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JUSTgottaBELIEVE

Who is your top 2019-20 free agent target

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51 minutes ago, YouGottaBeBleepingMe said:

LOL. Agree.

That would be such a White Sox thing to do too! Lose out on Machado and Harper. Try to appease a pissed off fanbase by overpyaing (oh the irony) for a productive guy and gambling that he will produce on the wrong side of 30.

Exactly. To be fair, Martinez is a lot better than Dunn was when the Sox signed him, but he's going to be 32 at this time next year. Not exactly a spring chicken.

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8 hours ago, YouGottaBeBleepingMe said:

The Cubs sat our Machado and Harper because they knew they were going to write large, comparable checks to Bryant and Baez (plus solid checks to Schwarber and possibly others).

The Red Sox know they will need to bring Betts up into the Machado and Harper realm. They will need to bring Sale up closer to Kershaw level soon.

The Yankees know they will have to bring Judge up into the Machado and Harper realm.

That is why Martinez would be a great singing for the White Sox. They can offer him more than the Red Sox will likely want to spend. Sadly, he will want a 6-7 year deal that includes per year money in between Machado and Harper. Since the White Sox will not want to pay him 1-2 years of potentially declining production, I would urge this MB to not hold its breath. Somewhere between 6/$150, 8/$200, or 6/$175, 8/$225 will be the price for Martinez. If anyone thinks he would take 4-$85, please step off of the ledge.

What makes you think he will beat his 5/110 contract he signed with the Red Sox when he was 30 yo rather than 32 yo?

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I believe 4/85 with a fifth option in the range of $20M with a $5 buyout is the type of contract JD will be looking at. I don’t see him topping his 5/110 contract signed with the Red Sox since he will be two years older and likely have a QO attached (whereas he didn’t last time around). Unless he experiences significant regression this year, I’d be all over 4/85 with a fifth year option. Even if he averages 135 wRC+ over those 4 years, which is a substantial drop in production from his last two years, he’d still compile ~10 fWAR over that period with ~500 PA/yr.

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10 hours ago, teorey23 said:

This is spot on, there’s nobody in next year’s free agency class that I want, you use that money for the big guns even though the Sox will just end up finishing in 2nd every time. I don’t want them touching any of the junk next year. And with that being said they’ll overpay for some aging bum next year only to say “hey we spend the money”. They screwed up this offseason and deserve to be destroyed for it. I for one will not forgive them for blowing this offseason. 

Me neither. I loved how they played smartly with the international pool to snag Abreu and Robert. The only really had to outbid the Cardinals on Robert since the other large market teams were out of the bidding per MLB rules. I really thought that they played their cards so well. They unloaded all of those bad contracts or let them expire. They had the perfect free agency class. Two premium talents about to enter their primes. All of the large market teams capped out, saving salary for their young core, or a financial mess (Mets). They only had to outbid the Phillies and Padres when the White Sox payroll was so south of $100 MM that it hurt. The stars were perfectly aligned, and the White Sox f***** it up. This one hurt, and, unless they can sign a Trout, Bryant, Betts, or Bregman, I will not be getting over this any time soon. Unless, of course, all of the White Sox prospects come up and produce like the Cubs and Astros prospects did.

Edited by YouGottaBeBleepingMe
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10 hours ago, Whitesox27 said:

Exactly. To be fair, Martinez is a lot better than Dunn was when the Sox signed him, but he's going to be 32 at this time next year. Not exactly a spring chicken.

Oh, I know Martinez >>> Dunn.

Still, for a guy who will be 31 in 2019 (and who would be 32 if he signed with the White Sox after he opts out this winter), if the White Sox were worried about giving Machado or Harper an inflated salary for perhaps 1 or 2 years on the back side of a 10 year deal, I do not see how they would be willing to to pay perhaps 1 or 2 years of inflated salary for a guy like Martinez.

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2 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

What makes you think he will beat his 5/110 contract he signed with the Red Sox when he was 30 yo rather than 32 yo?

Look at his stats.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martijd02.shtml

This guy took a short term deal last winter with an opt-out because there was not an optimal market when he was out there. The Red Sox got him on the cheap as a result. This was the same logic behind the Yankees and Dodgers checking-in on Harper like they did. Both sides won. Red Sox won a World Series, and Martinez put up monster numbers for that team to elevate his stock.

If Martinez puts up another year like his last 5 when he was an every day player, he will be worth between $26 and $30 per year for the next 5-7 years (which would take him to age 37-39). Since he lost the "big contract" that he was looking for last winter, he will want to be paid this time as it is his last contract. If a team steps up (like the Padres did with Machado), no way he stays in Boston unless Boston is the team that steps up and pays him. With what they will be paying Betts and Sale among others already on the payroll, I do not see the Red Sox paying Martinez that kind of money.

In light of this, I just do not see 5/$110. It would be as "good" as $8/$250 for Machado. Between 5/$130-150 or 7/$182 -210 will be the market for JD Martinez.

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On 3/6/2019 at 2:08 PM, ChiSox59 said:

I just threw a number out there without really looking into it.  You're probably right.  But 5/$110M and 6/$150M is an AAV difference of $3M.  Not insanely far apart.  

With this front office, that’s an insurmountable number unless you defer half of it and add incentives. 

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13 minutes ago, YouGottaBeBleepingMe said:

Look at his stats.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martijd02.shtml

This guy took a short term deal last winter with an opt-out because there was not an optimal market when he was out there. The Red Sox got him on the cheap as a result. This was the same logic behind the Yankees and Dodgers checking-in on Harper like they did. Both sides won. Red Sox won a World Series, and Martinez put up monster numbers for that team to elevate his stock.

If Martinez puts up another year like his last 5 when he was an every day player, he will be worth between $26 and $30 per year for the next 5-7 years (which would take him to age 37-39). Since he lost the "big contract" that he was looking for last winter, he will want to be paid this time as it is his last contract. If a team steps up (like the Padres did with Machado), no way he stays in Boston unless Boston is the team that steps up and pays him. With what they will be paying Betts and Sale among others already on the payroll, I do not see the Red Sox paying Martinez that kind of money.

In light of this, I just do not see 5/$110. It would be as "good" as $8/$250 for Machado. Between 5/$130-150 or 7/$182 -210 will be the market for JD Martinez.

I don’t think there’s a market for him. He may be stuck in Boston. 

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4 minutes ago, ewokpelts said:

I don’t think there’s a market for him. He may be stuck in Boston. 

Last 5 years:

Home Runs / RBI / Average

23 / 76 / .315

38 / 102 / .282

22 / 68 / .307

45 / 104 / .303

43 / 130 / .330

Name 1 team in all of baseball that does not need that level of production?

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5 minutes ago, YouGottaBeBleepingMe said:

Last 5 years:

Home Runs / RBI / Average

23 / 76 / .315

38 / 102 / .282

22 / 68 / .307

45 / 104 / .303

43 / 130 / .330

Name 1 team in all of baseball that does not need that level of production?

Need? All or most. 

 

Want to to pay him more than what he’s getting now at age 32? Not many at all. 

 

The new market is the superstars get paid big bucks and the very good don’t get the big bucks  

 

 

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2 hours ago, YouGottaBeBleepingMe said:

Look at his stats.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martijd02.shtml

This guy took a short term deal last winter with an opt-out because there was not an optimal market when he was out there. The Red Sox got him on the cheap as a result. This was the same logic behind the Yankees and Dodgers checking-in on Harper like they did. Both sides won. Red Sox won a World Series, and Martinez put up monster numbers for that team to elevate his stock.

If Martinez puts up another year like his last 5 when he was an every day player, he will be worth between $26 and $30 per year for the next 5-7 years (which would take him to age 37-39). Since he lost the "big contract" that he was looking for last winter, he will want to be paid this time as it is his last contract. If a team steps up (like the Padres did with Machado), no way he stays in Boston unless Boston is the team that steps up and pays him. With what they will be paying Betts and Sale among others already on the payroll, I do not see the Red Sox paying Martinez that kind of money.

In light of this, I just do not see 5/$110. It would be as "good" as $8/$250 for Machado. Between 5/$130-150 or 7/$182 -210 will be the market for JD Martinez.

You still haven’t explained why his list of suitors and market will greatly improve from what he experienced last winter. I would be shocked if he exceeds $110 guaranteed.

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22 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

You still haven’t explained why his list of suitors and market will greatly improve from what he experienced last winter. I would be shocked if he exceeds $110 guaranteed.

I wouldn't be shocked but he won't get much more and certainly not the numbers YouGottaBEBleepingMe is throwing around so casually. $150M max and that's a stretch. Much depends on this year however. Hard to equal how good he was with the Red Sox.

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14 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I wouldn't be shocked but he won't get much more and certainly not the numbers YouGottaBEBleepingMe is throwing around so casually. $150M max and that's a stretch. Much depends on this year however. Hard to equal how good he was with the Red Sox.

Even with a repeat of his 2018 season this year, I’d still be shocked if he beats $110M guaranteed. How many AL teams, besides the white sox, are willing to pay that kind of money that don’t already have the DH slot covered?

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17 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Even with a repeat of his 2018 season this year, I’d still be shocked if he beats $110M guaranteed. How many AL teams, besides the white sox, are willing to pay that kind of money that don’t already have the DH slot covered?

Hey I'm on your side. I wasn't throwing around $210M.

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16 hours ago, YouGottaBeBleepingMe said:

If the White Sox are going to pay premium salary, they should get a premium player.

That was why they should have signed Machado or Harper. Guys who, even if you gave them a large and lengthy contract, were going to give you their first ballot HOF prime years. So what if you gave them 1-2 years at an inflated salary? If you won big during those prime years, it would have been worth the invesmtent.

With Arenado already off of the board, I would save my money and make a huge offer in a few years to Mike Trout, Kris Bryant, Mookie Betts, or Alex Bregman. Sure, you have to outbid large market teams with deep pockets. Sure, it would need to be in the same realm as Harper or Machado. Yet, those are the players you pay that kind of money to. Not an aging guy like JD Martinez. That was why Hahn and Kenny royally f***** up this off-season.

Lol at first ballot HOF years.

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19 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Even with a repeat of his 2018 season this year, I’d still be shocked if he beats $110M guaranteed. How many AL teams, besides the white sox, are willing to pay that kind of money that don’t already have the DH slot covered?

He did play 57 games in the OF last year in addition to his 93 at DH.  

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What middle tier relief pitchers are available next offseason? Because realistically, all the Sox are going to get are RP on short term deals that are going to be flippable at the deadline due to being a 90 loss team again. Can’t wait to see tweets saying Rick Hahn is a genius for acquiring more Ryan Cordell’s

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44 minutes ago, Whitesoxa6 said:

What middle tier relief pitchers are available next offseason? Because realistically, all the Sox are going to get are RP on short term deals that are going to be flippable at the deadline due to being a 90 loss team again. Can’t wait to see tweets saying Rick Hahn is a genius for acquiring more Ryan Cordell’s

Lol...we didn’t miss out on any free agents because we were a 90 loss team, we lost out because we weren’t willing to pay market prices for stars.  That’s a far worse problem too.

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2 hours ago, Whitesoxa6 said:

What middle tier relief pitchers are available next offseason? Because realistically, all the Sox are going to get are RP on short term deals that are going to be flippable at the deadline due to being a 90 loss team again. Can’t wait to see tweets saying Rick Hahn is a genius for acquiring more Ryan Cordell’s

I'd settle for acquiring some middle tier posters.

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Not sure I will ever bother with a FA wishlist again. Hahn and company will definitely have to blow me away with some shrewd moves before I have any hope in them again. I still can’t shake this disappointing off season for the life of me. I would really like to be excited as I usually am this time of year but it’s not there. I’m pissed off. 

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6 minutes ago, shipps said:

Not sure I will ever bother with a FA wishlist again. Hahn and company will definitely have to blow me away with some shrewd moves before I have any hope in them again. I still can’t shake this disappointing off season for the life of me. I would really like to be excited as I usually am this time of year but it’s not there. I’m pissed off. 

And it won’t get any better when you have to watch Jon Jay & Yonder Alonso in the starting lineup most days.

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3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

And it won’t get any better when you have to watch Jon Jay & Yonder Alonso in the starting lineup most days.

Those two might happen to work out fine actually but yeah it will still be a constant reminder of the embarrassing strategy. 

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1 hour ago, shipps said:

Not sure I will ever bother with a FA wishlist again. Hahn and company will definitely have to blow me away with some shrewd moves before I have any hope in them again. I still can’t shake this disappointing off season for the life of me. I would really like to be excited as I usually am this time of year but it’s not there. I’m pissed off. 

I think that most White Sox fans feel the same way. It will be curious how fans react to this team especially if the team gets off to a bad start.

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On 3/8/2019 at 12:34 PM, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

You still haven’t explained why his list of suitors and market will greatly improve from what he experienced last winter. I would be shocked if he exceeds $110 guaranteed.

We shall see. If he puts up another season like the last 2, he will be highly sought after next winter. Who will come forward? A team that wants to win ... like the Padres.

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