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Thomas_Ventura_Roberts

Two Sides to the Trade & Free Agent Coin

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On ‎7‎/‎4‎/‎2019 at 8:37 AM, michelangelosmonkey said:

Cole Hamels was virtually identical to Shields (former ace, 34 years old, 10+ ERA over the 5 starts before the trade, owed $20 mill a year for several years) after the trade he put up a 6 WAR over his next 30 starts.  If Shields had done that in 2016 with the generational greatness of Sale, Quintana with a higher WAR than Sale that year, Rodon soaring through the second half with a 7-3 record and a three man bullpen putting up a 5+ WAR... a wild card and hot play off run could have led to a 2015esque World Series. 

 I understand your argument, I do.

 However, I don't tend to construct my rationale for trades based around the rare exceptions like Hamels. With most pitchers, when they're finished... they stay finished. For every one Cole Hamels, there's a hundred James Shields. It's very rare that a pitcher experiences the rapid turnaround that Hamels did at age 34. 

 

Edited by Richie

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1 minute ago, Richie said:

 I understand the argument. However, I don't tend to construct my rationale for trades based around the rare exceptions like Hamels. With most pitchers, when they're finished... they stay finished. For every one Cole Hamels, there's a hundred James Shields. 

 

You also had Hamels going from the AL and a launching pad for a home park to an NL team in a pretty even offensive home field.  Shields was the exact opposite of that.

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1 hour ago, greg775 said:

In answer to your question, you can't move on from a trade that bad. It also is the same in the draft. Remember Durant vs. Oden? The GM that took Oden got fired after it was obvious Durant was Durant and Oden was unfortunately (because of injury) an all time bust. You can't ever forget a trade as bad as the Tatis trade because it's sports. The trade was that bad it can't be forgotten .... The good news is the Eloy trade is another one that will never be forgotten and that's on the good ledger. Both trades will go down in infamy. Because we're talking sports here, both trades will be remembered forever.

Completely agree Greg. Not all trades can be forgotten. That trade may be so absolutely bad that it's an all timer and unforgettable one. 

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15 minutes ago, fathom said:

You also had Hamels going from the AL and a launching pad for a home park to an NL team in a pretty even offensive home field.  Shields was the exact opposite of that.

Verlander in 2015 looked done. 32.  5-8, velocity down, WHIP up.  It's not absurd to gamble on a past ace.   And buying low is a strategy.  After all Shields only cost the greatest player to ever play the game.  

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On 7/4/2019 at 7:37 AM, michelangelosmonkey said:

Cole Hamels was virtually identical to Shields (former ace, 34 years old, 10+ ERA over the 5 starts before the trade, owed $20 mill a year for several years) after the trade he put up a 6 WAR over his next 30 starts.  If Shields had done that in 2016 with the generational greatness of Sale, Quintana with a higher WAR than Sale that year, 

Holy shit, you're actually falling all over yourself to conflate the former NLCS and WS MVP, 4-time All Star, 5 time 4+ fWAR [once 5+ fWAR] Cole Hamels,

to

the vastly-overrated, only 1 All Star Appearance, 2-time 4+ fWAR [NEVER 5+ fWAR] James Fucking Shields? Seriously?

 

I get that you want to defend this trade at all costs, but take the loss on this one. In NO WAY was James Shields ever an "Ace," and he was a fetid pile of shit [so stated by San Diego's owner] when this dumb front office traded for him. Dude, just stop.

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4 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Verlander in 2015 looked done. 32.  5-8, velocity down, WHIP up.  It's not absurd to gamble on a past ace.   And buying low is a strategy.  After all Shields only cost the greatest player to ever play the game.  

I watched Verlander that entire season (I live in Detroit). He never looked done. He was pitching through a hamstring issue. He looked like a guy who was pitching hurt. It was very different. A lot of people speculated that he may break out when he got healthy and went elsewhere. 

Also, again... The Hamels, Verlander talk. You guys are bringing up the rare exceptions. That's not what you base your rationale around for trades. 

Edited by Richie

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6 hours ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Holy shit, you're actually falling all over yourself to conflate the former NLCS and WS MVP, 4-time All Star, 5 time 4+ fWAR [once 5+ fWAR] Cole Hamels,

to

the vastly-overrated, only 1 All Star Appearance, 2-time 4+ fWAR [NEVER 5+ fWAR] James Fucking Shields? Seriously?

 

I get that you want to defend this trade at all costs, but take the loss on this one. In NO WAY was James Shields ever an "Ace," and he was a fetid pile of shit [so stated by San Diego's owner] when this dumb front office traded for him. Dude, just stop.

I'm not falling all over myself.  I'm merely saying that at the time it was not the most ridiculous trade ever.  Trading a burned out prospect and a lottery ticket (that happened to become a $100,000,000 lottery winner) for a former very good pitcher is often done and sometimes the pitcher turns it around.  For you to suggest Cole Hamels was Cy Young and Shields was garbage...and most of your evidence is Hamels winning more popularity contests and being hot in the 2008 playoffs and using "shit" and "fuck" and lots of questions marks doesn't make it true.   At his peak Hamels was better than Shields but Shields pitched in the AL East as TBR best pitcher and Hamels in the NL East behind the great Roy Halladay .  The five years prior to the trade Shields had 18.3 WAR and Hamels had 18.9.  Shields was making $21 million a year, Hamels $23.  In their 34th year they were terrible...Hamels with the five game stretch of 10+ ERA immediately before the trade.   I don't think the comparison is out of line.  But honestly...You win.  Go back to the daily self flagellation about one trade that turned out bad and how management is stupid and everything is horrible and it will be horrible forever.    

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On 7/4/2019 at 12:38 PM, michelangelosmonkey said:

I filled the entire lineup, pitching staff and closer with guys 26 and under with star potential...and I got crap.  I added a half dozen more and you tell me I need to find better names.  Ok...Steele Walker, Gavin Sheets, Konnor Pilkington, Tyler Johnson, Luis Gonzalez, Jake Burger...oh wait...some of those guys have had a bad 40 games...they are trash (Hansen, like Giolito will never amount to anything.  Steele Walker, like Moncado will never develop power, Collins like Tyler Flowers will never be a quality catcher).  The White Sox are on the precipice  of something amazing and all half the board wants to do is complain about a 17 year old guy that was not in the top 30 international prospects in the year we signed him that became great.  Honestly...we don't spend enough time complaining about the draft where we didn't take Trout.     

If it makes you feel better, Yoan4Moan is a Cubs fan troll who's been banned under other screen names. Jerry kicked Lip's dog in the 80's or something and he hasn't said anything positive on these boards since 2001.  If you can actually make it through an entire Caulfield ramble, you might actually be crazy too. If you ignore those 3, the board starts making a lot more sense. Carry on. 

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12 hours ago, greg775 said:

In answer to your question, you can't move on from a trade that bad. It also is the same in the draft. Remember Durant vs. Oden? The GM that took Oden got fired after it was obvious Durant was Durant and Oden was unfortunately (because of injury) an all time bust. You can't ever forget a trade as bad as the Tatis trade because it's sports. The trade was that bad it can't be forgotten .... The good news is the Eloy trade is another one that will never be forgotten and that's on the good ledger. Both trades will go down in infamy. Because we're talking sports here, both trades will be remembered forever.

There is a Taoist story of an old farmer who had worked his crops for many years. One day his horse ran away. Upon hearing the news, his neighbors came to visit. "Such bad luck," they said sympathetically. "May be," the farmer replied.

The next morning the horse returned, bringing with it three other wild horses. "How wonderful," the neighbors exclaimed. "May be," replied the old man.

The following day, his son tried to ride one of the untamed horses, was thrown, and broke his leg. The neighbors again came to offer their sympathy on his misfortune. "May be," answered the farmer.

The day after, military officials came to the village to draft young men into the army. Seeing that the son's leg was broken, they passed him by. The neighbors congratulated the farmer on how well things had turned out. "May be," said the farmer.

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I’m not sure the behavioral economics is main driver here, since there was not that much equity built up in Tatis pre trade. 

The main issue is it was terrible process. It’s easier to live with Matt Davidson not living up to the hope because it was good process. The Sox trading out a young trade chip just one month before apparently deciding to start a rebuild, and when it was clear the team was not viable at time of trade, was poor. Chisoxfn made this case at the time.

Now, is this the 99th percentile outcome? Absolutely, but it hurts worse because it was such a pointless trade. It was not Hanley for Beckett.

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No one knew how bad or good the Tatis trade was because he had never played an inning as a pro before he was traded. Of course it was an awful trade, but the White Sox were not alone in underestimating him. It isn’t like he signed for a ton of money. He wasn’t ranked in the top 15 for international signings. The one problem I had was why the team placed such an urgency on trading for a guy you hoped would be a #4 starter? If they had waited another couple of weeks ,Tatis gets into uniform and maybe you have a different view of his availability, and Shields gets pounded a couple more times so maybe either the interest or price tag or both go down in him.

One thing to keep in mind when thinking about these 15-17 year old international prospects, besides their age is something Buddy Bell mentioned during a Soxfest seminar. They don’t get to see these guys actually play many games. They are all about the showcases.  So many really have no idea how to run the bases or which base to throw to etc...I think that is why former MLB offspring stand out, you have to think with their exposure they are probably more advanced in those ways than their peers.

Edited by Dick Allen

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In response to Dick Allen, I seem to remember the Sox wanting Shields quickly to improve their rotation.  Wasn’t Erik Johnson in the rotation at the time?  Also, the Padres initially requested Tim Anderson but settled for Tatis Jr.  I guess the trade would have been disastrous whichever way they went.

https://www.sbnation.com/2016/6/4/11858938/james-shields-trade-white-sox-padres

“The Padres receive right-handed pitcher Erik Johnson and infielder Fernando Tatis Jr. in exchange for Shields and cash in return.  Chicago refused to part with shortstop Tim Anderson, their top prospect, per Jon Heyman.

The White Sox entered Saturday at 29-26, 1½ games out of first place in the American League Central, though they are just 2-8 in their last 10 games.”

Edited by Moan4Yoan

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17 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

No one knew how bad or good the Tatis trade was because he had never played an inning as a pro before he was traded. Of course it was an awful trade, but the White Sox were not alone in underestimating him. It isn’t like he signed for a ton of money. He wasn’t ranked in the top 15 for international signings. The one problem I had was why the team placed such an urgency on trading for a guy you hoped would be a #4 starter? If they had waited another couple of weeks ,Tatis gets into uniform and maybe you have a different view of his availability, and Shields gets pounded a couple more times so maybe either the interest or price tag or both go down in him.

One thing to keep in mind when thinking about these 15-17 year old international prospects, besides their age is something Buddy Bell mentioned during a Soxfest seminar. They don’t get to see these guys actually play many games. They are all about the showcases.  So many really have no idea how to run the bases or which base to throw to etc...I think that is why former MLB offspring stand out, you have to think with their exposure they are probably more advanced in those ways than their peers.

The Padres’ actually lasered in on Tatis because he was playing against their team in AZ in extended spring and more of their scouts were in attendance...ironically, his breakout game that started to really put him on the map with the Keith Laws of the world was against the White Sox right after he’d been traded.

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2 hours ago, TaylorStSox said:

If it makes you feel better, Yoan4Moan is a Cubs fan troll who's been banned under other screen names. Jerry kicked Lip's dog in the 80's or something and he hasn't said anything positive on these boards since 2001.  If you can actually make it through an entire Caulfield ramble, you might actually be crazy too. If you ignore those 3, the board starts making a lot more sense. Carry on. 

Of course, then, there’s the obvious irony in that either Yoan4Moan or Lip’s worst posts are still infinitely more insightful, interesting, and far better thought out than any of what would be considered your best posts.  Go figure.  

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26 minutes ago, Fan O'Faust said:

Of course, then, there’s the obvious irony in that either Yoan4Moan or Lip’s worst posts are still infinitely more insightful, interesting, and far better thought out than any of what would be considered your best posts.  Go figure.  

....

Edited by default

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2 hours ago, default said:

There is a Taoist story of an old farmer who had worked his crops for many years. One day his horse ran away. Upon hearing the news, his neighbors came to visit. "Such bad luck," they said sympathetically. "May be," the farmer replied.

The next morning the horse returned, bringing with it three other wild horses. "How wonderful," the neighbors exclaimed. "May be," replied the old man.

The following day, his son tried to ride one of the untamed horses, was thrown, and broke his leg. The neighbors again came to offer their sympathy on his misfortune. "May be," answered the farmer.

The day after, military officials came to the village to draft young men into the army. Seeing that the son's leg was broken, they passed him by. The neighbors congratulated the farmer on how well things had turned out. "May be," said the farmer.

You win some and you lose some.  Sometime you don't know if your winning or losing.  That's life.

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30 minutes ago, Fan O'Faust said:

Of course, then, there’s the obvious irony in that either Yoan4Moan or Lip’s worst posts are still infinitely more insightful, interesting, and far better thought out than any of what would be considered your best posts.  Go figure.  

no

 

If you haven't figured it out by now, default = moan4yoan = tomplongo. You got to keep up with the trolling. 

Edited by TaylorStSox

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On 7/3/2019 at 11:36 PM, Lip Man 1 said:

Simple answer...When the Sox start winning and acting like a major league organization. When (if) that happens losing Tatis Jr. will hurt but if the Sox are 20 games over and in the middle of a pennant race it won't hurt as much.

Until then, you are going to hear about it...often.

They signed this guy and had no clue what they were giving up - only to say he was just 17. 

If you're categorically as bad at talent evaluation as Kenny-Hahn, this was bound to happen.

This is the baseball side of Aldridge for Thomas.

Although I fear it may be the Cubs answer to Brock for Brolio given it was a future HOF shortstop traded for an otherwise forgettable pitcher.

This could actually be worse given all the millions of dollars wasted on that forgettable pitcher.

This trade guarantees Hahn will never run another sports organization. No MBA program can teach talent evaluation.

 

Edited by GradMc

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22 minutes ago, GradMc said:

They signed this guy and had no clue what they were giving up - only to say he was just 17. 

If you're categorically as bad at talent evaluation as Kenny-Hahn, this was bound to happen.

This is the baseball side of Aldridge for Thomas.

Although I fear it may be the Cubs answer to Brock for Brolio given it was a future HOF shortstop traded for an otherwise forgettable pitcher.

This could actually be worse given all the millions of dollars wasted on that forgettable pitcher.

This trade guarantees Hahn will never run another sports organization. No MBA program can teach talent evaluation.

 

I think Rick gets plenty of help from Kenny in the talent evaluation department.

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29 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

no

 

If you haven't figured it out by now, default = moan4yoan = tomplongo. You got to keep up with the trolling. 

Do everyone a favor: ignore @Fan O'Faust and stop quoting him.

We ignore him to not have to read his trash and this isn't helping.

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1 hour ago, GradMc said:

They signed this guy and had no clue what they were giving up - only to say he was just 17. 

If you're categorically as bad at talent evaluation as Kenny-Hahn, this was bound to happen.

This is the baseball side of Aldridge for Thomas.

Although I fear it may be the Cubs answer to Brock for Brolio given it was a future HOF shortstop traded for an otherwise forgettable pitcher.

This could actually be worse given all the millions of dollars wasted on that forgettable pitcher.

This trade guarantees Hahn will never run another sports organization. No MBA program can teach talent evaluation.

 

I would think Hahn is on the Cubs radar.  It appears the Shields trade may not look as bad as Eloy and Cease for Q in a year or two.  

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1 hour ago, TaylorStSox said:

no

 

If you haven't figured it out by now, default = moan4yoan = tomplongo. You got to keep up with the trolling. 

Haha don’t quit your day job.   Your detective work is lazy, at best.

Edited by default

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15 hours ago, Jerksticks said:

Hamels also left Arlington to go back to the joke league.  That’s worth a point of ERA

Tell that to Quintana, lol. 

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