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Jack Parkman

Personal opinions on Sox rebuild pieces.

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I really wonder what creates this almost religious devotion to Yoan Moncada. Its been 900 MLB PA's and he still cant hit the ball, I dont even know what to tell you guys. People keep insisting to me that its too early to make any determinations, going so far as to compare Mike Trout's first 150 or so MLB PA's to a full season and a half of Moncada being an offensive black hole.

My best theory is that the only way to endure the fact that a possible first ballot HOFer on a ludicrously cheap contract was traded away for four players, none of the other three being particularly impressive, and the only way to keep your head up through it is to just pretend Moncada has looked like this superstar in the making when the truth is he is closer to a infield version of Byron Buxton.

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3 minutes ago, KiwiSox said:

I really wonder what creates this almost religious devotion to Yoan Moncada. Its been 900 MLB PA's and he still cant hit the ball, I dont even know what to tell you guys. People keep insisting to me that its too early to make any determinations, going so far as to compare Mike Trout's first 150 or so MLB PA's to a full season and a half of Moncada being an offensive black hole.

My best theory is that the only way to endure the fact that a possible first ballot HOFer on a ludicrously cheap contract was traded away for four players, none of the other three being particularly impressive, and the only way to keep your head up through it is to just pretend Moncada has looked like this superstar in the making when the truth is he is closer to a infield version of Byron Buxton.

other than about 20 points of wRC+ you're spot on!

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2 minutes ago, KiwiSox said:

I really wonder what creates this almost religious devotion to Yoan Moncada. Its been 900 MLB PA's and he still cant hit the ball, I dont even know what to tell you guys. People keep insisting to me that its too early to make any determinations, going so far as to compare Mike Trout's first 150 or so MLB PA's to a full season and a half of Moncada being an offensive black hole.

My best theory is that the only way to endure the fact that a possible first ballot HOFer on a ludicrously cheap contract was traded away for four players, none of the other three being particularly impressive, and the only way to keep your head up through it is to just pretend Moncada has looked like this superstar in the making when the truth is he is closer to a infield version of Byron Buxton.

He's been a league average hitter so far and he's only 23. 

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1 minute ago, almagest said:

He's been a league average hitter so far and he's only 23. 

So the Sox traded Chris Sale, a generational talent, for a league average switch hitter (who cant really switch hit)

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1 minute ago, KiwiSox said:

So the Sox traded Chris Sale, a generational talent, for a league average switch hitter (who cant really switch hit)

at this point with his struggles moncadas baseline is league average hitter and 2 war player. If he never improves this is his production. Thats one player in a package of 4 and 2 others are still promising.

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1 minute ago, KiwiSox said:

So the Sox traded Chris Sale, a generational talent, for a league average switch hitter (who cant really switch hit)

If you're basing this on his age 21 and 22 seasons with absolutely no future projection of improvement and not including Kopech or Basabe then yes that is correct. 

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1 minute ago, bmags said:

at this point with his struggles moncadas baseline is league average hitter and 2 war player. If he never improves this is his production. Thats one player in a package of 4 and 2 others are still promising.

We aren't going to see one of the others pitch again for another calendar year and the third guy looks decent-but-not-special. Someone should do a wellness check on Victor Diaz by the way.

It was a bad trade. I know people dont like hearing that but it was awful. Hindsight is always 20/20 but they would've been so much better off pursuing a deal with the Braves.

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3 minutes ago, KiwiSox said:

We aren't going to see one of the others pitch again for another calendar year and the third guy looks decent-but-not-special. Someone should do a wellness check on Victor Diaz by the way.

It was a bad trade. I know people dont like hearing that but it was awful. Hindsight is always 20/20 but they would've been so much better off pursuing a deal with the Braves.

k. If you think you are operating in hindsight, go ahead.

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Just now, bmags said:

k. If you think you are operating in hindsight, go ahead.

If you're going to make a deal the magnitude of Trading Away Chris Sale on a Team Friendly Contract you should do a whole lot more scouting than evaluating each offers respective player's position on that iteration of the Baseball American Top 100. There were signs even then that Acuna/Albies was a better duo to acquire than Moncada/Kopech.

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I'm watching the spring training game and they said Moncada has officially been moved to 3B. Hope he's good over there. And I hope Madrigal is the real deal our infield of Madrigal, Tim and Moncada figures to man 2B, SS, 3B for a long long time with Abreu at first for now.

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24 minutes ago, KiwiSox said:

If you're going to make a deal the magnitude of Trading Away Chris Sale on a Team Friendly Contract you should do a whole lot more scouting than evaluating each offers respective player's position on that iteration of the Baseball American Top 100. There were signs even then that Acuna/Albies was a better duo to acquire than Moncada/Kopech.

What a weird assumption that the scouting was based on BA100 lists.  Really weird assumption.  You’d have to apply that same logic to the other trades to really put the cherry on top of this clown case you’re arguing  

Even today I’d rather have Moncada/Kopech than Acuña/Albies.  

 

Everyone has the same frustration with Moncada man, your position isn’t anything new.  It’s just the general disappointment of last year with a bit of whiny added and a side of cliff-diving.  Everybody is familiar with that point of view.   A little improvement and he’s suddenly a reeeeeeally good player to have. 

Edited by Jerksticks
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The Sox went for the Home Run in their trades, despite the org usually being risk averse. I actually commend them for that. Moncada has the upside to be a MUCH better player than Benintendi or Devers. Kopech has a chance to be an ace. If either player reaches their ceiling they've already won the deal. 

Lopez/Giolito/Dunning was a fair deal for Eaton. The wild card is Giolito as he could swing it from a fair deal to a clear win for the Sox, should he get out of his own head. 

Eloy and Cease for Quintana was an excellent trade as well.

They nailed all 3 deals and I don't know how you can argue otherwise. Even if they don't work out, they still got excellent value. 

The odds are that 3 of these guys are going to hit it big. Which 3 do is the question. Only time will tell. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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8 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

I don't think Betts will do it, even thougj he went 30-30 last year. The Red Sox don't steal bags enough. 

Jack: Red Sox were 3rd in MLB in stolen bases.

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45 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

What a weird assumption that the scouting was based on BA100 lists.  Really weird assumption.  You’d have to apply that same logic to the other trades to really put the cherry on top of this clown case you’re arguing  

Even today I’d rather have Moncada/Kopech than Acuña/Albies.  

 

Everyone has the same frustration with Moncada man, your position isn’t anything new.  It’s just the general disappointment of last year with a bit of whiny added and a side of cliff-diving.  Everybody is familiar with that point of view.   A little improvement and he’s suddenly a reeeeeeally good player to have. 

This is out-of-control homerism. I'd rather have any one of Acuna OR Albies for Moncada and Kopech combined at this stage.

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16 minutes ago, SCCWS said:

Jack: Red Sox were 3rd in MLB in stolen bases.

Nice catch.

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If Moncada put up an .800 OPS with 25 homers and 25 SB's as a 24 year old, would anybody really be surprised? If Sale's elbow blew up this year, would anybody be surprised? This whole conversation could be a total 180 by this time next year and I don't think anybody in baseball would be surprised. 

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3 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

I don't know how Dick Allen could have possibly topped any of Hurt's 93-95 seasons. Belle's 98 was close. Maybe I just ranked Dye too high from 06 because of the fact he hit .300 and Thome didn't, but as I was thinking about it, I thought that Thome's 2006 might have been better because he was an on base machine. 

OK I just looked up Dick Allen's 72 season. That was before my time so I forgot about it. I'd still take any of Frank's 93-95 seasons ahead of it, but you have an argument with regard to him and Belle. Now that I have the whole picture, I'd say: 

1. Belle's 98

2. Allen's 72

3. Thome's 06

4. Dye's 06

 

 

I'm assuming you are discussing only modern era players. If not few can beat Shoeless Joe's numbers.

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39 minutes ago, ptatc said:

I'm assuming you are discussing only modern era players. If not few can beat Shoeless Joe's numbers.

Anything that happened before 1947 might as well be the 19th century to me. 

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1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

Anything that happened before 1947 might as well be the 19th century to me. 

That's your choice.

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Our pitching is overrated and MLB.com agrees, as they have us as the 18th rated pitching system. We are boom or bust. The good news is that we can trade our surplus outfielders and DH types for pitching down the line. 

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3 hours ago, SonofaRoache said:

Our pitching is overrated and MLB.com agrees, as they have us as the 18th rated pitching system. We are boom or bust. The good news is that we can trade our surplus outfielders and DH types for pitching down the line. 

I fear our pitching. It is potentially very bad.

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29 minutes ago, greg775 said:

I fear our pitching. It is potentially very bad.

The Sox pitching is a huge wild card. It could be anywhere from very bad to pretty good, or anywhere in between. That is what you get when 3/5 of your staff is 26 or younger and 2/5 are veteran retreads. 

Reading the Fangraphs writeups on Rodon, Giolito and Lopez weren't very inspiring though. Surprisingly enough, they think that of the three Lopez is the worst of the bunch. They don't think Lopez is a major league pitcher. They're not sure Giolito is either, but they're more optimistic about him than Lopez. They think Rodon is nothing more than a #4. So maybe the pitching really is worse than we think and there isn't room for growth. 

Edited by Jack Parkman
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6 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

The Sox pitching is a huge wild card. It could be anywhere from very bad to pretty good, or anywhere in between. That is what you get when 3/5 of your staff is 26 or younger and 2/5 are veteran retreads. 

Reading the Fangraphs writeups on Rodon, Giolito and Lopez weren't very inspiring though. Surprisingly enough, they think that of the three Lopez is the worst of the bunch. They don't think Lopez is a major league pitcher. They're not sure Giolito is either, but they're more optimistic about him than Lopez. They think Rodon is nothing more than a #4. So maybe the pitching really is worse than we think and there isn't room for growth. 

What write-ups?

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