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Eloy officially got paid


Jose Abreu
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6 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

 

If true, very interesting that the team is throwing big money at a prospect who has yet to prove himself while Dallas Keuchel is still available for any team that wants to win.  Apparently, the Sox are not in that category.

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I need someone smart from Fangraphs to let me know how much surplus value this gives the Sox if Eloy ends up being a solid guy.

Meanwhile, I assume this means he makes the roster on Opening Day, right? Scott Kingery, I believe is the last player who signed a deal while he was a minor leaguer and he made the major league team out of ST.

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1 minute ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

I need someone smart from Fangraphs to let me know how much surplus value this gives the Sox if Eloy ends up being a solid guy.

Meanwhile, I assume this means he makes the roster on Opening Day, right? Scott Kingery, I believe is the last player who signed a deal while he was a minor leaguer and he made the major league team out of ST.

You are assuming that he becomes a 'solid guy."  What if he becomes just another one of Hahn's failures?

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8 minutes ago, Insp said:

You are assuming that he becomes a 'solid guy."  What if he becomes just another one of Hahn's failures?

White Sox are NOT cheap, they're now too generous to totally unproven players...THANK GOD they didn't sign Moncada to this type of deal at some point early in the 2017 minor league season when he was tearing up Charlotte.

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4 minutes ago, jenksycat said:

Seems extremely high for what would be arb + 1 extra year even if he is a superstar?

Now that I've thought about this...Yeah technically we'd get him for 7 years with 3 years of arbitration now that he won't start the year at the ML level. Even if he wins MVP, he's not gonna get more than 20 mil in arbitration. We'd basically be buying one extra year for at least $40 million. That makes no sense. 

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1 minute ago, chw42 said:

Now that I've thought about this...Yeah technically we'd get him for 7 years with 3 years of arbitration now that he won't start the year at the ML level. Even if he wins MVP, he's not gonna get more than 20 mil in arbitration. We'd basically be buying one extra year for at least $40 million. That makes no sense. 

Yeah this seems far too much. I wonder if there are some additional option years included?

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Just now, chw42 said:

Now that I've thought about this...Yeah technically we'd get him for 7 years with 3 years of arbitration now that he won't start the year at the ML level. Even if he wins MVP, he's not gonna get more than 20 mil in arbitration. We'd basically be buying one extra year for at least $40 million. That makes no sense. 

I feel like you might be undershooting on the arb figures a bit. Especially with inflation. Most estimates I've seen for a possible Eloy extension (thru 2025) are 7/70 or so. To make it 8/100 is just buying one year of FA at $30 million per those estimates, which is a lot, but honestly a risk I don't mind them taking given Eloy's ceiling and that it's just one year 

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1 minute ago, GermanSoxFan said:

Anderson, even if we assume the team options get picked up, signed for 8/50. 100 million for s pre arb player is ridiculous.

Feels like a quick "shit ALL our fans hate us cause we're cheap & shitty at our jobs so lets try and drum up some excitement for this season"

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1 minute ago, Jose Abreu said:

I feel like you might be undershooting on the arb figures a bit. Especially with inflation. Most estimates I've seen for a possible Eloy extension (thru 2025) are 7/70 or so. To make it 8/100 is just buying one year of FA at $30 million per those estimates, which is a lot, but honestly a risk I don't mind them taking given Eloy's ceiling and that it's just one year 

That's still high. I mean, if he ends up being the 4 or 5 WAR player we think he can be, then the deal kind of pays for itself. But why do that when you can keep him for 7 years at something like $50 million? We'd be looking at paying 2 million for his first 4 years and then whatever the 3 years of arbitration pay out. Why take this big of a risk for an extra year at $30 million WHEN WE WEREN'T WILLING TO PAY THAT TO MANNY MACHADO?!?! 

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1 minute ago, jenksycat said:

Seems extremely high for what would be arb + 1 extra year even if he is a superstar?

Yeah, it really does. Nolan Arenado essentially earned $61.5M through the arb process. He actually signed a 2-year deal to avoid arb for his 1st and 2nd arb years, but then he went back to arb for his 3rd year. So using this structure, that 9th year would be at $38.5M. 

Of course, arb also keeps going up. So by the time Eloy gets there, maybe he's looking at something closer to $70M over that time? So maybe this 8th year would be at $30M, which could be realistic by that point.

But either way, this sounds like it's going to put a lot of risk on the Sox that Eloy turns in to a stud, perennial All-Star.

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2 minutes ago, chw42 said:

That's still high. I mean, if he ends up being the 4 or 5 WAR player we think he can be, then the deal kind of pays for itself. But why do that when you can keep him for 7 years at something like $50 million? We'd be looking at paying 2 million for his first 4 years and then whatever the 3 years of arbitration pay out. Why take this big of a risk for an extra year at $30 million WHEN WE WEREN'T WILLING TO PAY THAT TO MANNY MACHADO?!?! 

Yeah, that I definitely agree with. 

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  • Jose Abreu changed the title to Gomez and Passan confirm: Sox and Eloy nearing long-term deal

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