the tax next year, which they can't do this year. 

Edited by Jack Parkman
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Manny Machado is a 26 year old with no $300 million offers. He's not going to willingly go back out on the market as a 27 year old with a QO attached. He's not taking a 1 year deal. 

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1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

Do you know what does change though? The Yankees and Cubs lose a lot of payroll. That could make all of the difference for those guys. 

They do, but the Yankees will not be in the market for a 3B or OF. They will be seeking starting pitching. The Cubs will also be looking for starting pitching, but they will not have the payroll they we do. The Sox will still be able to outbid the Cubs for Machado. Not to mention, if that were to be the case, the Sox would be entering their window to compete in 2020 so they will outbid anyone for him then.  Playing for the Cubs may sound more appealing but by the time of 2020, all of the Cubs core will slowly be coming off their contracts. They would be signing a long term contract with a team who will fall into the bottom of the standings after 2 years of the multi-year contract.

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5 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Cubs have big money coming off the books. 

As their Arb guys continue to balloon, they need to build a bullpen, and add a starter or 3. Plus there's two 3rd basemen almost equally as attractive next year. The money is not going to be there in twelve months. 

Edited by mqr
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1 minute ago, mqr said:

As their Arb guys continue to balloon, they need to build a bullpen, and add a starter or 3. Plus there's two 3rd basemen almost equally as attractive next year. The money is not going to be there in twelve months. 

I think both Arenado and Rendon are going to re-sign where they are. 

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6 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Yankees and Cubs have big money coming off the books. They both could fit them in without going into the tax next year, which they can't do this year. 

What big money would that be?

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Just now, BlackSox13 said:

What big money would that be?

Ellsbury and Gardner for the Yankees, Zobrist+others for the Cubs. 

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2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Rule #1: No one WANTS to go to Philly.

Which makes the general sentiment of Harper to Philly being a foregone conclusion sort of foggy 

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5 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

And why would $300 million be available next year?

One interesting factor is that you have MLB and the union talking about some mid-CBA changes that the union certainly hopes will juice the FA market a little.  I’m not sure that any of the proposed changes that have been publicly reported are material enough to make a difference on a huge contract like Machado and Harper want, but they may well want to give it another run in a year or two.  I’d still be surprised if either signs a 1 year deal though.  If I were them, I’d take the best long term deal I can get but push for an opt out by Year 3 at the latest.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the stalemate goes into the regular season.  

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2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I think both Arenado and Rendon are going to re-sign where they are. 

Okay that's fine, Dan Lozano would be an absolute moron to operate under that assumption.

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1 minute ago, bighurt574 said:

  I wouldn’t be surprised if the stalemate goes into the regular season.  

It's embarrassing that this is even a possibility

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1 minute ago, bighurt574 said:

One interesting factor is that you have MLB and the union talking about some mid-CBA changes that the union certainly hopes will juice the FA market a little.  I’m not sure that any of the proposed changes that have been publicly reported are material enough to make a difference on a huge contract like Machado and Harper want, but they may well want to give it another run in a year or two.  I’d still be surprised if either signs a 1 year deal though.  If I were them, I’d take the best long term deal I can get but push for an opt out by Year 3 at the latest.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the stalemate goes into the regular season.  

If that is the case(opt-outs early and often) then neither player makes sense for the White Sox. If all goes well from here, their window doesn't become wide open until 2021. They'd be gone by then. 

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10 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Yankees and Cubs have big money coming off the books. They both could fit them in without going into the tax next year, which they can't do this year. 

If that were the only holdup, they could still do a long term, somewhat backloaded contract now, right?

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11 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Yankees and Cubs have big money coming off the books. 

 

3 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Ellsbury and Gardner for the Yankees, Zobrist+others for the Cubs. 

Ellsbury doesn't come off, and Gardner came off this year, and Harper isn't there. The Cubs have a ton of additional money being added without adding anyone.

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Just now, bighurt574 said:

If that were the only holdup, they could still do a long term, somewhat backloaded contract now, right?

Luxury tax is based off the AAV of the deal, not the yearly figure. Therefore backloading it wouldn't make a difference 

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1 minute ago, bighurt574 said:

If that were the only holdup, they could still do a long term, somewhat backloaded contract now, right?

Not really. They're both so damn close to the tax this year that they really can't do anything else. 

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1 minute ago, bighurt574 said:

If that were the only holdup, they could still do a long term, somewhat backloaded contract now, right?

Nope. Luxury Tax is calculated by AAV so it doesn't matter if it is back-loaded.

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2 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Ellsbury doesn't come off, and Gardner came off this year, and Harper isn't there. The Cubs have a ton of additional money being added without adding anyone.

The Cubs aren't signing any big fish until Lester and Heyward are gone. And even then the big fish might just be keeping Bryant and Baez around. 

Edited by mqr
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11 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Rule #1: No one WANTS to go to Philly.

To be fair, no one really wants to go to the South Side of Chicago either.

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8 minutes ago, bighurt574 said:

One interesting factor is that you have MLB and the union talking about some mid-CBA changes that the union certainly hopes will juice the FA market a little.  I’m not sure that any of the proposed changes that have been publicly reported are material enough to make a difference on a huge contract like Machado and Harper want, but they may well want to give it another run in a year or two.  I’d still be surprised if either signs a 1 year deal though.  If I were them, I’d take the best long term deal I can get but push for an opt out by Year 3 at the latest.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the stalemate goes into the regular season.  

I posted something a while back in this 75000 post thread but I think any union aims must be considered to be more likely to worry about the fact that only like 50% of free agents found jobs than worrying about top level numbers for Machado.

It's very unlikely that any cba changes may increase the individual contracts of Harper or Machado as much as juicing the low-level, mid level markets to get jobs.

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