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PECOTA: 70-92


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10 hours ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

Does anyone actually put any value in PECOTA? Just seems like it is a highly inaccurate model, and the further a team roster is away from veteran-laden, the less accurate it is.

 

What did PECOTA predict for last season?

8 hours ago, OmarComing25 said:

PECOTA has the Cubs at 82-80... Really?

They feel that the Cubs will be good, but the rest of their division will be scary good.  Besides, the Cubs have one of the (if not THE) oldest pitching staffs in the game.

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21 minutes ago, Donaldo said:

What did PECOTA predict for last season?

They feel that the Cubs will be good, but the rest of their division will be scary good.  Besides, the Cubs have one of the (if not THE) oldest pitching staffs in the game.

Last year it was 72-90.   So with their accuracy we can expect to be 64-98.  Let's wait for Vegas numbers.  Last year this book had White Sox at 65 wins and they had 62. 

 

https://www.docsports.com/current/mlb-season-win-totals-predictions-720.html

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Here's a good review of what the projection systems did last year: http://www.banishedtothepen.com/evaluating-the-2018-predictions-and-projections/

A couple of insights: the best performer (PECOTA) was, on average, off by 7.5 wins. These systems will basically always underestimate the best teams and overestimate the worst teams. This is why for several seasons now it has been overestimating the Sox — especially when you consider that it doesn't bake in the assumption that the worst teams will dump their veteran performers in trades nor does it factor in the best teams adding good players via trade.

The article also gives another useful way to think about these projections, which is the way it orders the teams. So the Sox projection was a ways off in terms of wins but basically correct in that we were widely projected to be one of MLB's worst teams.

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