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25 minutes ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

I think your right. Wonder if it could be a 3-way with the Marlins with Realmuto going to LA?

I think you could be onto something here.  The question quickly becomes what is our role in such a trade?  It would suggest we have something to offer Miami that the Dodgers can not.  Either that’s prospects or some sort of financial flexibility.  That being said, I’m struggling to understand how us giving up any legit prospects for Joc fits Hahn’s “long-term” narrative all offseason, short of him agreeing to an extension.

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6 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I think you could be onto something here.  The question quickly becomes what is our role in such a trade?  It would suggest we have something to offer Miami that the Dodgers can not.  Either that’s prospects or some sort of financial flexibility.  That being said, I’m struggling to understand how us giving up any legit prospects for Joc fits Hahn’s “long-term” narrative all offseason, short of him agreeing to an extension.

Maybe our trash is the Marlin's treasure? Sox would provide the salary relief of Pederson so the Marlins don't have too. Both Pederson and Realmuto make about the same heading into 2019. All the fringe guys on the Sox are instant starters on the Marlins. Maybe LA doesn't have to give up as much, plus the Sox are in a small roster crunch if/when Manny signs. Not that I think these guys should be moved, but I'm referring players like Sanchez, Rondon, Engel, Palka, Delmonico, Cordell, etc (+ something of legitimate value from LA). Maybe the Marlins like Fulmer and Bummer, who were originally mentioned in the rumor? Just spit-ballin' but the salaries work out pretty well, just would depend on what goes to the Marlins.

Edited by CWSpalehoseCWS

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34 minutes ago, Stealth G.O.A.T. said:

What is Engel's wrc+? 

Listen I get your point offense is exciting runs matter and all that . Don't you think that if we add Machado, Eloy is good and Abreu bouncing back to his normal self our offense will be much improved. Maybe Moncada also takes a leap forward . I think that is plenty of offense, Palka if he's around and Alonso also are decent bats.

Our fundamental difference is apparently I care about pitching and defense where you care about offense. Guess we will have to agree to disagree here because you responded so fast there's no way you read about Catch Probability. Apparently all the stats I provided nor having the slowest OF in the majors can't convince many people that our defense around our young pitchers is worth  caring about.

Edited by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

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1 hour ago, Jake said:

About Sprint Speed metrics:

I think this method is basically fine but I think it will give you a number that is too low for players who are nursing injuries or don't regularly hustle. I don't know if that applies to Joc or not. Worth noting that Statcast's outfield defense metric (which considers only the player's ability to catch balls, not their arm) had Joc doing quite poorly this past year and 2017 but was a touch above average in 2016 (when he was still in CF if I recall correctly).

 

 

Fun fact: Yoan had a 98 wRC+ against lefties in the second half, not far off from his performance against righties.

It removes the lower 1/3 range of sprint results to eliminate “non-hustle” plays.

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3 minutes ago, bmags said:

It removes the lower 1/3 range of sprint results to eliminate “non-hustle” plays.

Yep they only use it in max effort plays and eliminating the bottom 3rd makes sure of that.

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6 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Listen I get your point offense is exciting runs matter and all that . Don't you think that if we add Machado, Eloy is good and Abreu bouncing back to his normal self our offense will be much improved. Maybe Moncada also takes a leap forward . I think that is plenty of offense, Palka if he's around and Alonso also are decent bats.

Our fundamental difference is apparently I care about pitching and defense where you care about offense. Guess we will have to agree to disagree here because you responded so fast there's no way you read about Catch Probability. Apparently all the stats I provided nor having the slowest OF in the majors can't convince many people that our defense around our young pitchers is worth a damn.

I did read what you posted on Catch Probability. It's all very interesting and valid. It's just not all I look at where players are concerned.

I care about it all. I look at players in their entirety. In a perfect world, you have great offensive players who are great defenders. We can agree on that..... Where Joc and Engel are concerned, as a whole, Pederson is by far the superior player overall. Engel's defense does not even come close to making up for his offensive shortcomings regardless of what other players on the roster are doing. Joc's offense makes up for any defensive shortcomings you've laid out today. The proof is in the data supplied, i.e. fWAR. 

The bottom line, at the end of the day, Engel's shortcomings on offense are costing a team more wins than Pederson's defense. Wins are what matter in my view.

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1 minute ago, Stealth G.O.A.T. said:

I did read what you posted on Catch Probability. It's all very interesting and valid. It's just not all I look at where players are concerned.

I care about it all. I look at players in their entirety. In a perfect world, you have great offensive players who are great defenders. We can agree on that..... Where Joc and Engel are concerned, as a whole, Pederson is by far the superior player overall. Engel's defense does not even come close to making up for his offensive shortcomings regardless of what other players on the roster are doing. Joc's offense makes up for any defensive shortcomings you've laid out today. The proof is in the data supplied, i.e. fWAR. 

The bottom line, at the end of the day, Engel's shortcomings on offense are costing a team more wins than Pederson's defense. Wins are what matter in my view.

What matters for me is not wins in the year 2017, 2018, or 2019. What matters for me is wins in the year 2021 or 2022 and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. 

So, first and foremost I still don't want to give up a lot as those resources are far more valuable in 2021 than they are now. But here's a question I don't know the answer to.

What hurts a young pitching staff more, a weak offense or a weak defense? One of our priorities right now is developing several young pitchers. That will have far more impact than the difference between 67 and 69 wins next year. What is best for them, having a lead more often, or having someone to bail them out if a ball is hit into the gaps? 

I'm not sure, but I think that's the more important question to answer. 

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4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

What matters for me is not wins in the year 2017, 2018, or 2019. What matters for me is wins in the year 2021 or 2022 and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. 

So, first and foremost I still don't want to give up a lot as those resources are far more valuable in 2021 than they are now. But here's a question I don't know the answer to.

What hurts a young pitching staff more, a weak offense or a weak defense? One of our priorities right now is developing several young pitchers. That will have far more impact than the difference between 67 and 69 wins next year. What is best for them, having a lead more often, or having someone to bail them out if a ball is hit into the gaps? 

I'm not sure, but I think that's the more important question to answer. 

Nice post. Well said. For me, I think the key is finding the best balance. I personally think the Sox are trying to push to position themselves to, if things go right, win now given where the division sits at the moment.

That aside, a balance of what you've outlined is important. For me, I think a young pitching staff pitching with a lead is a much better situation on top of providing the young staff with a solid bullpen. But I am not discounting the importance of defense and I'm definitely not suggesting that I'd be ok with the Sox trotting  out a horrible defensive team either. I just personally believe Joc is a far better player and a more balanced player offensively and defensively together. 

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19 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

What matters for me is not wins in the year 2017, 2018, or 2019. What matters for me is wins in the year 2021 or 2022 and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. 

So, first and foremost I still don't want to give up a lot as those resources are far more valuable in 2021 than they are now. But here's a question I don't know the answer to.

What hurts a young pitching staff more, a weak offense or a weak defense? One of our priorities right now is developing several young pitchers. That will have far more impact than the difference between 67 and 69 wins next year. What is best for them, having a lead more often, or having someone to bail them out if a ball is hit into the gaps? 

I'm not sure, but I think that's the more important question to answer. 

We didn’t solve this dilemma with Mackowiak and Anderson in 2006...Ozzie attempted to bail out a struggling offense in the second half, to the obvious detriment of outfield defense.

Of course, the fWAR differences were not as great for those two as these guys in 2019.

Another way of looking at is how much better their pitching stats will be (focus on more K’s?) when they’ve learned to pitch with a fear of allowing fly balls...and then in 2021 they’ll have an above average defender out there to rely upon. Really good pitchers always figure out a way to make adjustments if they actually belong in the big leagues, right?

And Adam Engel just doesn’t seem like an everyday starter on a team with 75+ wins.

Plus, they can always sub Engel in as a defensive replacement when they are ahead late.  Plus, in those 40% of blowout loss situations, his D wasn’t going to matter one iota.

Edited by caulfield12
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12 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

What matters for me is not wins in the year 2017, 2018, or 2019. What matters for me is wins in the year 2021 or 2022 and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. 

So, first and foremost I still don't want to give up a lot as those resources are far more valuable in 2021 than they are now. But here's a question I don't know the answer to.

What hurts a young pitching staff more, a weak offense or a weak defense? One of our priorities right now is developing several young pitchers. That will have far more impact than the difference between 67 and 69 wins next year. What is best for them, having a lead more often, or having someone to bail them out if a ball is hit into the gaps? 

I'm not sure, but I think that's the more important question to answer. 

If that's what matters then having Pederson makes no difference because odds are he won't be here in 2021. So that's one of the many points I've been trying to make.

Saving runs IMHO is worth more to a young pitcher and can be the difference between a pitching thinking he let his team down or thinking he kept his team in the game. It's extremely demoralizing seeing a pitcher give up 3 runs in a bases loaded 2 out jam when an OF doesn't make a catch a much better OF would have. With sloths in the OF we might be seeing a lot of that so it just isn't on Engel as much as it is on the OF as a whole. It might be the difference between a ERA of 4 which is considered decent now in the AL and a 5.00 which we consider bad. If we have to trot out 2 sloths then the gazelle becomes that much more important.

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If they acquired Pederson, I would assume that he would play a corner OF and Jay would be in CF. After seeing the really poor defensive metrics on Joc, I'm wondering if Palka might end up being just as good as he is. Palka has lost 15 pounds, has a good arm, and runs pretty well. I assume he now runs even better than last year, now that he is lighter. He has been working hard on his defense, and he might surprise us. 

In any case, Engel would be a good late inning defensive replacement. He could take over in CF, and Jay could move to the corner, to replace Palka. 

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Here's the thing about defense: the White Sox don't care.

They've shown this with their player personnel decisions, with free agent acquisitions, and, well, with how prospects arrive when they first get to Chicago. The White Sox simply do not prioritize defense in their decisions.

This is not entirely indefensible (heh) as one of the most valid criticisms, to my mind, of the rise of sabermetrics is an overemphasis on poorly defined and unreliable defensive metrics, but lets not pretend that Pederson's defense is going to stop the Sox from trading for him or from playing him in CF as much as possible.

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10 minutes ago, Lillian said:

If they acquired Pederson, I would assume that he would play a corner OF and Jay would be in CF. After seeing the really poor defensive metrics on Joc, I'm wondering if Palka might end up being just as good as he is. Palka has lost 15 pounds, has a good arm, and runs pretty well. I assume he now runs even better than last year, now that he is lighter. He has been working hard on his defense, and he might surprise us. 

In any case, Engel would be a good late inning defensive replacement. He could take over in CF, and Jay could move to the corner, to replace Palka. 

I wouldn’t talk myself into this. For as “bad” as Pederson is defensively (he isn’t), an improved Daniel Palka still doesn’t even belong in the same discussion as Joc defensively. 

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9 minutes ago, Lillian said:

If they acquired Pederson, I would assume that he would play a corner OF and Jay would be in CF. After seeing the really poor defensive metrics on Joc, I'm wondering if Palka might end up being just as good as he is. Palka has lost 15 pounds, has a good arm, and runs pretty well. I assume he now runs even better than last year, now that he is lighter. He has been working hard on his defense, and he might surprise us. 

In any case, Engel would be a good late inning defensive replacement. He could take over in CF, and Jay could move to the corner, to replace Palka. 

It might end of that way anyhow if we don't get Pederson. I'm still worried we don't get Machado . So if Machado isn't here why pursue Pederson ?

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13 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

I wouldn’t talk myself into this. For as “bad” as Pederson is defensively (he isn’t), an improved Daniel Palka still doesn’t even belong in the same discussion as Joc defensively. 

He is. Catch Probability ranked him 75th out of 87 OF's in a year where he played mostly LF. Now imagine him in CF all the time. If by not bad you mean he can catch routine flys balls you're right he isn't bad at that. Anything more challenging he's not going to make the catch.

Funny how those who might think he is a bad OF or think Palka could be just as good have to talk themselves into it  while those who think he isn't bad  haven't talked themselves into it because they so badly don't want to see Engel out there again or are willing to sacrifice defense for the long ball.

Edited by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

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First time poster, long time lurker.

Some White Sox fans obsessions with bad baseball players has always baffled me. Comparing Daniel Palka to Joc Pederson is just laughably absurd. Palka is 27 years old and Pederson is 26. Despite Palka posting a +107 wRC last year, he was a .7 WAR player in nearly 500 at bats. He doesn't walk, he strikes out a ton, and he might be the worst defensive player in baseball. He graded out as a -12.1 last year despite playing the easiest position on the baseball diamond and playing a position that is cluttered with horrible fielders. 

Joc on the other hand, is one year younger and has already accumulated 10.1 fWAR, with two seasons over 3.1 and one at 2.7. He's an above average MLB player. Joc didn't grade out great in the outfield last year, but in his career he's a career average CF'er - which is much harder to be than an average left fielder. ANYONE who thinks Daniel Palka can even sniff Pedersons jock as a defensive player is absolutely kidding themselves. Pederson's wRC+ last year was 126!, and in his one down year he was a league average hitter with an wRC+ of 100. 

I get it guys, you had fun watching Palka on a very bad baseball team. He supplied you with some moments of joy in a season that had very few, and he seems like a fun good guy... but he SUCKS at baseball. He does not belong on any even mediocre baseball team. Joc, on the other hand, is an impact player on a Good baseball team. Even comparing the two players is absolutely laughable.

Daniel Palka does not belong in a MLB uniform. He has some power and can hit the ball really hard, but overall he's a bad baseball player. He can't play the field, he can't throw, he's a poor baserunner and his bat ceiling is a slightly above average hitter? No thanks.

Also, as a CF'er for 18 years of my life, people citing sprint speed is absurd. Aaron Rowand wasn't winning any sprint speed contests but he was a hell of an instinctual defender. I'm not comparing Pederson to Roward, but his sprint speed means very little. You're breaking down already unreliable defensive metrics even further - using catch probability on a year to year basis is a horrible way to analyze a player given the micro-nature that is the sample size.

Long story short, Daniel Palka is awful at baseball and Joc Pederson is not. 

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5 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

First time poster, long time lurker.

Some White Sox fans obsessions with bad baseball players has always baffled me. Comparing Daniel Palka to Joc Pederson is just laughably absurd. Palka is 27 years old and Pederson is 26. Despite Palka posting a +107 wRC last year, he was a .7 WAR player in nearly 500 at bats. He doesn't walk, he strikes out a ton, and he might be the worst defensive player in baseball. He graded out as a -12.1 last year despite playing the easiest position on the baseball diamond and playing a position that is cluttered with horrible fielders. 

Joc on the other hand, is one year younger and has already accumulated 10.1 fWAR, with two seasons over 3.1 and one at 2.7. He's an above average MLB player. Joc didn't grade out great in the outfield last year, but in his career he's a career average CF'er - which is much harder to be than an average left fielder. ANYONE who thinks Daniel Palka can even sniff Pedersons jock as a defensive player is absolutely kidding themselves. Pederson's wRC+ last year was 126!, and in his one down year he was a league average hitter with an wRC+ of 100. 

I get it guys, you had fun watching Palka on a very bad baseball team. He supplied you with some moments of joy in a season that had very few, and he seems like a fun good guy... but he SUCKS at baseball. He does not belong on any even mediocre baseball team. Joc, on the other hand, is an impact player on a Good baseball team. Even comparing the two players is absolutely laughable.

Daniel Palka does not belong in a MLB uniform. He has some power and can hit the ball really hard, but overall he's a bad baseball player. He can't play the field, he can't throw, he's a poor baserunner and his bat ceiling is a slightly above average hitter? No thanks.

Also, as a CF'er for 18 years of my life, people citing sprint speed is absurd. Aaron Rowand wasn't winning any sprint speed contests but he was a hell of an instinctual defender. I'm not comparing Pederson to Roward, but his sprint speed means very little. You're breaking down already unreliable defensive metrics even further - using catch probability on a year to year basis is a horrible way to analyze a player given the micro-nature that is the sample size.

Long story short, Daniel Palka is awful at baseball and Joc Pederson is not. 

Post more, please!

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Just now, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

He is. Catch Probability ranked him 75th out of 87 OF's in a year where he played mostly LF. Now imagine him in CF all the time. If by not bad you mean he can catch routine flys balls you're right he isn't bad at that. Anything more challenging he's not going to make the catch.

I think you're getting too hung up on one statistic, though (with catch probability and outs above average essentially being the same stat). I'm not big on publicly available defensive metrics in the first place because there are so many extenuating factors that go into defense. 

For starters, Fangraphs isn't as down on Pederson defensively as Statcast seems to be. Perhaps he isn't making tough catches because he has the benefit of playing next to guys like Cody Bellinger, who Statcast had as a 6 outs above average outfielder. 

At the end of the day, I understand wanting to help our young pitching staff by minimizing mistakes in the outfield, but at some point, contributing to scoring runs also helps the young pitching staff, and Pederson is worlds ahead of Engel in that category. The only defensive stats that I really put a lot of weight in are framing stats for catchers and range stats for middle infielders, I simply don't trust the algorithms behind any others. Outs above average and catch probability are interesting new concepts but could also be better served by more time and data points to work with. 

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7 minutes ago, bschmaranz said:

Post more, please!

We've all had our not normal obsessions with bad baseball players. 

I used to love Willie Harris. Willie accumulated 3.6 fWAR over the course of 1000+ games. That's terrible. Willie was fun, and seemed like a great guy; scoring the run in the World Series helped too, but I loved Willie before that. I was a kid who loved to watch him run and play defense, but Willie was bad. I understand how fans become infatuated with a guys personality or his vibe - it makes sense! Pablo Ozuna was another guy I loved. I have to be the only guy alive with a Pablo jersey. But when talking about adding a real above average MLB player, it's just plan silly to even bring up the concept of blocking a bum like Palka. It's not as if Palka is some young, break out, prospect who found something. He's not Josh Donaldson or JD Martinez making dramatic swing changes. He's still the same guy he was in the minors; bad strike zone command, big swing, tons of power, and a really poor hit tool. Nothing changed. There's no reason to be excited for Daniel Palka; if anything, for me, Palka reminds me of an era of White Sox baseball I'd sooner like to forget. 

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run
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1 hour ago, bmags said:

It removes the lower 1/3 range of sprint results to eliminate “non-hustle” plays.

I'm aware. My point is that there are going to be some guys who are not going hard on a larger proportion of their trips on the bases (see the drop in Yoan's speed last year as he nursed leg injuries). In those cases, the sprint speed metric won't be as informative as to how fast the guy could be when he's going all out.

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The White Sox have prioritized defense, though...with the Madrigal pick.  They could have taken Bohm and "solved" their generational-long 3B issue, right?   (Well, we can argue about Burger, but that's another story.)

At any rate, without Machado, then trading for Pederson likely makes no sense.

In that situation, you can play guys like Yolmer, Leury, Engel and Palka to your heart's content as we finish with 65-69 wins.

 

If they DO sign Machado eventually...especially with a 3-4 year opt-out, then they suddenly have to do everything to maximize their window with him, within reason, of course.

That means Adam Jones or Carlos Gonzalez added to a corner OR trading for someone like Pederson to pair with Jon Jay in the outfield.

Another veteran starting pitcher (preferably LHP) to round out the rotation (if it's not Hill).

Shocking the world and also signing Kimbrel for 1-2 years (this one, far and away, is the most unlikely).

 

 

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3 minutes ago, bschmaranz said:

Post more, please!

 

17 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

First time poster, long time lurker.

Some White Sox fans obsessions with bad baseball players has always baffled me. Comparing Daniel Palka to Joc Pederson is just laughably absurd. Palka is 27 years old and Pederson is 26. Despite Palka posting a +107 wRC last year, he was a .7 WAR player in nearly 500 at bats. He doesn't walk, he strikes out a ton, and he might be the worst defensive player in baseball. He graded out as a -12.1 last year despite playing the easiest position on the baseball diamond and playing a position that is cluttered with horrible fielders. 

Joc on the other hand, is one year younger and has already accumulated 10.1 fWAR, with two seasons over 3.1 and one at 2.7. He's an above average MLB player. Joc didn't grade out great in the outfield last year, but in his career he's a career average CF'er - which is much harder to be than an average left fielder. ANYONE who thinks Daniel Palka can even sniff Pedersons jock as a defensive player is absolutely kidding themselves. Pederson's wRC+ last year was 126!, and in his one down year he was a league average hitter with an wRC+ of 100. 

I get it guys, you had fun watching Palka on a very bad baseball team. He supplied you with some moments of joy in a season that had very few, and he seems like a fun good guy... but he SUCKS at baseball. He does not belong on any even mediocre baseball team. Joc, on the other hand, is an impact player on a Good baseball team. Even comparing the two players is absolutely laughable.

Daniel Palka does not belong in a MLB uniform. He has some power and can hit the ball really hard, but overall he's a bad baseball player. He can't play the field, he can't throw, he's a poor baserunner and his bat ceiling is a slightly above average hitter? No thanks.

Also, as a CF'er for 18 years of my life, people citing sprint speed is absurd. Aaron Rowand wasn't winning any sprint speed contests but he was a hell of an instinctual defender. I'm not comparing Pederson to Roward, but his sprint speed means very little. You're breaking down already unreliable defensive metrics even further - using catch probability on a year to year basis is a horrible way to analyze a player given the micro-nature that is the sample size.

Long story short, Daniel Palka is awful at baseball and Joc Pederson is not. 

Nice post but can you tell me why the Sox need Joc Pederson in 2019 and 2020 ?  And for clarity's sake again no stats on how good Rowand was defensively or really how fast he was. so lets all just assume he was a great fielder and not fast because Aaron Roward was a beloved Sox player and let's appeal to that instead. Aaron Roward who wasn't fast and an instinctual fielder: I suppose you are basing your opinion on the eye test since you shat on Sprint speed, Catch Probability and just about any defensive metric we can find. Haven't seen one person use DRS or anything else to support their "he's good but I can't prove it but I can sure discredit your attempts at proof.

This post was more like was it over when the German's bombed Pearl Harbor post. Appealing to the good old fashioned eye test and the glory of our much beloved ARow when usually all the greatest posters ( myself not included in that} tend to use advanced metrics. ) For every Aarow Roward I can give you 5 guys who had great speed and were much better CF's than him using the eye test too if you want. Catch probability does its best to incorporate those great instincts you talk about but now its no good.

As far as Palka goes you are probably right but you might not be given you talked about how bad he was and not how good he may become due to the weight lose. Yay points for you because you rallied the troops General.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Jake said:

I'm aware. My point is that there are going to be some guys who are not going hard on a larger proportion of their trips on the bases (see the drop in Yoan's speed last year as he nursed leg injuries). In those cases, the sprint speed metric won't be as informative as to how fast the guy could be when he's going all out.

Where does Usain Bolt rate, lol?

He always gets a slow start out of the blocks because he's so long and rangy...but if you measure him (or, let's say, Avi Garcia), he really gets going after about 20-30 meters.  But Avi's athleticism is counterbalanced by bad reads/jumps and routes and the fact so many plays don't require a 30-40 yard flat out sprint, the play's already over (ball over your head, for example) in the first 10-15 yards.

And didn't the White Sox have someone like Saladino a year or two ago ranked as the fastest to 1B...when there were clearly guys like Anderson, Engel and Moncada who were flat out faster going from home to 3rd, 1st to home or 3rd, etc.

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6 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

The White Sox have prioritized defense, though...with the Madrigal pick.  They could have taken Bohm and "solved" their generational-long 3B issue, right?   (Well, we can argue about Burger, but that's another story.)

At any rate, without Machado, then trading for Pederson likely makes no sense.

In that situation, you can play guys like Yolmer, Leury, Engel and Palka to your heart's content as we finish with 65-69 wins.

 

If they DO sign Machado eventually...especially with a 3-4 year opt-out, then they suddenly have to do everything to maximize their window with him, within reason, of course.

That means Adam Jones or Carlos Gonzalez added to a corner OR trading for someone like Pederson to pair with Jon Jay in the outfield.

Another veteran starting pitcher (preferably LHP) to round out the rotation (if it's not Hill).

Shocking the world and also signing Kimbrel for 1-2 years (this one, far and away, is the most unlikely).

 

 

How could we have taken Bohm again?

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1 minute ago, bmags said:

How could we have taken Bohm again?

by trading the #4 pick and Carmelo Anthony for the #3 pick

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