Quin Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 1 hour ago, The Sir said: It was a really bad game, from an older guy with a pretty limited history of success in MiLB. I've fired people for less. And? That makes you the ultimate judge of baseball talent...for a guy projected to be a backup catcher? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 12th round draft pick; is Seby any good? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 59 minutes ago, The Sir said: That said, give me a date where we can actually judge these players. At which point can we identify certain players as busts? It depends on the player. If he's Avi Garcia we judge him early, when we want to, and we deem him disposable. If he's one of the beloved guys who are supposed to be the cornerstone or even roster pieces of the rebuild, we give them all the time in the world. Mr. Rutherford, Madrigal, Collins, Soto (is he still with the Sox), please take all the time u need. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sleepy Harold Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, greg775 said: It depends on the player. If he's Avi Garcia we judge him early, when we want to, and we deem him disposable. If he's one of the beloved guys who are supposed to be the cornerstone or even roster pieces of the rebuild, we give them all the time in the world. Mr. Rutherford, Madrigal, Collins, Soto (is he still with the Sox), please take all the time u need. Avi had 5 years, Seby has had 5 ABs. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jose Abreu Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 1 hour ago, The Sir said: Of course, some people sarcastically mocked it at the time because, 45 or so games into the season, he had an .870+ OPS and said it must therefore be possible. Ignoring their own usual rantings about SSS and the fact that Yoan got off to a great and relatively unsustainable start, they assumed he could do .870+ because he had done it until that point. A week later, it's changed drastically. Yoan has continued to regress towards his mean, which is emphatically not an .870 OPS player. Actually, the reason his production both was and is sustainable has nothing to do with people being hypocritical about SSS. It's because his BABIP and xwOBA/wOBA ratio normalized pretty early on. In fact, Moncada has been unlucky per his xwOBA/wOBA ratio (.370/.353). It isn't "regression to the mean" when someone is regressing further from the mean. While he has been striking out more in May, these metrics suggest that his batted ball luck has also decreased, below their expected levels. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Sir Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 35 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said: Actually, the reason his production both was and is sustainable has nothing to do with people being hypocritical about SSS. It's because his BABIP and xwOBA/wOBA ratio normalized pretty early on. In fact, Moncada has been unlucky per his xwOBA/wOBA ratio (.370/.353). It isn't "regression to the mean" when someone is regressing further from the mean. While he has been striking out more in May, these metrics suggest that his batted ball luck has also decreased, below their expected levels. We talked about this the other day. The reason he has a .702 OPS in May is because his strikeouts increased. Even with his .326 BABIP in May, with the same K-rate and HR-rate, his monthly OPS would be .859. Sure, he's had less luck, but if the K-rate hadn't taken a huge jump up, it wouldn't have mattered much. (I stole the numbers from my older post, so if they're slightly off from the current picture, forgive me. The point remains the same.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jose Abreu Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 23 minutes ago, The Sir said: We talked about this the other day. The reason he has a .702 OPS in May is because his strikeouts increased. Even with his .326 BABIP in May, with the same K-rate and HR-rate, his monthly OPS would be .859. Sure, he's had less luck, but if the K-rate hadn't taken a huge jump up, it wouldn't have mattered much. (I stole the numbers from my older post, so if they're slightly off from the current picture, forgive me. The point remains the same.) Yes, and I agree that the increase in May strikeouts is the main factor in his lower output. He is clearly not producing as well as he was in April, even with normalized luck, as you outlined. However, the reversal of luck is still playing a role in his splits. I believe in his development and his contact profile, so I think that after the next few seasons, including this one, he'll be closer to the April (.945) version than the May (~.700) version. Taking that literally, I guess I'm basically saying that I still expect an OPS greater than or equal to .8225 this season, which would be a tremendous improvement over last season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raBBit Posted June 10, 2019 Share Posted June 10, 2019 On 5/27/2019 at 9:00 PM, The Sir said: Yeah yeah yeah, he's young and deserves more time. That's what you all say. Fine- this season is a write-off and wins/losses don't matter at all. So more time can be had. Absolutely. That said, give me a date where we can actually judge these players. At which point can we identify certain players as busts? At which point can we be confident that we know what we have? I don't think Moncada will put up an .800 OPS any of the next three seasons. Save this post, come back and quote me if you like. If I'm right, can we start saying that he is what he is, or are we going to continue talking as if he still hasn't had enough opportunity? That it's still the "struggles" of a young player and not just his natural state? Moncada's line since this post: .381/.435/.643/.1.078. His OPS went from .811 to .856. 4 1 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Sir Posted June 10, 2019 Share Posted June 10, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, raBBit said: Moncada's line since this post: .381/.435/.643/.1.078. His OPS went from .811 to .856. It’s been two weeks. I still do not think he will put up an .800 OPS this year or in 2020 or 2021. Don’t be impatient- just come back and talk to me then. Edited June 10, 2019 by The Sir 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ron883 Posted June 10, 2019 Share Posted June 10, 2019 Just now, The Sir said: It’s been two weeks. I still do not think he will put up an .800 OPS this year or in 2018 or 2019. Don’t be impatient- just come back and talk to me then. So you don't think he will put up an .800 OPS last year? Really going out on a limb, Sir. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted June 10, 2019 Share Posted June 10, 2019 11 minutes ago, The Sir said: It’s been two weeks. I still do not think he will put up an .800 OPS this year or in 2020 or 2021. Don’t be impatient- just come back and talk to me then. You've got about 20 more games in which you need to hope he slumps badly because if he gets to the midway point with an 850 ops, the confidence level of him finishing the year north of 800 is about 85%. Here is a list of exit velocity leaders: Batter Avg Exit Velocity (mph) Avg Distance (feet) Avg Gen Velocity (mph) Avg Launch Angle (deg) Avg Height (feet) Events Judge, Aaron 99.0 230.4 8.5 11.2 35.2 46 Gallo, Joey 97.6 259.2 10.1 19.5 59.8 88 Fisher, Derek 97.5 213.6 9.6 4.2 26.5 33 Cruz, Nelson 95.4 250.3 5.7 16.9 50.3 94 Bell, Josh 95.0 241.4 6.5 10.9 40.5 176 Yelich, Christian 94.8 233.0 5.8 11.1 43.8 161 Schwarber, Kyle 94.8 235.6 5.2 15.4 47.3 131 Devers, Rafael 94.5 214.3 6.3 8.7 34.9 183 Sanchez, Gary 94.3 260.7 6.1 20.9 66.3 113 Donaldson, Josh 94.2 227.9 5.2 12.1 43.1 130 Moncada, Yoan 94.0 232.7 5.7 11.4 37.7 166 Would you bet on anyone else on that list having a sub 800 OPS? I know I sure as hell wouldn't. Schwarber is the only one you could argue against. Moncada very clearly, with his contact authority, would be a very good be to ops more than 800 every year he continues to hit the ball this hard. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poppysox Posted June 11, 2019 Share Posted June 11, 2019 7 hours ago, raBBit said: Moncada's line since this post: .381/.435/.643/.1.078. His OPS went from .811 to .856. So there! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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