Sox Sign Jon Jay; 1 year/$4 mil, Charlie Tilson DFA'd

[Jack Parkman]

2 hours ago, bmags said:

Palka got a lot better. And it’s not going to add a run or two, that’s ridiculous.

It was intentional hyperbole. 

[Quin]

4 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Especially since if the Phillies or Yankees had done this, all we would hear are the Is Rick Hahn Sleeping jokes.

Also, like, if he sucks and one of the Luises, Rutherford or Cordell show they deserve playing time...it's $4M.

[Quin]

2 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Get used to it. When more casual fans show up they don't quite get the big picture sometimes and when it's explained no one likes to back down .

I'm not talking about the casual fans. Long time posters are acting like they have tropes they need to stick to.

[Dick Allen]

Maybe Jay being here will help him cover with Alonso when Manny wants to cheat on his wife. I'm sure it was discussed in negotiations.

[ptatc]

4 minutes ago, Rowand44 said:

Yes you can, you know what this board is.

true.  I stand corrected.

[Buehrle>Wood]

So is anyone with me that this is a good signing in a vacuum outside of any Machado implications? It addresses multiple needs at a very cheap price. Good deal. Yonder Alonso, this isnt.

[Balta1701]

25 minutes ago, Lillian said:

Here are Jay's Career stats, in various spots, in the batting order:

I	Split	G	GS	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+
	Batting 1st	340	332	1559	1403	204	386	75	12	9	113	17	13	92	265	.275	.338	.365	.703	512	20	44	12	7	3	16	.332	93
	Batting 2nd	260	241	1068	947	160	281	41	8	9	78	19	10	70	177	.297	.359	.385	.745	365	24	24	24	3	0	10	.356	104
	Batting 3rd	12	1	13	12	2	3	2	0	1	6	0	0	0	1	.250	.308	.667	.974	8	0	1	0	0	0	0	.200	164
	Batting 4th	8	1	14	12	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	3	.083	.214	.083	.298	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	.111	-17
	Batting 5th	38	23	104	96	12	34	6	2	3	16	1	2	6	20	.354	.388	.552	.940	53	0	0	1	1	0	3	.419	156
	Batting 6th	98	85	361	319	38	84	14	0	5	41	4	0	26	51	.263	.331	.354	.685	113	11	9	1	6	5	3	.294	88
	Batting 7th	118	102	417	376	27	108	17	0	5	35	8	5	28	59	.287	.346	.372	.719	140	18	7	4	2	5	4	.328	97
	Batting 8th	109	67	301	256	35	77	12	1	1	17	4	3	27	56	.301	.389	.367	.756	94	8	12	3	3	9	4	.376	108
	Batting 9th	148	22	225	188	35	56	9	2	3	21	2	0	23	40	.298	.400	.415	.815	78	8	9	5	0	0	2	.366	123

Given his age, he is not likely to match his career stats, but anywhere around a .340, or higher OBP is fine for a 2 hole hitter. I still like Moncada as a leadoff hitter, given his speed. Jay profiles just fine as a #2, followed by the heart of the order. Hopefully, that would include Machado and, or Harper.

The reason why he has a .359 OBP in the #2 hole is that 93% of the time he spent in the 2 hole, 992 of those 1068 plate appearances, came with the Cardinals from years 2010-2014. During that time period his overall OBP was .359 - so his performance in the 2 hole just matched the hitter that he was over those seasons. He has only 76 PAs in that spot since 2015 started. He is not likely to somehow be a magically better hitter in the 2 hole just because he likes hitting 2nd, he would be more likely to be "some version of the recent Jon Jay" if he were put in that position.

[Dick Allen]

Just now, Buehrle>Wood said:

So is anyone with me that this is a good signing in a vacuum outside of any Machado implications? It addresses multiple needs at a very cheap price. Good deal. Yonder Alonso, this isnt.

He's an aging guy who is spending less and less time in CF, with no pop. If it doesn't bring Machado, it's a ridiculous signing. 

[Bob Sacamano]

2 minutes ago, Buehrle>Wood said:

So is anyone with me that this is a good signing in a vacuum outside of any Machado implications? It addresses multiple needs at a very cheap price. Good deal. Yonder Alonso, this isnt.

Yeah I actually like this one (less playing time for Engel). If they don't sign Manny, I think they flip Alonso somewhere shifting Palka back into the DH role.

Edited January 8, 2019 by soxfan2014

[bmags]

1 minute ago, Buehrle>Wood said:

So is anyone with me that this is a good signing in a vacuum outside of any Machado implications? It addresses multiple needs at a very cheap price. Good deal. Yonder Alonso, this isnt.

I think it obviously has a better shot to stabilize some things. However, it does essentially pull the cord on a few players, some who had a chance (delmonico, engel), some who didn't (cordell). Gun to head, I'd still have rolled with Leury and then gave one last shot to Cordell/Engel. But obviously we did not have anyone compelling knocking on door, and if someone (hopefully) does, we have no issues.

[GreenSox]

2 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

He's an aging guy who is spending less and less time in CF, with no pop. If it doesn't bring Machado, it's a ridiculous signing. 

Amen

[Bob Sacamano]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

I think it obviously has a better shot to stabilize some things. However, it does essentially pull the cord on a few players, some who had a chance (delmonico, engel), some who didn't (cordell). Gun to head, I'd still have rolled with Leury and then gave one last shot to Cordell/Engel. But obviously we did not have anyone compelling knocking on door, and if someone (hopefully) does, we have no issues.

Cordell can still try to win a spot on the roster as a platoon RF with Palka as well. There's still a final bench spot or two to be sorted out in Spring.

Personally, I think they eventually start dealing off those fringe guys for PTBNL or cash to rebuilding teams who need the roster filler and where they can get at bats (example: Delmonico back to the team that drafted him, the Orioles).

Edited January 8, 2019 by soxfan2014

[bmags]

Just now, soxfan2014 said:

Cordell can still try to win a spot on the roster as a platoon RF with Palka as well. There's still a final bench spot or two to be sorted out in Spring.

Sure, but it would have been much better for his profile if he showed he was a cf. His offense doesn't scream that he can make a corner of role from it.

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, Buehrle>Wood said:

So is anyone with me that this is a good signing in a vacuum outside of any Machado implications? It addresses multiple needs at a very cheap price. Good deal. Yonder Alonso, this isnt.

It probably makes this team a little better and does so without blocking anyone major, but given the choice I'd probably rather have thrown Engel out there for one more season just in case. Engel suddenly learning how to hit isn't likely, but Jay suddenly turning into a guy we could trade for anything of value isn't likely either, and there's 0 chance of Jay being on the next good White Sox team. Outside the notable implication of Machado, It's sorta "feel good" spending, make the defense a little worse, make the offense a little better, give your team some more veteran guys to feel good about. It's hard to be mad about, but that's only because it's hard to believe Engel would take a major step forward, but it's not hard to see Jay taking a minor step backwards and being a downgrade from Engel. 

[Bigsoxhurt35]

I just can’t fathom signing Jay and trading for Alonso and not landing Machado. I really like our chances 

[Bob Sacamano]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

It probably makes this team a little better and does so without blocking anyone major, but given the choice I'd probably rather have thrown Engel out there for one more season just in case. Engel suddenly learning how to hit isn't likely, but Jay suddenly turning into a guy we could trade for anything of value isn't likely either, and there's 0 chance of Jay being on the next good White Sox team. Outside the notable implication of Machado, It's sorta "feel good" spending, make the defense a little worse, make the offense a little better, give your team some more veteran guys to feel good about. It's hard to be mad about, but that's only because it's hard to believe Engel would take a major step forward, but it's not hard to see Jay taking a minor step backwards and being a downgrade from Engel. 

For the hell of it, I just checked to see what the Royals got for him last year since I was curious. 

Elvis Luciano (looks to be a lottery ticket international signing, only 18): https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=lucian000elv

Gabe Speier (decent minor league reliever, only 23 so I would think he could see some MLB innings this year since the Royals are rebuilding): https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=speier000gab

Edited January 8, 2019 by soxfan2014

[Balta1701]

5 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

I just checked to see what the Royals got for him last year since I was curious. 

Elvis Luciano (looks to be a lottery ticket international signing, only 18): https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=lucian000elv

Gabe Speier (decent minor league reliever, only 23): https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=speier000gab

Worth noting that the Royals were so thrilled about Luciano that they allowed him to be picked by the Blue Jays in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft last month.

[he gone.]

Good lord some of you need to start your 2019 a bit happier.

My points:

1- Look to the future. Look to 2021 or 2022 when the Sox are hopefully in the ALCS. Adam Engel won't be on that team. Palka 98% sure won't be on that team. Nicky Delmonico won't be on that team (maybe even this one), Leury Garcia, Cordell, Tilson .... none of those guys will be on the team or even really have more than a 1-2% chance of being on that team. Leury is your best shot, but there will be a cheaper, younger option who can fulfill his role. So all of those who are making the point that a 33 year old is stealing somebody's time needs to can it. 2018 was their opportunity to make noise. We gave these young guys a whole year at the MLB level.. a shot that they'd only get with a 60 win team. We owe these AAA guys nothing. Look at the Astros.. outside Abreu you'd be hard pressed to say any other guy would even be rosterable on that team. Palka probably could've been a DH for them ala Gattis.... maybe. 

2- Jon Jay is 33 and still in the MLB. a lot of you are making his age out to be a bad thing. Again, at age 33 every single one of the guys mentioned above will be packing groceries at a supermarket.. hes still receiving contracts because he does bring something to the table. I think it was Garfein that said he was a gold glove candidate in RF for the diamondbacks? He still can play a decent CF. Sounds like a poor mans Adam Eaton to me.

3- As ive seen mentioned a few times, his OBP is a hell of a lot better than our team. All we do is strikeout and hit homers. It will be nice to have a guy who can set the table and get on base. I see him actually as our leadoff guy. A career OBP of .352 and strikes out less than 100 times a year. yes please.

4- The Machado angle. We're trying to entice a guy to come over for 7-10 years... year 1-2 were going to be bad regardless, so if you can sell him on coming by this method you do it. You're not blocking anybody. You're only giving 1-2 years to these guys.. and also he's a good vet. Some of the board is advocating 7/300mm+ for Machado... 10/350mm... crazy numbers, but you're getting hung up on 4mm over ONE FREAKING YEAR???!

5- Whether you believe it or not, this team, if it can sign Machado is positioning itself for a 2017 Twins like opportunity. If Eloy does as expected, if Moncada takes a few steps forward? Add in Machado and maybe a guy like Ervin Santana? All of a sudden I think you maybe are talking a 80-87 win team. That's all we can really ask for over the next two years anyways... a Band-Aid team on 1-2 year deals that hopefully you can have a chance with if all goes right. The real fun begins in 2021 anyways.

[Bob Sacamano]

9 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Worth noting that the Royals were so thrilled about Luciano that they allowed him to be picked by the Blue Jays in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft last month.

Oh I didn't even see that.

Edit: actually, it says he was taken in the MLB portion of the draft. I would have thought he wouldn't have qualified for either yet. He seems to have a decent arm though so weird. 70 ks in 67 innings, only 23 walks at the age of 18.

Edited January 8, 2019 by soxfan2014

[Balta1701]

5 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said:

is 33 and still in the MLB. a lot of you are making his age out to be a bad thing. Again, at age 33 every single one of the guys mentioned above will be packing groceries at a supermarket.. hes still receiving contracts because he does bring something to the table. I think it was Garfein that said he was a gold glove candidate in RF for the diamondbacks? He still can play a decent CF. Sounds like a poor mans Adam Eaton to me.

If someone said that it makes no sense. He played 1/2 a season for the DBacks and only Rafael Palmeiro is good enough to win a gold glove like that. He also spent only about 40% of last season in RF, and only Torii Hunter can win a gold glove like that. He had positive UZR in RF and CF last year, negative in CF in 2016 and 2017, negative in RF in 2017, but not hugely either way. He's an ok defender out there who can be put in all 3 spots and a substantial defensive downgrade in CF. 

[bmags]

14 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

It probably makes this team a little better and does so without blocking anyone major, but given the choice I'd probably rather have thrown Engel out there for one more season just in case. Engel suddenly learning how to hit isn't likely, but Jay suddenly turning into a guy we could trade for anything of value isn't likely either, and there's 0 chance of Jay being on the next good White Sox team. Outside the notable implication of Machado, It's sorta "feel good" spending, make the defense a little worse, make the offense a little better, give your team some more veteran guys to feel good about. It's hard to be mad about, but that's only because it's hard to believe Engel would take a major step forward, but it's not hard to see Jay taking a minor step backwards and being a downgrade from Engel. 

I am open to certain developmental benefits to this that are more in the abstract/theoretical vein:

- I think there can be a blackhole issue when so much of your roster is all struggling with the same things (walks with pitching/lack of walks and high ks on hitting). When everyone is struggling with it, perhaps it makes it harder either for coaches to help turn it around for everyone and makes players less pressed to improve it when all of your neighbors suck too.

- I do think the sox are starting to narrow down around their core and may think buoying that talent (anderson/moncada/eloy) with well-liked vets can help them in the mental aspects of the game, and have started to finalize their opinions on the wave of older, AAA pick-offs they've acquired and moved on.

Can this be proven? No, it's more feely stuff, but they did have a bad year in development last year, and I suppose it's possible this is an added track to help.

[Balta1701]

14 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said:

5- Whether you believe it or not, this team, if it can sign Machado is positioning itself for a 2017 Twins like opportunity. If Eloy does as expected, if Moncada takes a few steps forward? Add in Machado and maybe a guy like Ervin Santana? All of a sudden I think you maybe are talking a 80-87 win team. That's all we can really ask for over the next two years anyways... a Band-Aid team on 1-2 year deals that hopefully you can have a chance with if all goes right. The real fun begins in 2021 anyways.

I think if you took the "Here's an outside path to 82 wins next season"  threads from last month and told them that we've added $40 million to our payroll by adding Colome, Herrera, Jay, Nova, Alonso, and that catcher who isn't even worth remembering, while Subtracting Narvaez and Davidson, the people who thought we had an outside shot to compete in 2019 would spit on you. Right now, I think we've taken a 62 win team and left it in the low 60's. At least we still get to add Eloy in, that'll be a legit boost if he can stay healthy.

[bmags]

Also possible sox were concerned with losing Avi and Eloy coming up that all of our arms in the outfield would be negative and cause additional stress on the pitching.

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

I am open to certain developmental benefits to this that are more in the abstract/theoretical vein:

- I think there can be a blackhole issue when so much of your roster is all struggling with the same things (walks with pitching/lack of walks and high ks on hitting). When everyone is struggling with it, perhaps it makes it harder either for coaches to help turn it around for everyone and makes players less pressed to improve it when all of your neighbors suck too.

- I do think the sox are starting to narrow down around their core and may think buoying that talent (anderson/moncada/eloy) with well-liked vets can help them in the mental aspects of the game, and have started to finalize their opinions on the wave of older, AAA pick-offs they've acquired and moved on.

Can this be proven? No, it's more feely stuff, but they did have a bad year in development last year, and I suppose it's possible this is an added track to help.

I do like how I called it "Feel good" spending and you described this a "Feely" stuff

[Princess Dye]

Jon Jay wearing a paper bag over his head is a better hitter than Engel