5/5 Games #CeaseDay

[Jack Parkman]

14 minutes ago, soxfan49 said:

Why? You didn't hear that unless you're an instant phenomenon, you suck? Shame on you

I obviously didn't say that. There is plenty of evidence to the contrary. When was the last time a Sox position prospect came to MLB and absolutely lit the world on fire? Maggs? It's been too long. There's obviously plenty of time for Jimenez, but Moncada has to do it this year. He's had 1100 PA at the MLB level. He's doing well right now, but it is too early in the season to say he's figured it out. Gotta see more. 

But Fathom and I were discussing this last night, that Altuve was the only guy we could think of that came up and wasn't a stud immediately and was a star. Most hit the ground running and never look back. Those that burn down villages tend to have more staying power, but even those that have instant success can fall on their face. Baseball is a humbling game. That comment was meant more about frustration with the Sox not having anyone come up and be an insta-star yet. 

I've taken a pretty rational approach to this rebuild, and this last weekend has really tested my patience, to say the least. I think it is starting to get to the point where results at the MLB level, at the very least at the individual level, are necessary. 

Edited May 6, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[soxfan49]

9 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I obviously didn't say that. There is plenty of evidence to the contrary. When was the last time a Sox position prospect came to MLB and absolutely lit the world on fire? Maggs? It's been too long. There's obviously plenty of time for Jimenez, but Moncada has to do it this year. He's had 1100 PA at the MLB level. He's doing well right now, but it is too early in the season to say he's figured it out. Gotta see more. 

But Fathom and I were discussing this last night, that Altuve was the only guy we could think of that came up and wasn't a stud immediately and was a star. Most hit the ground running and never look back. Those that burn down villages tend to have more staying power, but even those that have instant success can fall on their face. Baseball is a humbling game. That comment was meant more about frustration with the Sox not having anyone come up and be an insta-star yet. 

I've taken a pretty rational approach to this rebuild, and this last weekend has really tested my patience, to say the least. 

Trout came up, wasn't a stud "immediately" yet became a star.

JD Martinez struggled a ton in his first few pro seasons & look what he's become.

[Jack Parkman]

16 minutes ago, soxfan49 said:

Trout came up, wasn't a stud "immediately" yet became a star.

JD Martinez struggled a ton in his first few pro seasons & look what he's become.

JD Martinez was weird. He fits the Jose Bautista mold, and he is a DH and has always been a DH. 

I disagree with you on Mike Trout. He played 40 games at age 19 and at age 20 in his 1st full season he exploded. He never struggled for a full season. I consider Trout one of those "hit the ground running guys" because a 40 game cup of coffee at the end of a season is different than being an everyday player. Also he was 19. 

People like to cite Trout, but Trout was: 

1) 19 years old

2) had a small 40 game sample size. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/troutmi01.shtml 

Here's his player page, go look at his 2012 and tell me he wasn't an instant star. He put up 10.5 WAR in his first full season. 

Altuve had 2+ seasons of low value before he broke out. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/altuvjo01.shtml

Is it wrong to say that it is time for some of these guys to put up or shut up? 

Edited May 6, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Jerksticks]

Pretty sure Bregman sucked for quite a while

Edited May 6, 2019 by Jerksticks

[credezcrew24]

52 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

JD Martinez was weird. He fits the Jose Bautista mold, and he is a DH and has always been a DH. 

I disagree with you on Mike Trout. He played 40 games at age 19 and at age 20 in his 1st full season he exploded. He never struggled for a full season. I consider Trout one of those "hit the ground running guys" because a 40 game cup of coffee at the end of a season is different than being an everyday player. Also he was 19. 

People like to cite Trout, but Trout was: 

1) 19 years old

2) had a small 40 game sample size. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/troutmi01.shtml 

Here's his player page, go look at his 2012 and tell me he wasn't an instant star. He put up 10.5 WAR in his first full season. 

Altuve had 2+ seasons of low value before he broke out. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/altuvjo01.shtml

Is it wrong to say that it is time for some of these guys to put up or shut up? 

But it's okay for you to use Eloy's 21 game sample size to question his talent and the state of the rebuild?

[Jack Parkman]

12 minutes ago, credezcrew24 said:

But it's okay for you to use Eloy's 21 game sample size to question his talent and the state of the rebuild?

Didn't I say there is plenty of time for him? He's played 21 games. It sucks more that he's hurt than anything else. He's got plenty of time. Who knows, I might have a completely different opinion by the end of the year. I said it is far too early to say anything  about Jimenez(other than he's horrible in the OF) and to declare Moncada good. This is still incomplete. I'm just saying that my patience is being severely tested. It is time for some of these guys to put up or shut up. I'm to the point where minor league players aren't exciting me anymore. I want to see some  results at the big club. 

Let me clarify: by the end of this season, we'll know whether this is likely to work or not. They're running out of time, and their margin for error is razor thin. It's teetering on the brink. That is the most rational point of view. 

If anything is apparent, it is that the 1st wave and 2nd wave of talent may be too far apart to maximize their window, if one opens. If the 2nd wave struggles at all they're fucked. 

Edited May 6, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Balta1701]

37 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

Pretty sure Bregman sucked for quite a while

He was 1 for his first 32. 

He then put up a .917 OPS the rest of that season. 

[credezcrew24]

1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

I obviously didn't say that. There is plenty of evidence to the contrary. When was the last time a Sox position prospect came to MLB and absolutely lit the world on fire? Maggs? It's been too long. There's obviously plenty of time for Jimenez, but Moncada has to do it this year. He's had 1100 PA at the MLB level. He's doing well right now, but it is too early in the season to say he's figured it out. Gotta see more. 

But Fathom and I were discussing this last night, that Altuve was the only guy we could think of that came up and wasn't a stud immediately and was a star. Most hit the ground running and never look back. Those that burn down villages tend to have more staying power, but even those that have instant success can fall on their face. Baseball is a humbling game. That comment was meant more about frustration with the Sox not having anyone come up and be an insta-star yet. 

I've taken a pretty rational approach to this rebuild, and this last weekend has really tested my patience, to say the least. I think it is starting to get to the point where results at the MLB level, at the very least at the individual level, are necessary. 

Why don't we look at the 2018 fWAR leaders and their starts

1. Betts - first 197 games .818 OPS
2. Trout - first 179 games .911 OPS
3. Ramirez - first 180 games a .644 OPS
4. Bregman - first 204 games .818 OPS
5. Lindor - first 99 games.835 OPS
6. Yelich - first 206 games .765 OPS
7. Chapman - first 84 games .785 OPS
8. Machado - first 207 games .744 OPS
9. Rendon - first 98 games ,725 OPS
10. Martinez - first 166 games .705 OPS
11. Arenado - first 133 games .706 OPS
12. Cain - not comparable never a really good hitter
13. Simmons - not comparable never a really good hitter
14. Baez - first 222 games .680 OPS
15. Freeman - first 177 games .784 OPS

So basically of the top 13 offensive WAR players only 4 of them started out hitting over .800 OPS

[Jack Parkman]

13 minutes ago, credezcrew24 said:

Why don't we look at the 2018 fWAR leaders and their starts

1. Betts - first 197 games .818 OPS
2. Trout - first 179 games .911 OPS
3. Ramirez - first 180 games a .644 OPS
4. Bregman - first 204 games .818 OPS
5. Lindor - first 99 games.835 OPS
6. Yelich - first 206 games .765 OPS
7. Chapman - first 84 games .785 OPS
8. Machado - first 207 games .744 OPS
9. Rendon - first 98 games ,725 OPS
10. Martinez - first 166 games .705 OPS
11. Arenado - first 133 games .706 OPS
12. Cain - not comparable never a really good hitter
13. Simmons - not comparable never a really good hitter
14. Baez - first 222 games .680 OPS
15. Freeman - first 177 games .784 OPS

So basically of the top 13 offensive WAR players only 4 of them started out hitting over .800 OPS

These numbers look cherry picked. Put them all in the same sample size and get back to me.  200 games. All of them through 200 games. 

[JuliusO1274]

How are the people who refuse to alter the timeline on Robert going to handle him raking in AA?

[JuliusO1274]

3 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

If Moncada and Jimenez have taught us anything, it is that dominating the minors is great, but the majors is a completely different ballgame. It's nice to be excited about Robert, but minor league rankings and stats mean jack and shit. Gotta come up to the Sox and rake. 

Moncada never really raked in the minors and Jimenez has barely had a chance to prove himself yet. Raking in the minors is still a great sign because if you can't do it there than you certainly won't do it in the bigs (okay there are a few exceptions to that rule).

Edited May 6, 2019 by JuliusO1274

[credezcrew24]

50 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

These numbers look cherry picked. Put them all in the same sample size and get back to me.  200 games. All of them through 200 games. 

I did it that way to save myself time. I literally did it the easiest way possible there was no cherry picking involved.

It was simply done by highlighting decent sample sizes over 1, 2, or 3 full seasons on baseball reference whatever gave me a relative comparable number. I have zero interest in spending any more time on it, but if you want to do that be then my guest.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

3 hours ago, fathom said:

Is this where we talk about how quite a few of us said Birmingham would lead to the death of Rutherford and Sheets prospect status (if they had any left).  Robert is impressive as hell though

Apparently so. Plenty of time to gloat over your predictions of failure at the end of the year and even then  ( if they continue to struggle ) they will still be in the Sox top prospects lists.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, JuliusO1274 said:

How are the people who refuse to alter the timeline on Robert going to handle him raking in AA?

I'm not sure there are that many who refuse to alter the timeline. Everyone recognizes his upside. But everyone else who wants to push him also have to recognize because of injuries he still has very little experience.  I mean look at you saying he's raking in AA . Yes he is but it's an ultra small sample size. There really no need to have him in Chicago this year unless you prefer him to get his feet wet to be more prepared for 2020 in a non competitive year at the expense of the years of control.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 hours ago, credezcrew24 said:

Why don't we look at the 2018 fWAR leaders and their starts

1. Betts - first 197 games .818 OPS
2. Trout - first 179 games .911 OPS
3. Ramirez - first 180 games a .644 OPS
4. Bregman - first 204 games .818 OPS
5. Lindor - first 99 games.835 OPS
6. Yelich - first 206 games .765 OPS
7. Chapman - first 84 games .785 OPS
8. Machado - first 207 games .744 OPS
9. Rendon - first 98 games ,725 OPS
10. Martinez - first 166 games .705 OPS
11. Arenado - first 133 games .706 OPS
12. Cain - not comparable never a really good hitter
13. Simmons - not comparable never a really good hitter
14. Baez - first 222 games .680 OPS
15. Freeman - first 177 games .784 OPS

So basically of the top 13 offensive WAR players only 4 of them started out hitting over .800 OPS

You could also probably find a few guys like Whit Merrifield who didn't even sniff the majors until a bit older (27 for Merrifield) Since then he seems to be a 4/5 WAR guy. Obviously guys like that do not dominate for as long as true young talent but they have high value nevertheless.

[GermanSoxFan]

8 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

 

I've taken a pretty rational approach to this rebuild, 

[citation needed]

[soxfan49]

8 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

These numbers look cherry picked. Put them all in the same sample size and get back to me.  200 games. All of them through 200 games. 

You can't tell someone with a great rebuttal to change the sample size to 200 games especially since the sample size you're using for Eloy is ~20 games.

Plus, you did say "immediately" become a star.

[Jack Parkman]

3 hours ago, soxfan49 said:

You can't tell someone with a great rebuttal to change the sample size to 200 games especially since the sample size you're using for Eloy is ~20 games.

Plus, you did say "immediately" become a star.

Eloy is fine. The fact he's not hitting the ball hard is concerning, but it is way too early to say anything really. 

[bmags]

This isn't a big slam dunk own or anything, as I still want to see a lot more out of madrigal before promoting him but at least thought its worth mentioning since people crap on him so much that Madrigal is out-OPSing Jonathan India right now and have same # of xbh (though India has 4 HRs admittedly).

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

36 minutes ago, bmags said:

This isn't a big slam dunk own or anything, as I still want to see a lot more out of madrigal before promoting him but at least thought its worth mentioning since people crap on him so much that Madrigal is out-OPSing Jonathan India right now and have same # of xbh (though India has 4 HRs admittedly).

And Madrigal is the type of guy that could be very valuable at the big league level 2.5/3.0 WAR type) if he can simply maintain a wRC+ in the 90-100 range (Ref: 2017/2018 Ian Kinsler). With his hit tool, I think that is a very realistic expectation.