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Gomez: Sox, Eloy nearing $100 million extension

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6 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Entirely different bidding circumstances and Lat Am signing pool consequences for a player at Robert's age.

Sure. The Jimenez money is spread out over 6 to 8 years. Robert was 2.

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3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Sure. The Jimenez money is spread out over 6 to 8 years. Robert was 2.

Why so much money if Jimenez’s fWAR is always going to be limited to the 3.5-4.5 range but Machado could easily come close to doubling that production and is a completely proven commodity?

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13 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

No it isn't dick. 

It is not honoring the contract in good faith. As I said, evaluation from organizations is subjective so collusion is hard to prove but it certainly is not written in there the way you are claiming.

They are clearly exploiting the service time rules which is not acting in good faith. The fact that players cant prove intent absolutely doesnt mean the front office is following the rules. 

Sure it is. It's the service time rules. No team has been punished for doing it. and the White Sox are hardly the first team to do it, and probably not the last. If you hired an accountant to do you taxes and he or she came up with a perfectly legal  loophole that would make you pay nothing, would you be praising them or telling them they are criminal? 

They are taking advantage of the rules. Just like players take advantage of anything they can. The White Sox supposedly tried to negotiate with Eloy last year. Now this rumor this year. So he has his options. If he doesn't want to take the money, he can spend a couple of weeks in Charlotte. With how the rules are in place, and the current state of the team, doing anything other than what they are doing with him would be dumb. 

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13 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Why so much money if Jimenez’s fWAR is always going to be limited to the 3.5-4.5 range but Machado could easily come close to doubling that production and is a completely proven commodity?

How did Bryce Harper put up a 10 WAR corner OF season?

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45 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Yeah, I think you need two option years.  I’m hoping Hector misunderstood and the extension is for the eight years following this season.  Something like the following structure would be worthwhile for the Sox:

  • 2019: $500K (current deal)
  • 2020: $1.5M
  • 2021: $3.0M
  • 2022: $8.0M
  • 2023: $10.0M
  • 2024: $13.0M
  • 2025: $17.0M
  • 2026: $21.0M (club option)
  • 2027: $26.0M (club option)

The guaranteed money shakes out to be ~$53M over the seven years of control we already have him for (~2x the guarantee Tim got), but comes with comes with two not-cheap club options that allow us to control him through his age 30 season.  

Honestly, if it’s not something like the above and we only get one option, I’ll go on record and say it is too player friendly.  I get how valuable even one option year is, but we’re practically assuming he’s Kris Bryant otherwise and given Eloy’s defensive limitations that seems a bit silly.  I wouldn’t be outraged by it, but it would support the idea our front office is not very good or is operating with another agenda in mind.

I think he turns that down personally. He'll make more than that just playing out the arb process. 

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So a few things here: 

I don't think the 8/100 offer makes sense for Eloy at this stage. People are prematurely disregarding the cost certainty for the club though. It may look like an overpay if potential isn't reached but if they truly feel like Eloy will be a superstar, then 8/100 is a bargain. I'm shocked that more people wouldn't be on board. He'd start with the club immediately and get 8 years of control instead of 7. I would think the White Sox would prefer options in 2027 and 2028 but there's no incentive for the player to sign up to hit free agency in his early thirties at this point. 

Also, I've seen misinformation about Eloy's timeline. Since he's on the 40-man roster, he needs to spend 20 days in the minors or else he accrues a major league season. On April 20th, the Sox are in the midst of a long road trip. We won't see Eloy debut until the Tigers series at home on 4/26-4/28. 

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44 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

How did Bryce Harper put up a 10 WAR corner OF season?

Probably by striking out at a much closer rate to his walks, for one.

In the minors, 59 bb vs. 87 k’s.   Jimenez is 117 vs. 310, for one.  

In 2014 and 15, his walk and k rates were very similar, in fact.  In his 9.3 season, 77.7 offense vs. -10.2 defensively.

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18 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Probably by striking out at a much closer rate to his walks, for one.

In the minors, 59 bb vs. 87 k’s.   Jimenez is 117 vs. 310, for one.  

In 2014 and 15, his walk and k rates were very similar, in fact.  In his 9.3 season, 77.7 offense vs. -10.2 defensively.

To cut through the gobbledygook, if Jiminez is one of the best hitters in the league he can readily be worth more than your 3-5 WAR "limit".

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9 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

To cut through the gobbledygook, if Jiminez is one of the best hitters in the league he can readily be worth more than your 3-5 WAR "limit".

Except he’s likely to be worse than Harper defensively and won’t pick up many assists either, which is how Avi made his defensive stats look much better than the overall reality of Avi in RF taking terrible routes and getting bad or late jumps.

Who are these hitters with more than -10 defense who still ended up with 5+ fWAR numbers?

Edited by caulfield12

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Just now, caulfield12 said:

Except he’s likely to be worse than Harper defensively and won’t pick up many assists either, which is how Avi made his defensive stats look much better than the overall reality of Avi in RF taking terrible routes and getting bad or late jumps.

And yet in your line of stats you showed that Bryce Harper was the 4th worst right fielder in the league that year but still put up a 10 win season. You can't have it both ways sir, you quoted the stats yourself.

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1 hour ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

I think he turns that down personally. He'll make more than that just playing out the arb process. 

I got to disagree here.  Nolan Arenado would have made roughly $50M to $55M over his seven years of team control had he competed the arbitration process this year.  Josh Donaldson, a top 3 player in all of baseball and former MVP, made ~$57M in his seven controllable seasons.  Kris Bryant, one of the most impactful young players and a former MVP winner, will have made $26M over his first five years of team control.  If he can return to superstar form, he can probably beat the $52M guarantee I put together for Eloy by ~$15M or do (and that’s far from a guarantee).

The point here is a $52M commitment is basically assuming Eloy is a top 10 player from the get-go.  While that’s more than possible, he’ll need to hit like JD Martinez to get there because his defense will be non value add at best.  For Eloy to lock that in prior to ever playing a pro game would be a huge coup for him IMO.  Whether that’s worth sacrificing two free agency seasons is up for debate, but I simply can’t agree he’d be likely out-earn than $52M, especially when you consider his history of minor health issues.

Edited by Chicago White Sox
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5 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I got to disagree here.  Nolan Arenado would have made roughly $50M to $55M over his seven years of team control had he competed the arbitration process this year.  Josh Donaldson, a top 3 player in all of baseball and MVP, made ~$57M in his seven controllable seasons.  Kris Bryant, one of the most impactful young players and a former MVP winner, will have made $26M over his first five years of team control.  If he can return to superstar form, he can probably beat the $52M guarantee I put together for Eloy by ~$15M or do (and that’s far from a guarantee).

The point here is a $52M commitment is basically assuming Eloy is a top 10 player from the get-go.  While that’s more than possible, he’ll need to hit like JD Martinez to get there because his defense will be non value add at best.  For Eloy to lock that in prior to ever playing a pro game would be a huge coup for him IMO.  Whether that’s worth sacrificing two free agency seasons is up for debate, but I simply can’t agree he’d be likely out-earn than $52M, especially when you consider his history of minor health issues.

Your deal works in the sense that he's making real money over the first three years. I can't see him locking in 2026 and beyond though. If everything goes right he's looking at 3 minimum salary years and then 4 years of arb where he could make $55-$60 million over that period. If he's making $5 million in ARB1 which is possible, he could make $12 million, $18 million and $23-$25 million in years 2-4. I might be a little high on the totals but I wouldn't lock myself into two years on the back end for that deal. 

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2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

And yet in your line of stats you showed that Bryce Harper was the 4th worst right fielder in the league that year but still put up a 10 win season. You can't have it both ways sir, you quoted the stats yourself.

Let’s try it this way.

JD Martinez, 50.3, -14.7, 5.9

Paul Goldschmidt, 40, -12, 5.1

Two pulled off this feat, and one was barely over 5.

 

Brandon Nimmo and Matt Carpenter come close, but their defense wasn’t close to being a -10, either.  And they were 4.5 and 5.

Haniger would be the other at 4.6, so there aren’t any obvious parallels besides Eloy having to hit like JDM to be around 6.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=19,d

 

So one of five great offensive players in all of baseball...and having to equal JD Martinez.  Not a high bar or standard, at all.

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5 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Let’s try it this way.

JD Martinez, 50.3, -14.7, 5.9

Paul Goldschmidt, 40, -12, 5.1

Two pulled off this feat, and one was barely over 5.

 

Brandon Nimmo and Matt Carpenter come close, but their defense wasn’t close to being a -10, either.  And they were 4.5 and 5.

Haniger would be the other at 4.6, so there aren’t any obvious parallels besides Eloy having to hit like JDM to be around 6.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=19,d

 

So one of five great offensive players in all of baseball...and having to equal JD Martinez.  Not a high bar or standard, at all.

And yet you said  "if Jimenez’s fWAR is always going to be limited to the 3.5-4.5 range", so now by getting you to list players you've listed multiple players who clearly beat the range you set.

Ergo, your initial statement is wrong. Thank you.

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16 hours ago, mqr said:

So what? He called attention to the problem without biting the hand that feeds him. Don't see it worthwhile to take personally. 

I don't see it worthwhile to take personally either.

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1 hour ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

 

Also, I've seen misinformation about Eloy's timeline. Since he's on the 40-man roster, he needs to spend 20 days in the minors or else he accrues a major league season. On April 20th, the Sox are in the midst of a long road trip. We won't see Eloy debut until the Tigers series at home on 4/26-4/28. 

So he would be more qualified to come up April 12 or 15 if he wasn’t on the 40-man, and it's a little different than the Bryant situation a few years ago? Interesting. Did not know that. 

So the season starts March 28, then the 20th day of the season is April 16. He could play April 17 before hitting the road against two weaker teams- Tigers and Orioles. 

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2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Why so much money if Jimenez’s fWAR is always going to be limited to the 3.5-4.5 range but Machado could easily come close to doubling that production and is a completely proven commodity?

It isn't "so much money".  It will be a fraction of Machado money, it will cover a shorter time period, less than half of it will be guaranteed, and it will only cover a couple of free agent years.  But other than that, it is totally a similar comparison.

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7 minutes ago, mqr said:

At this point I would say 0% chance this gets done for opening day.

If there was, he wouldn't have been sent down.

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I was trying to think of weird deal structures where the total money is over 100 but that's with escalators like MVPs and stuff, and maybe a swellopt that sox have to trigger pre arb years and are quite expensive for the extended years but I think it's more likely this was floated from jimenez' side?

 

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1 minute ago, bmags said:

I was trying to think of weird deal structures where the total money is over 100 but that's with escalators like MVPs and stuff, and maybe a swellopt that sox have to trigger pre arb years and are quite expensive for the extended years but I think it's more likely this was floated from jimenez' side?

 

It doesn't have to be a weird structure in a deal like this.  A six year deal with ~$40 million over that time, and a couple of big options on the end ($30ish) fits the whole 8/100 part while also giving the Sox some savings and leeway on this plays out in years 7 and 8.  This is exactly how they did the Eaton/Sale/Anderson/Quintana/Santos deals, and I would say about a 3 standard deviation chance of this being the structure.

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2 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

So a few things here: 

I don't think the 8/100 offer makes sense for Eloy at this stage. People are prematurely disregarding the cost certainty for the club though. It may look like an overpay if potential isn't reached but if they truly feel like Eloy will be a superstar, then 8/100 is a bargain. I'm shocked that more people wouldn't be on board. He'd start with the club immediately and get 8 years of control instead of 7. I would think the White Sox would prefer options in 2027 and 2028 but there's no incentive for the player to sign up to hit free agency in his early thirties at this point. 

Also, I've seen misinformation about Eloy's timeline. Since he's on the 40-man roster, he needs to spend 20 days in the minors or else he accrues a major league season. On April 20th, the Sox are in the midst of a long road trip. We won't see Eloy debut until the Tigers series at home on 4/26-4/28. 

Worst case the Sox will still control Eloy for the next seven seasons. I'm not at all worried about an extension until he proves himself at the mlb level + remains healthy. 

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31 minutes ago, flavum said:

So he would be more qualified to come up April 12 or 15 if he wasn’t on the 40-man, and it's a little different than the Bryant situation a few years ago? Interesting. Did not know that. 

So the season starts March 28, then the 20th day of the season is April 16. He could play April 17 before hitting the road against two weaker teams- Tigers and Orioles. 

The minor league season does not start on March 28th though. That's the issue. I would expect him to debut on Friday April 26th vs Detroit. 

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6 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

It doesn't have to be a weird structure in a deal like this.  A six year deal with ~$40 million over that time, and a couple of big options on the end ($30ish) fits the whole 8/100 part while also giving the Sox some savings and leeway on this plays out in years 7 and 8.  This is exactly how they did the Eaton/Sale/Anderson/Quintana/Santos deals, and I would say about a 3 standard deviation chance of this being the structure.

I just have a hard time believing Sox do that pre any mlb at bats. If it was after year 1 I get it. It seems remarkably risky.

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3 minutes ago, bmags said:

I just have a hard time believing Sox do that pre any mlb at bats. If it was after year 1 I get it. It seems remarkably risky.

They already tried last year.

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