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Jack Parkman

Personal opinions on Sox rebuild pieces.

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I'm starting this thread so we can have an intelligent discussion about the major Sox rebuild pieces. I'll give you my thought on a few players and I'll add more later:

Moncada: 

The dude oozes talent out of every orifice of his body. It's easy to see why he was once the #1 prospect in the game. With him, it is all about making contact. His hit tool is the most questionable of his tools. When I evaluate him, batting average and Ks are the two stats I use to evaluate him. When he makes contact, he absolutely pulverizes baseballs. If he gets his hits and cuts down on the Ks, the rest will take care of itself. His eye is incredible and he absolutely has the potential to approach or exceed a .400 OBP. If he ends up hitting .275+, he's going to be a star. If I had to pick who the next 40-40 player is, the only players capable are Trout, Jose Ramirez and Moncada. 

Reynaldo Lopez:

Out of all of the Sox controllable pitchers, he's the guy least likely to bust. He's at the very least going to be a back end starter, with the ceiling of Carlos Carrasco. The only thing that may hold him back is his lack of a consistent breaking ball or out pitch. His fastball and changeup are both above average, but his breakers aren't great. If he can develop one, he can be a good #2. 

Giolito: 

 He's the most frustrating pitcher I've seen in a Sox uniform since  Javy Vazquez. His breaking stuff is awesome, he throws mid 90s but his stuff moves so much he has no idea where its going. He looks every part of a future ace stuff wise, but somehow can't miss bats or hit the broad side of a barn. I'm not willing to give up on him yet, but it is baffling to me how his results are so awful given the quality of his arsenal. He has to figure out how to harness it otherwise he's going to bust. Long story short, the dude had been a project since the Nats fucked up his delivery and anything they get out of him is gravy. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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I like Lopez profile more than most. If he can locate his slider, his FB starts becoming an out pitch. His slider isn't great, but he still needs to throw it a lot more. If he can change eye levels with the slider, the high FB becomes really hard to hit. He's been dominant in spots. I think his ceiling is still a solid #2. His change can also be devastating at times. I think he can be a poor man's peak Bartolo Colon. 

 

Giolito is just too high maintenance to stick. The stuff is there sometimes, but he has so much shit going on with his delivery and his mental approach that I don't see him ever being consistent enough. He's a lot like Gavin Floyd. The talent is there. Everything else is lacking. 

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11 hours ago, TaylorStSox said:

I like Lopez profile more than most. If he can locate his slider, his FB starts becoming an out pitch. His slider isn't great, but he still needs to throw it a lot more. If he can change eye levels with the slider, the high FB becomes really hard to hit. He's been dominant in spots. I think his ceiling is still a solid #2. His change can also be devastating at times. I think he can be a poor man's peak Bartolo Colon. 

 

Giolito is just too high maintenance to stick. The stuff is there sometimes, but he has so much shit going on with his delivery and his mental approach that I don't see him ever being consistent enough. He's a lot like Gavin Floyd. The talent is there. Everything else is lacking. 

Edit: I guess that was something that I should have kept to myself. Sorry to all I offended. I didn't mean for that to come out that way. 

With regard to Lopez, I think his curve has more potential than his slider. His slider and changeup are too close in velocity that they negate both of their effectiveness. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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12 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

In life, sometimes you can be too intelligent and self aware for your own good. You end up over thinking everything, and despite being immensely talented, you constantly get in your own way. I have that problem myself, and I see a lot of the same in Giolito. It is why I root for him so hard. I see many similar qualities in him that I have myself so I want him to figure it out. It would at least give me some sort of evidence that people who overthink everything can actually get out of their own way long enough to become successful. 

With regard to Lopez, I think his curve has more potential than his slider. His slider and changeup are too close in velocity that they negate both of their effectiveness. 

So you think you're too intelligent for your own good? You actually think that? Jesus Christ, dude. I'm gonna leave this thread now. 

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I like Moncada. Not thrilled with any of the pitching I've seen yet. Sometimes it looks good; often not. The future is gonna be all relief pitchers as starters anyway, right? Teams are going to go with "starters" that work an inning or two then on to the next guy. I like Timmy Anderson. Hopeful like everybody else on all the minor league outfielders/DH types.

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11 hours ago, TaylorStSox said:

So you think you're too intelligent for your own good? You actually think that? Jesus Christ, dude. I'm gonna leave this thread now. 

My intention wasn't to be condescending or anything, it was to explain how people sometimes overthink and overcomplicate things that should be simple or intuitive based on the acquisition of knowledge, if that makes sense to you. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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I will very surprised if Eloy is anything less than extraordinary. Like MVP caliber if it weren't for the GOAT hogging the award every year.

Rutherford is an all star caliber player to me. He's got it all once the power develops.

Robert can be the best of the whole bunch, even better than Eloy, but he can't stay healthy and even if he does I have zero faith the Sox can develop him. He would basically have to overcome the Sox ineptitude through sheer talent.

Hopefully Kopech recovers. They need him to be a stud, which everyone sees the obvious potential for.

Madrigal should be a good 2b.

The rest gives me almost no cause for hope unless someone like Adolfo has a few things go right. I have no hope for Moncada, Giolito or Lopez.

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JACK: You did not overthink this. 

If I had to pick who the next 40-40 player is, the only players capable are Trout, Jose Ramirez and Moncada." 

 

Mookie Betts had 32/30 last year. 

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5 hours ago, KiwiSox said:

I have no hope for Moncada

I can't believe there are people who feel this way. Is it because he was the #1 prospect at one point and people expected him to come out and be Mike Trout right away? I don't know how any intelligent human being could watch Yoan and have no hope for him. It's ridiculous. 

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Moncada will have a much better year, and his move to 3rd base will make him even more valuable.  I feel that he'll be a perennial 20/20 guy, possibly hitting 30+ HRs eventually.  He needs to be more aggressive and swing at the close pitches, especially when he's down in the count.  I think that is he can hit .260+ this year, he'll continue to get better.

I think Luis Robert has the potential to be a superstar.  His speed alone is going to make him a menace for other teams.  He's shown that he has huge raw power.  That HR he hit the other day looked like he barely swung the bat.  If he lives up to his potential, he'll be a force.  If he lives up to some of his potential, he'll still be a difference maker.

Like Robert, I think Eloy can be a star.  Obviously doesn't have the speed or defensive tools that Robert has, but the hit and power tools are scary.  He's another one that has to realize just some of his potential to be good.

I don't know enough about a lot of the other guys.  But I like Madrigal's chances to be a solid second baseman for the Sox. 

This year will be very telling for a good number of the prospects.  

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34 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

I can't believe there are people who feel this way. Is it because he was the #1 prospect at one point and people expected him to come out and be Mike Trout right away? I don't know how any intelligent human being could watch Yoan and have no hope for him. It's ridiculous. 

I am not overly worried about Moncada but I do think when you have guys like Acuna with the Braves and Juan Soto with the Nats come up and look like all-star caliber players almost immediately, people will tend to over react and think the Sox guys are just busts with no hope at all....cause I mean, we haven't had many position players come up and set the world on fire for awhile.  And if they did, they flamed out right away like Beckham.  Watching a rebuild from afar for another team, everything looks easier.  When it's your squad going through it, seems like everything is going wrong, guys aren't developing, there is no hope, etc.  I am willing to give Moncada, Lopez and Giolito another full year before I make any assumptions on these guys.

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Dylan Cease is a guy that I am really looking forward to seeing pitch in AAA this season. He seems to have the potential for a June/July call-up (assuming he starts in Triple-A and not Double-A). I really think that we will see him elevate into the top 10 of prospect rankings by mid-season.

Luis Gonzalez is a guy that I am really high on. Seems like he can do a little bit of everything. I am guessing he starts the season in Birmingham, and I am very interested to see him compete against that level.

Eloy is going to be a star in this league, I have no doubt about that.

Kopech, assuming there are no set backs from the injury, will be excellent for the White Sox. From what I can tell, he is one of the hardest workers in the game and I think this injury will only motivate him more to come out of the gate really strong in 2020.

Luis Robert's potential is out of this world. I said it in another thread, but I think he could potentially follow the Ronald Acuna path by playing in three different levels his year.

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1 hour ago, SCCWS said:

JACK: You did not overthink this. 

If I had to pick who the next 40-40 player is, the only players capable are Trout, Jose Ramirez and Moncada." 

 

Mookie Betts had 32/30 last year. 

I don't think Betts will do it, even thougj he went 30-30 last year. The Red Sox don't steal bags enough. 

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7 hours ago, KiwiSox said:

I will very surprised if Eloy is anything less than extraordinary. Like MVP caliber if it weren't for the GOAT hogging the award every year.

Rutherford is an all star caliber player to me. He's got it all once the power develops.

Robert can be the best of the whole bunch, even better than Eloy, but he can't stay healthy and even if he does I have zero faith the Sox can develop him. He would basically have to overcome the Sox ineptitude through sheer talent.

Hopefully Kopech recovers. They need him to be a stud, which everyone sees the obvious potential for.

Madrigal should be a good 2b.

The rest gives me almost no cause for hope unless someone like Adolfo has a few things go right. I have no hope for Moncada, Giolito or Lopez.

You have no hope for Reynaldo Lopez, a guy who put up a 3.91 ERA and 3.1 WAR as a 24 year old and isn't even close to hitting his peak. Alrighty then. 

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8 minutes ago, Whitesox27 said:

You have no hope for Reynaldo Lopez, a guy who put up a 3.91 ERA and 3.1 WAR as a 24 year old and isn't even close to hitting his peak. Alrighty then. 

If the White Sox had 3 more starting  pitchers as good as Lopez,  White Sox fans would have a better outlook on the upcoming 2019 season than what they do now.

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13 minutes ago, Whitesox27 said:

You have no hope for Reynaldo Lopez, a guy who put up a 3.91 ERA and 3.1 WAR as a 24 year old and isn't even close to hitting his peak. Alrighty then. 

Lopez was one of the bright spots last year.  He showed flashes of being an exceptional pitcher, and pitched well overall.  As you pointed out, he's young and has plenty of room to grow.  I would expect a stronger year from him in 2019.

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I just hope he uses the curve over the slider.. But we know coop will push slider on him....

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1 hour ago, hogan873 said:

Moncada will have a much better year, and his move to 3rd base will make him even more valuable. 

Moncada would have to improve quite a bit at the plate to be more valuable at 3rd, unless he is significantly better at 3rd than 2nd which I find hard to believe

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Moncada, Anderson, Lopez and Rodon are all useful everyday pieces as is. Yolmer could be useful if deployed correctly. Obviously a lot of room for improvement for Yoan, and I think there will be plenty. 

But pieces are just pieces, after letting Machado go, If you don't get a star or two out of Eloy/Moncada/Robert this whole thing is DOA.

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4 hours ago, mqr said:

Moncada, Anderson, Lopez and Rodon are all useful everyday pieces as is. Yolmer could be useful if deployed correctly. Obviously a lot of room for improvement for Yoan, and I think there will be plenty. 

But pieces are just pieces, after letting Machado go, If you don't get a star or two out of Eloy/Moncada/Robert this whole thing is DOA.

This is the key to the rebuild. It depends on those three guys. If two don't develop in to stars, they're screwed. As good as Eloy is, both Moncada and Robert's ceilings are higher. Eloy is the safest bet to reach his ceiling, but his ceiling is, in my opinion~4.5-5.5 WAR. Moncada and Robert will probably be at least 2.5-3.5 WAR players, with the ability settle in at 5-6.5 and put up individual seasons of 7-8+

Ceiling in terms of player comp, based on my opinion: 

Eloy-JD Martinez

Robert-Mookie Betts

Moncada-Jose Ramirez

This is ceiling, as in best case scenario people. 

 

Edited by Jack Parkman
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11 minutes ago, JoshPR said:

Did we have a star in 05? 

Not according to the mainsteam sports media but I would say Dye and Konerko were at Star level that year, offensively, and Crede defensively.

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