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Luis Robert to Start Season in A+


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On 3/27/2019 at 7:25 PM, southsider2k5 said:

I am good with this.  No reason to rush him.  If he hits, you can always move him up.

I agree. While i understand the argument that he is an advanced college bat and not young he can still finish the season in high A, start 2020 in AA and be ready for 2021 if he is good enough. Maybe even a 2020 late call up but then he has to rake.

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13 minutes ago, dominik-keul@gmx.de said:

I agree. While i understand the argument that he is an advanced college bat and not young he can still finish the season in high A, start 2020 in AA and be ready for 2021 if he is good enough. Maybe even a 2020 late call up but then he has to rake.

But the odds of him ever playing a game for the White Sox are incredibly low with six better OF prospects ahead of him.  Therefore, all being conservative with his assignment does is suppress his value to teams potentially interested in him.

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16 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

But the odds of him ever playing a game for the White Sox are incredibly low with six better OF prospects ahead of him.  Therefore, all being conservative with his assignment does is suppress his value to teams potentially interested in him.

With six guys ahead of him, you can afford to take your time and make sure he is ready for each level. Big numbers are always going to impress more anyways.

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1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

With six guys ahead of him, you can afford to take your time and make sure he is ready for each level. Big numbers are always going to impress more anyways.

Gotta disagree here, just look at Luis Gonzalez.  Numbers wise he should be a top 100 prospect easily, but once you factor in age his performance is taken with a huge grain of salt and his trade value is impacted accordingly.  That might not be an issue for Gonzalez as he is closer to the majors than some of our other guys and we’ll likely need to give him an opportunity, but the odds are Walker will become a trade chip and we shouldn’t purposely be suppressing his value IMO.

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2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Gotta disagree here, just look at Luis Gonzalez.  Numbers wise he should be a top 100 prospect easily, but once you factor in age his performance is taken with a huge grain of salt and his trade value is impacted accordingly.  That might not be an issue for Gonzalez as he is closer to the majors than some of our other guys and we’ll likely need to give him an opportunity, but the odds are Walker will become a trade chip and we shouldn’t purposely be suppressing his value IMO.

I really think that our OF of the future is Jimenez, Gonzalez, and Rutherford.

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6 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Gotta disagree here, just look at Luis Gonzalez.  Numbers wise he should be a top 100 prospect easily, but once you factor in age his performance is taken with a huge grain of salt and his trade value is impacted accordingly.  That might not be an issue for Gonzalez as he is closer to the majors than some of our other guys and we’ll likely need to give him an opportunity, but the odds are Walker will become a trade chip and we shouldn’t purposely be suppressing his value IMO.

No, Gonzalez is not old for his levels. He's just outside the top 120 or so because his tools arent loud enough for some and some are uncertain about him in CF (I think those uncertainties are unfounded). 22 at high A is not old. 

If he throws up an 860 OPS between AA and AAA this year you'll see him on every top 100 list. Guys like him are forced to prove it more because he's solid across the board but not great anywhere. 

Also, let's worry about one OF prospect proving they belong first before we fill out all positions prematurely. The Sox arent exactly a team that should be worried or consider themselves to have an embarrassment of riches at any position.

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run
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5 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Gotta disagree here, just look at Luis Gonzalez.  Numbers wise he should be a top 100 prospect easily, but once you factor in age his performance is taken with a huge grain of salt and his trade value is impacted accordingly.  That might not be an issue for Gonzalez as he is closer to the majors than some of our other guys and we’ll likely need to give him an opportunity, but the odds are Walker will become a trade chip and we shouldn’t purposely be suppressing his value IMO.

This is a large over-reaction.  No one is suppressing his value.  If he responds out of the gate, he will move up quickly.  He isn't banished to Kannapolis.

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10 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The average age of someone at A+ is 22.5. AA is 23.8. 

Gonzalez is on the same path as plenty of prospects and is by no account old for his level. Average MLB debut is 24.5. Gonzalez is on that trajectory.

Those numbers are also inflated by org players. The MLB debut average age is inflated by the Scott Carrolls, Frank Schwindels, and Ryan Cordells of the world. I think it's perfectly fair to expect a prospect with any amount of helium to be ahead of that timeline. Merely a personal opinion here, but I want these guys to debut by 22-23, so we can control their age 23-29 seasons, roughly. And I'm a big fan of Gonzalez.

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5 minutes ago, The Sir said:

Those numbers are also inflated by org players. The MLB debut average age is inflated by the Scott Carrolls, Frank Schwindels, and Ryan Cordells of the world. I think it's perfectly fair to expect a prospect with any amount of helium to be ahead of that timeline. Merely a personal opinion here, but I want these guys to debut by 22-23, so we can control their age 23-29 seasons, roughly. And I'm a big fan of Gonzalez.

No they're not. AAA is where organizational players go. The average age of someone in AAA is 28. Every single player in high A is younger than 26. 

24.5 is the average age of a rookie. Expecting a college draftee to debut by 22 or 23 leaves pretty much zero developmental time and unless you're a huge draft pick you're not going to get moved up that fast regardless.

And no, there are thousands of MLB rookies. A few outliers are not inflating the number.

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run
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14 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

No, Gonzalez is not old for his levels. He's just outside the top 120 or so because his tools arent loud enough for some and some are uncertain about him in CF (I think those uncertainties are unfounded). 22 at high A is not old. 

If he throws up an 860 OPS between AA and AAA this year you'll see him on every top 100 list. Guys like him are forced to prove it more because he's solid across the board but not great anywhere. 

Also, let's worry about one OF prospect proving they belong first before we fill out all positions prematurely. The Sox arent exactly a team that should be worried or consider themselves to have an embarrassment of riches at any position.

Just outside the top 120 based on what rankings?  Regardless, you’re right about guys like Gonzalez & Walker needing to prove themselves against higher level competition, which is exactly why when Walker finishes the year as a 23 year old in High A, no matter how well he’s done the performance will be discounted.

And no, when you have six quality OF prospects (including one you just gave an unprecedented extension to) you should be able to bank on three of them becoming full time regulars.  If that doesn’t happen and we need Walker to fill in a spot, the rebuild has gone terribly wrong.  The reality is Walker will likely be a trade bait and we should not be conservative with his assignments.

 

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15 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

This is a large over-reaction.  No one is suppressing his value.  If he responds out of the gate, he will move up quickly.  He isn't banished to Kannapolis.

I don't think he is saying the team is suppressing his value to hurt him or anything like that, but that his trade value is suppressed as compared to if he were pushed to higher levels.

Look at it this way: regardless of how good he is and what that "trade value" should be, who is going to trade for an older player at the lower levels? Rebuilding teams will likely want younger players with higher upsides/longer time frames. Teams that are competing are going to want upper level talent that can quickly be plugged in to their ML roster. A college prospect at the lower levels without a huge upside doesn't really fit either of those categories and its impossible to fit one, but he does have the ability to fit the other. So, if this is a prospect that is not essential to your org and is unlikely to actually contribute to your ML team, it makes sense to push them if it will make them a more valuable asset.

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5 minutes ago, The Sir said:

Those numbers are also inflated by org players. The MLB debut average age is inflated by the Scott Carrolls, Frank Schwindels, and Ryan Cordells of the world. I think it's perfectly fair to expect a prospect with any amount of helium to be ahead of that timeline. Merely a personal opinion here, but I want these guys to debut by 22-23, so we can control their age 23-29 seasons, roughly. And I'm a big fan of Gonzalez.

It’s the problem with numbers, people can use them any which way to support their agenda.  If you focused on top 200 prospects, the average age per league would look very much different.

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