chw42 40 Report post Posted March 14 Holy shit. We're getting Eloy till he's 30! 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
caulfield12 659 Report post Posted March 14 CAN NO LONGER TRUST GOMEZ! JK, Hector. We still love you White Sox enthusiasm...you did your job, reported the ongoing/developing situation with Machado accurately until the final 10 days when everything changed. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jose Abreu 1,018 Report post Posted March 14 I'm sure it'll get brought up since he thought we'd land him, but Hector nailed our offer to Machado, well before the non-Passan guys had it. I think he's pretty connected. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Insp 73 Report post Posted March 14 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said: If true, very interesting that the team is throwing big money at a prospect who has yet to prove himself while Dallas Keuchel is still available for any team that wants to win. Apparently, the Sox are not in that category. Edited March 14 by Insp Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ChiliIrishHammock24 543 Report post Posted March 14 I need someone smart from Fangraphs to let me know how much surplus value this gives the Sox if Eloy ends up being a solid guy. Meanwhile, I assume this means he makes the roster on Opening Day, right? Scott Kingery, I believe is the last player who signed a deal while he was a minor leaguer and he made the major league team out of ST. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ChiliIrishHammock24 543 Report post Posted March 14 Also, funny enough, this would be the largest contract ever given out by the Sox.....and it's to a guy who has never played a major league game. 1 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jose Abreu 1,018 Report post Posted March 14 The one thing that's giving me some doubt is that Eloy was optioned to AAA today. I know it doesn't really matter much, but it would be kinda weird to option a guy and then sign him for $100 million less than 24 hours later Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ron883 440 Report post Posted March 14 I find it strange they are willing to commit 100m to a guy who has never played a game in the MLB, but they cheaped out on Machado and Bryce. Just really odd and not Sox like. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Insp 73 Report post Posted March 14 1 minute ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said: I need someone smart from Fangraphs to let me know how much surplus value this gives the Sox if Eloy ends up being a solid guy. Meanwhile, I assume this means he makes the roster on Opening Day, right? Scott Kingery, I believe is the last player who signed a deal while he was a minor leaguer and he made the major league team out of ST. You are assuming that he becomes a 'solid guy." What if he becomes just another one of Hahn's failures? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jenksycat 65 Report post Posted March 14 (edited) Seems extremely high for what would be arb + 1 extra year even if he is a superstar? Edited March 14 by jenksycat Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DirtySox 347 Report post Posted March 14 I would be okay with this. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
EvilJester99 194 Report post Posted March 14 “The money will be spent” 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
caulfield12 659 Report post Posted March 14 8 minutes ago, Insp said: You are assuming that he becomes a 'solid guy." What if he becomes just another one of Hahn's failures? White Sox are NOT cheap, they're now too generous to totally unproven players...THANK GOD they didn't sign Moncada to this type of deal at some point early in the 2017 minor league season when he was tearing up Charlotte. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
chw42 40 Report post Posted March 14 4 minutes ago, jenksycat said: Seems extremely high for what would be arb + 1 extra year even if he is a superstar? Now that I've thought about this...Yeah technically we'd get him for 7 years with 3 years of arbitration now that he won't start the year at the ML level. Even if he wins MVP, he's not gonna get more than 20 mil in arbitration. We'd basically be buying one extra year for at least $40 million. That makes no sense. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GermanSoxFan 596 Report post Posted March 14 (edited) 7 minutes ago, jenksycat said: Seems extremely high for what would be arb + 1 extra year even if he is a superstar? Anderson, even if we assume the team options get picked up, signed for 8/50. 100 million for a pre arb player is ridiculous. Edited March 14 by GermanSoxFan Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
fathom 1,944 Report post Posted March 14 1 minute ago, chw42 said: Now that I've thought about this...Yeah technically we'd get him for 7 years with 3 years of arbitration now that he won't start the year at the ML level. Even if he wins MVP, he's not gonna get more than 20 mil in arbitration. We'd basically be buying one extra year for at least $40 million. That makes no sense. Yeah this seems far too much. I wonder if there are some additional option years included? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Chisoxfn 131 Report post Posted March 14 Crazy. These numbers seem very high for a player who has yet to play a major league game. There has to be more years to it than just this (to ultimately get to the 100M). 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jose Abreu 1,018 Report post Posted March 14 Just now, chw42 said: Now that I've thought about this...Yeah technically we'd get him for 7 years with 3 years of arbitration now that he won't start the year at the ML level. Even if he wins MVP, he's not gonna get more than 20 mil in arbitration. We'd basically be buying one extra year for at least $40 million. That makes no sense. I feel like you might be undershooting on the arb figures a bit. Especially with inflation. Most estimates I've seen for a possible Eloy extension (thru 2025) are 7/70 or so. To make it 8/100 is just buying one year of FA at $30 million per those estimates, which is a lot, but honestly a risk I don't mind them taking given Eloy's ceiling and that it's just one year 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jenksycat 65 Report post Posted March 14 1 minute ago, GermanSoxFan said: Anderson, even if we assume the team options get picked up, signed for 8/50. 100 million for s pre arb player is ridiculous. Feels like a quick "shit ALL our fans hate us cause we're cheap & shitty at our jobs so lets try and drum up some excitement for this season" 3 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
fathom 1,944 Report post Posted March 14 So if this is true, what does the optioning to AAA mean? Can they just promote him tomorrow? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
chw42 40 Report post Posted March 14 1 minute ago, Jose Abreu said: I feel like you might be undershooting on the arb figures a bit. Especially with inflation. Most estimates I've seen for a possible Eloy extension (thru 2025) are 7/70 or so. To make it 8/100 is just buying one year of FA at $30 million per those estimates, which is a lot, but honestly a risk I don't mind them taking given Eloy's ceiling and that it's just one year That's still high. I mean, if he ends up being the 4 or 5 WAR player we think he can be, then the deal kind of pays for itself. But why do that when you can keep him for 7 years at something like $50 million? We'd be looking at paying 2 million for his first 4 years and then whatever the 3 years of arbitration pay out. Why take this big of a risk for an extra year at $30 million WHEN WE WEREN'T WILLING TO PAY THAT TO MANNY MACHADO?!?! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ChiliIrishHammock24 543 Report post Posted March 14 1 minute ago, jenksycat said: Seems extremely high for what would be arb + 1 extra year even if he is a superstar? Yeah, it really does. Nolan Arenado essentially earned $61.5M through the arb process. He actually signed a 2-year deal to avoid arb for his 1st and 2nd arb years, but then he went back to arb for his 3rd year. So using this structure, that 9th year would be at $38.5M. Of course, arb also keeps going up. So by the time Eloy gets there, maybe he's looking at something closer to $70M over that time? So maybe this 8th year would be at $30M, which could be realistic by that point. But either way, this sounds like it's going to put a lot of risk on the Sox that Eloy turns in to a stud, perennial All-Star. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jose Abreu 1,018 Report post Posted March 14 2 minutes ago, chw42 said: That's still high. I mean, if he ends up being the 4 or 5 WAR player we think he can be, then the deal kind of pays for itself. But why do that when you can keep him for 7 years at something like $50 million? We'd be looking at paying 2 million for his first 4 years and then whatever the 3 years of arbitration pay out. Why take this big of a risk for an extra year at $30 million WHEN WE WEREN'T WILLING TO PAY THAT TO MANNY MACHADO?!?! Yeah, that I definitely agree with. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
