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***Day 1 MLB Draft Thread***

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42 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

Considering the value of 1B/DH yes he would have to be special to justify taking him 3rd overall. 1B/DH is the easiest position to fill in baseball and the trade value of most of these guys reflect that.

Unless you are a top, top guy you don't hold much value. The same isn't true conversely for premium positions like CF or SS. Teams have gotten so much smarter realizing cost opportunity/surplus value for those under control and focusing on drafting premium positions. Well except the Sox. As a smaller 1B his defense is never going to be stellar there either. Maybe the hope is he can play the OF. Maybe LF at some point. 

Anyways I've tried to avoid the board because I don't want to be debbie downer but this draft so far and granted it's early who knows maybe Vaughn signs below slot which allows us to draft a couple of hard to sign guys has been disappointing. I was hoping we learned our lesson with Madrigal and sort of instead went for high upside guys and tried to hit it out of the park rather then play it safe.

Instead we went for the safe pick for the college hitter who is already 21 and close to the majors.

 

I love that you continue to post your opinions, day in and day out, as fact. Keep up the good fight I guess?

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5 hours ago, wrathofhahn said:

Considering the value of 1B/DH yes he would have to be special to justify taking him 3rd overall. 1B/DH is the easiest position to fill in baseball and the trade value of most of these guys reflect that.

Unless you are a top, top guy you don't hold much value. The same isn't true conversely for premium positions like CF or SS. Teams have gotten so much smarter realizing cost opportunity/surplus value for those under control and focusing on drafting premium positions. Well except the Sox. As a smaller 1B his defense is never going to be stellar there either. Maybe the hope is he can play the OF. Maybe LF at some point. 

Anyways I've tried to avoid the board because I don't want to be debbie downer but this draft so far and granted it's early who knows maybe Vaughn signs below slot which allows us to draft a couple of hard to sign guys has been disappointing. I was hoping we learned our lesson with Madrigal and sort of instead went for high upside guys and tried to hit it out of the park rather then play it safe.

Instead we went for the safe pick for the college hitter who is already 21 and close to the majors.

 

Most 1st rounders don't get a single WAR. If he's a MLB regular it's a good pick

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I just know that when Vaughn is anchoring our lineup in playoff series two years from now I will want to stand up and cheer every bomb...but every time I do I’ll remember “but he only plays first base” and I’ll slump back in my chair dejectedly.

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8 hours ago, Chisoxfn said:

I am okay with this. I believe the Sox know how to draft and develop pitching. 

Their record of drafting starting pitchers since 2010 is pretty much terrible. An injured Rodon, Chris Bassitt, and? You have to add in 2010 and Chris Sale to make it look decent.

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22 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Their record of drafting starting pitchers since 2010 is pretty much terrible. An injured Rodon, Chris Bassitt, and? You have to add in 2010 and Chris Sale to make it look decent.

Their drafting of hitters or pitchers has been abysmal, about 30 players a year for all these years and basically nothing, no one can defend them.

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11 hours ago, justBLAZE said:

Has my guy @Y2Jimmy0 spoken yet? Been pushin Abrams to Sox for weeeeeeeks!

I liked the idea of going with CJ Abrams underslot and adding multiple prep talents. I'm fine with Vaughn though. It's tough to be upset about adding one of the best hitters in the class. 

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Vaughn continues Chicago’s run on college bats under Kenny Williams and Rick Hahn. We heard if they had cut at three (which they likely won’t with Vaughn), it would have been in anticipation of taking a prep arm at 45, and they got one in Thompson anyway. We were a bit lower on him, as his stuff that flashed plus over the summer was less dynamic this spring. Some clubs thought he may have plateaued. That said, he’s still a long-limbed teenager with a great delivery who has been into the mid-90s for years.

^ fangraphs writeup on Day 1.

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1 hour ago, Jake said:

Most 1st rounders don't get a single WAR. If he's a MLB regular it's a good pick

I haven't seen anyone do this analysis in a couple years but I don't think the stats have changed much since 2014. Prior to a player hitting free agency, on average for a #3 pick, you expect the player to accumulate ~7 fWAR. That's of course the average of guys who bust completely, Carlos Rodons who are ok but fall apart, and your Manny Machados who are excellent. But let's focus on the average for a moment.

We have Vaughn's control for 6 years. What would it take for him to put up ~7 fWAR? At 1b, that's not that far off from the 2018-2019 Jose Abreu pace so I'm going to use his numbers. If Vaughn can put up a .810-.820 OPS and is moderate at fielding, that's a 110 or so wRC+, if he did that for 6 years he would be an average or slightly above average #3 pick. 

How much value would the White Sox find in having another guy putting up current Jose Abreu numbers in their lineup? I'd say...a lot. That would make him a top 5 first baseman in the AL. We might not be great at that position, but we'd be getting good solid production there and we'd be doing it cheaply.

More than that, maybe one of the guys like Abrams will turn out to outhit Vaughn, but that will probably take a few years. The White Sox have a timetable here, Giolito, Moncada, and Lopez hit free agency after 2023, Anderson after 2024. If Abrams turns into a great player at age 22 or 23, that's great, but that's 4 years down the road. We are going to have to pay premium prices for a RF and a left-handed starting pitcher this offseason to fill those roles because we hope this team can make some noise during the next 4 years. If Vaughn is just an average #3 pick, paying a premium price to get him into the lineup sooner is no different than paying a premium price for a free agent right now, and no different from talking about trading Abrams in 2 or 3 years to fill in a hole.

If we can get more than that .810 OPS out of Vaughn, that's even better obviously, but I think that's a reasonable goal, and if he does that then we've just added a solid piece to the middle of the order and filled one hole on a contending team. So if people want to make the case that he won't do that, I'll listen, but there's big value for a team in the White Sox's position to get production sooner rather than later even if his ceiling turns out to be less than Abrams.

Off topic...OMG how good would last year's top free agent signing have looked providing balance in the middle of this order?
1. Robert
2. Anderson
3. Abreu/Vaughn
4. Jiminez
5. Harper
6. Vaughn/Abreu
7. Moncada
8. McCann/Collins
9. Happ/Dozier/Madrigal/Other

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7 hours ago, wrathofhahn said:

Considering the value of 1B/DH yes he would have to be special to justify taking him 3rd overall. 1B/DH is the easiest position to fill in baseball and the trade value of most of these guys reflect that.

Unless you are a top, top guy you don't hold much value. The same isn't true conversely for premium positions like CF or SS. Teams have gotten so much smarter realizing cost opportunity/surplus value for those under control and focusing on drafting premium positions. Well except the Sox. As a smaller 1B his defense is never going to be stellar there either. Maybe the hope is he can play the OF. Maybe LF at some point. 

Anyways I've tried to avoid the board because I don't want to be debbie downer but this draft so far and granted it's early who knows maybe Vaughn signs below slot which allows us to draft a couple of hard to sign guys has been disappointing. I was hoping we learned our lesson with Madrigal and sort of instead went for high upside guys and tried to hit it out of the park rather then play it safe.

Instead we went for the safe pick for the college hitter who is already 21 and close to the majors.

 

I understand wanting a higher ceiling pick but your expectations for the third pick are too high. To add on to what Balta just said, I looked at all the #3 picks since 1980. If we cut it off at 2014 since it's the most recent year a #3 pick has made the majors then 16 of the 35 picks have had 10 or more career fWAR. Of those 16, only 3 of those you can call stars (Manny Machado, Evan Longoria, and Matt Williams) with another 2 very good players in Troy Glaus and Bobby Witt. So there's basically only a 1 in 7 chance that the #3 pick becomes a very good player and stars only come along once a decade. Vaughn doesn't need to be a top ten bat in the league for the pick to be worth it.

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30 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I haven't seen anyone do this analysis in a couple years but I don't think the stats have changed much since 2014. Prior to a player hitting free agency, on average for a #3 pick, you expect the player to accumulate ~7 fWAR. That's of course the average of guys who bust completely, Carlos Rodons who are ok but fall apart, and your Manny Machados who are excellent. But let's focus on the average for a moment.

We have Vaughn's control for 6 years. What would it take for him to put up ~7 fWAR? At 1b, that's not that far off from the 2018-2019 Jose Abreu pace so I'm going to use his numbers. If Vaughn can put up a .810-.820 OPS and is moderate at fielding, that's a 110 or so wRC+, if he did that for 6 years he would be an average or slightly above average #3 pick. 

How much value would the White Sox find in having another guy putting up current Jose Abreu numbers in their lineup? I'd say...a lot. That would make him a top 5 first baseman in the AL. We might not be great at that position, but we'd be getting good solid production there and we'd be doing it cheaply.

More than that, maybe one of the guys like Abrams will turn out to outhit Vaughn, but that will probably take a few years. The White Sox have a timetable here, Giolito, Moncada, and Lopez hit free agency after 2023, Anderson after 2024. If Abrams turns into a great player at age 22 or 23, that's great, but that's 4 years down the road. We are going to have to pay premium prices for a RF and a left-handed starting pitcher this offseason to fill those roles because we hope this team can make some noise during the next 4 years. If Vaughn is just an average #3 pick, paying a premium price to get him into the lineup sooner is no different than paying a premium price for a free agent right now, and no different from talking about trading Abrams in 2 or 3 years to fill in a hole.

If we can get more than that .810 OPS out of Vaughn, that's even better obviously, but I think that's a reasonable goal, and if he does that then we've just added a solid piece to the middle of the order and filled one hole on a contending team. So if people want to make the case that he won't do that, I'll listen, but there's big value for a team in the White Sox's position to get production sooner rather than later even if his ceiling turns out to be less than Abrams.

Off topic...OMG how good would last year's top free agent signing have looked providing balance in the middle of this order?
1. Robert
2. Anderson
3. Abreu/Vaughn
4. Jiminez
5. Harper
6. Vaughn/Abreu
7. Moncada
8. McCann/Collins
9. Happ/Dozier/Madrigal/Other

If Vaughn's defense is neutral it will also boost his WAR vs. an Abreu.

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Wasn’t this one of the weakest pitching drafts, or was it just at the college level? Thompson seems like a project, almost like a poor man’s Alec Hansen.

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39 minutes ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

Wasn’t this one of the weakest pitching drafts, or was it just at the college level? Thompson seems like a project, almost like a poor man’s Alec Hansen.

It was just light at the top from what they are saying.

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9 hours ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

Wasn’t this one of the weakest pitching drafts, or was it just at the college level? Thompson seems like a project, almost like a poor man’s Alec Hansen.

Just about all HS Ps are projects, him and Dalquist should both sign and hopefully have ETAs of 2022-2023

Alec Hansen was absolute filth in college who sucked as a senior due to mechanics

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