Rick Hahn, Nick Hostetler, Jeremy Haber, and our minor league systems

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

14 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

Well it wouldn't make sense to talk about a guy we weren't in talks with. Machado and Harper are great players and we were desperate, so we took what we could get as fans. 

There’s a clear distinction between talking about someone and definitively stating you’d prefer a player over another player just because you thought the Sox had a better chance of signing him, which is what I was hearing in December/January.

If Yolmer gets back to his 2 WAR self sometime soon and Madrigal is as good as advertised, the Sox don’t have a glaring hole at 2b, SS, or 3b. On the other hand, we all knew that outside of Eloy, the outfield was a black hole this year and probably half of next year at least. Even then, who knows what we get out of fringe top 10 org guys like Basabe and Adolfo. Complete wild cards.

Edited April 15, 2019 by JUSTgottaBELIEVE

[bmags]

29 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

There’s a clear distinction between talking about someone and definitively stating you’d prefer a player over another player just because you thought the Sox had a better chance of signing him, which is what I was hearing in December/January.

If Yolmer gets back to his 2 WAR self sometime soon and Madrigal is as good as advertised, the Sox don’t have a glaring hole at 2b, SS, or 3b. On the other hand, we all knew that outside of Eloy, the outfield was a black hole this year and probably half of next year at least. Even then, who knows what we get out of fringe top 10 org guys like Basabe and Adolfo. Complete wild cards.

Basabe and Adolfo are not fringe top ten org guys.

[turnin' two]

1 hour ago, chitownsportsfan said:

ha, I'm not convinced he's a HOFer but the voters did so I guess that's alright.  I was rooting for him to get in but personally I think he falls a bit short stats wise.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/raineti01.shtml

 

You are wrong.

 

[chitownsportsfan]

1 minute ago, turnin' two said:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/raineti01.shtml

 

You are wrong.

 

I think I've looked at his page a lot and agree with most of the monitors: 

Black Ink

Batting - 20 (113), Average HOFer ≈ 27

Gray Ink

Batting - 114 (186), Average HOFer ≈ 144

Hall of Fame Monitor

Batting - 90 (199), Likely HOFer ≈ 100

Hall of Fame Standards

Batting - 47 (107), Average HOFer ≈ 50

JAWS

Left Field (8th):     69.4 career WAR / 42.4 7yr-peak WAR / 55.9 JAWS   Average HOF LF (out of 20):     65.5 career WAR / 41.6 7yr-peak WAR / 53.6 JAWS

There are certainly less deserving guys in the HOF and a 69.4 WAR is nothing to scoff at but for me personally he's just a little short of a HOF career.  I understand that this is subjective we could argue all day about it.

[turnin' two]

6 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I think I've looked at his page a lot and agree with most of the monitors: 

Black Ink

Batting - 20 (113), Average HOFer ≈ 27

Gray Ink

Batting - 114 (186), Average HOFer ≈ 144

Hall of Fame Monitor

Batting - 90 (199), Likely HOFer ≈ 100

Hall of Fame Standards

Batting - 47 (107), Average HOFer ≈ 50

JAWS

Left Field (8th):     69.4 career WAR / 42.4 7yr-peak WAR / 55.9 JAWS   Average HOF LF (out of 20):     65.5 career WAR / 41.6 7yr-peak WAR / 53.6 JAWS

There are certainly less deserving guys in the HOF and a 69.4 WAR is nothing to scoff at but for me personally he's just a little short of a HOF career.  I understand that this is subjective we could argue all day about it.

Great, nice opinion.  You are free to think that.  

Did you notice, the top his page, where it say HALL OF FAME in that gold banner?  That says that your opinion is factually incorrect.

What you think here doesn't matter anymore.  His career WAR, peak WAR, and JAWS all put him above average as a HOF player.   It is a baseball fact, that Tim Raines is a Hall of Famer.  

[zisk]

1 hour ago, chitownsportsfan said:

ha, I'm not convinced he's a HOFer but the voters did so I guess that's alright.  I was rooting for him to get in but personally I think he falls a bit short stats wise.

If you're the second best lead off hitter for 10-15 years (Rickey Henderson) and steal 800 bases you're a hall of famer. If he were on the 1970s Reds team instead of

Pete Rose, He'd have been a first ballot member. Some people forget how terrible a place to play for stats Olympic stadium was.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

Basabe and Adolfo are not fringe top ten org guys.

Every list I’ve seen either has them at the back end of the top 10 or just outside. Both are off to poor starts (one injury, one performance) that it wouldn’t shock me to see both slip outside the top 10 at the mid year ranking update. That’s what I mean by fringe top 10. I don’t think anyone feels comfortable penciling either one into RF for the Sox any time soon or for the long term. Could it happen? Absolutely. But they’re wild cards.

[Chicago White Sox]

2 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Every list I’ve seen either has them at the back end of the top 10 or just outside. Both are off to poor starts (one injury, one performance) that it wouldn’t shock me to see both slip outside the top 10 at the mid year ranking update. That’s what I mean by fringe top 10. I don’t think anyone feels comfortable penciling either one into RF for the Sox any time soon or for the long term. Could it happen? Absolutely. But they’re wild cards.

Adolfo & Basabe would be top 10 prospects in the vast majority of systems.  And who in our system do you think is going to pass them?

[bmags]

1 minute ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Every list I’ve seen either has them at the back end of the top 10 or just outside. Both are off to poor starts (one injury, one performance) that it wouldn’t shock me to see both slip outside the top 10 at the mid year ranking update. That’s what I mean by fringe top 10. I don’t think anyone feels comfortable penciling either one into RF for the Sox any time soon or for the long term. Could it happen? Absolutely. But they’re wild cards.

They are solid top ten. I dont understand how you mark someone as a "poor start" for getting injured, but adolfo has been on top 100 prospect lists. 

I don't understand why it's so obvious that we should bank on Madrigal but so foolish that we could bank on one of four outfield prospects to provide production in the corner outfield.

Your reasons why Harper was the superior fit has two ifs on it. But Harper >>> any of the OFers we will put up, and Machado >>>> Madrigal so I guess it didn't really matter anyway.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

13 minutes ago, bmags said:

They are solid top ten. I dont understand how you mark someone as a "poor start" for getting injured, but adolfo has been on top 100 prospect lists. 

I don't understand why it's so obvious that we should bank on Madrigal but so foolish that we could bank on one of four outfield prospects to provide production in the corner outfield.

Your reasons why Harper was the superior fit has two ifs on it. But Harper >>> any of the OFers we will put up, and Machado >>>> Madrigal so I guess it didn't really matter anyway.

Shouldn’t we be comparing Moncada to Machado? They play the same position now. And since I’ve been told it’s relatively easy to find an average MLB 2b, we shouldn’t worry about that position moving forward. And yes, I think just about everyone would agree that Madrigal’s floor is higher than any of the fringe OF prospects.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

24 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Adolfo & Basabe would be top 10 prospects in the vast majority of systems.  And who in our system do you think is going to pass them?

I could easily see 1 or 2 guys internally passing them based on performance and then another 2 or 3 guys not currently in the system between the June draft and July trades.

[bmags]

1 minute ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Shouldn’t we be comparing Moncada to Machado? They play the same position now. And since I’ve been told it’s relatively easy to find an average MLB 2b, we shouldn’t worry about that position moving forward. And yes, I think just about everyone would agree that Madrigal’s floor is higher than any of the fringe OF prospects.

Why? He wouldn't be "blocking" Moncada. Moncada would be the 2b if he had signed, and we'd just have a great infield and would need to find a RF. Had Harper signed, we'd have Moncada at 3b and would need to find a 2b. We theoretically have either prospects that can replace both, or are dealing with positions that are typically affordable on the marketplace. So it didn't matter, and getting an elite player was more important. But Machado's plus defense would be nice.

[mqr]

35 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Every list I’ve seen either has them at the back end of the top 10 or just outside. Both are off to poor starts (one injury, one performance) that it wouldn’t shock me to see both slip outside the top 10 at the mid year ranking update. That’s what I mean by fringe top 10. I don’t think anyone feels comfortable penciling either one into RF for the Sox any time soon or for the long term. Could it happen? Absolutely. But they’re wild cards.

I would feel pretty comfortable about penciling one of Gonzalez/Rutherford/Basabe/Adolfo to be a decent contributor. You don't have to just pick one. 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

2 minutes ago, bmags said:

Why? He wouldn't be "blocking" Moncada. Moncada would be the 2b if he had signed, and we'd just have a great infield and would need to find a RF. Had Harper signed, we'd have Moncada at 3b and would need to find a 2b. We theoretically have either prospects that can replace both, or are dealing with positions that are typically affordable on the marketplace. So it didn't matter, and getting an elite player was more important. But Machado's plus defense would be nice.

Which position is easier to fill with a league average or better player at an affordable price, 2b or RF?

And I think Sanchez is better than Palka now and Madrigal is more of a certainty than any of those OF prospects for RF in the future but let’s just take them out of the discussion for a moment.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

2 minutes ago, mqr said:

I would feel pretty comfortable about penciling one of Gonzalez/Rutherford/Basabe/Adolfo to be a decent contributor. You don't have to just pick one. 

Do either Gonzalez or Rutherford have the arm strength for RF? Honest question because I didn’t think they did.

[Chicago White Sox]

2 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Do either Gonzalez or Rutherford have the arm strength for RF? Honest question because I didn’t think they did.

Gonzalez probably does.

[bmags]

12 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Which position is easier to fill with a league average or better player at an affordable price, 2b or RF?

And I think Sanchez is better than Palka now and Madrigal is more of a certainty than any of those OF prospects for RF in the future but let’s just take them out of the discussion for a moment.

I honestly don't find them that different except because of flexibility OF often includes some higher ceiling FA than 2b typically will. Probably your ideal RF (ish) FA last year would hav been Brantley who got 16mm, vs. Lemahieu who got 12. Then you have a bunch more older 2b that are probably more certain to be around slightly below average than the same quantity that was available last year. But there's also just playing Curtis Granderson in RF on a minor league deal option and hope.

[poppysox]

43 minutes ago, bmags said:

Why? He wouldn't be "blocking" Moncada. Moncada would be the 2b if he had signed, and we'd just have a great infield and would need to find a RF. Had Harper signed, we'd have Moncada at 3b and would need to find a 2b. We theoretically have either prospects that can replace both, or are dealing with positions that are typically affordable on the marketplace. So it didn't matter, and getting an elite player was more important. But Machado's plus defense would be nice.

If we had to move Moncada to 2nd to make room for Machado we would have blocked Madrigal.  This way we still have a great infield with available cash reserves to extend Moncada, Cease, Kopech, Robert, Madrigal or find free agent pitchers, etc..  For my money I prefer not to have so many eggs in one basket.  Someone needs to be on base for the thumpers.  Just my preference.

[chitownsportsfan]

1 minute ago, poppysox said:

If we had to move Moncada to 2nd to make room for Machado we would have blocked Madrigal.  This way we still have a great infield with available cash reserves to extend Moncada, Cease, Kopech, Robert, Madrigal or find free agent pitchers, etc..  For my money I prefer not to have so many eggs in one basket.  Someone needs to be on base for the thumpers.  Just my preference.

Talking about blocking a guy that is in low A ball is fucking ridiculous.  If Madrigal pans out you worry about one of those "good problems" then.  If the Sox moved Moncada for any reasons related to Madrigal that is some horsehit process.

[poppysox]

4 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Talking about blocking a guy that is in low A ball is fucking ridiculous.  If Madrigal pans out you worry about one of those "good problems" then.  If the Sox moved Moncada for any reasons related to Madrigal that is some horsehit process.

Madrigal will be your starting 2nd baseman next year.  I understand you can disagree but we will see.

[flavum]

3 minutes ago, poppysox said:

Madrigal will be your starting 2nd baseman next year.  I understand you can disagree but we will see.

I could see him being ready by June, 2020. And I definitely think the Moncada move to third had something to do with Madrigal. They didn’t take a college bat with the 4th pick for him to be in the minors for 3 years. They obviously believe in his skills and his position is second base. So they moved Moncada to third to play all year when winning isn’t a priority. That’s just a smart move.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 hour ago, flavum said:

I could see him being ready by June, 2020. And I definitely think the Moncada move to third had something to do with Madrigal. They didn’t take a college bat with the 4th pick for him to be in the minors for 3 years. They obviously believe in his skills and his position is second base. So they moved Moncada to third to play all year when winning isn’t a priority. That’s just a smart move.

Yep and the right move. I stand by my opinion that when this team is ready to compete (2021), we will be thankful we missed on Machado because we will have more pressing needs in other areas and Machado won’t be performing to the level of a $30M AAV player at that time.

[ChiSoxJon]

1 hour ago, flavum said:

I could see him being ready by June, 2020. And I definitely think the Moncada move to third had something to do with Madrigal. They didn’t take a college bat with the 4th pick for him to be in the minors for 3 years. They obviously believe in his skills and his position is second base. So they moved Moncada to third to play all year when winning isn’t a priority. That’s just a smart move.

110%

Gold glove caliber glove NOW at 2B

[poppysox]

21 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

21 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Yep and the right move. I stand by my opinion that when this team is ready to compete (2021), we will be thankful we missed on Machado because we will have more pressing needs in other areas and Machado won’t be performing to the level of a $30M AAV player at that time.

Yep and the right move. I stand by my opinion that when this team is ready to compete (2021), we will be thankful we missed on Machado because we will have more pressing needs in other areas and Machado won’t be performing to the level of a $30M AAV player at that time.

I agree!

[SonofaRoache]

On 4/15/2019 at 2:27 PM, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

There’s a clear distinction between talking about someone and definitively stating you’d prefer a player over another player just because you thought the Sox had a better chance of signing him, which is what I was hearing in December/January.

If Yolmer gets back to his 2 WAR self sometime soon and Madrigal is as good as advertised, the Sox don’t have a glaring hole at 2b, SS, or 3b. On the other hand, we all knew that outside of Eloy, the outfield was a black hole this year and probably half of next year at least. Even then, who knows what we get out of fringe top 10 org guys like Basabe and Adolfo. Complete wild cards.

Well to answer your question, we preferred Harper first. Not only was he a good fit on the field, but he would be a booming success off it. Machado was the better overall player and some preferred his fit from a defensive standpoint. I'd guess 70 percent of fans wanted Harper until Machado was clearly the target. It didn't mean that people didn't want Harper, just that it didn't make sense to talk about him.