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Chicago White Sox

The 2020 Rotation - What’s Your Plan?

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52 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

In what world is Puig getting anything close to $20M/year?

His entire take is that while the Sox May spend up to $20M a year on a player, there is no chance that player will be worth it. But also roasts the team for not signing premier FA. Can’t win. And frankly the Sox have earned that skepticism. But there are clearly brighter days ahead.

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Just now, ChiSox59 said:

His entire take is that while the Sox May spend up to $20M a year on a player, there is no chance that player will be worth it. But also roasts the team for not signing premier FA. Can’t win. And frankly the Sox have earned that skepticism. But there are clearly brighter days ahead.

Totally agree.  The core is starting to take shape and we got a fuckton of money to fill the big holes.  I get the skepticism coming off the Machado miss, but the Sox are going to spend and put a legit contender out there in 2018.  Exciting times indeed.

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I don’t see the Sox going after the top guys but if Puig keeps having a down season, he could easily be the steal of next offseason.  He would be an obvious candidate for a bounceback season and would look nice in RF.  He could also hang out with all of his fellow Cubans.  He could be our Jermaine Dye signing part 2.

Edited by Moan4Yoan

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5 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Totally agree.  The core is starting to take shape and we got a fuckton of money to fill the big holes.  I get the skepticism coming off the Machado miss, but the Sox are going to spend and put a legit contender out there in 2018.  Exciting times indeed.

Eh...

I hope you're right man. 

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8 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Totally agree.  The core is starting to take shape and we got a fuckton of money to fill the big holes.  I get the skepticism coming off the Machado miss, but the Sox are going to spend and put a legit contender out there in 2018.  Exciting times indeed.

I can't wait to watch Moncada, Eloy and Robert put up 30+ HR and an OPS north of .850 for the next 5 seasons. Those three have LTP. The Armour Square Arsenal. I love it. I just hope Moncada sticks around past 2023. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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8 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Totally agree.  The core is starting to take shape and we got a fuckton of money to fill the big holes.  I get the skepticism coming off the Machado miss, but the Sox are going to spend and put a legit contender out there in 2018.  Exciting times indeed.

If we can change past rosters can we re-do draft picks?

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7 hours ago, SoxAce said:

Eh...

I hope you're right man. 

I like our current third baseman better anyway...and we still have the money to pay for key improvements in starting pitching and right field.

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7 hours ago, SoxAce said:

Eh...

I hope you're right man. 

Look at our payroll commitments for next year though.  I’d wager Moncada, Anderson, Eloy, McCann, Collins, Leury, Robert, Sanchez, Giolito, Lopez, Kopech, Cease, Rodon, Herrera, Bummer, Fry, & Marshall will cost about ~$40M.  If you assume just a league average payroll (the median = ~$125M), that leaves us nearly $85M to work with this coming offseason.  For perspective, the Sox ‘s payroll peaked around ~$118M right before the rebuild and that’s before quite a bit more TV money (both local & national) cake into the fold.  A $125M payroll figure is a conservative but realistic figure IMO.

If we believe in those guys above that leaves ~$85M to fill the following 8/9 spots:

  • 1B
  • 2B or reserve infielder
  • RF
  • DH or backup catcher (depending on Collins)
  • Reserve infielder
  • TOR starter
  • Mid/back rotation starter or swingman
  • Closer
  • Middle reliever
  • Middle reliever

Give me Grandal ($18M AAV), Wheeler ($19M AAV) & Ozuna ($18M AAV) as my big additions.  Sign someone like Wood or Wacha to a pillow contract ($12M AAV for Wood, less for Wacha) to solidify the rotation.  Sign someone like Betances (coming off an injury but with plus stuff) to a short-term, high salary contract to serve as closer ($12M AAV) and go young with the two middle relief spots (combined $1M).  Let Mendick get a crack at the reserve infielder job ($0.5M).

All in that puts you at ~$120M and the only spot you haven’t addressed is 1B.  Either find a way to free up some payroll (potentially trading Yolmer) and resign Abreu for a year at ~$10M or just find a cheap placeholder Vaughn is ready.  Regardless, that team is playoff caliber and has plenty of depth.  Plus money would come off the books in the coming years to allow us to pay for raises for our young guys.  This is a free agency plan that sets us up nicely for the next four years and buys us time to develop the next wave of talent to fill in cheaply around our hopefully extended young stars.

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8 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

I can't wait to watch Moncada, Eloy and Robert put up 30+ HR and an OPS north of .850 for the next 5 seasons. Those three have LTP. The Armour Square Arsenal. I love it. I just hope Moncada sticks around past 2023. 

Don't appropriate the nickname of the great Joe Borchard.

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13 minutes ago, black jack said:

Nova’s on the team next year!

No, he's not. He is a FA after this season.  

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3 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Look at our payroll commitments for next year though.  I’d wager Moncada, Anderson, Eloy, McCann, Collins, Leury, Robert, Sanchez, Giolito, Lopez, Kopech, Cease, Rodon, Herrera, Bummer, Fry, & Marshall will cost about ~$40M.  If you assume just a league average payroll (the median = ~$125M), that leaves us nearly $85M to work with this coming offseason.  For perspective, the Sox ‘s payroll peaked around ~$118M right before the rebuild and that’s before quite a bit more TV money (both local & national) cake into the fold.  A $125M payroll figure is a conservative but realistic figure IMO.

If we believe in those guys above that leaves ~$85M to fill the following 8/9 spots:

  • 1B
  • 2B or reserve infielder
  • RF
  • DH or backup catcher (depending on Collins)
  • Reserve infielder
  • TOR starter
  • Mid/back rotation starter or swingman
  • Closer
  • Middle reliever
  • Middle reliever

Give me Grandal ($18M AAV), Wheeler ($19M AAV) & Ozuna ($18M AAV) as my big additions.  Sign someone like Wood or Wacha to a pillow contract ($12M AAV for Wood, less for Wacha) to solidify the rotation.  Sign someone like Betances (coming off an injury but with plus stuff) to a short-term, high salary contract to serve as closer ($12M AAV) and go young with the two middle relief spots (combined $1M).  Let Mendick get a crack at the reserve infielder job ($0.5M).

All in that puts you at ~$120M and the only spot you haven’t addressed is 1B.  Either find a way to free up some payroll (potentially trading Yolmer) and resign Abreu for a year at ~$10M or just find a cheap placeholder Vaughn is ready.  Regardless, that team is playoff caliber and has plenty of depth.  Plus money would come off the books in the coming years to allow us to pay for raises for our young guys.  This is a free agency plan that sets us up nicely for the next four years and buys us time to develop the next wave of talent to fill in cheaply around our hopefully extended young stars.

We tend to agree on most things, and I certainly wouldn't be mad if the this was the Sox offseason, but a few questions (mainly nitpicking):   

  • You really think Wheeler is going to get $19M AAV?  Seems like a lot.  I am not against Wheeler by any means, but I probably would prefer other options if he's getting anywhere near $20M AAV.  Just pay the extra $50M spread over 5-6 years and get Cole at that point.
  • I don't think we need both a 2B and a reserve infielder, but definitely need one.  I'd prefer Scooter Gennett to play 2B, and then shift him to RF/super sub when Madrigal is ready. Yolmer is reserve infielder.  
  • I assume the Sox traded Colome in this scenario? I'd be sort of surprised to see him go at this point.  I think the Sox won't get anything exciting enough offered to them next few weeks.  The Sox I think plan to contend in 2020, and to contend you need backend guys.  If the Sox could get someone interesting they could plug into the OF for the rest of this season, or a super high upside youngster, I for sure make the deal. But I think the days of acquiring fringey dudes that take up 40 man spots is over.
  • Grandal, Grandal, Grandal.  YES PLEASE.  He should frankly be the Sox top priority. While I think Cole should be, but I digress. McCann has been great, but I do expect regression.  Grandal doesn't have huge platoon splits, and his a little better LH, but no significant.  A Grandal/McCann/Collins DH and catcher platoon.  YES PLEASE.  
  • I've never been much of Justin Smoak fan, but he could be another option at 1B/DH if the Sox decide to let Abreu walk.  I don't see that happening, but some additional pop from the left side wouldn't hurt.  Smoak would be pretty cheap and couldn't likely get him on a 1 year deal to hold down a spot until Vaughn is ready.   
  • I liked the Ozuna idea a lot more before Vaughn. An OF with Eloy and Ozuna in it scares me.  It'd maybe work for a year, but 1B/DH is just so crowded now - what are you going to do with Ozuna in 2021-23/24.  I was really hoping someone would emerge from the Basabe/Gonzalez/Rutherford/Adolfo foursome to grab 2020 RF by the balls, but that doesn't look like its in the cards. 
  • I do think RF may be a position Hahn tries to get creative with on the trade market and find a controllable OF that hopefully bats LH.  Perhaps clear some of the 40 man by trading a few prospects that are blocked or have stalled out.  Not sure who the target would be (Nimmo / Conforto do make sense), or who we'd look to deal but Dunning, Burdi, Rutherford, Hansen, Lambert, Flores, and Mendick will all need to be added to the 40 man by December 2019, or will be at risk for the rule 5 draft.  There is plenty of fat to chop off the current 40 man (Banuelos, Cordero, Despaigne, Minaya, Osich, Castillo, Rondon, Palka, Jay, Tilson, Engel), but something is going to have to give.  I see Hahn clearing up some of jam by trading some excess for an OF.
  • Ultimately my plan fantasy plan would be: Cole (6/$168M), Grandal (3/$60M), Abreu (2/$20), Gennett (3/$36M), Wood (1/$10M).  Adds about $80M in 2020 payroll.  Sox overpay roll would be in the $125-130M range.  

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Sign me up for Brandon Nimmo. A good buy low candidate as he has had an awful season. I'd try to buy at the TDL, as he's a long term option. Do you think Gonzalez and Hansen would get it done? 

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The time to sign Grandal was last offseason.  He will be one year older (31) but more expensive this time after the season he is having.  Grandal wanted 4-years and $60 million last offseason.  Will he take a 3 year, $45 million deal next offseason?  And depending on how competent Collins looks behind the plate and with the bat, we may be able to live with a platoon of McCann and Collins.

Edited by Moan4Yoan

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3 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Sign me up for Brandon Nimmo. A good buy low candidate as he has had an awful season. I'd try to buy at the TDL, as he's a long term option. Do you think Gonzalez and Hansen would get it done? 

I like Nimmo alot as a target, just wonder if the Mets are interested in trading him right now.  He's struggled with a bulging disc is his neck all season.  But he's a great fit as LH stick with a career OBP of .383.  Yes please.

I'd give them their pick of Gonzalez/Basabe/Rutherford, plus pick of Hansen/Lambert/Flores, plus a 40 man throw in they can use in the OF this season (Tilson, Cordell, Engel, Palka).  Not sure if that is enough though.  They'd probably ask for something like Dunning, Walker and Basabe.  

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I'd probably plan on McCann/Collins and spend that Grandal money elsewhere.  Bigger holes to worry about.  

Edited by bighurt574

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5 minutes ago, Moan4Yoan said:

The time to sign Grandal was last offseason.  He will be one year older (31) but more expensive this time after the season he is having.  Grandal wanted 4-years and $60 million last year.  Will he take a 3 year deal next offseason?  Depending on how Collins looks behind the plate, we may be able to live with McCann and Collins

Its worked out OK for the Sox.  I agree last offseason was the time to get him, but had they done that we wouldn't have McCann at dirt cheap for 2 years, and that has become an enormous value.  Thankfully we can still have Grandal + McCann.  

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13 hours ago, BackDoorBreach said:

SiGn 36 y3Ar oLd CoLe HamMeLs

Yep. Hamels on a two year deal sounds like a fantastic idea. Sox need a dependable veteran lefty in the rotation. 

Bumgardner and Cole are both pipedreams as JR does not believe in handing out 100 million dollar contracts to pitchers. 

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48 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Sign me up for Brandon Nimmo. A good buy low candidate as he has had an awful season. I'd try to buy at the TDL, as he's a long term option. Do you think Gonzalez and Hansen would get it done? 

Isn't he pretty seriously hurt at the moment?

And who knows, it's the Mets, they might take Alonso for him.

Edited by mqr

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8 minutes ago, mqr said:

Isn't he pretty seriously hurt at the moment?

That's why he is a buy low candidate. Send them Dunning and Basabe or something like that. 

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14 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

His entire take is that while the Sox May spend up to $20M a year on a player, there is no chance that player will be worth it. But also roasts the team for not signing premier FA. Can’t win. And frankly the Sox have earned that skepticism. But there are clearly brighter days ahead.

My take is that our young core is special and will get more expensive as the years go by and with arb years. We are in position to sign a big time pitcher and a solid bat this offseason as well as fill other positional needs with good talent. The White Sox have broken down myths during this rebuild, but still have not paid a player more than 75 million. We had a chance to change this last year and did not, so why would it change now when salaries will go up this year? Middle to lower tier guys have not worked out for us and have cost a lot of money. I don't want to pay big money on guys to be average unless we get a big fish, in which case we can take chances on guys who've been given up on. We aren't the Yankees and can't spend freely, but acquiring someone like Cole shouldn't be a problem. 

Edited by SonofaRoache
  • Haha 1

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1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

Its worked out OK for the Sox.  I agree last offseason was the time to get him, but had they done that we wouldn't have McCann at dirt cheap for 2 years, and that has become an enormous value.  Thankfully we can still have Grandal + McCann.  

I’m really torn on signing Grandal. On one hand, it seems like a no brainer to want that bat in the lineup at a position like catcher. But I love McCann behind the plate, and I’m not talking about his offense. He has those intangibles that we haven’t seen in a catcher since AJ. I want him catching our pitchers at least 60% of the time next year, and I want to extend him beyond that. 

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2 hours ago, SonofaRoache said:

My take is that our young core is special and will get more expensive as the years go by and with arb years. We are in position to sign a big time pitcher and a solid bat this offseason as well as fill other positional needs with good talent. The White Sox have broken down myths during this rebuild, but still have not paid a player more than 75 million. We had a chance to change this last year and did not, so why would it change now when salaries will go up this year? Middle to lower tier guys have not worked out for us and have cost a lot of money. I don't want to pay big money on guys to be average unless we get a big fish, in which case we can take chances on guys who've been given up on. We aren't the Yankees and can't spend freely, but acquiring someone like Cole shouldn't be a problem. 

I agree it shouldn't be a problem, and I suspect we'll see the Sox make a splash in FA this winter.  As has been laid out, there is clearly plenty of money to spend. 

In regard to the red - none of the Sox young players are getting to arb for a couple more seasons.  No one important is getting meaningfully more expensive next season.  The Sox did have the chance to change their lack of signing a major FA last offseason, but they also were at best a .500 team this season, and it made sense (IMO) to note give Machado or Harper a blank check.  The Sox are clearly much closer to being a playoff team in 2020 as opposed to 2019.  

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4 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

No, he's not. He is a FA after this season.  

It was a joke.  

Farmer once said "He's on the team next year" about some September call up a few years ago.

Nova had a good game so I did the Farmer line. 

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