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Chicago White Sox

Mid-Year Top 10 Prospects

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2 hours ago, danman31 said:

I don't see Madrigal being "merely below average" at power as more likely than Vaughn being a top 5-10 hitter in baseball, to be honest. The way Madrigal swings there's no way he's going to add notable power.

I didn't think this was a controversial take. Listen to Law and Callis talk about Madrigal, and it's the same thing: There's just no path to him having a high OPS. He can hit for high average, walk an OK amount and be a slap hitter while being a good baserunner and very good fielder. That's still a limited ceiling though.

Thank God he CAN’T have a high OPS.  That would absolutely ruin everything that is good about him.  

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45 minutes ago, mqr said:

Yeah that fair. I just mean neither guy has the seemingly unlimited ceiling a Moncada, Robert or even Eloy has

See, this take confuses me a bit.  Eloy's value is entirely his bat.  Just like Vaughn's.  Robert and Moncada can both provide huge value with the glove and their legs.  Eloy is a bat.  Vaughn is a bat.  In my eyes, at least, there isn't much difference between what a lumbering 1B can provide, and the value a lumbering LF can provide.  Even if Eloy becomes a good fielder, it is hard for a LF to provide that much excess value.  He'd have to be Alex Gordon. 

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3 hours ago, bmags said:

I don’t really know how to manage the likelihood’s. But what Alonso is doing in NY makes me say that yes, while forecasting a player to be a top 15 hitter in baseball is silly, saying Vaughn’s ceiling is as a top hitter is what I think his ceiling is, and Alonso certainly at his ceiling is at a 9 WAR pace.

Now, the issue may be Vaughn’s power potential. But I do think even looking at hoskins he’s on pace for 4.5 on a very good year.

Madrigal I just can’t really see topping 6 wins in his best year. Basically Eaton’s best year which means finding that power.

Rod Carew had a five year period where he averaged 8 WAR and 8 home runs.   

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2 hours ago, danman31 said:

I don't see Madrigal being "merely below average" at power as more likely than Vaughn being a top 5-10 hitter in baseball, to be honest. The way Madrigal swings there's no way he's going to add notable power.

I didn't think this was a controversial take. Listen to Law and Callis talk about Madrigal, and it's the same thing: There's just no path to him having a high OPS. He can hit for high average, walk an OK amount and be a slap hitter while being a good baserunner and very good fielder. That's still a limited ceiling though.

I feel like the following line is not unreasonable to expect from Madrigal, provided he's healthy and becomes a capable ML hitter:

650 PA

210 H

50 2B

15 3B

5 HR

50 BB

35 K

That produces a slashline of .350/.400/.508, which if combined with 50 SB and Gold Glove defense is easily an all-star and probably a 6 fWAR player.

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2 hours ago, Jerksticks said:

Thank God he CAN’T have a high OPS.  That would absolutely ruin everything that is good about him.  

I don't dislike Madrigal as a prospect, but it's funny how he went from criminally underrated to criminally overrated in a month.

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1 minute ago, Dam8610 said:

I feel like the following line is not unreasonable to expect from Madrigal, provided he's healthy and becomes a capable ML hitter:

650 PA

210 H

50 2B

15 3B

5 HR

50 BB

35 K

That produces a slashline of .350/.400/.508, which if combined with 50 SB and Gold Glove defense is easily an all-star and probably a 6 fWAR player.

70 extra base hits?! 70?! The dude had 28 in 500 plate appearances in the minors. You're asking him to double his power as he goes UP to the majors.

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2 hours ago, mqr said:

Yeah that fair. I just mean neither guy has the seemingly unlimited ceiling a Moncada, Robert or even Eloy has. 

One of these things is not like the other; one of these things doesn't belong. 

Moncada and Robert can throw leather and have blazing speed, Eloy can do neither. With the bat, sure, Eloy belongs in the same league as the other two. But as overall baseball players? Moncada and Robert blow Eloy away. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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3 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

What did Blake turn around other than BABIP normalization?  Hopefully, I’m missing something from not getting to see him much this year, but statistically he’s pretty much the same other than some batted ball regression.

  He's turned around everything since end of May. BBR only part of the story.                    

                        G    AVG    AB    R       H    2B    3B    HR    RBI    BB    SO    SB    CS    GIDP    LOB    OBP    SLG
April    AA    21    .156      77    9    12     1      0      2        5        5      24      1      0         3         47      .207     .247
May     AA    21    .216      74    9    16     4      1      1        9        3      17      0      0         5         33      .247     .338
June     AA    27    .365    104    9    38     4      2      1       12      6      26      4      1         3         40      .400     .471
July       AA     7     .345      29    4    10     1      0      1        7       1        9       1      1         0         11      .355     .483

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7 minutes ago, danman31 said:

70 extra base hits?! 70?! The dude had 28 in 500 plate appearances in the minors. You're asking him to double his power as he goes UP to the majors.

Yeah, this line is totally insane. I truly don't think it's possible to hit 50 doubles and only 5 HRs in the current environment, especially when you play your home games at Guaranteed Rate. I do think it's reasonable to project a 170 pound guy to develop more power as he ages and plays with the bouncy ball that is used in the majors. 30 doubles, 5 triples, 10 homers would be towards the higher end of my expectations.

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5 minutes ago, danman31 said:

70 extra base hits?! 70?! The dude had 28 in 500 plate appearances in the minors. You're asking him to double his power as he goes UP to the majors.

Those numbers are a bit crazy, but it’s not really doubling his power.  It’s imagining him getting shit tons of doubles and triples in the majors from skill, not power. 

The people that are able to think about Madrigal outside of the box see Wes Welker leading the league in receptions, but not from jump balls like Randy Moss.   Everyone else sees some dude who should have flamed out in d3 college.  

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1 minute ago, danman31 said:

70 extra base hits?! 70?! The dude had 28 in 500 plate appearances in the minors. You're asking him to double his power as he goes UP to the majors.

In his best years? Yes, if he develops well.

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4 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

Those numbers are a bit crazy, but it’s not really doubling his power.  It’s imagining him getting shit tons of doubles and triples in the majors from skill, not power. 

The people that are able to think about Madrigal outside of the box see Wes Welker leading the league in receptions, but not from jump balls like Randy Moss.   Everyone else sees some dude who should have flamed out in d3 college.  

Guy was a HS and collegiate champion. I don't think we drafted him for his power game. We can win with him and thats what matters. He's a winner and it rubs off on teammates.

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13 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

Those numbers are a bit crazy, but it’s not really doubling his power.  It’s imagining him getting shit tons of doubles and triples in the majors from skill, not power. 

The people that are able to think about Madrigal outside of the box see Wes Welker leading the league in receptions, but not from jump balls like Randy Moss.   Everyone else sees some dude who should have flamed out in d3 college.  

Exactly, he's the only guy I've ever seen have a higher grade placed on his game power than his raw power, and it's because of his style of play. He's going to stretch singles into doubles and doubles into triples if he develops the way we're all hoping he will. I also think he's capable of developing the power to hit 15-20 HR in a season, which could put him on another level.

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21 minutes ago, Flash said:

  He's turned around everything since end of May. BBR only part of the story.                    

                        G    AVG    AB    R       H    2B    3B    HR    RBI    BB    SO    SB    CS    GIDP    LOB    OBP    SLG
April    AA    21    .156      77    9    12     1      0      2        5        5      24      1      0         3         47      .207     .247
May     AA    21    .216      74    9    16     4      1      1        9        3      17      0      0         5         33      .247     .338
June     AA    27    .365    104    9    38     4      2      1       12      6      26      4      1         3         40      .400     .471
July       AA     7     .345      29    4    10     1      0      1        7       1        9       1      1         0         11      .355     .483

First 32 games: 5.6% BB rate, 25.8% K rate, .120 ISO, .220 BABIP, .525 OPS, 51 wRC+

Next 43 games: 4.5% BB rate, 25.0% K rate, .102 ISO, .434 BABIP, .789 OPS, 130 wRC+

The only thing driving his OPS / wRC+ improvement is the normalization of his BABIP.  His core peripherals are more or less the same.  He really hasn’t turned anything around despite a bunch of singles grouped together.

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I like Madrigal but my god people are going to be disappointed with him because of unrealistic expectations. .350 average with a .908 OPS?? 

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9 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

I like Madrigal but my god people are going to be disappointed with him because of unrealistic expectations. .350 average with a .908 OPS?? 

What are realistic expectations for his ceiling?  While I think Dam has gone to the extreme, I think some here are underestimating what he could be capable of.

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Insane expectations.  How in the heck do you not realize this after typing out that slash line?

.350 / .400 / .508 / .908

Seriously?  😮

Edited by Moan4Yoan

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1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

What are realistic expectations for his ceiling?  While I think Dam has gone to the extreme, I think some here are underestimating what he could be capable of.

Ceiling? I don't know enough about his contact profile to estimate a BABIP but maybe somewhere around .330/.380/.480 with good defense? 

More realistically, I think he's a solid .300/.350/.450 guy long-term. 

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3 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

Ceiling? I don't know enough about his contact profile to estimate a BABIP but maybe somewhere around .330/.380/.480 with good defense? 

More realistically, I think he's a solid .300/.350/.450 guy long-term. 

This.

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15 minutes ago, Moan4Yoan said:

Insane expectations.  How in the heck do you not realize this after typing out that slash line?

.350 / .400 / .508 / .908

Seriously?  😮

I seem to remember that Dam couldn't help but to say Madrigal was Altuve at every point leading up to the draft. 

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I see I missed the memo that everyone was getting wasted tonight and pretending Madrigal got to play 81 games in Colorado :)

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I think reasonable career slash is probably .290/.330/.430 with 30 SBs a season and strong defense at 2B. That’s probably a solid 2.5 to 4 WAR player right there, which is Sox expected him to be when he was drafted. At his peak I think you could expect a few .850 seasons and all star appearances.

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5 hours ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

I think reasonable career slash is probably .290/.330/.430 with 30 SBs a season and strong defense at 2B. That’s probably a solid 2.5 to 4 WAR player right there, which is Sox expected him to be when he was drafted. At his peak I think you could expect a few .850 seasons and all star appearances.

I just don’t see a .290 batting average being reasonable for him upon maturity.  To me, that is a downside case and suggests a BABIP in the .290 to .300 range (which is league average or slightly below).  Given his contact profile & speed, that seems ridiculously low.

 

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7 hours ago, fathom said:

I see I missed the memo that everyone was getting wasted tonight and pretending Madrigal got to play 81 games in Colorado :)

and his other 81 games on the moon.  :cheers

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52 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I just don’t see a .290 batting average being reasonable for him upon maturity.  To me, that is a downside case and suggests a BABIP in the .290 to .300 range (which is league average or slightly below).  Given his contact profile & speed, that seems ridiculously low.

 

.290 is career BA and I think we could expect some peak seasons north of .320. If he does even better than that great. I think his inability to tap into any power and lifting the ball the first few years will drag his BA and BABIP down a bit.

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