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Jack Parkman

Personal opinions on Sox rebuild pieces.

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5 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

My opinion is that they don't have enough pitching.

I think we will need to sign or trade for a #1/#2 type pitcher.  Then we'll need either Kopech or Cease to be the other #1/#2.  The other three spots can be filled with Lopez, Giolito, Dunning, Hansen, Flores, Lambert, etc.  This means one of Kopech/Cease could completely bust and we'd still have our future rotation. Or if both of those guys hit, then we'd only need 2 of the 6 guys I listed to become a part of the rotation.

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21 minutes ago, JoshPR said:

Did we have a star in 05? 

The goal isn't to have 1 good run. 

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15 minutes ago, Scoots said:

Not according to the mainsteam sports media but I would say Dye and Konerko were at Star level that year, offensively, and Crede defensively.

Dye's 2006 was one of the best offensive seasons by a Sox hitter outside of Frank. 

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1 hour ago, SoxBlanco said:

I think we will need to sign or trade for a #1/#2 type pitcher.  Then we'll need either Kopech or Cease to be the other #1/#2.  The other three spots can be filled with Lopez, Giolito, Dunning, Hansen, Flores, Lambert, etc.  This means one of Kopech/Cease could completely bust and we'd still have our future rotation. Or if both of those guys hit, then we'd only need 2 of the 6 guys I listed to become a part of the rotation.

That may be, probably is, but they just don't have enough in general.   The attrition rate is high, both in injury and in performance, as we've seen.

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1 hour ago, mqr said:

Moncada, Anderson, Lopez and Rodon are all useful everyday pieces as is. Yolmer could be useful if deployed correctly. Obviously a lot of room for improvement for Yoan, and I think there will be plenty. 

But pieces are just pieces, after letting Machado go, If you don't get a star or two out of Eloy/Moncada/Robert this whole thing is DOA.

If Rodon has a good first half, I think they'll make him available at the deadline.  Could get a decent return for him.

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35 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Dye's 2006 was one of the best offensive seasons by a Sox hitter outside of Frank. 

1998 Albert Belles 2nd and last season with the Sox was amazing. Led the league in games played, Slugging, OPS, OPS+, and total bases. 48 doubles, 49 HR's, 152 RBI. DIdn't make the AS team and came in a distant 8th in MVP voting but won a Silver Slugger Award.

Red hot 2nd half , named Player of the Month for July and September. Player of the Week for 2 straight weeks in July. 3rd in batting average, 7th in OBP. 2nd in doubles , 2nd in HR's.

1st in Runs Created. 3rd in times on base. 1st in Offensive Win %., 1st in Sac Flys. 1st in Extra base hits. 1st in Adj. Batting Wins, 1st in RE24, . 7.1 WAR  which was 3rd as a position player even though he  played LF ,not too shabby.

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2 minutes ago, GGajewski18 said:

If Rodon has a good first half, I think they'll make him available at the deadline.  Could get a decent return for him.

I don't think so unless they get an offer too good to pass up. Remember he was hurt last year so his IP's this year won't be a high as a contender might like for the 2nd half and doubtful he'd be able to pitch at all in the post season unless his starts get severely limited or pitches as a reliever.

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15 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

1998 Albert Belles 2nd and last season with the Sox was amazing. Led the league in games played, Slugging, OPS, OPS+, and total bases. 48 doubles, 49 HR's, 152 RBI. DIdn't make the AS team and came in a distant 8th in MVP voting but won a Silver Slugger Award.

Red hot 2nd half , named Player of the Month for July and September. Player of the Week for 2 straight weeks in July. 3rd in batting average, 7th in OBP. 2nd in doubles , 2nd in HR's.

1st in Runs Created. 3rd in times on base. 1st in Offensive Win %., 1st in Sac Flys. 1st in Extra base hits. 1st in Adj. Batting Wins, 1st in RE24, . 7.1 WAR  which was 3rd as a position player even though he  played LF ,not too shabby.

Belle's 1998 was probably the best non-Frank season in Sox history. Dye's 2006 is a distant second. 

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Moncada: I think will be a good player, but will fall well short of reaching the hype a #1 overall prospect gets tagged with. I do not trust the White Sox to develop bat-to-ball skills.

Anderson: He'll stick at short and be a solid regular

Rodon: I think he is what he is and will never be consistent enough to be better than a #3

Lopez: I like him a lot more than the projections have him this year. He's almost as inconsistent as Giolito, but he has the stuff to overcome it better when he's not "on" I think he will be at worst a valuable mid-rotation pitcher.

Giolito: I hope he can develop into an innings eating 4/5 but I have my doubts

Prospects:

Eloy: He's going to be very good and I'm not worried he's going to be doomed into being a 1B/DH when he's 25

Robert: I think he's the second best prospect in the Sox system, but he hasn't stayed healthy. Obviously staying on the field is as important or more than anything else. I think he's a top 15 prospect going into next year if he plays in 120 games.

Madrigal: I think he'll cap out as a 3/4 WAR player similar to Moncada, but it will be in a less frustrating way that makes him more of a fan favorite

Other OFs in the system: Rutherford > Basabe > Adolfo >  Gonzalez > Walker

Collins & Burger: Won't cut it at catcher and third, respectively. I'll take Collins with a better shot at being a big leaguer.

Kopech: I think he will be fine after the injury and should still slot into one of the 1/2 spots in the rotation

Cease: I think he'll be similar to Lopez. I don't think he has great fastball command or a third pitch.

Dunning & Hansen: I don't really trust either at this point

I don't really have strong opinions on any of the pitching prospects

 

This is not going to be enough to build anything other than a fringe playoff contender with only internal options.

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2 hours ago, JoshPR said:

Did we have a star in 05? 

Not really, but we had almost NO weaknesses.

Every spot on the field was filled by a player who served a purpose. The bench was decent, the bullpen was terrific, and the rotation was solid even without an outright ace.

The only issue was the fifth starter, and we got a 12-11 W-L record from that slot.

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More opinions: 

Kopech: I wasn't sold on him until about late July last year.  At that point, he had answered all of the questions I had about his control.  I thought he was overthrowing and would end up as a closer before then. I saw him in person for his first start in a Sox uni and was impressed...until the rains came. I'm going to have to re-evaluate him after he returns from TJS. I wonder if the Sox would attempt to obtain a year of service time back by sending him to AAA until 6/15/2020. It is a completely justifiable decision due to his injury and it would be hard to win a grievance on his behalf. Getting his feet wet post TJS in Charlotte isn't unheard of with someone of minimal MLB experience. We know about his fastball, his slider is electric and he has an average curve and change. 

Robert: If he stays healthy, I completely expect him to be a top 10 prospect on most lists entering 2020. He's basically the same player as Moncada, with slightly more power and he bats right handed. Just like with Moncada, the sky is the limit if he can make contact at the MLB level. Nobody's seen enough of him to know much more than this.  

Cease: If his changeup plays, he's got ace upside. A bit worried about control. He still has significant reliever risk. Cease is basically the same guy I thought Kopech was until he(MK) found his control last summer. Great fastball and Curve, below average change and slider with room for improvement. 

Other OF prospects, not going to write them up, but in order of how much I like them: 

1. Adolfo

2. Rutherford

3. Basabe (Rutherford and Basabe are pretty near equal in my book, I decided to go with Rutherford first because of his hit tool) 

4. Gonzalez

5. Walker

I don't expect much from Hansen or Dunning because they can't stay healthy. 

I'll get to Madrigal and Collins later. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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If we add zero players through trade/free agency and don't re-sign anybody who will be a free agent, how does this look for a potential 2021 team?  Which spots would we likely need to upgrade, and which spots are least likely to come to fruition? Obviously Vaughn at 1B is the least likely because there's a chance we won't even draft him, but I wanted to have a little fun with including our top pick from the 2019 draft. Everybody has a different opinion of the outfielders in our system, so you might have Basabe, Rutherford, or Walker instead of the guys I have there. You also might have Giolito, Hansen, or Flores in the rotation. 

Rotation:

  1. Kopech
  2. Rodon
  3. Cease
  4. Lopez
  5. Dunning

Lineup:

  1. Moncada 3B
  2. Robert CF
  3. Eloy LF
  4. Adolfo DH
  5. Vaughn 1B
  6. Collins C
  7. Gonzalez RF
  8. Anderson SS
  9. Madrigal 2B

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If I had to bet money on top 15 or so prospects I don't think will ever play a game for the White Sox for one reason or another, it would go as follows:

1. Jake Burger

2. Gavin Sheets

3. Blake Rutherford

Wouldn't bet on a pitcher because who knows he gets a spot start, or a week in the pen. 

Edited by mqr

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1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

Belle's 1998 was probably the best non-Frank season in Sox history. Dye's 2006 is a distant second. 

Dye didn't even lead his team in wRC+ or OPS+ that year.

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3 minutes ago, lasttriptotulsa said:

Dye didn't even lead his team in wRC+ or OPS+ that year.

Who did? Thome? Holy shit. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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Just now, Jack Parkman said:

Who did? Konerko or Thome? 

Thome. And Dick Allen's '72 season is probably the 2nd greatest season a White Sox player has ever had including Frank Thomas.

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4 minutes ago, lasttriptotulsa said:

Thome. And Dick Allen's '72 season is probably the 2nd greatest season a White Sox player has ever had including Frank Thomas.

I don't know how Dick Allen could have possibly topped any of Hurt's 93-95 seasons. Belle's 98 was close. Maybe I just ranked Dye too high from 06 because of the fact he hit .300 and Thome didn't, but as I was thinking about it, I thought that Thome's 2006 might have been better because he was an on base machine. 

OK I just looked up Dick Allen's 72 season. That was before my time so I forgot about it. I'd still take any of Frank's 93-95 seasons ahead of it, but you have an argument with regard to him and Belle. Now that I have the whole picture, I'd say: 

1. Belle's 98

2. Allen's 72

3. Thome's 06

4. Dye's 06

 

 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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If we're talking about pure talent and physical ability, I'd put Moncada and Robert 1A and 1B and Eloy at 2. They're both as about as physically gifted as any player you'll ever see. They most likely won't reach their potential, but that's because their potential is so incredibly high. 

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20 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

If we're talking about pure talent and physical ability, I'd put Moncada and Robert 1A and 1B and Eloy at 2. They're both as about as physically gifted as any player you'll ever see. They most likely won't reach their potential, but that's because their potential is so incredibly high. 

Agreed. Moncada and Robert both have the potential to put up a 10 WAR season or two. Whether they actually do is unlikely, and will have to be seen. Mike Trout is special because he puts up 10 WAR seasons consistently, something I don't think that either Moncada or Robert will do because they're both too volatile of players. Look at Bryce Harper's healthy seasons and peak, and I think Moncada and Robert will look a lot like that. They both will have individual seasons of 8-10 WAR sandwiched between seasons of 3.5-6 WAR. You're never going to exactly know what you'll get with those two. You could get an MVP season or just an above average season, or somewhere in between. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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At the plate, and physically, Moncada reminds me of Rickey Henderson. Obviously he's going to strike out a hell of a lot more, but he also has a lot more pure power. 

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1 minute ago, TaylorStSox said:

At the plate, and physically, Moncada reminds me of Rickey Henderson. Obviously he's going to strike out a hell of a lot more, but he also has a lot more pure power. 

Robert reminds me of a young Andruw Jones. 

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2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Robert reminds me of a young Andruw Jones. 

Physically I can see that. Man, at 21 Jones already had a 30 HR season and a GG. Dude was a sure fire 1st ballot HOF for years and then just completely fell off a cliff. 

Edited by TaylorStSox

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7 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

Physically I can see that. Man, at 21 Jones already had a 30 HR season and a GG. Dude was a sure fire 1st ballot HOF for years and then just completely fell off a cliff. 

I think Robert also has the potential to get fat like Jones did as he got older. I don't think Robert is going to be nearly as good of a defender as Jones was, but he physically reminds me of him. 

5 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

Robert might never stay healthy, but that kid has "holy shit" kind of power. 

He does. I'm sure Moncada can piss on baseballs as well, we just never see it in games because of his struggles to make contact. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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2 hours ago, The Sir said:

Not really, but we had almost NO weaknesses.

Every spot on the field was filled by a player who served a purpose. The bench was decent, the bullpen was terrific, and the rotation was solid even without an outright ace.

The only issue was the fifth starter, and we got a 12-11 W-L record from that slot.

That's exactly my point. Thank you

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