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Manny: Agent of Chaos

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1 minute ago, Fan O'Faust said:

That's not true, not with less than a handful of teams being seriously engaged for both players.  

The reality is, if the Sox actually do sign one of them, the odds are extremely high that they withdraw from the process with the other one.  I'd even be willing to bet that both players know that this is the White Sox position and would fully expect that both players have been told that the first to accept an offer is the one they will sign. 

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1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

The reality is, if the Sox actually do sign one of them, the odds are extremely high that they withdraw from the process with the other one.  I'd even be willing to bet that both players know that this is the White Sox position and would fully expect that both players have been told that the first to accept an offer is the one they will sign. 

There would be a little more urgency by the players if this were true. If the sox pull out on one of them they lose a lot of leverage.

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10 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Yes it is.  We are talking about 1% tops, probably a fraction of that to be honest.

We could still envision it! I agree that it's very unlikely, but like I have said before, one or both of those guys will opt out in 3-4 years. The only way the Sox payroll is F'd when they have to pay the kids is if both of these guys turn into Heywards. I'm sure there are some discussions in the organization of signing both guys. But yeah, that's probably not happening.

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14 minutes ago, Fan O'Faust said:

That's not true, not with less than a handful of teams being seriously engaged for both players.  

There's more factors than just the amount of teams interested in either.

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7 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The reality is, if the Sox actually do sign one of them, the odds are extremely high that they withdraw from the process with the other one.  I'd even be willing to bet that both players know that this is the White Sox position and would fully expect that both players have been told that the first to accept an offer is the one they will sign. 

The Sox could most definitely fit both into the payroll.  Are they willing to expand their payroll north of $175M from 2022-2025?  Who knows.  But I do tend to agree that they would be a bit more sense of urgency from both guys if they felt teams teams like the Phillies or White Sox would only be interested in one, as that constitutes a large percentage of the interested teams.

It all comes down to price.  If the Sox can actually get Machado signed for under $250M, I think Harper is more realistic.  I also think having MM in hand would interest Harper.  But as I've said many times, I just don't think Harper is really entertaining the Sox seriosuly.  He seems like a guy that loves the limelight and is meant for a team like LAD, the Cubs, Yankees or Red Sox.  Obviously only half those teams are even somewhat in contention for him, but I think he waits it out until he gets what he wants, where he wants.  Machado is a different story, IMO.  

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13 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The reality is, if the Sox actually do sign one of them, the odds are extremely high that they withdraw from the process with the other one.  I'd even be willing to bet that both players know that this is the White Sox position and would fully expect that both players have been told that the first to accept an offer is the one they will sign. 

I wouldn’t be so sure...

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11 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The reality is, if the Sox actually do sign one of them, the odds are extremely high that they withdraw from the process with the other one.  I'd even be willing to bet that both players know that this is the White Sox position and would fully expect that both players have been told that the first to accept an offer is the one they will sign. 

You could be right, but this appears to just be pure speculation on your part, as there isn't one story out there that corroborates this point of view.  Unlike the many reports that have suggested the Sox are willing to bring both on.   

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3 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

There's more factors than just the amount of teams interested in either.

Agreed, but I think there's a significantly higher percentage chance than just 1% that we acquire both players.   

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8 minutes ago, Roughneck said:

We could still envision it! I agree that it's very unlikely, but like I have said before, one or both of those guys will opt out in 3-4 years. The only way the Sox payroll is F'd when they have to pay the kids is if both of these guys turn into Heywards. I'm sure there are some discussions in the organization of signing both guys. But yeah, that's probably not happening.

I would be really surprised if the Sox were offering any opt outs before 5 seasons (2023).  Whats the point?  Even with one in hand, the most optimistic fans think the first year of possible contention is 2020, with 2021 more likely.  Thats already three seasons.  Obviously its better to have had them for 3 seasons than none, and it helps bring the Sox back to relevance, but I think the Sox would rather pay higher AAV in those 5 years than provide opt outs before the core of the rebuild in even fully in place and had a little time to develop together in the bigs. 

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1 minute ago, Fan O'Faust said:

You could be right, but this appears to just be pure speculation on your part, as there isn't one story out there that corroborates this point of view.  Unlike the many reports that have suggested the Sox are willing to bring both on.   

Honestly, if they specifically told Scott Boras that...I don't think Boras would believe them and he'd still put in time with the White Sox even after a Machado signing. 

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9 minutes ago, yesterday333 said:

There would be a little more urgency by the players if this were true. If the sox pull out on one of them they lose a lot of leverage.

Think of it this way.  If you are going to look at the White Sox as a future $150 million payroll team, you are talking about locking up something like half of the future payroll (somewhere between $60 and $80 million a year, or 40-53%) in two players.  That means they would have to put together the rest of the 23 man roster on somewhere between $70 and $90 million.  Even if you want to push the White Sox out to a $200 million future payroll, that still leaves you 30-40% of the future payroll locked up in two players, leaving somewhere between $110 to $130 million for the other 23 players.

Is is possible to build a World Series team out of that?  Sure.  Do I see the chances as realistic?  Not really?  Do I look at the White Sox history and think it is realistic for them to tie up that much of the payroll between two players?  No.  Absolutely not.

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3 minutes ago, Fan O'Faust said:

You could be right, but this appears to just be pure speculation on your part, as there isn't one story out there that corroborates this point of view.  Unlike the many reports that have suggested the Sox are willing to bring both on.   

There have been reports that they are negotiating with both, not anything credible that they are willing to sign both.

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3 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

The Sox could most definitely fit both into the payroll.  Are they willing to expand their payroll north of $175M from 2022-2025?  Who knows.  But I do tend to agree that they would be a bit more sense of urgency from both guys if they felt teams teams like the Phillies or White Sox would only be interested in one, as that constitutes a large percentage of the interested teams.

I honestly don't think the Sox signing Machado first would hurt the market for Harper. The Sox have way more money to spend than any other team, and *could* easily sign both players. So even if the Sox nab Machado and tell Harper the deal is off the table, teams would still think the Sox are able to sign Harper. Hahn would just make vague comments like "we're looking at all ways to improve the team" and would never come out and say the Harper offer was pulled (I don't think he's even allowed to). I really don't think either player is all that concerned about losing the Sox as leverage.

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2 minutes ago, Roughneck said:

I honestly don't think the Sox signing Machado first would hurt the market for Harper. The Sox have way more money to spend than any other team, and *could* easily sign both players. So even if the Sox nab Machado and tell Harper the deal is off the table, teams would still think the Sox are able to sign Harper. Hahn would just make vague comments like "we're looking at all ways to improve the team" and would never come out and say the Harper offer was pulled (I don't think he's even allowed to). I really don't think either player is all that concerned about losing the Sox as leverage.

Yeah Harper already has the leverage with the big Nats offer.

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3 minutes ago, fathom said:

Yeah Harper already has the leverage with the big Nats offer.

An offer without opt-outs is hardly an offer

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The fact that Harper is still talking to the Nats is telling me that the market isn’t as strong for his services as once thought. At least the $$$ aspect to it. This can be a very good thing for the White Sox. 

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Maybe they have a 10 year offers out to both players, and when one player accepts the offer it is gone.  Then they have a 7 year offer on the table for the player that is still available.  

There, that basically makes sense of all the conflicting reports right?  I read their code.  Boom!

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6 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I would be really surprised if the Sox were offering any opt outs before 5 seasons (2023).  Whats the point?  Even with one in hand, the most optimistic fans think the first year of possible contention is 2020, with 2021 more likely.  Thats already three seasons.  Obviously its better to have had them for 3 seasons than none, and it helps bring the Sox back to relevance, but I think the Sox would rather pay higher AAV in those 5 years than provide opt outs before the core of the rebuild in even fully in place and had a little time to develop together in the bigs. 

Just my opinion, but I think any massive contract is going to have player opt-outs after the first 3-4 years. That's just the way the market has gone of late. Unless the market has changed for these players, as people have speculated in the last day based on Levine's 7 years tweet and the rumored offer to Machado under $250m, I'm seeing both guys getting $300+ and 10 years, with opt-outs at 4. I could surely be wrong, but I would be shocked if there are no opt-outs in either deal.

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7 minutes ago, Roughneck said:

I honestly don't think the Sox signing Machado first would hurt the market for Harper. The Sox have way more money to spend than any other team, and *could* easily sign both players. So even if the Sox nab Machado and tell Harper the deal is off the table, teams would still think the Sox are able to sign Harper. Hahn would just make vague comments like "we're looking at all ways to improve the team" and would never come out and say the Harper offer was pulled (I don't think he's even allowed to). I really don't think either player is all that concerned about losing the Sox as leverage.

Boras appears to be waiting on Machado to sign first, actually. I initially thought this would be a risk if the Sox were to sign Machado, particularly if Harper was disinterested in Philly. That may have changed, however, with their meeting with the Nats before Christmas. This presents a nice fallback option for Harper. Additionally, Boras and Co may be under the impression that a White Sox signing of Machado would not eliminate their interest in Harper. 

They seem to be willing to take the risk of having their market shrunk for the benefit of being able to build off of whatever Machado’s number ends of being. 

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40 minutes ago, beckham15 said:

Same here man, the wife is just a tad upset but I can’t get away from it 😂 

I feel you man, I’ve had to put my phone down at times just so I could focus on the wife and kids.  Rumor season is the worst for quality family life...lol.

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Listening to MLB radio in the car earlier and their speculation was that with the new Nats offer of well over 300 million, Harper was going to have a hard time choosing between LA and the Nats. They also said that Machado seemed to be deciding between his desire to play for NY and the Phillies money. At the very end they said the White Sox are still talking to both.

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Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

I feel you man, I’ve had to put my phone down at times just so I could focus on the wife and kids.  Rumor season is the worst for quality family life...lol.

You’ve also said the term “whales” more than a marine biologist has over the last two months.

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1 minute ago, iamshack said:

Boras appears to be waiting on Machado to sign first, actually. I initially thought this would be a risk if the Sox were to sign Machado, particularly if Harper was disinterested in Philly. That may have changed, however, with their meeting with the Nats before Christmas. This presents a nice fallback option for Harper. Additionally, Boras and Co may be under the impression that a White Sox signing of Machado would not eliminate their interest in Harper. 

They seem to be willing to take the risk of having their market shrunk for the benefit of being able to build off of whatever Machado’s number ends of being. 

Yep. The Nats getting back into the bidding is huge. Harper is comfortable there and could easily return and save face. And they might be the only team Harper would be willing to take a crazy contract like 1 year/$50 mil from. That would allow the Nats to take one last run at it with this core and let Harper hit the market again in a year when the conditions are more favorable for him. It would be risky as hell, but if he had his mind set on $400 mil and it's not there, maybe it happens.

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3 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Listening to MLB radio in the car earlier and their speculation was that with the new Nats offer of well over 300 million, Harper was going to have a hard time choosing between LA and the Nats. They also said that Machado seemed to be deciding between his desire to play for NY and the Phillies money. At the very end they said the White Sox are still talking to both.

It’s senseless to put any stock in these national shows. This is about ratings for them. White Sox interest doesn’t particularly drive ratings. 

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