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Sleepy Harold

Nick Madrigal promoted to Birmingham

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3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Since Madrigal got into our system he's gone the opposite way over 45% of the time (slightly better, 41% this season). Bryce Harper has been hurt enough by the Shift that Boras called it out for hurting his player, and Harper only pulls the ball 39.3% of the time in his career. So far, shifting Madrigal the opposite way is currently more effective at getting him out than shifting Harper to pull, and I'm not sure how heavily they would use the shift at A-ball.

They absolutely shift on him right now. 3rd baseman way off the line, RF plays really shallow and on the line.

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35 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Since Madrigal got into our system he's gone the opposite way over 45% of the time (slightly better, 41% this season). Bryce Harper has been hurt enough by the Shift that Boras called it out for hurting his player, and Harper only pulls the ball 39.3% of the time in his career. So far, shifting Madrigal the opposite way is currently more effective at getting him out than shifting Harper to pull, and I'm not sure how heavily they would use the shift at A-ball.

That is on ground balls only? 

I believe Harpers pull ground ball rate the past two years is well north of 39%.

Edit: Just looked, and Harper pulled 62% of his ground balls in 2018. Harper hits very few grounders (I believe the Rays experimented with a 4 man outfield against Harper in spring) at 36%, and he frequently hits the ball the other way in the air which skews his pull rate.

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run

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10 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

That is on ground balls only? 

I believe Harpers pull ground ball rate the past two years is well north of 39%.

Edit: Just looked, and Harper pulled 62% of his ground balls in 2018. Harper hits very few grounders (I believe the Rays experimented with a 4 man outfield against Harper in spring) at 36%, and he frequently hits the ball the other way in the air which skews his pull rate.

Unfortunately that double split isn't available for the minors. 

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3 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Dont have the raw numbers, but here's his spray chart from last year.

https://i.imgur.com/AwlNCec_d

Pretty even distribution in the infield.

 

Your link is broken but is this the article you're going for? The IF has points that are too dense you can't tell exactly but there's an awful lot on the RH side. 

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4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Your link is broken but is this the article you're going for? The IF has points that are too dense you can't tell exactly but there's an awful lot on the RH side. 

Yes, that spray chart.

Im not focused too much on the exact breakdown numbers wise. Madrigal has such a high concentration of balls right to the natural short stop position, that someone has to be there. Which means the only way you could shift is by bringing the third baseman over to the right side... which would be fine against a power hitter, but one of the games best bunters whose job is to just get on base? He would destroy teams with the bunt if 3rd base is not occupied, and based on that spray chart you cant move the short stop... so you cant really shift on madrigal 

 

In my opinion

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run

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Now has a batting average and on base percentage comparable to last season but his slugging percentage is .399 this year compared to .348 last year. And that’s at higher levels. Seems he’s developing just fine over the past 12 months since he was drafted.

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11 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Nick’s slash line for the year is now 300/367/410 (OPS 777). With his defense and baserunning, I think that’ll work.

 

That slash line is also with a BABIP of only .298. His ISO this season is .110, last season it was .045.

In his last 24 games between A+ and AA he has this line:

G 24

PA 106

AB 94

R 16

RBI 10

H 34

1B 27

2B 4

3B 1

HR 2

TB 46

BB 8 (7.55%)

K 2 (1.89%)

HBP 2

SF 2

SB 15 (He's stealing a base 35.71% of the time he gets on base)

CS 2

AVG .362

OBP .415

SLG .489

OPS .904

ISO .128 (last year his ISO was a 0.45 across 3 levels, this year it is .110 at A+/AA) 

He also has 11 multi hit games in his last 24 games.

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49 minutes ago, ron883 said:

Maybe I was wrong to be down on the little magician...

Madrigal may very well force himself into a 2020 early callup. The tools outside of power, which could still come along, are rock solid and he could contribute as soon as next season. 

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39 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

Madrigal may very well force himself into a 2020 early callup. The tools outside of power, which could still come along, are rock solid and he could contribute as soon as next season. 

I'm not sure Madrigal couldn't give you as much or more than Yolmer right this second. 

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32 minutes ago, mqr said:

I'm not sure Madrigal couldn't give you as much or more than Yolmer right this second. 

yolmer and leury will be excellent versatile backups.  the Sox can carry an extra 1B/DH type player because of them.

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1 hour ago, mqr said:

I'm not sure Madrigal couldn't give you as much or more than Yolmer right this second. 

This is a good question. If Madrigal got called up today, are the Sox better at 2B? 

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13 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

This is a good question. If Madrigal got called up today, are the Sox better at 2B? 

Yes, but I wouldn't expect Madrigal to be up until early 2020 once they gain the additional season of control. An advanced college bat like his should not need more than 1 1/2 seasons in the minors. 

May/June 2020 is what I'm calling for him. He may even see a little of Charlotte along with Robert to finish 2019 out

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16 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

This is a good question. If Madrigal got called up today, are the Sox better at 2B? 

I wouldn't say they would be better with any level of confidence, but his carrying tools should give you a playable second basemen as is. 

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1 hour ago, mqr said:

I wouldn't say they would be better with any level of confidence, but his carrying tools should give you a playable second basemen as is. 

If Madrigal is not objectively better than Yolmer Sanchez RIGHT NOW, then we never should have selected him in the top 5.

I'm not saying he's ready or to call him up yet, but if he couldn't better Yolmer's numbers I'd be pissed. 

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5 hours ago, Sox Fan In Husker Land said:

 

That slash line is also with a BABIP of only .298. His ISO this season is .110, last season it was .045.

In his last 24 games between A+ and AA he has this line:

G 24

PA 106

AB 94

R 16

RBI 10

H 34

1B 27

2B 4

3B 1

HR 2

TB 46

BB 8 (7.55%)

K 2 (1.89%)

HBP 2

SF 2

SB 15 (He's stealing a base 35.71% of the time he gets on base)

CS 2

AVG .362

OBP .415

SLG .489

OPS .904

ISO .128 (last year his ISO was a 0.45 across 3 levels, this year it is .110 at A+/AA) 

He also has 11 multi hit games in his last 24 games.

I like Madrigal, but I wouldn't point out a .298 BABIP as if it means he has been unlucky. His contact profile doesn't suggest that he'll be anything more than an average BABIP guy.

 

Of course, he'll still be a solid offensive player. Maybe .295/???/.400 with the juiced ball. Depends on what he decides to do when it comes to walks 

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4 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

I like Madrigal, but I wouldn't point out a .298 BABIP as if it means he has been unlucky. His contact profile doesn't suggest that he'll be anything more than an average BABIP guy.

 

Of course, he'll still be a solid offensive player. Maybe .295/???/.400 with the juiced ball. Depends on what he decides to do when it comes to walks 

You honestly believe he'll be an under .300 hitter with his hitting profile in the future?

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1 minute ago, SoxAce said:

You honestly believe he'll be an under .300 hitter with his hitting profile in the future?

I'm assuming a .300 BABIP, negligible HR rate, and negligible strikeout rate (1-6%?). I can see him anywhere between .285-.315. 

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52 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

I like Madrigal, but I wouldn't point out a .298 BABIP as if it means he has been unlucky. His contact profile doesn't suggest that he'll be anything more than an average BABIP guy.

 

Of course, he'll still be a solid offensive player. Maybe .295/???/.400 with the juiced ball. Depends on what he decides to do when it comes to walks 

I wasn't trying to point it out to say he's been unlucky, just merely pointing out that he's a .300 hitter with a .777 OPS with a BABIP that is easily maintainable.

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1 hour ago, Jose Abreu said:

I'm assuming a .300 BABIP, negligible HR rate, and negligible strikeout rate (1-6%?). I can see him anywhere between .285-.315. 

With his speed and hit profile, a normalized league average BABIP would be very surprising.

He profiles with his speed and hit spread to be on the high end of BABIP outcomes.

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1 minute ago, TaylorStSox said:

In 2 weeks, people have gone from "he's a bust" to "call him up." Gotta love fans. 😂

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Welcome to Soxtalk!

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