Eloy officially got paid

[caulfield12]

14 minutes ago, Insp said:

The problem is not so much that he's extended if he actually is, but the kind of big money that's being talked about.  That money could be better put to use on some of the quality of free agents who are still available.  Perhaps Dallas Keuchel is not the best option, but there are others who could really help this team particularly in pitching that could bring more people to the ballpark and raise money for next season, not too mention give the fans hope that a team turnaround really is in the offing. 

Perhaps Eloy really is the hot bat that you think he is, but he should first demonstrate it at the major league level before there's any talk of big money headed his way.

Who?

There are ten hitters and basically Porcello, Wheeler, Bumgarner, Wood, Wacha, maybe Archer...

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/potential-2020-free-agents/

Plus, some of those pitchers already signed extensions, like Mikolas with StL.  It’s a lot of blahhhh after the Top 7-8 guys.  No chance at Sale, Verlander or Gerrit Cole.

[southsider2k5]

7 hours ago, wrathofhahn said:

Rays just signed last years cy young winner for 5 years 50 million (already two years in) plus a FA option.

We overpaid.

No.  Different years. Different contracts.

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, Insp said:

The problem is not so much that he's extended if he actually is, but the kind of big money that's being talked about.  That money could be better put to use on some of the quality of free agents who are still available.  Perhaps Dallas Keuchel is not the best option, but there are others who could really help this team particularly in pitching that could bring more people to the ballpark and raise money for next season, not too mention give the fans hope that a team turnaround really is in the offing. 

Perhaps Eloy really is the hot bat that you think he is, but he should first demonstrate it at the major league level before there's any talk of big money headed his way.

I didn't think you could make this worse, but bravo.

This deal does absolutely nothing to prevent the team from signing anyone else, in fact quite the opposite. This deal in 2019 gives Eloy something like $5 million, and less in 2020 after the signing bonus is paid out.

[Chicago White Sox]

I’m not upset about this extension, but this Rosenthal commentary pretty much sums up why this is definitely an overpay on the Sox’s part:

Quote

Jiménez, meanwhile, received by far the largest deal ever for a player with no service time who already was in a major-league organization (as opposed to an international signee).

Take away the $2 million or so Jiménez might have earned as a 0-to-3 player, and his guarantee is still higher than the $39.7 million Rendon received in four years of arbitration and the $32.5 million Manny Machado received in three. One rival agent reacted by saying the reported numbers on Jiménez “cannot possibly be right,” adding, “The White Sox must think he is going to be a super, super, superstar.”

But this disparity, too, bears further exploration.

Rendon’s and Machado’s earnings in arbitration were compromised by injuries they suffered early in their careers. And the market for top-end, first-time-eligible position players has changed markedly in the past two years, with Kris Bryant getting $10.85 million and Mookie Betts $10.5 million in 2018, and Francisco Lindor $10.55 million in ‘19.

If Jiménez develops into that caliber of player, he would have earned far more than $43 million in arbitration. But his contract, negotiated by Nelson Montes of Rep1 Baseball, still qualifies as a substantial step forward for the players; Scott Kingery’s $24 million deal was the previous record for a player with no service time who already been in a major-league organization.

The two option years in Jiménez’s deal, valued at $16.5 million and $18.5 million, will be considered quite low if the outfielder becomes a major star. Then again, Jiménez effectively gave up only one free-agent year, not two. Without the deal, he would have started the season in Triple A and stayed down until at least the point when the White Sox would have controlled him for seven years. He might have even stayed in the minors long enough to lose an extra year of arbitration.

 

[Moan4Yoan]

I think I said this earlier but Kris Bryant will earn a total of around $70 to $75 million via salary arbitration year after year before he hits free agency.  The Sox are definitely expecting Eloy to be a star.  If he becomes one, it will be a good deal.  If he doesn’t, it won’t be a very good deal.  But the money won’t kill them either way.  The Sox are obviously very concerned with risk and they are comfortable with giving out this type of money (see Luis Robert contract) but obviously not $300 million guaranteed.

Edited March 22, 2019 by Harper2Sox

[southsider2k5]

13 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’m not upset about this extension, but this Rosenthal commentary pretty much sums up why this is definitely an overpay on the Sox’s part:

 

That post makes a great commentary as to why it isn't either.  Arenado last arb year was worth $26 million.  He demonstrated what even 4th year salaries are doing. The free agent year is paying about half of what a top young free agent is worth now. 

They are paying a little more early to save a lot at the end. They could be saving $30 to $50 million over the life of this deal.

[Chicago White Sox]

25 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

That post makes a great commentary as to why it isn't either.  Arenado last arb year was worth $26 million.  He demonstrated what even 4th year salaries are doing. The free agent year is paying about half of what a top young free agent is worth now. 

They are paying a little more early to save a lot at the end. They could be saving $30 to $50 million over the life of this deal.

Like I said, I’m not upset about this, but they are essentially giving him guaranteed money that assumes he’s one of the best young players in all of baseball (very little potential savings there vs. what he’d likely get via arbitration) in exchange for one free agent year at a potentially moderate discount.  I’m not sure where you’re getting $30M to $50M in potential savings here as we’re basically prepaying for star production.

[ChiSox59]

15 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Like I said, I’m not upset about this, but they are essentially giving him guaranteed money that assumes he’s one of the best young players in all of baseball (very little potential savings there vs. what he’d likely get via arbitration) in exchange for one free agent year at a potentially moderate discount.  I’m not sure where you’re getting $30M to $50M in potential savings here as we’re basically prepaying for star production.

What he is saying is that if Eloy becomes a star, it’s quite possible his last 3 arb years would have been something like $10M, $16M, $24M. Obviously the Sox will be paying something far less during the season like $7.5M, $9M, and $11.5M during those seasons, and then have 2 options that should be well below market value (if he turns into a star). 

There is definitely some upside, but in order for to a be a great contract for the Sox, Eloy has to become one of the best 5 hitters in the game. I do also agree with you that they’re paying him a lot more early for potential big savings on the 6th season and the two options.

[caulfield12]

Leave it to the White Sox to set a precedent for a player (granted #3 MILB) who has never set foot on a major league diamond while eschewing Machado and Harper...

[Y2Jimmy0]

The last few pages of this thread are puzzling to me. The deal hasn't been officially announced yet for whatever reason but it's happening. Passan and Rosenthal are the goods and Rosenthal has the details. It's happening. No need to question the veracity of the reports. The deal is also a no brainer for both parties. Eloy gets $43 million and likely $77 million. It's also a great deal for the Sox. If he's a bust which is super unlikely, they only lose $43 million. If he's great, it's an absolute bargain. If he's just good, then the contract is probably fair. This deal wasn't happening "after" Eloy played in the majors. Making him "prove it" in the big leagues first wasn't an option in this case. It also only gives the Sox one extra year of control but buying out the arbitration years is very valuable. Eloy was going to qualify for Super Two status. This means he would have had 3 league minimum years followed by 4 arbitration years. He was likely to receive $50-$60 million through the arb process if he's what everyone thinks he is. The Sox are "overpaying" in the beginning to get a favorable deal in the backend and gambling on the upside to do so. I've seen his "horrible defense" referenced. That's just not true at all. He's not a great defender but he's fine. He'll be a LF because he doesn't really have the arm for RF but his defensive ineptitude is getting very much overblown. 

The White Sox are about to lock up a 22 year old slugger that very likely will be a star for the majority of his contract. There really is no reason to be complaining about this. 

[OmarComing25]

I don't really mind the Sox setting a precedent for paying younger guys more, which should be happening anyway.

[TaylorStSox]

Hasn't this been the Sox m.o. anyway? They did the same thing with Sale, Anderson and Q, right? What's the big deal?

[caulfield12]

20 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

The last few pages of this thread are puzzling to me. The deal hasn't been officially announced yet for whatever reason but it's happening. Passan and Rosenthal are the goods and Rosenthal has the details. It's happening. No need to question the veracity of the reports. The deal is also a no brainer for both parties. Eloy gets $43 million and likely $77 million. It's also a great deal for the Sox. If he's a bust which is super unlikely, they only lose $43 million. If he's great, it's an absolute bargain. If he's just good, then the contract is probably fair. This deal wasn't happening "after" Eloy played in the majors. Making him "prove it" in the big leagues first wasn't an option in this case. It also only gives the Sox one extra year of control but buying out the arbitration years is very valuable. Eloy was going to qualify for Super Two status. This means he would have had 3 league minimum years followed by 4 arbitration years. He was likely to receive $50-$60 million through the arb process if he's what everyone thinks he is. The Sox are "overpaying" in the beginning to get a favorable deal in the backend and gambling on the upside to do so. I've seen his "horrible defense" referenced. That's just not true at all. He's not a great defender but he's fine. He'll be a LF because he doesn't really have the arm for RF but his defensive ineptitude is getting very much overblown. 

The White Sox are about to lock up a 22 year old slugger that very likely will be a star for the majority of his contract. There really is no reason to be complaining about this. 

You’re assuming he’s at minimum an 825-850 ops guy right off the bat...by say the deal wasn’t happening “after.”

Would the White Sox offer the equivalent contract to Moncada (to buy out one FA year) after his 2017/18 results?  Or less than what they’re willing to give Eloy?

The problem here is that Moncada and Robert have much less incentive to extend because of their initial record-setting contracts...and Kopech/Cease are way too risky with TJS surgeries in their histories.

[caulfield12]

7 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

Hasn't this been the Sox m.o. anyway? They did the same thing with Sale, Anderson and Q, right? What's the big deal?

They were not awarded before those players were firmly established at the big league level...even Trout wasn’t extended until after two years of results to first assess.

Edited March 22, 2019 by caulfield12

[TaylorStSox]

Just now, caulfield12 said:

They were not awarded before those players were firmly established at the big league level...even Trout wasn’t extended until after two years of results to assess.

I thought you ignored me. I have to work on that. 

[Buehrle>Wood]

3 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

Hasn't this been the Sox m.o. anyway? They did the same thing with Sale, Anderson and Q, right? What's the big deal?

At least two of the those were franchise changing moves so I'd say yeah big deal

[TaylorStSox]

4 minutes ago, Buehrle>Wood said:

At least two of the those were franchise changing moves so I'd say yeah big deal

I mean that's its not really an outlier for the organization so I'm not sure why people are making a big deal of it. 

[southsider2k5]

48 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

What he is saying is that if Eloy becomes a star, it’s quite possible his last 3 arb years would have been something like $10M, $16M, $24M. Obviously the Sox will be paying something far less during the season like $7.5M, $9M, and $11.5M during those seasons, and then have 2 options that should be well below market value (if he turns into a star). 

There is definitely some upside, but in order for to a be a great contract for the Sox, Eloy has to become one of the best 5 hitters in the game. I do also agree with you that they’re paying him a lot more early for potential big savings on the 6th season and the two options.

This.

For example, using the numbers above, none of which are records, but high end dollars TODAY, and not accounting for any inflation in 4 seasons.

'22 getting $7.5, could be $10m= $2.5m savings

'23 9m/16m = 7m

'24 11.5m/24 = $12.5m

'25 16.5m/25m = 8.5m

'26 18.5m/25m= 6.5m

Total saved in this scenario is $37.5 million on the end years.  If you push his free agent years into the $30m range, based off thinking he will be a stage below Arenado and Trout, that pushes the savings to $47.5 million.  If we get some wage inflation that pushes a free agent deal for him into the $35 million range, we are talking about nearly $60 million in savings.

[southsider2k5]

18 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

They were not awarded before those players were firmly established at the big league level...even Trout wasn’t extended until after two years of results to first assess.

And he got a 6/144 at that point, not a 6/43, and not a 8/75.

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, Harper2Sox said:

I think I said this earlier but Kris Bryant will earn a total of around $70 to $75 million via salary arbitration year after year before he hits free agency.  The Sox are definitely expecting Eloy to be a star.  If he becomes one, it will be a good deal.  If he doesn’t, it won’t be a very good deal.  But the money won’t kill them either way.  The Sox are obviously very concerned with risk and they are comfortable with giving out this type of money (see Luis Robert contract) but obviously not $300 million guaranteed.

The Sox are going to pay Eloy $43 million for the same years that the Cubs will give Bryant $70 to $75 million for.

[caulfield12]

23 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

I thought you ignored me. I have to work on that. 

No, I wrote that I have never ignored or blocked someone, not even NCRGBL back over a decade ago...

[wrathofhahn]

3 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

No.  Different years. Different contracts.

Actually no it's pretty much the same Snell signed 5/50 into his 7th year of control. He made the minimum prior 558K.  So it's basically 8/52

Jimenez will make 6/43 + 16.5 option + 18.5 option it becomes 8/78. We paid more for a player far less accomplished.

Edit; It was pointed out to me there was no option in Snells contract (media report which I got the information initially from got it wrong thanks for the correction) which makes it even worse.

Edited March 22, 2019 by wrathofhahn

[bmags]

8 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

And he got a 6/144 at that point, not a 6/43, and not a 8/75.

I like the deal for both sides, but I do think this undercounts the risk from the sox side in guaranteeing the next 6 years.

After 2 years, the angels had an (runner up) MVP on their hands. They leveraged their 4 years of control to get 2 additional manageable years.

The sox have...hopefully something good, but something volatile and maybe something that becomes a dH which would really hurt arb.

It's still worthwhile to do, but this is just a fair deal, if he's awesome it's a good deal, but we would have had him for 6 years at a similar total cost anyway.

[bmags]

2 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

Actually no it's pretty much the same Snell signed 5/50 into his 7th year of control plus one option year. He made the minimum prior 558K.  So it's basically 7/51

Jimenez will make 6/43 + 16.5 option it becomes 7/59.5. We paid more for a player far less accomplished.

Yes though it has seemed like pitchers are getting much less in these pre-lock-up years likely due to greater injury risk.

[southsider2k5]

Just now, bmags said:

I like the deal for both sides, but I do think this undercounts the risk from the sox side in guaranteeing the next 6 years.

After 2 years, the angels had an (runner up) MVP on their hands. They leveraged their 4 years of control to get 2 additional manageable years.

The sox have...hopefully something good, but something volatile and maybe something that becomes a dH which would really hurt arb.

It's still worthwhile to do, but this is just a fair deal, if he's awesome it's a good deal, but we would have had him for 6 years at a similar total cost anyway.

And the Angels paid an extra $70 million for waiting versus what this deal covers.  It is the poster child for getting a deal like this done as soon as possible.