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PolishPrince34

Keith Law Rankings

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#5 Eloy Jimenez

#20 Michael Kopech

#25 Dylan Cease

#54 Luis Robert

#109 Dane Dunning

#112 Nick Madrigal

Shocked Law didn't include Adolfo. Law loves his tools.

Edited by PolishPrince34

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The variance in Nick madrigal is quite interesting to me. Some have him top 50, some outside the top 100. Not sure where I stand with him yet. Something I read here from somebody smarter than me is to not put much stock into minor league stats immediately after a college draftee's season ended. I'll reserve judgement for next season.

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I think law is quite anal about the prospects he likes and often a bit biased. He doesn't like underpowered guys but if they are toolsy but too raw (like hitters  with shady K/BB numbers or pitchers with stuff who cant locate) he doesn't like them either.

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1 minute ago, dominik-keul@gmx.de said:

I think law is quite anal about the prospects he likes and often a bit biased. He doesn't like underpowered guys but if they are toolsy but too raw (like hitters  with shady K/BB numbers or pitchers with stuff who cant locate) he doesn't like them either.

I wonder if anyone has taken these lists and compared who did the best/worst 5 years later.

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53 minutes ago, dominik-keul@gmx.de said:

I think law is quite anal about the prospects he likes and often a bit biased. He doesn't like underpowered guys but if they are toolsy but too raw (like hitters  with shady K/BB numbers or pitchers with stuff who cant locate) he doesn't like them either.

That makes things interesting though.

I like Law for hitters, don't like him for pitchers at all. I like BA for international guys, but they overrate college pitchers like, insanely. I like fangraphs for both, but mainly because they do the best job at explaining their thought process and aren't too dogmatic. Pipeline seems to have a lot of grade inflation to me and it always feels like they are just following the herd a lot. BP, it's there but I don't thinkt hey have the manpower to scout that the others do.

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Law is usually your best bet if you want to see someone go against the grain.

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What I've learned voting for FutureSox - 1 person voting makes for a worse overall list, but one that can have picks which are far bolder and more intriguing than usual. I generally like the FutureSox consensus more than anyone's - including my own, but for example, Dan was more bullish on Bryce Bush than anyone from the get go and we'll see how that plays out.

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Quote

 

13. Chicago White Sox
2018 rank: 4

Still the most top-heavy system among the top half of organizations, although a couple of years of college-oriented drafts have provided depth in players who should at least be big leaguers, albeit with limited ceilings. The emergence this year of Micker Adolfo, who had the best year of his career before the White Sox shut him down to get his elbow fixed, was the nicest surprise, but the system could still use more starters who project as more than No. 5s. I found it harder to get to 20 names I felt strongly about than I do for most systems above the median.

 

Law has the Sox ranked 13th overall. The lack of depth, as he aptly points out, is a real concern. 

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3 minutes ago, maggsmaggs said:

Law has the Sox ranked 13th overall. The lack of depth, as he aptly points out, is a real concern. 

Quite frankly, the drafting has been atrocious.  With the likely graduations this year, they really need to see growth this year from those that struggled in 2018.

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That rings fairly true. None of the pitching prospects past dunning are remotely interesting based on what they've shown so far. Basically there is Hansen as a wildcard, and then a bunch of pitchers that don't feel like they will grow to be better. That pitcher we traded for Nova is probably more interesting than any of our pitchers in single-a/A+ aside from wherever hansen goes.

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3 minutes ago, bmags said:

That rings fairly true. None of the pitching prospects past dunning are remotely interesting based on what they've shown so far. Basically there is Hansen as a wildcard, and then a bunch of pitchers that don't feel like they will grow to be better. That pitcher we traded for Nova is probably more interesting than any of our pitchers in single-a/A+ aside from wherever hansen goes.

I do think Bernardo Flores is a guy who could just keep producing with his feel for pitching despite a lack of great stuff. But ya, it's bleak in the lower levels.

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1 minute ago, maggsmaggs said:

I do think Bernardo Flores is a guy who could just keep producing with his feel for pitching despite a lack of great stuff. But ya, it's bleak in the lower levels.

I know drafting is a part of it, but this especially is where the lack of production we get from LatAm kills. For as little as we get on the hitting side, pitching has probably been more barren. The pitcher we traded for swisher was the last success I can remember?

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1 hour ago, maggsmaggs said:

Law has the Sox ranked 13th overall. The lack of depth, as he aptly points out, is a real concern. 

I think this ranking is absurd and don’t agree with his assessment with our depth.  There is no doubt in my mind that we have much less depth than the elite farm systems like the Padres & Braves, but I’m not sure I agree that there are that many other systems that are substantially deeper than us.  At least not enough so to outweigh the value of our top 15 guys and move us to a middle of a pack system.

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1 hour ago, fathom said:

Quite frankly, the drafting has been atrocious.  With the likely graduations this year, they really need to see growth this year from those that struggled in 2018.

I’m not sure the overall drafting has been atrocious (there have been some nice finds under Hosterler), but we need to get more out of our day one picks.  So far Nick has selected Collins, Burdi, Hansen, Burger, Sheets, Madrigal, & Walker in the first two rounds.  None of those first five guys are busts yet, but none of them look like sure fire major leaguers either.  I know injuries can be blamed to some extent, but all five of those guys’ stock is down vs last year and that isn’t a good sign.  Also, that Sheets pick is a complete disaster until he shows some real in game power. Not writing him off just yet, but going over-slot for a 1B prospect that doesn’t hit HR’s is questionable across the board.  Also wasn’t a huge fan of the Walker pick, but am willing to give Hostetlet the benefit of the doubt there for now.

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6 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’m not sure the overall drafting has been atrocious (there have been some nice finds under Hosterler), but we need to get more out of our day one picks.  So far Nick has selected Collins, Burdi, Hansen, Burger, Sheets, Madrigal, & Walker in the first two rounds.  None of those first five guys are busts yet, but none of them look like sure fire major leaguers either.  I know injuries can be blamed to some extent, but all five of those guys’ stock is down vs last year and that isn’t a good sign.  Also, that Sheets pick is a complete disaster until he shows some real in game power. Not writing him off just yet, but going over-slot for a 1B prospect that doesn’t hit HR’s is questionable across the board.  Also wasn’t a huge fan of the Walker pick, but am willing to give Hostetlet the benefit of the doubt there for now.

Sheets hit 21 HRs his last year at wake... I am guessing we didn't draft him thinking he wouldn't hit HRs.

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1 hour ago, bmags said:

That rings fairly true. None of the pitching prospects past dunning are remotely interesting based on what they've shown so far. Basically there is Hansen as a wildcard, and then a bunch of pitchers that don't feel like they will grow to be better. That pitcher we traded for Nova is probably more interesting than any of our pitchers in single-a/A+ aside from wherever hansen goes.

I think you’re exaggerating a bit here.  Lambert & Flores are both interesting, especially Jimmy IMO.  Puckett is still technically a thing.  McClure is pretty interesting and was doing very well pre-injury.  Pilkington & Steiver head a wave of interesting college arms we just took as well.  Not great by any means, but these guys are all way better prospects than what we gave up for Nova.

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2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I think you’re exaggerating a bit here.  Lambert & Flores are both interesting, especially Jimmy IMO.  Puckett is still technically a thing.  McClure is pretty interesting and was doing very well pre-injury.  Pilkington & Steiver head a wave of interesting college arms we just took as well.  Not great by any means, but these guys are all way better prospects than what we gave up for Nova.

All of those qualify for what Law identified as maybe a #5 starter. I hope pilkington dominates, but all of these feel like guys that will move up the white sox list due to attrition and not due to climbing into higher performance tiers.

We do have a bunch of players that could feasibly make an mlb roster, but when we were ranked as the top farm system we had a bunch of groups of players that could feasibly become the top pitcher and position player prospects. Now past Robert/Cease there's not a lot of players that fit the bill as a potential big riser. Just bush/sosa level. The lack of investment into young players bites them, but they also haven't developed what they have invested in.

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9 minutes ago, yesterday333 said:

Sheets hit 21 HRs his last year at wake... I am guessing we didn't draft him thinking he wouldn't hit HRs.

Of course, but plenty of guys hit for power in college but not in professional ball.  At the end of day, you don’t take a 1B prospect with a day one pick unless you’re confident in his ability to hit.  Way too early to right Sheets off, but the pick will look like a disaster if the power doesn’t come to fruition.

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18 minutes ago, yesterday333 said:

Sheets hit 21 HRs his last year at wake... I am guessing we didn't draft him thinking he wouldn't hit HRs.

An issue related to this may be the Sox scouting (which always is an issue), that the scouts, cross-checkers and ultimately KW/Hahn missed the signs that his power would not translate. 

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2 hours ago, fathom said:

Quite frankly, the drafting has been atrocious.  With the likely graduations this year, they really need to see growth this year from those that struggled in 2018.

It's far too early to determine that the drafting has been atrocious. I wrote about this last week. Some of the drafts lack upside in nature but they will provide trade pieces and likely big leaguers. They leave something to be desired but it's still too early. A lot hinges on Zack Collins, Zack Burdi, Jake Burger, Gavin Sheets, Luis Gonzalez, Nick Madrigal, Steele Walker though for sure. Your part about growth is accurate though. 

1 hour ago, bmags said:

That rings fairly true. None of the pitching prospects past dunning are remotely interesting based on what they've shown so far. Basically there is Hansen as a wildcard, and then a bunch of pitchers that don't feel like they will grow to be better. That pitcher we traded for Nova is probably more interesting than any of our pitchers in single-a/A+ aside from wherever hansen goes.

I disagree quitea bit here. They need more depth for sure but they have two top of the rotation arms at the top of their system in Cease and Kopech. I think Dunning is a #3 starter barring health. Hansen is a complete wildcard. They have lots of back end types as well but I think Jimmy Lambert, Jonathan Stiever and Konnor Pilkington have much more upside than #5 starter. I think those two guys are pretty good. 

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2 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

It's far too early to determine that the drafting has been atrocious. I wrote about this last week. Some of the drafts lack upside in nature but they will provide trade pieces and likely big leaguers. They leave something to be desired but it's still too early. A lot hinges on Zack Collins, Zack Burdi, Jake Burger, Gavin Sheets, Luis Gonzalez, Nick Madrigal, Steele Walker though for sure. Your part about growth is accurate though. 

I disagree quitea bit here. They need more depth for sure but they have two top of the rotation arms at the top of their system in Cease and Kopech. I think Dunning is a #3 starter barring health. Hansen is a complete wildcard. They have lots of back end types as well but I think Jimmy Lambert, Jonathan Stiever and Konnor Pilkington have much more upside than #5 starter. I think those two guys are pretty good. 

Well that's mostly agreeing. My point was once you got past Dunning there wasn't another arm that you could see big growth from. Apparently that could be Stiever and Pilkington and I hope that is the case.

It's not even that its because I think the rebuild will be doomed, I just want to see the factory pumping more talent so that acquisitions can be easier and the sox don't end up two years in with maxed out payroll and little talent left to trade.

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3 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

It's far too early to determine that the drafting has been atrocious. I wrote about this last week. Some of the drafts lack upside in nature but they will provide trade pieces and likely big leaguers. They leave something to be desired but it's still too early. A lot hinges on Zack Collins, Zack Burdi, Jake Burger, Gavin Sheets, Luis Gonzalez, Nick Madrigal, Steele Walker though for sure. Your part about growth is accurate though. 

I disagree quitea bit here. They need more depth for sure but they have two top of the rotation arms at the top of their system in Cease and Kopech. I think Dunning is a #3 starter barring health. Hansen is a complete wildcard. They have lots of back end types as well but I think Jimmy Lambert, Jonathan Stiever and Konnor Pilkington have much more upside than #5 starter. I think those two guys are pretty good. 

Is he still counting Kopech as part of the system? Having a system with Cease and Eloy ranked that lowly is one thing, but if he's still counting Kopech that's just nonsense. 

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19 minutes ago, maggsmaggs said:

An issue related to this may be the Sox scouting (which always is an issue), that the scouts, cross-checkers and ultimately KW/Hahn missed the signs that his power would not translate. 

One thing that kinda sticks out is in college he hit more home runs than doubles. In W-S last year he had 28 doubles and only 6 home runs, sort of a crude inverse of his junior year at wake with 21 home runs and 10 doubles. 

I could only find that he hit with wooden bats after senior year but without any power, and since the bat changes it's kinda hard to believe it would be this big of a shift but it does make me wonder if suddenly it became gap power.

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1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

Is he still counting Kopech as part of the system? Having a system with Cease and Eloy ranked that lowly is one thing, but if he's still counting Kopech that's just nonsense. 

From technical standpoint, Kopech still has rookie status until he spends a bit longer on the major league roster.  But as of opening day, he is considered a rookie.

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16 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Is he still counting Kopech as part of the system? Having a system with Cease and Eloy ranked that lowly is one thing, but if he's still counting Kopech that's just nonsense. 

He counted Kopech. He has Eloy at either 4 or 5. Cease and Kopech in the 20's and Robert at 50. He had Madrigal and Dunning around #110. He likes Basabe and Micker. He doesn't like anything else though apparently. 

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