Early Promotions?

[raBBit]

^^ Yup what he said. 

Top draft picks and top international amateurs (especially position players) have less to gain from extensions and more risk from signing an extension. At the end of the day, there are more factors at play than just the players financial standings at the time where an extension would make sense, but that's kind of the broad way of looking at things. I do think the players representation (particularly if they're with a lesser-known agent) is very important consideration as well. 

[ptatc]

1 hour ago, raBBit said:

Someone else said it and I totally agree - it's very possible Sox are very conservative with Robert to avoid any service time attention next April. If the Sox pull up Robert to Bham in May, and he continues to dominating, people will expect him AAA by the end of the year. Then when he puts on a show in ST next year the Sox will be the evil team holding him back like with Eloy. Robert seems unlikely to do one of these extensions everyone else is doing because he got his signing bonus when he came stateside so Sox would want to hold him back for the 7th year of control.

I think Sox would like to have Robert split time between A+/AA but we'll see how long they can keep him in W-S if he keeps this up. 

No doubt. It looks much better for the team if they start him at A+, move him to AA, maybe just start AAA at the end of the season. This way when they start him at AAA next year and bring him up part way through the season, the timeline seems justified.

This is all dependent on him continuing to play well at all levels and staying healthy.

[Dick Allen]

12 minutes ago, ptatc said:

No doubt. It looks much better for the team if they start him at A+, move him to AA, maybe just start AAA at the end of the season. This way when they start him at AAA next year and bring him up part way through the season, the timeline seems justified.

This is all dependent on him continuing to play well at all levels and staying healthy.

So it's wrong to manipulate, but OK to manipulate.

[raBBit]

18 minutes ago, ptatc said:

No doubt. It looks much better for the team if they start him at A+, move him to AA, maybe just start AAA at the end of the season. This way when they start him at AAA next year and bring him up part way through the season, the timeline seems justified.

 This is all dependent on him continuing to play well at all levels and staying healthy.

Yes and as you pointed out, all thoughts about Robert's future both short term and long term need to have mention of the significant caveat that is his health. 

[chitownsportsfan]

14 hours ago, raBBit said:

My guy. Hope all is well up there. At least some of us should be privy to good baseball. 

been a fun start for the Mariners, even losing 5 in a row just now they kept the HR streak alive and it's fun having the town talking about something other than Seahawks FA talk and draft this time of year.  Weather has been pretty nice too, we haven't had more than one or two of those miserable, 45 degree damp April nights.  It's either been 45-50 and clear, or 55-60 and overcast.  That's certainly helped their hitting.

Pisses me off a bit seeing Omar hitting the cover off the ball (where did this power come from...) but oh well, that trade has worked out for the Sox so far as well and will look better if they can get a B- type for Colome in summer.

[Bob Sacamano]

6 hours ago, Jose Abreu said:

Players are signing these extensions right now because of the financial security they provide. A lot of these players have families (either back home, if they're originally from elsewhere, here in the states, or both) who are depending on them, so signing long-term deals now is very reassuring. Robert/Moncada and others who signed monster bonuses right off the bat don't really face this issue because they already have more than enough money to provide for both themselves and others, so they have more incentive to just play and see how much their value can increase. 

So to raBBit's point, the Sox are gonna want to play the service time game to guarantee 7 years of Robert since he's unlikely to agree to an extension. 

Ah yeah that's a good point.  I guess I was kind of looking at it as "I've already received a bunch of money from my bonus. I'm willing to sacrifice a free agent year or two if the situation is best for myself (and possibly family)."

Edited April 19, 2019 by soxfan2014

[Chicago White Sox]

19 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Great stuff @raBBit

@raBBit bringing awesome insights as usual!

[Chicago White Sox]

On 4/15/2019 at 9:03 AM, Chicago White Sox said:

So we’re about 10 or so games into the season and figured it would be fun to speculate who might receive early promotions (i.e. before league all-star games).  For this exercise, I’m excluding guys that are clearly non-prospects as well as the AAA guys.  Here are my top 10 choices based on likelihood:

1. Luis Robert, CF (A+ to AA) - If he keeps this up, he’ll get a promotion by early May
2. Steele Walker, OF (A to A+) - I think he moves up at the same time Robert does
3. Taylor Varnell, LHP (A to A+) - Almost 24 years old and has been dominant
4. Kade McClure, RHP (A to A+) - Should get a bump after a few more good starts
5. Bennett Sousa, LHP (A to A+) - Just turned 24 years old and has been dominant
6. Nick Madrigal, 2B (A+ to AA) - He’ll need to show more but I think that happens
7. Konnor Pilkington, LHP (A to A+) - Has been stellar but less need to push forward
8. Alec Hansen, RHP (A+ to AA) - Will happen eventually but seem to be moving slowly with him
9. Zach Thompson, RHP (AA to AAA) - Only a AAA roster crunch preventing this from happening
10. Benardo Flores, LHP (AA to AAA) - Already has 15 solid AA starts under his belt 

What do you guys think?  Who do you think receives early promotions?  Would love to see others’ lists.

Four of these guys have now been promoted with Hansen getting the bump to Birmingham.  Assuming it’s a good one, I think today may be Varnell’s last start in Kannapolis.