FS: Sox draft philosophy on college vs prep and its impact

[Balta1701 949]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

Uh, yeah.

From that article that you are talking about:

”

 Bush was clear that the teams he spoke with were told that his college commitment wouldn't be a sticking point in regards to signing a contract.

"We told every team that I wanted to go straight out of high school. I also wasn't asking for that much money to do so". He also said that he wasn't sure which team would pick him even though multiple area scouts had been in to see him play. In regards to where and by whom he would be drafted, Bryce said, "I didn't really know. Lots of teams showed interest. I actually thought the White Sox showed the least amount of interest at first".”

http://www.chicagonow.com/future-sox/2018/08/prospect-focus-bryce-bush/

Well, I was under the impression that high school guys drafted in the 20s and 30s rarely signed even if you offered them top 10 round money, that these type of signings were a black swan event, but I'll admit I haven't watched other franchises that closely, just the White Sox. So if this is something other franchises have been doing regularly - identifying guys who will sign with those picks - and we haven't been, then I'll concede the point and agree, this is another thing White Sox management should have been doing and it's another failure by them that they haven't been able to do that more regularly. My apologies, I guess even I don't know all of our management failures. 

[bmags 1,156]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

Well, I was under the impression that high school guys drafted in the 20s and 30s rarely signed even if you offered them top 10 round money, that these type of signings were a black swan event, but I'll admit I haven't watched other franchises that closely, just the White Sox. So if this is something other franchises have been doing regularly - identifying guys who will sign with those picks - and we haven't been, then I'll concede the point and agree, this is another thing White Sox management should have been doing and it's another failure by them that they haven't been able to do that more regularly. My apologies, I guess even I don't know all of our management failures. 

I don't think it's anything like this, Bush just happened to be one of many underscouted northern prospects that sometimes slip through the cracks. Had he lived in Florida like Cabera Weaver and Lency Delgado you would have likely seen him drafted in top 11 rounds. Northern prospects have a big question mark, I remember people down on Adell because his like 12 at bats against top competition weren't great...whoops he's likely the best draft pick in the 17 group and showed it immediately.

But Caulfields point was more likely that he'd rather be going toward high school position players, because I'm not sure there is much of a difference in profiles between Delgado, Weaver, Maldanado and Bush except one produced off the bat, but we can see how valuable even one in four is. The 80-90% college picks is hard to justify, especially when we have such a large scouting staff. 

Especially, as people have been saying, these 2nd round college bats. It's a missed opportunity when you can try to nab these very athletic HS who have potential to blossom into elite players vs the second rounders who are often much less athletic and limited, have great bats but may very well be at their ceiling.

[Joshua Strong 63]

I think that the Sox employed a good strategy when they started the rebuild. They had a largely empty farm and targeted high floor guys in the draft as they replenished the system. Now that they have that depth, I think they should definitely start targeting more high ceiling guys in the draft. I understand that those guys carry way more risk but when you hit on a guy, they could be a superstar. 

[Chicago White Sox 1,641]

Like everything in life, our system needs better balance / diversification.  I don’t believe there is one right draft strategy other than the age-old BPA, but I do think our focus on college players in recent years has been a bit troubling.  Right now, our system lacks athleticism outside of a handful of guys and that limits its overall upside.  That will become more apparent when guys like Robert, Basabe, etc reach the majors.

I will give the Sox some credit for the 2018 draft.  They signed five high school positional guys, including two in the top 10 and a well over slot Bush.  While I wish they used their 2nd pick on a high upside H.S. prospect and not another college OF, I can appreciate we added some much needed youth to the system.  It will be interesting to see how these guys shake out, as their success (or failures) could impact our willingness to take premium H.S. players early in the draft in the future.

[bmags 1,156]

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Like everything in life, our system needs better balance / diversification.  I don’t believe there is one right draft strategy other than the age-old BPA, but I do think our focus on college players in recent years has been a bit troubling.  Right now, our system lacks athleticism outside of a handful of guys and that limits its overall upside.  That will become more apparent when guys like Robert, Basabe, etc reach the majors.

I will give the Sox some credit for the 2018 draft.  They signed five high school positional guys, including two in the top 10 and a well over slot Bush.  While I wish they used their 2nd pick on a high upside H.S. prospect and not another college OF, I can appreciate we added some much needed youth to the system.  It will be interesting to see how these guys shake out, as their success (or failures) could impact our willingness to take premium H.S. players early in the draft in the future.

I would hope not, taking HS guys in the 4th and 6th rounds shouldn't expect to pan out talent any more than a college player.

For sox, I'd be fine if they banned high school RHP from drafting in the top 20 of the first round. But if they are scarred from 2012, they should look a few picks past where they drafted hawkins to find Corey Seager, then go down to first overall to see Carlos Correa, the other best player drafted that year. The two best big leaguers? High School Shortstops.

More of them needed to be added to system. 

[Y2Jimmy0 243]

On 2/1/2019 at 9:43 AM, bmags said:

I would hope not, taking HS guys in the 4th and 6th rounds shouldn't expect to pan out talent any more than a college player.

For sox, I'd be fine if they banned high school RHP from drafting in the top 20 of the first round. But if they are scarred from 2012, they should look a few picks past where they drafted hawkins to find Corey Seager, then go down to first overall to see Carlos Correa, the other best player drafted that year. The two best big leaguers? High School Shortstops.

More of them needed to be added to system. 

100%.I think Rutschman is a no brainer if he's available next this June and it's too early to predict for sure. If Witt and Adley are gone though, I want CJ Abrams. That's the type of guy that you need to add with top 5 picks. Reminds me of Royce Lewis. I'm pretty confident that Andrew Vaughn will hit and I wouldn't be surprised if he's ultimately the pick but I'd go Abrams. 

[dominik-keul@gmx.de 29]

I wouldn't even be against first round hs pitchers but obviously not top5-10"overall.

Hs pitchers bust often but they also a legitimate shot to get an ace past the first round while even the raw super talented hs bats go in mid to late first with the rare mature hs hitter with fully gown power (like harper who hit moonshots at at 15 yo go higher).

At the college level you can find aces but after the first 1-2 college pitchers the talent dries up.

 

Hitting is not as extreme but after pick 8 or so upside gets limited. 

 

Imo late first to third round can be a good time to pitch risky hs pitchers.

Edited February 5 by dominik-keul@gmx.de

[ChiSoxJon 20]

19 minutes ago, dominik-keul@gmx.de said:

I wouldn't even be against first round hs pitchers but obviously not top5-10"overall.

Hs pitchers bust often but they also a legitimate shot to get an ace past the first round while even the raw super talented hs bats go in mid to late first with the rare mature hs hitter with fully gown power (like harper who hit moonshots at at 15 yo go higher).

At the college level you can find aces but after the first 1-2 college pitchers the talent dries up.

 

Hitting is not as extreme but after pick 8 or so upside gets limited. 

 

Imo late first to third round can be a good time to pitch risky hs pitchers.

Or pay over slot for them on Day 2 and 3

[bmags 1,156]

There was some fangraphs article that while HS RHP in the top ten have had a horrible hit rate, they tend to have great value in the 1st round supplemental and high 2nd round. 

[dominik-keul@gmx.de 29]

I can  understand why Teams don't draft hs arms in the top15 anymore, can't bust away those picks.

 

However I think the market has overcorrected in that legitimate top10-15 talents get dropped to the 35-60 range. My strategy would depend on the position  of the second pick. If it is 25-35 take the highest upside available hs bat. But if your second pick is 35-50 It might make sense to get a super talented hs arm rather than "the rest" of the HS bats and many teams vulture on them in the comp round.

[dominik-keul@gmx.de 29]

Some stats:

 

Top15 war 16-18

1. Trout, hs 26.1R

2.betts  , 5R

3. Altuve int low bonus 

4. Ramirez int 50k

5.lindor hs 8. 1R

6. Yelich hs 23. 1R 

7. Rendon 6. 1R COLLEGE 

8. Bryant 2nd 1R college 

9. Arenado 10th 2R HS

10.freeman 14th 2R hS

11. Goldschmidt 15, 8R college

12. Votto 3rd, 2R HS

13. Machado 3rd 1R,Hs

14. Turner 9th, 7R college

15. Blackmon 26th, 2R college

 

Some trends: 

-Hs stars tend to be first rounders generally pick 1-25

-college bats are  top10 picks with the exception of corner bats who were often found in round 2 or even later. Generally very few college bats are playing premium positions

-international stars have a variety of backgrounds