Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
bmags

PECOTA: 70-92

Recommended Posts

6 hours ago, Greg Hibbard said:

Considering his young age and how much baseball he missed waiting to get here, I truly don’t understand why people don’t project him to improve. 

It’s all based on comps and aging curves.  It’s not someone’s opinion or anything. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

Does anyone actually put any value in PECOTA? Just seems like it is a highly inaccurate model, and the further a team roster is away from veteran-laden, the less accurate it is.

 

What did PECOTA predict for last season?

8 hours ago, OmarComing25 said:

PECOTA has the Cubs at 82-80... Really?

They feel that the Cubs will be good, but the rest of their division will be scary good.  Besides, the Cubs have one of the (if not THE) oldest pitching staffs in the game.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, Donaldo said:

What did PECOTA predict for last season?

73-89.  PECOTA preferred the 2018 white sox to the 2019 white sox.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Donaldo said:

What did PECOTA predict for last season?

They feel that the Cubs will be good, but the rest of their division will be scary good.  Besides, the Cubs have one of the (if not THE) oldest pitching staffs in the game.

Last year it was 72-90.   So with their accuracy we can expect to be 64-98.  Let's wait for Vegas numbers.  Last year this book had White Sox at 65 wins and they had 62. 

 

https://www.docsports.com/current/mlb-season-win-totals-predictions-720.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's a good review of what the projection systems did last year: http://www.banishedtothepen.com/evaluating-the-2018-predictions-and-projections/

A couple of insights: the best performer (PECOTA) was, on average, off by 7.5 wins. These systems will basically always underestimate the best teams and overestimate the worst teams. This is why for several seasons now it has been overestimating the Sox — especially when you consider that it doesn't bake in the assumption that the worst teams will dump their veteran performers in trades nor does it factor in the best teams adding good players via trade.

The article also gives another useful way to think about these projections, which is the way it orders the teams. So the Sox projection was a ways off in terms of wins but basically correct in that we were widely projected to be one of MLB's worst teams.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×