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flavum

4/28 Games

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10 minutes ago, flavum said:

Madrigal 8 k in 261 career PAs (none today)

That is going to be SO nice to have at the top of the lineup

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3 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

A .714 OPS from a 22 year old in MLB is bad? 

Yes. Is this supposed to be a hard question? I'm glad he's improved this year, but we blew a year of control by having him up here K'ing 217 times. Fine, whatever, he's cut down on his Ks and is now looking like a superstar. That's great, but with Robert, let's be patient, let him work on his swing-and-miss issues in MiLB on a slow timeline, and come up when he's truly ready.

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15 minutes ago, The Sir said:

He has 7 Ks in the last three games, and a 27% k-rate overall. Sox fans freak out when dudes get rushed up and totally suck, but never seem to learn to not beg for the same exact mistake in the future. What's the rush with this guy? He's 1.6 years younger than the average at WS. Let him spend his age-21 season there, his age-22 season at B'ham, and start his age-23 season at Charlotte, working towards a late season call-up in 2021. There is NO rush.

No offense, but this is just ridiculous.  There is zero reason for him to spend his entire 2018 season in Winston Salem.  If you took out his last two games which were clearly impacted by his return from injury, his K rate would be ~18% which is insane for a guy putting up a .400+ ISO.

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5 minutes ago, The Sir said:

Yes. Is this supposed to be a hard question? I'm glad he's improved this year, but we blew a year of control by having him up here K'ing 217 times. Fine, whatever, he's cut down on his Ks and is now looking like a superstar. That's great, but with Robert, let's be patient, let him work on his swing-and-miss issues in MiLB on a slow timeline, and come up when he's truly ready.

No, it's an easy question and the answer to it is no. If all you care about is one stat, and being below average in that one stat does not necessarily prevent one from being a productive player, then maybe you should rethink your method of analysis. You're telling me you wouldn't want Joey Gallo on your team because of his k-rate, despite his status as one of the best hitters in the sport since 2017? 

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Piping hot taeks!  I liked the one the other day saying Robert was “clearly rushed back too soon” because of the 7k. 

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24 minutes ago, The Sir said:

Yes. Is this supposed to be a hard question? I'm glad he's improved this year, but we blew a year of control by having him up here K'ing 217 times. Fine, whatever, he's cut down on his Ks and is now looking like a superstar. That's great, but with Robert, let's be patient, let him work on his swing-and-miss issues in MiLB on a slow timeline, and come up when he's truly ready.

What’s the rush? The clock is ticking on Eloy, Moncada, and Anderson and the young pitchers. The sooner Robert, Cease, and Madrigal could learn from playing at the highest level the better. It is the same reason Padres promote Tatis at ripe age of 20. Do you really think Moncada would have made a drastic change to his approach if he didn’t fall flat on his face last year? Prospect development isn’t linear and prospects aren’t called up without flaws, get it through your head. (If I do come across as condescending it’s because I think your Robert K posts are becoming troll posts at this point.) 

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11 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

No, it's an easy question and the answer to it is no. If all you care about is one stat, and being below average in that one stat does not necessarily prevent one from being a productive player, then maybe you should rethink your method of analysis. You're telling me you wouldn't want Joey Gallo on your team because of his k-rate, despite his status as one of the best hitters in the sport since 2017? 

Not want him on my team? That's not the point of this at all. The point is that Gallo would be a MUCH better player if he didn't strike out so much. Last year, Gallo had an OPS of .810, despite hitting 40 bombs, because he struck out 36% of the time. If he could cut that to 25% and change nothing except hitting a few more singles so that his BABIP was the same, his OPS would rise to .869. Of course, Gallo isn't a singles hitter, so let's assume that instead of just singles, he maintains BABIP by hitting at his usual power rate with the extra 63 PAs which are no longer wasted with Ks: his OPS becomes .932.

Striking out less would make Gallo better. Striking out less has made Moncada better. Striking out less will make Robert better.

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4 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

What’s the rush? The clock is ticking on Eloy, Moncada, and Anderson and the young pitchers. The sooner Robert, Cease, and Madrigal could learn from playing at the highest level the better. It is the same reason Padres promote Tatis at ripe age of 20. Do you really think Moncada would have made a drastic change to his approach if he didn’t fall flat on his face last year? Prospect development isn’t linear and prospects aren’t called up without flaws, get it through your head. (If I do come across as condescending it’s because I think your Robert K posts are becoming troll posts at this point.) 

Rushing Robert so that he can be paired up with players several years older than him to create a successful ball club, rather than focusing on improved player scouting, drafting, signing, and development in the farm system, so that it doesn't matter when Robert comes up because we will inevitably surround him with good players, is such a cynical yet typical White Sox attitude.

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7 minutes ago, The Sir said:

Not want him on my team? That's not the point of this at all. The point is that Gallo would be a MUCH better player if he didn't strike out so much. Last year, Gallo had an OPS of .810, despite hitting 40 bombs, because he struck out 36% of the time. If he could cut that to 25% and change nothing except hitting a few more singles so that his BABIP was the same, his OPS would rise to .869. Of course, Gallo isn't a singles hitter, so let's assume that instead of just singles, he maintains BABIP by hitting at his usual power rate with the extra 63 PAs which are no longer wasted with Ks: his OPS becomes .932.

Striking out less would make Gallo better. Striking out less has made Moncada better. Striking out less will make Robert better.

Consequently no one will care what Robert's OPS is if he's hitting 30 homers and stealing 40 bags per year

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2 minutes ago, soxfan49 said:

Consequently no one will care what Robert's OPS is if he's hitting 30 homers and stealing 40 bags per year

And playing great D in CF.

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37 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

No, it's an easy question and the answer to it is no. If all you care about is one stat, and being below average in that one stat does not necessarily prevent one from being a productive player, then maybe you should rethink your method of analysis. You're telling me you wouldn't want Joey Gallo on your team because of his k-rate, despite his status as one of the best hitters in the sport since 2017? 

Also, Gallo had 2.1 bWAR last year. 2.8 fWAR. Not really spectacular.

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8 minutes ago, soxfan49 said:

Consequently no one will care what Robert's OPS is if he's hitting 30 homers and stealing 40 bags per year

Sure, because his OPS will probably be solid at that point, unless he's a totally one dimensional player. But if he strikes out at 26% at A-ball, he's going to strike out at an even greater rate at MLB, so he'll be less likely to do things like hit 30 HRs, or be on base enough to steal 40 bags.

You guys act like I'm bringing up some random metric to denigrate this guy. Like, oh, his UZR at A-ball is poor, so don't promote him! Negative. His k-rate ties directly into his OPS and BABIP, and both of those things do pretty well to measure a player's performance and how sustainable said performance is. 

I mean, we haven't even mentioned BABIP. Right now, it's over .500. If anyone else was doing this well but with that BABIP, the sabesnerds on this board would be all over the place talking about regression to the mean. Great point! So when our multi-million dollar investment finally has a great stretch buoyed by that sort of anomaly, why isn't anyone concerned?

I'm not saying the guy's gonna suck. But we need to slow the F down.

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4 minutes ago, The Sir said:

Rushing Robert so that he can be paired up with players several years older than him to create a successful ball club, rather than focusing on improved player scouting, drafting, signing, and development in the farm system, so that it doesn't matter when Robert comes up because we will inevitably surround him with good players, is such a cynical yet typical White Sox attitude.

Prospect development isn’t about giving everybody a full year at each level (every prospect as a different timeline). When a player who’s naturally talented proved he’s twice as good as others around him, you aren’t rushing him. Also promoting Robert has no direct impact to our scouting, drafting and developing of other players. But I’m sure other young prospects like Vladdy, Acuna, Tatis, Soto (the list goes on and on) were ruined because they didn’t spend a full season at each minor league level.

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27 minutes ago, The Sir said:

Not want him on my team? That's not the point of this at all. The point is that Gallo would be a MUCH better player if he didn't strike out so much. Last year, Gallo had an OPS of .810, despite hitting 40 bombs, because he struck out 36% of the time. If he could cut that to 25% and change nothing except hitting a few more singles so that his BABIP was the same, his OPS would rise to .869. Of course, Gallo isn't a singles hitter, so let's assume that instead of just singles, he maintains BABIP by hitting at his usual power rate with the extra 63 PAs which are no longer wasted with Ks: his OPS becomes .932.

Striking out less would make Gallo better. Striking out less has made Moncada better. Striking out less will make Robert better.

Sure, that's all correct, but there's a reason players who have that much raw talent/power strike out a lot. It's probably impossible for Gallo, with his swing, to strike out significantly less, but what he is right now is an extremely good hitter. 

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4 minutes ago, The Sir said:

Sure, because his OPS will probably be solid at that point, unless he's a totally one dimensional player. But if he strikes out at 26% at A-ball, he's going to strike out at an even greater rate at MLB, so he'll be less likely to do things like hit 30 HRs, or be on base enough to steal 40 bags.

You guys act like I'm bringing up some random metric to denigrate this guy. Like, oh, his UZR at A-ball is poor, so don't promote him! Negative. His k-rate ties directly into his OPS and BABIP, and both of those things do pretty well to measure a player's performance and how sustainable said performance is. 

I mean, we haven't even mentioned BABIP. Right now, it's over .500. If anyone else was doing this well but with that BABIP, the sabesnerds on this board would be all over the place talking about regression to the mean. Great point! So when our multi-million dollar investment finally has a great stretch buoyed by that sort of anomaly, why isn't anyone concerned?

I'm not saying the guy's gonna suck. But we need to slow the F down.

Robert has an insane BABIP because he's an MLB-caliber player playing against single-A competition. Eloy had a crazy BABIP in AAA, as did Juan Soto at every level. There won't be any major regression because his contact is so good that a high BABIP is sustainable. 

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6 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

Prospect development isn’t about giving everybody a full year at each level (every prospect as a different timeline). When a player who’s naturally talented proved he’s twice as good as others around him, you aren’t rushing him. Also promoting Robert has no direct impact to our scouting, drafting and developing of other players. But I’m sure other young prospects like Vladdy, Acuna, Tatis, Soto (the list goes on and on) were ruined because they didn’t spend a full season at each minor league level.

My point was that I don't want our franchise to be dependent on one group of players. If Robert takes until 2021, like I think he should, then we as an organization should have drafted, signed, and developed other young stars to surround him AT THAT TIME, rather than panicking because we only have two to three years left with our current crop of stars, if that makes sense. Yes, it's idealistic, yes, it's contrary to how this shit organization runs typically, but I want it to get better. Improvement on that front will lead to continued success, rather than just four or five years before we go through another period of suffering (and we're already clawing into that four or five year window).

Also, Vlad struck out 6% of the time at AAA. Yeah, he's probably the best prospect ever, but he was an actual exception. I don't think there's anything about Robert to make him an exception to my proposed development timeline.

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8 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

Robert has an insane BABIP because he's an MLB-caliber player playing against single-A competition. Eloy had a crazy BABIP in AAA, as did Juan Soto at every level. There won't be any major regression because his contact is so good that a high BABIP is sustainable. 

Genuinely curious- do you think Robert would succeed at MLB right now? And yeah, I know "succeed" is a vague word, but I won't pinhole you into making some sort of measurable prediction on something we will never know.

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4 minutes ago, The Sir said:

Sure, because his OPS will probably be solid at that point, unless he's a totally one dimensional player. But if he strikes out at 26% at A-ball, he's going to strike out at an even greater rate at MLB, so he'll be less likely to do things like hit 30 HRs, or be on base enough to steal 40 bags.

You guys act like I'm bringing up some random metric to denigrate this guy. Like, oh, his UZR at A-ball is poor, so don't promote him! Negative. His k-rate ties directly into his OPS and BABIP, and both of those things do pretty well to measure a player's performance and how sustainable said performance is. 

I mean, we haven't even mentioned BABIP. Right now, it's over .500. If anyone else was doing this well but with that BABIP, the sabesnerds on this board would be all over the place talking about regression to the mean. Great point! So when our multi-million dollar investment finally has a great stretch buoyed by that sort of anomaly, why isn't anyone concerned?

I'm not saying the guy's gonna suck. But we need to slow the F down.

There is no guarantee he will improve his K rate if he stays at A ball where he’s not getting challenged and continues to go by the same mechanics he’s been using. Just as there is no guarantee that his K rate wouldn’t go down at the next level where he learns from better coaching and better opponents. And at the end of the day, Robert might just be someone who strikes out 25% of the time but also hits the ball really hard. Being so fixating on one stat and thinking the only or the best way to help the player develop is to spend as much time at that level as possible is where you’re completely wrong.

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When it comes to promotions, Robert and Madrigal around Vizquel for four months is real appealing to me.

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32 minutes ago, The Sir said:

My point was that I don't want our franchise to be dependent on one group of players. If Robert takes until 2021, like I think he should, then we as an organization should have drafted, signed, and developed other young stars to surround him AT THAT TIME, rather than panicking because we only have two to three years left with our current crop of stars, if that makes sense. Yes, it's idealistic, yes, it's contrary to how this shit organization runs typically, but I want it to get better. Improvement on that front will lead to continued success, rather than just four or five years before we go through another period of suffering (and we're already clawing into that four or five year window).

Also, Vlad struck out 6% of the time at AAA. Yeah, he's probably the best prospect ever, but he was an actual exception. I don't think there's anything about Robert to make him an exception to my proposed development timeline.

Vlady is someone who has naturally advanced swings so comparing anyone to him is fruitless exercise because you could spend your entire career playing and not be able to hit like him. But look at Acuna, he was k’ing at 31% at A ball before they promoted him to AA where his k rate improved to 23%. Tatis Jr spent 12 games at A- where he k’d 27% at before promoting to A+ and his k% is consistent at every stop. There are many other examples I’m not going to pull up. Prospect development isn’t linear, but holding the prospect at a level for as long as possible HOPING his k rate would improve is just an asinine approach.

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26 minutes ago, The Sir said:

Genuinely curious- do you think Robert would succeed at MLB right now? And yeah, I know "succeed" is a vague word, but I won't pinhole you into making some sort of measurable prediction on something we will never know.

Well, you're asking someone who thinks Robert was pretty close to MLB ready based on talent alone the day we signed him, and someone who thinks he's the best prospect the Sox have had during the rebuild. So I may be a little biased.

He does need some more seasoning. When I say he's an MLB-caliber player, that's largely a result of talent. Sure, he could "succeed" as a pinch runner/defensive replacement in MLB right now. If you gave him a season of PAs right now, however, I think he'd put up numbers pretty similar to Moncada last year, but maybe subtract some of the walks and add a bit more power. So a lot of strikeouts, but some pop which gives him somewhere between a 90 and 100 wRC+. Relative to his age, that isn't bad. 

If he goes to AA soon and sees MLB by early-mid 2020, which is both what I want to happen and what I think will happen, he may be able to cut down on the strikeouts enough so that he doesn't have 200+ of them like Moncada, but they'll always be a part of his game, most likely. 

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What doesn't seem to be well-recognized is the possibility that there was no way to avoid Moncada striking out a bunch in MLB, that he had to do it in order to eventually not do it.

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3 hours ago, The Sir said:

Yes. Is this supposed to be a hard question? I'm glad he's improved this year, but we blew a year of control by having him up here K'ing 217 times. Fine, whatever, he's cut down on his Ks and is now looking like a superstar. That's great, but with Robert, let's be patient, let him work on his swing-and-miss issues in MiLB on a slow timeline, and come up when he's truly ready.

You don't understand how it works. The only way to get better at hitting MLB pitching is to face MLB pitching. If we delayed Moncada's promotion we would have also been delaying his eventual success. 

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44 minutes ago, JuliusO1274 said:

You don't understand how it works. The only way to get better at hitting MLB pitching is to face MLB pitching. If we delayed Moncada's promotion we would have also been delaying his eventual success. 

Apparently you learn how to beat Chris Sales and Corey Klubers festering in AAA.  

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