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Joc Pederson: 💤💤​​​​​​​💤​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

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Just now, beckham15 said:

Did you see the 2018 Chicago Whitesox? Can’t get much worse than that.

Engel out there by himself is a better defensive outfield.

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That is why I never even pay attention to WAR or Steamer .Not trying to discount metrics but I never ever even look at that when am looking at a player. Maybe I am in the minority but oh well. And what was Mariano Rivera average War per season? if anybody has that info I would appreciate it. Thanx

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12 minutes ago, FT35 said:

Ha!  True...I have noticed that they always seem to come in low.  How a lineup with Manny, Jimenez and Jay would be calculate lower WAR than a lineup with Davidson, Engle and Delmonico I'll never know.  Those would be the 3 most notable changes. 

The lineup I quoted did not have eloy in the lineup. With eloy its more like 16-17 which is a tick above last year's

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7 minutes ago, SoxSteve said:

That is why I never even pay attention to WAR or Steamer .Not trying to discount metrics but I never ever even look at that when am looking at a player. Maybe I am in the minority but oh well. And what was Mariano Rivera average War per season? if anybody has that info I would appreciate it. Thanx

56.3 career WAR.  19 seasons.  2.96 average per season.

Rivera Stats

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1 hour ago, GREEDY said:

Not sure if this pertains to Joc or even to catcher framing:

The Dodgers had multiple high speed cameras on every practice pitching mound at Camelback.

The Sox had zero.  

 

That's just remarkable. 
This is the kind of stuff that really explains the current situation.  Lack of investment (money/time/coaching talent) in the fundamentals.

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2 hours ago, raBBit said:

If you argue about the White Sox chances to compete in the coming years without mention of the fact that they are in the worst division in baseball for the foreseeable future you don't have a good argument. 

No matter how you slice  2019 there is no chance . You better somehow get 2 starting pitchers who are head and shoulders above anything we have now for that.

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3 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Jeeze, I'd like to be the GM of a team that says go ahead and take 5 years to rebuild - even though the 4 main assets you traded for were less than 2 years from big league ready. (Cease, Kopech, Moncada and Eloy). You don't trade for guys that are ready to play AA and AAA baseball, and then waste three years of their control on bad baseball teams. That's not how rebuilds work. Young guys should be coming up to compliment the pieces they add this year and next. 

Jeez I'd like to win the World Series again and if it takes 5 or 6 years from the start of the rebuild so be it .You can cry about how it took so long watching the parade.

Edited by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

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8 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

No matter how you slice  2019 there is no chance . You better somehow get 2 starting pitchers who are head and shoulders above anything we have now for that.

I disagree.  If they add Machado, Pederson, and a decent SP, they have a shot in this division.  It isn't any good.

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3 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I'm not sure why - we are overvaluing middling prospects at this point. ]

The value of Rutherford if he's a 50FV prospect is roughly $17 million - you could argue that Rutherford is a 45FV which would bring him all the way down to about 8 million in value. Let's say, for the sake of this, that Rutherford is trending upwards though and is worth about $17 million.

Flores isn't worth much - maybe $3 millionish. So let's say our total value moved is about 20 million. Obviously, future value is worth more to this team than present, but it's not by as much as you'd think given that the White Sox want to expedite the window and have this year be a year of potential surprise with next year being a year of definite contention (in their eyes), but lets say for the sake that Rutherford's future value increases the value of a win by $3 million per - he's worth roughly 2 wins now (assuming 10 million = 1 WAR but as we know, WAR values aren't exact) so we get Rutherford and Flores up to being worth $26 million.

Pederson would need to accumulate 2.6 WAR in 2 years to equal the net value of our offer. Now volatility of a guy like Rutherford changes things a bit, but at most, it's safe to say that if Pederson is a 2 WAR+ player each of the next two years, that his present day value surpasses any Future Value for Rutherford.

I know people don't want to give up any prospects - the infatuation with all of them is very real - but from a sheer value standpoint that would be a fine swap for the White Sox. Not one I think they're interested in - as I think they'd rather move relievers and more wild card position players than a top 100 prospect, but it certainly would be a defendable trade for the White Sox. 

This is a lot of mathematical jibberish that's basically telling everyone that minor league depth is a bad thing. How can you throw a lot of numbers around about fair value when you don't even understand why the deep system will help not hurt the rebuild,

Edited by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

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12 minutes ago, Nardiwashere said:

I disagree.  If they add Machado, Pederson, and a decent SP, they have a shot in this division.  It isn't any good.

Bullshit. 1st of all we don't have Machado yet or Pederson and all of sudden adding Keuchel to a terrible group of starting pitchers is going to make a team that had 62 wins last year a contender. Ater we get that starting pitcher and Machado and Pederson talk to me in October but chances are getting all 3 is a long shot which makes being a contender in 2019 an even bigger long shot .

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8 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Bullshit. 1st of all we don't have Machado yet or Pederson and all of sudden adding Keuchel to a terrible group of starting pitchers is going to make a team that had 62 wins last year a contender. Ater we get that starting pitcher and Machado and Pederson talk to me in October but chances are getting all 3 is a long shot which makes being a contender in 2019 an even bigger long shot .

I agree with you about their chances if they don't land Manny, as well as other pieces, i.e. OF and starting pitching.

There plan is to land Manny and address the other areas of need. They feel good about where they're at where addressing those areas of need are concerned.

Edited by Stealth G.O.A.T.

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2 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Bullshit. 1st of all we don't have Machado yet or Pederson and all of sudden adding Keuchel to a terrible group of starting pitchers is going to make a team that had 62 wins last year a contender. Ater we get that starting pitcher and Machado and Pederson talk to me in October but chances are getting all 3 is a long shot which makes being a contender in 2019 an even bigger long shot .

I don't understand what you are arguing is bullshit.  It isn't some remote possibility that they will sign Machado and trade for Pederson.  They are one of the teams in on Machado and have been linked to Pederson.  Those two deals plus a deal for a pitcher is reasonable.

An offseason like that would mean huge upgrade at 3B, upgrades at all OF positions, upgraded bullpen, and upgraded rotation.  Add in some reasonable improvement from the young players, it wouldn't be a 62 win team.

The division is bad.  If they are above .500, they will have a chance.  That isn't wishful thinking, its reality.  

I haven't heard anyone say the team is ready to win as is.

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32 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

This is a lot of mathematical jibberish that's basically telling everyone that minor league depth is a bad thing. How can you throw a lot of numbers around about fair value when you don't even understand why the deep system will help not hurt the rebuild,

What? $ value is how trades are evaluated. It's not jibberish it's how modern baseball works. 

I have no idea how you derived "minor league depth is a bad thing" from that point. 

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run

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Not to beat a dead horse, but I did the math based on WaR yesterday and shared:

Manny over Yolmer 5.0 vs 1.4 = +3.6 wins  expected 28 million per salary
Pederson over Engel 3.3 vs .1 = +3.2 wins   expected 5 million per salary 
Keuchel over Giolito 3.1 vs .2 = +2.9 wins    expected 18 million per salary 

Total WaR for additions compared to current roster projections = +9.7 wins  for 51-55 million increase in payroll.

This would put us roughly at 80 win projection for 2019. Add in a few lucky increases to developing talent and we could knock on the 82-83 win total. Not enough to win the division or a wild card, but definitely enough to keep the team interest high, increase attendance and start to build a positive team momentum to carry into 2020.

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1 hour ago, bschmaranz said:

Slowest worst defensive outfield ever.  Literally, ever.

The Sox won a division with an OF of Quentin, Griffey Jr., and Dye. Not exactly speedsters.and befor they pick up Giriffey, Swisher was playing CF.

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I guess Rosenthal did say a Joc trade isn’t close, and the chat on MLbTR made it seem the Sox and LA weren’t a match anyway.

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1 hour ago, whitesoxwinner said:

steamer projects that lineup to be somewhere around 13-14 WAR. That's worse than last year's war from the starting lineup

Both of these statements are wrong.

Last year our position players didn't crack 10 WAR. 

Steamer also currently projects 16 WAR from our position players without Machado. With Machado it'd be ~20. Add in Joc and it's ~22.

Edited by OmarComing25
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1 minute ago, Dick Allen said:

The Sox won a division with an OF of Quentin, Griffey Jr., and Dye. Not exactly speedsters.and befor they pick up Giriffey, Swisher was playing CF.

I'd say it's still a fair amount better than Joc out of position and Palka wearing a glove under any circumstance.

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1 minute ago, Dick Allen said:

I guess Rosenthal did say a Joc trade isn’t close, and the chat on MLbTR made it seem the Sox and LA weren’t a match anyway.

Sorry where was this?

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1 minute ago, Dick Allen said:

I guess Rosenthal did say a Joc trade isn’t close, and the chat on MLbTR made it seem the Sox and LA weren’t a match anyway.

The guys at MLBTR know nothing anyways. They report rumors, that's it. 

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Just now, bschmaranz said:

I'd say it's still a fair amount better than Joc out of position and Palka wearing a glove under any circumstance.

Maybe but Dye was like watching someone run in a pool in 2008.

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2 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

I guess Rosenthal did say a Joc trade isn’t close, and the chat on MLbTR made it seem the Sox and LA weren’t a match anyway.

So back to harper and Machado combo it is 😂

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1 minute ago, SoCalSox said:

The guys at MLBTR know nothing anyways. They report rumors, that's it. 

They know that the Dodgers as currently assembled still need Joc and that most teams in baseball could use him.  So him going to the White Sox with only two years remaining deal does not seem to make a ton of sense.  

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11 minutes ago, EloyJenkins said:

Not to beat a dead horse, but I did the math based on WaR yesterday and shared:

Manny over Yolmer 5.0 vs 1.4 = +3.6 wins  expected 28 million per salary
Pederson over Engel 3.3 vs .1 = +3.2 wins   expected 5 million per salary 
Keuchel over Giolito 3.1 vs .2 = +2.9 wins    expected 18 million per salary 

Total WaR for additions compared to current roster projections = +9.7 wins  for 51-55 million increase in payroll.

This would put us roughly at 80 win projection for 2019. Add in a few lucky increases to developing talent and we could knock on the 82-83 win total. Not enough to win the division or a wild card, but definitely enough to keep the team interest high, increase attendance and start to build a positive team momentum to carry into 2020.

1 WAR does not equal 1 more team win - that's not how WAR works.

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run

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2 minutes ago, GREEDY said:

They know that the Dodgers as currently assembled still need Joc and that most teams in baseball could use him.  So him going to the White Sox with only two years remaining deal does not seem to make a ton of sense.  

Trusted information from board insiders & even Ken Rosenthal says otherwise. 

Sox are in discussions with LAD for Joc. Have been for about a week now. 

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