Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
NorthSideSox72

FS: 2019 is the Year of Seby Zavala

Recommended Posts

For Mike Rankin's second article on FutureSox, he takes a look at the "next up" catchers in the organization with a focus on Seby Zavala as the likely next prospect to get a shot on the MLB club.

Do you agree? Or do you think Collins gets there first? Do you agree with Collins and Zavala being together at AAA to start the year? Who will ultimately be the better player? Will Collins even stick at C?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Zavala is 100% in the lead for the next crack at catcher of all of our prospects.  He is ahead of Collins for sure. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It would just be nice for one of the prospects to step up and show us a thing or two. Not just Eloy but someone like Seb. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, dominik-keul@gmx.de said:

Collins is a much better hitter but can he catch?

I'm not sure Collins actually is a "much" better hitter. I agree his offensive ceiling, given his 60 or 65 power (Zavala being more like 55) and elite eye (Zavala's walk rates and K-rates are middle-of-the road), is definitely higher. But he's got substantial problems with the hit tool, and IMO a pretty low floor as a hitter. His swing has been under regular changes and sometimes has a problematic hitch, and he's not putting the ball in play enough yet to portend a good future in the majors. He needs more cooking.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

I'm not sure Collins actually is a "much" better hitter. I agree his offensive ceiling, given his 60 or 65 power (Zavala being more like 55) and elite eye (Zavala's walk rates and K-rates are middle-of-the road), is definitely higher. But he's got substantial problems with the hit tool, and IMO a pretty low floor as a hitter. His swing has been under regular changes and sometimes has a problematic hitch, and he's not putting the ball in play enough yet to portend a good future in the majors. He needs more cooking.

 

Zavala is also striking out a lot, pretty similar to collins. He had some super high babips giving him a decent average but I'm not sure that will stick in the majors.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, dominik-keul@gmx.de said:

Zavala is also striking out a lot, pretty similar to collins. He had some super high babips giving him a decent average but I'm not sure that will stick in the majors.

Collins K-rates in 2017-2018: 27.4% in 2017, 29.8% in 2018

Zavala K-rates in 2017-2018: 23.9% in 2017, 25.9% in 2018

And Zavala had a wrist injury in 2018. 25% isn't a good number, but it's not worrisome in today's environment, where as pushing 30 is getting into that worrying territory. They are not dramatically different, but the difference is significant.

I'm not personally a believer in BABIP at the minor league level given the defense, fields, etc. I just don't see it as an evaluative tool. And if you think his averages are inflated by BABIP, he's been in the pros now for 3.5 season (maybe more like 3 with a little missed time) and kept doing it, hitting .270 for his career. That's enough time for BABIP to even out quite a bit at any level.

I have substantially more concern about Collins' hit tool than Zavala's, at least in terms of basic bat-to-ball. But Collins has more raw power and will obviously walk a lot more often too (though I think the walk rates will deteriorate some as he moves up if he doesn't start hitting more pitches).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Has there ever been a major league hitter with an average under .200 who walks a lot?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

Collins K-rates in 2017-2018: 27.4% in 2017, 29.8% in 2018

Zavala K-rates in 2017-2018: 23.9% in 2017, 25.9% in 2018

And Zavala had a wrist injury in 2018. 25% isn't a good number, but it's not worrisome in today's environment, where as pushing 30 is getting into that worrying territory. They are not dramatically different, but the difference is significant.

I'm not personally a believer in BABIP at the minor league level given the defense, fields, etc. I just don't see it as an evaluative tool. And if you think his averages are inflated by BABIP, he's been in the pros now for 3.5 season (maybe more like 3 with a little missed time) and kept doing it, hitting .270 for his career. That's enough time for BABIP to even out quite a bit at any level.

I have substantially more concern about Collins' hit tool than Zavala's, at least in terms of basic bat-to-ball. But Collins has more raw power and will obviously walk a lot more often too (though I think the walk rates will deteriorate some as he moves up if he doesn't start hitting more pitches).

Great stuff. I'm hopeful the Sox can get a solid platoon out of both of these guys. Over the past 3 seasons, Collins has a slash line of .243/.394/.453 against RHP (and his worst year was in Winston-Salem in 2016). Not anything eye opening, and I realize using low minor splits isn't the best supporting data, but at least he doesn't appear to an automatic out on the strong side. He's absolutely terrible against LHP (.202/.333/.353 in the same sample), which I know Seby excels at hitting. I wonder if that's why the Sox are pushing Collins to Charlotte? 

3 hours ago, oldsox said:

Has there ever been a major league hitter with an average under .200 who walks a lot?

Joey Gallo, Chris Carter, and... *gulp* Adam Dunn are a few that come to mind (all over 10% BB%). Depends on how you value those guys, but all of them had fairly long careers, and obviously Gallo is still playing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, oldsox said:

Has there ever been a major league hitter with an average under .200 who walks a lot?

Does Adam Dunn count? strikes out alot too

Edited by Ben Waffleson

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, dominik-keul@gmx.de said:

There are no mlb regulars with a sub 200 average. But there were plenty low to mid 200s guys who walked a lot.

Maybe Collins can be jack cust.

 

Jack Cust lol.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×