Harold's Leg Lift Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 Maybe he is different. He obviously has a special arm. Maybe he turns into Kerry Wood or Josh Beckett and if this were another year I would love to get a guy like this. I just think there will be better options available. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 33 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said: Maybe he is different. He obviously has a special arm. Maybe he turns into Kerry Wood or Josh Beckett and if this were another year I would love to get a guy like this. I just think there will be better options available. I'd also say that every year there has been a guy that the sox have been rumored to be all over and then they don't draft that guy. This year may be especially opaque given new head of draft plus insane circumstances. All of my favorites seemed to be locks for top 7 now so I have no idea. I think only college pitcher not especially into is Burns and BA had him way down so not that concerned anymore. It has felt like mlodzinski has the type of profile that sox like in pro pitchers, but who knows what they think with his shorter track record. Last thought, I know sox haven't been rumored around Abel at all but I still think it's possible just with their selection of dalquist, prior to that seemed like preps had to be in chicagoland area to get any notice from sox. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2Jimmy0 Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 34 minutes ago, bmags said: I'd also say that every year there has been a guy that the sox have been rumored to be all over and then they don't draft that guy. This year may be especially opaque given new head of draft plus insane circumstances. All of my favorites seemed to be locks for top 7 now so I have no idea. I think only college pitcher not especially into is Burns and BA had him way down so not that concerned anymore. It has felt like mlodzinski has the type of profile that sox like in pro pitchers, but who knows what they think with his shorter track record. Last thought, I know sox haven't been rumored around Abel at all but I still think it's possible just with their selection of dalquist, prior to that seemed like preps had to be in chicagoland area to get any notice from sox. Harold very likely has heard some other names than I am. This all shutdown so I'm basically in the dark. The 3 names that I heard the most consistently were Jared Kelley, Ed Howard and Reid Detmers. More recently I'd heard about Tanner Burns and they also have a strong link to the Oklahoma program so Cavalli wouldn't be a surprise. I didn't see a realistic path of Kelley making it to #11 but if the Padres pass on him, I think that's the path. Detmers won't be on the board at #11. Harold is right that taking a college starter is definitely safer but Kelley is as safe as it gets for the HS RHP profile. The concerns are valid though. Taking Howard might be tough to justify though unless it's a significant discount at this point. Should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flash Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 If 2021 season economics still fuzzy by time of draft, is it conceivable that teams way underslot or even forego drafting players unwilling to sign cheaply? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2Jimmy0 Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 58 minutes ago, Flash said: If 2021 season economics still fuzzy by time of draft, is it conceivable that teams way underslot or even forego drafting players unwilling to sign cheaply? I don't know why that would matter. Owners are only on the hook for $100K of the bonus in the first year under this agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flash Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 7 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said: I don't know why that would matter. Owners are only on the hook for $100K of the bonus in the first year under this agreement. To save money beyond this year if the revenue drivers, attendance, media contracts, etc. remain uncertain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harold's Leg Lift Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 11 hours ago, Flash said: If 2021 season economics still fuzzy by time of draft, is it conceivable that teams way underslot or even forego drafting players unwilling to sign cheaply? No. Teams still want talent in their system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 so BA now has CJ Van Eyck and Masyn Wynn around sox 2nd round pick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flash Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 1 hour ago, bmags said: so BA now has CJ Van Eyck and Masyn Wynn around sox 2nd round pick. Hoping Bryce Jarvis slips to WS in 2nd. Arguably top 10 stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dominikk85 Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 12 hours ago, Flash said: To save money beyond this year if the revenue drivers, attendance, media contracts, etc. remain uncertain. That would be extremely stupid long term because prospects are worth 4-5 times the amount of their bonus cost. Moncada got 40m while rutschman got like 9m, this should tell you how much a top prospect is really worth. Saving 5m in the draft means losing like 20-25m in surplus value that you have to buy on the open market then. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flash Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 9 minutes ago, Dominikk85 said: That would be extremely stupid long term because prospects are worth 4-5 times the amount of their bonus cost. Moncada got 40m while rutschman got like 9m, this should tell you how much a top prospect is really worth. Saving 5m in the draft means losing like 20-25m in surplus value that you have to buy on the open market then. Assuming no change to the underlying economic structure of MLB. That money is part of the expense burden that must be supported by revenue. It is not yet obvious if/when teams will have visibility to future revenue streams but they will no doubt be lower for some period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dominikk85 Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 I think revenue will be lower to zero in 2020 but in 2021 revenue will be almost normal again and then teams will need cheap talent. Sure teams will lose money in 2020 but the draft really isn't a lot of money plus 2020 they will only have to pay up to 100k anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flash Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 I hope you are right but absent development of vaccine, people will think twice about large gatherings, especially with seats so close together. Its a pessimistic view, but the game we all love might look different and teams might be forced to offset declining revenue by cutting costs, especially teams contractually locked into high payroll expense. Even if a vaccine is developed/approved by year-end, will people return to stadiums anytime soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DirtySox Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 (edited) 10 Rising Draft Prospects - BA https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2020-mlb-draft-10-rising-prospects-you-need-to-know/ Article about some dudes who have made big jumps since the start of the year. Will share some blurbs of the ones I find interesting. Quote Max Meyer: RHP, Minnesota Current Rank: 10 Preseason Rank: 30 Quote Pete Crow Armstrong: OF, Harvard-Westlake HS Current Rank: 17 Preseason Rank 24 Quote Bobby Miller: RHP, Louisville Current Rank: 28 Preseason Rank: 89 Why You Should Know Him: Miller was doing a tremendous job improving his draft stock early in the season, but how will scouting departments square big-time pure stuff and physicality with reliever risk? Miller is a fringe first round talent and in the second tier of college arms but has put together a pretty impressive resume in three years at Louisville. While there are some concerns about his delivery, his stuff, track record and size all seem like promising indicators. Scouting Report: Out of high school in 2017, Miller showed flashes of the pitcher he could become one day, touching 93-94 mph with a frame that indicated more in the tank as well as a breaking ball that showed above-average potential. Three years later and Miller has started to actualize the potential he showed as a teenager with McHenry (Ill.) High. Now standing 6-foot-5, 220 pounds, Miller entered the 2020 season as a full-time starter for the first time, though he did log plenty of innings (146.2) in a hybrid role in 2018 and 2019. Miller now has a fastball that gets up into the upper 90s consistently, with heavy, sinking life. He pairs that pitch with a hard slider in the upper 80s that can touch 90, a pitch that has flashed plus potential. He’s also got a mid-80s changeup that gives him a third solid pitch, and a curveball that’s fringier. For all of his size and the explosive pure stuff that he’s shown, some scouts wonder what his dominant swing-and-miss offering is going to be. There’s also some reliever risk with Miller, as his delivery and arm action aren’t the smoothest or cleanest, but he has done a nice job holding his stuff deep into his outings and improved his strike-throwing this season. After walking more than four batters per nine innings in 2019, some scouts have put above-average command on Miller. He was trending in the right direction prior to the season ending and fits somewhere at the back of the first or early in the second round after posting a 2.31 ERA in 23.1 innings and four starts as a junior. Quote Jordan Walker: 3B, Decatur HS Current Rank: 34 Preseason Rank: 43 Quote Dillon Dingler: C, Ohio St. Current Rank 37 Preseason Rank 93 Why You Should Know Him: Dingler fits the perfect mold of a player who jumps up boards. Teams are always looking for catchers, and because of the risk associated with high school catchers, college backstops routinely get pushed up the board. That means Dingler could find himself in the first round to a team who believe he will be above-average on both sides of the ball. He’s trended in the right direction with the bat throughout his Buckeye career and could become the highest-drafted player out of Ohio State since RHP Alex Wimmers, who went with the 21st pick to the Twins in 2010. Scouting Report: Dingler has been a regular in Ohio State’s lineup since he first set foot on campus in Columbus. As a freshman he showed impressive defensive versatility at two premium positions, playing both catcher and center field. He settled in as the team’s starting catcher during his sophomore season, and scouts believe in his catch-and-throw skills and athleticism behind the plate. A natural leader and a captain for the Buckeyes, Dingler has big league arm strength, and over 115 total games with Ohio State threw out 21 of the 42 (50 percent) runners who attempted to steal against him. He has a strong, 6-foot-3, 222-pound frame that would be durable enough to handle the grind of the position, and he’s more athletic than most backstops with that sort of size. Offensively, Dingler was just starting to tap into his potential, improving year over year. He improved his OPS from .701 as a freshman to .816 as a sophomore, and through 10 games in 2020 upped that mark to 1.164 with five home runs, a triple and four doubles through 35 at-bats. Dingler has always controlled the strike zone well throughout his Big 10 career (12.8 strikeout percentage, 11.6 walk percentage) but never really showed the ability to tap into his above-average raw power consistently in games. Some scouts believe he’s more of an ambush power hitter, who ran into his homers, and now without a full junior season to see if that is true, they’ll have to guess. With a strong offensive 2020 season, Dingler had the potential to go in the first two rounds. As it stands now he could go late on day one or early on day two. Quote Jared Jones: RHP, La Mirada Calif HS Current Rank: 39 Preseason Rank: 54 Jared Jones, RHP, La Mirada (Calif.) HS Current Rank: 39 Top 200 Rank: 54 Movement: +15 Why You Should Know Him: Jones is similar in some regards to Pete Crow-Armstrong. One of the more well-known and famous prospects entering the 2020 cycle thanks to his outlandish pure stuff and athleticism as an underclassmen, Jones was at one point thought to be one of the top 3-5 high school players in the class. While he hasn’t settled into quite that role, Jones has been better this spring than he was last summer, and started to improve what was previously erratic control this spring—a good sign for his development moving forward. High school pitchers standing just 6-foot-1 and throwing as hard as Jones does is a bit of a concern, but he could easily be one of the outliers like the previously mentioned Meyer appears to be. Scouting Report: Scouts pegged Jones as a future first-round pick as a high school sophomore, and he’s done little to dissuade that notion. A three-time member of USA Baseball’s junior national teams, Jones is a twitchy, explosive athlete who stars both on the mound and in the outfield. His tremendous arm speed generates lively mid-to-upper 90s fastballs, and his elite athleticism has helped him make adjustments to his delivery and gradually improve his command and control. Jones dominates with his fastball, but he flashes a sharp, above-average slider in the mid-80s and is developing his changeup. Jones is slightly undersized and has an effortful delivery, leading some evaluators to project him to the bullpen. His improving command and elite competitiveness lead others to believe he can start. Jones is an above-average runner who gets excellent jumps in the outfield and makes jaw-dropping throws, earning 80 grades on his arm. He flashes big power at the plate, but he’s a free swinger who scouts aren’t sure will make enough contact against better pitching. Jones has strong baseball bloodlines in addition to his talent. His father, Keith, was a 1997 draft pick of the Diamondbacks and played two seasons in the minors. His cousins Randy and Ron Flores both pitched in the majors, and Randy is currently the Cardinals' scouting director. Jones made the right strides with his command this spring to remain a first-round talent as a pitcher. He is committed to Texas. Quote Jared Shuster: LHP, Wake Forest Current Rank: 47 Preseason Rank: 168 Why You Should Know Him: Teams covet lefthanders, unsurprisingly, thanks to the difficulty of finding a quality lefthanded pitcher. In the last 10 years, teams have taken 47 lefthanded pitchers in the first round, with seven going in the 2014 draft (including Brady Aiken, Carlos Rodon, Kyle Freeland and Sean Newcomb). The fewest number of lefthanders in first round in that span is three, which happened in 2010, 2012 and 2015. Thanks to an injury to LHP Dax Fulton and LHP Nate Savino enrolling early at Virginia, the 2020 class has just three southpaws currently ranked in first round range: Texas A&M’s Asa Lacy, Louisville’s Reid Detmers and Tennessee’s Garrett Crochet. So it wouldn’t be particularly surprising to see Shuster shoot into the first this year given his improvement in stuff and control. His improvement is somewhat reminiscent of Virginia lefthander Daniel Lynch—who was drafted in the first round by the Royals in 2018—though Shuster’s velo gains occurred sooner than Lynch’s and their bodies aren’t particularly similar. Scouting Report: Shuster is one of the bigger rising pitchers in the 2020 class, and his ascension started with a strong summer in the Cape Cod League. The first thing to improve was his control. After walking more than five batters per nine innings over his first two seasons, Shuster showed dramatically better strike-throwing ability with Orleans, walking just five batters in 32 innings—a 1.41 per nine rate. Next came the fastball velocity. After mostly sitting in the 88-92 mph range, Shuster came out this spring with a fastball that got up to the 96-97 mph range from the left side. The dramatic improvement in both those areas vaulted him up into the second-to-third-round range and it wouldn’t be shocking for some scouts to have first-round grades on him. Lefties who throw 96-97 mph are rare enough, but Shuster has impressive starter traits to go along with that velocity, especially with his improved control. The 6-foot-3, 210-pound Wake Forest product has a plus changeup and a developing slider that could become an average pitch as well. The shortened season hurt Shuster’s ascension up draft boards, but after striking out 43 batters in 26.1 innings with just four walks and a 3.76 ERA, he likely already showed enough teams that his improvement was legit. Quote Enrique Bradford: OF, American Heritage HS Current Rank: 55 Preseason Rank: 65 Quote Landon Knack: RHP, East Tennessee State Current Rank: 113 Preseason Rank: Unranked Quote Nick Garcia: RHP, Chapman Current Rank: 63 Previous Rank: Unranked Edited April 21, 2020 by DirtySox Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DirtySox Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Shuster seems pretty intriguing to me if the Sox go the college pitching route after the 1st round. Wish I could have gotten a look at him during the shortened season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flash Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 Fangraphs/Eric L. just published revised prospect rankings with several interesting adjustments: Howard now 9 Detmers/15 Kjerstad/7 Pat Bailey/11 J Kelley/17 Abel/9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flash Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 Sorry, typo...Abel is 8. He talks about his concerns that Detmers stuff and particularly his looping curveball won't be as effective against pro hitters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jose Abreu Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 On 4/13/2020 at 12:37 PM, ChiSoxJon said: Kjerstad at 11 please Mayo has that in his mock https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-pipeline-2020-mlb-mock-draft?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flash Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 Would have to consider Abel if he's there at 11, same with Meyer, otherwise I'd try to underslot Howard. Of course Howard might be gone as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harold's Leg Lift Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 That's a loud bullpen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2Jimmy0 Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 10 hours ago, Jose Abreu said: Mayo has that in his mock https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-pipeline-2020-mlb-mock-draft?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage I'd be pretty surprised by this. I hadn't heard them on many college bats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 I think mocks are going to be way off this draft. I'd imagine with less game tape teams are going to be diving deeper into their own process and less willing to discuss their rankings than typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 13 minutes ago, bmags said: I think mocks are going to be way off this draft. I'd imagine with less game tape teams are going to be diving deeper into their own process and less willing to discuss their rankings than typical. This draft is going to be all about how much you trust your scouts at its core. Think about how little cross-checking is going to happen. A guy like Kenny Williams isn't going to be on the road to check out the final few selections. It will also be interesting to see how much the willingness to negotiate down from slot weighs in this draft for individual players as in a shortened draft, one player holds a lot more weight than the would in a normal draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said: This draft is going to be all about how much you trust your scouts at its core. Think about how little cross-checking is going to happen. A guy like Kenny Williams isn't going to be on the road to check out the final few selections. It will also be interesting to see how much the willingness to negotiate down from slot weighs in this draft for individual players as in a shortened draft, one player holds a lot more weight than the would in a normal draft. Yeah that was in a few stories around nfl draft. The scouts kinda loved that they were so much more important since the others didn't get to rely on the late process stuff. The late process stuff is kinda garbage anyway so I'd imagine drafting is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, bmags said: Yeah that was in a few stories around nfl draft. The scouts kinda loved that they were so much more important since the others didn't get to rely on the late process stuff. The late process stuff is kinda garbage anyway so I'd imagine drafting is better. And baseball is going to be worse because at least football had a season to go off of, baseball isn't going to have that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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